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The Political Thread

Started by The Legendary Shark, 09 April, 2010, 03:59:03 PM

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Frank

Quote from: Frank on 04 October, 2019, 07:49:11 PM
No honest person can plausibly claim to understand the infinite variables and branching domino rallies of cause and effect of something so complex and without precedent.

I see now I was wrong.



radiator

#16201
There is obviously a deliberate pattern and strategy playing out here that encompasses things like Brexit, but what I'm really trying to wrap my head around at the moment is; what is the endgame here? What is the long term goal? Who stands to profit from overturning decades of (relative) peace and international co-operation and reverting to a pre-WWII setup of isolationist, bickering (presumably warring) Nationalist states?

How is that a good outcome for anyone, even the likes of the Mercers and the Steve Bannons of the world?

Genuine question.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/24/us/politics/trump-nationalism-united-nations.html

JOE SOAP

Quote from: Frank on 04 October, 2019, 07:16:31 PM
Brexit is God's way of making the British finally understand what went wrong in Northern Ireland.

If, because of Brexit, Ireland eventually ends up doing a swapsy where it loses northern partition only for Britain to gain its own iteration with Scotland, we'll be able to power the national grid with the sheer power of irony.

JayzusB.Christ

Quote from: Frank on 04 October, 2019, 08:27:26 PM
Quote from: Frank on 04 October, 2019, 07:49:11 PM
No honest person can plausibly claim to understand the infinite variables and branching domino rallies of cause and effect of something so complex and without precedent.

I see now I was wrong.

No, it's a fair point. But I just don't think it was a 50 / 50 coin toss, information wise.
"Men will never be free until the last king is strangled with the entrails of the last priest"

Frank

Quote from: JayzusB.Christ on 04 October, 2019, 08:36:13 PM
I just don't think it was a 50 / 50 coin toss, information wise.

It is (present and future tense) a coin flip how things will turn out, mate.



JayzusB.Christ

Quote from: Frank on 04 October, 2019, 08:41:32 PM
Quote from: JayzusB.Christ on 04 October, 2019, 08:36:13 PM
I just don't think it was a 50 / 50 coin toss, information wise.

It is (present and future tense) a coin flip how things will turn out, mate.

Ah, I get you now. Should have read your posts more carefully,  sorry.
"Men will never be free until the last king is strangled with the entrails of the last priest"

Frank

Quote from: JOE SOAP on 04 October, 2019, 08:35:44 PM
Quote from: Frank on 04 October, 2019, 07:16:31 PM
Brexit is God's way of making the British finally understand what went wrong in Northern Ireland.

If, because of Brexit, Ireland eventually ends up doing a swapsy where it loses northern partition only for Britain to gain its own iteration with Scotland, we'll be able to power the national grid with the sheer power of irony.

The Scotland part's inevitable, now. Hopefully not via another idiotic referendum* but through the dull, bureaucratic way Canada and Australia sauntered their way from colony to dominion to independence without anything of any interest happening then or in the century since.

Rather than the thrilling and sexy way your good selves, India and the African lads bid farewell to Empire, with the decades of interesting (in the Chinese curse sense) consequences that follow any liberation struggle.

To bring it back to Brexit, that's how the UK should have disengaged from the EU - slowly, piecemeal, over the course of decades and according to a mutually agreed timetable.


* nobody who's lived through the last two can delude themselves referenda settle anything

TordelBack

#16207
I think you're all being very charitable.

Despite being repeatedly assured that it isn't the case, I see both Brexit and Trump (both acts against the best interests of the majority of their supporters) quite simply as xenophobia manipulated and exploited by cynical shits for personal, political, and probably financial gain.

The fear of the Other, the notion that a sub-human swarm of moral degenerates is sweeping/has swept/will sweep away the life you supposedly value, that your worsening circumstances are the result of your masters appeasing the Others instead of looking after you. Leave/Trump promise they'll put you back in the driving seat and punish the Others.

Make it like it was.  Keep Them away from me. Tell me I'm wise and I'm right.

That's all it is, nothing more complex or arcane than that.

There are of course sane and sensible arguments to be made against the specifics of European integration or the dynastic complicity that makes up the US political class, but these are minority concerns and wholly irrelevant to the popular vote. 

Funt Solo

Quote from: Frank on 04 October, 2019, 07:49:11 PM
Brexit's a coin-toss, which is why the result was basically 50/50.

Just because there are two sides to an argument, it doesn't mean that each has equal validity. Look at my original post today - it was about someone who, rationally, could see economic hardship associated with her decision, and yet also felt that it was good for her children.

There's a dichotomy there. The evidence in the piece demonstrated why the economic hardship was going to occur, but there was no reason given for her belief that it would be good for her children.

So, on the one hand: evidence. On the other: faith. For me, that's exactly 100/0. Far away from 50/50. You can argue that it's 50/50, but without any evidence, you're just whistling into the wind.
++ A-Z ++  coma ++

Professor Bear

Quote from: radiator on 04 October, 2019, 08:01:23 PMThere is a semi-coherent left-wing case in favour of Brexit (often called 'Lexit'*) but to me it all seems rather fanciful (the idea that the EU is all that prevent s the UK from becoming a socialist utopia for example)

This is a rather reductionist reading of what many on this very thread were discussing right before the referendum was even announced: the EU project as a massive federal endeavour with unaccountable actors at the helm of policy construction, the answer to which IIRC was (and remains) "well, we can't fix any of that if we're not in Europe" which is a nice soundbite but doesn't actually answer questions being asked about how TTIP got as far as it did, how Greece was carpetbagged, or why Alan Kurdi had to die.

The leftist crackers on Youtube have been giving some fine content of late, including Canadiamerican I don't know he's one of those Peter Coffin's vid on democracy being a rambling but admirably accessible defence of democracy that takes a lengthy diversion into Brexit territory as an example of how and why democray fails not because of voters, but because of how the version of reality they experience is specifically tailored for them by media companies to reinforce prejudices and engineer financially-exploitable disasters.

TordelBack

Quote from: Professor Bear on 04 October, 2019, 10:28:52 PM...the EU project as a massive federal endeavour with unaccountable actors at the helm of policy construction, the answer to which IIRC was (and remains) "well, we can't fix any of that if we're not in Europe" which is a nice soundbite but doesn't actually answer questions being asked about how TTIP got as far as it did, how Greece was carpetbagged, or why Alan Kurdi had to die.

Quite. And as you point out, very little of this is engaging 52% of the population. These are the kind of discussions we could be having if we weren't dealing with Brexit.

JayzusB.Christ

Wonder how being dead in a ditch is sounding to Johnson right now. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49936352
"Men will never be free until the last king is strangled with the entrails of the last priest"

Frank

Quote from: Funt Solo on 04 October, 2019, 10:20:39 PM
So, on the one hand: evidence. On the other: faith

A useful exercise anyone can try is to think back to the instinctive reaction they had to Brexit.

And ask themselves whether the informed opinion they hold now is any different to the emotional response they felt then.

Curiously, that gut feeling* I experienced four years ago was in perfect accord with the studied, rational position I hold today.


* REMAIN

Funt Solo

Your central argument seems to be that nobody reacts to reason. I entirely disagree with you.
++ A-Z ++  coma ++

Frank


You haven't gone on a Brexit journey then, Funt? None of the evidence you've examined has changed the opinion you, like me, formed seconds after someone changed the G in Grexit to a B?