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The Political Thread

Started by The Legendary Shark, 09 April, 2010, 03:59:03 PM

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IndigoPrime

Quote from: Old Tankie on 17 March, 2017, 10:14:49 AM
OK, if that's what you think, let the moderators decide, if they agree with you I will leave the forum.
You are not in breach of any rules, from what I can tell, so I don't know where that comment arrived from. Jim's point is that your responses to any reasoned concerns appear to be "that hasn't happened yet". Time may yet prove you to be right, if they never happen, but people are (in my opinion, rightly) concerned that the department for leaving the EU basically hasn't done any work on key areas, lacks contingency plans, and seems to now be offhandedly saying "yeah, you're probably right" when asked about the UK leaving all existing frameworks (now even including Open Skies and EHIC).

Steven Denton

Quote from: Old Tankie on 17 March, 2017, 09:37:10 AM
So Hawkmumbler, when did the pound drop below parity with the dollar since the referendum?

As has been pointed out before The Leave vote has not had the often cited predictions from the run up to the referendum but that may well be because the predictions were based on David Cameron instantly triggering article 50 like he said he would*, which he didn't. repeatedly citing the specific negative perditions to hand wave away the actual negative impact without context is either ignorant or disingenuous.

*During the campaign, Prime Minister David Cameron said he would go to Brussels immediately after the referendum to trigger Article 50,

Old Tankie

Well, if I haven't broken any rules, I shall carry on in my own merry way! Hasn't the stock market done well since the referendum.

IndigoPrime

#12453
It is probably worth noting that in the run-up to the referendum, a great many economists were predicting a worst-case scenario of $1.20. As Steven noted, this was based on an immediate Article 50 notification. Cameron didn't do that, lessening the impact and drawing it out over a longer time. (This is also why many people probably don't realise the impact to date – it's happened very slowly.) Regardless, Sterling has already danced with that low bar, and seems to have settled in the low $1.20s, which has impacted on costs across every sector within the UK.

The 'below parity' thinking was not at all common prior to the referendum, but has been more so since, largely on the basis that economists are surprised how poorly Sterling has done BEFORE Article 50 has even been triggered. Also, the long-term prospects are bleak, too, given that the same estimates (which, note, were actually optimistic, unless Article 50 magically improves Sterling's fortunes) paint a permanent resting place for Sterling somewhere around $1.05 (i.e. permanently around the all-time historic low).

So, yes, the $1=£1 scenario might never come to pass, but $1.25=£1 is more or less where we're at now, meaning everything from iPhones and Lego to food and fuel has crept up in price.

Quote from: Old Tankie on 17 March, 2017, 11:33:45 AM
Well, if I haven't broken any rules, I shall carry on in my own merry way! Hasn't the stock market done well since the referendum.
On the basis of Sterling being worth less, yes. I'm sure the average person now struggling to make ends meet will be thrilled that some traders are now worth more.

EDIT: This Indy piece sums the stock market situation up quite well. Notably, though, even The Telegraph is cautious about placing too much emphasis on the FTSE 250.

Old Tankie

Average people don't have pension plans invested in the stock market then?

Jim_Campbell

Quote from: Old Tankie on 17 March, 2017, 11:43:18 AM
Average people don't have pension plans invested in the stock market then?

And that's putting food on their plates is it?
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Old Tankie


Steven Denton

Quote from: Old Tankie on 17 March, 2017, 11:46:07 AM
Well, yes.

Except no, because the apparent rise is due to the weaker pound, the stocks are actually worth less. With the increased cost of living already the money is already goes less far. so it's actually taking food off the table.

Old Tankie

Inflation is below Bank of England target.

Goaty

Quote from: Old Tankie on 17 March, 2017, 12:03:40 PM
Inflation is below Bank of England target.

Yeah but you on benefits as you said before.

Old Tankie

What does that comment even mean?

Hawkmumbler


Old Tankie

So people don't spend their pensions on food then, that's where I've been going wrong.

Jim_Campbell

Quote from: Old Tankie on 17 March, 2017, 12:03:40 PM
Inflation is below Bank of England target.

The inflation figure is an average. If the prices of some things go down while some others go up the rate is affected in a way that isn't reflected in people's standard of living. For example, a fall in the price of e-books and flat-screen TVs isn't much help if the prices of food and domestic energy goes up (which they are doing), because keeping warm and feeding yourself are areas where it's harder to economise.
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Less-Awesome-Artist: Scribbles.

Old Tankie

I agree with that Jim. I'm long term disabled, you don't have to tell me about rising heating costs.