The Political Thread

[Funt Solo]

I don't doubt that things "will stop working" in the event of Brexit. The question is, why?

People have already answered the why part up above.  In short: trade laws.  It's got fuck all to do with anarchy.

[The Legendary Shark]

You're absolutely right, it's got fuck all to do with anarchy. It's got everything to do with statism.

[Funt Solo]

Reality: this discourse occurred because someone pointed out evidence that a no-deal Brexit would be harmful for the British economy.  You countered that this was "fear-mongering", because you said you think everything will be fine.

So, on the one hand, there are expert economists who say it will be harmful.  On the other hand is you (self-admittedly not an economic expert).

QED, I think. 

(Unless you have new information pertinent to the argument: mentioning that you don't like politicians doesn't count.)

[The Legendary Shark]

I don't think "everything will be fine." I don't think the country's going to be dragged into some Mad Max dystopian nightmare either, though.

[JamesC]

They've just rejected the amendment to take 'no deal' off the table.
Guess that makes May's crappy deal more likely to get through.

[Professor Bear]

[The Enigmatic Dr X]

I normally avoid this thread for fear of causing / taking offence.

I'm clever, I'm educated, I am read up. I just don't have a clue about what is going to happen. I fear the uncertainty of it all. On Brext, my tuppence is:

1. The world is bad enough without deliberately adding to our woes.

2. I worry for politics. At large. I remember strong leaders who had conviction and courage. I thought well of Heseltine when he resigned, of Scargill for taking a stand, of Hague during the Gulf War. With hindsight, even John Major and Neil Kinnock stood for something. Now, our MPs seem to be jobs-worths in the truest sense. They worry for their jobs, but don't do them. Do they have principles and courage?

3. Brexit should have been two referendums. That is the critical mistake in all this. One to ask "Do you want us to negotiate an exit?" and one ask "Here's the deal, do you like it?". Of course, the Tories didn't think it would be a leave vote and so botched the question to appease their right wingers. They didn't think about (care about) the North, which suffers from a general lack of wealth and a fear of unintegrated immigrants.

4. Why did we allow an EU vote to become about non-EU immigration, asylum seekers and NHS cash that doesn't exist? Hell mend us, and hell mend our politicians (see point 2).

5. Brexit, for me, is like a group of people saying "who fancies eating out?". Most say yes. They then disagree on what eating out is: Italian, chippy, Chinese, Indian, Mexican? So, there should have been a second vote on what to eat (see point 3).

6. I am vehemently against a second referendum. While I voted to leave, I see a second referndum as a catastrophe for democracy. You don't like an answer, so you ask again? But if it is a remain, without a proper two step referendum (see point 3) then that is the government dictating the vote - you will keep voting until we get the answer we want. That's a banana republic rabbit hole.

7. And does that mean we can re-open Scottish independence? Can the SNP just keep asking until they get a yes? Is that fair? (But why not, if it's done for Brexit?).

8. Really? I'd rather a cliff edge than lose democracy.

9. And if we did have Indyref 2, and it was to split, then how is that done? It's been two years for Brexit where there has been a process to break up. The Treaty of Union goes deeper and has no such process. Are we looking at three or four years? A decade? More financial turmoil.

10. All this plays into the hands of those who resent the status quo. That means the disenfranchised and the super-rich vote for change. History shows there's only one winner from that vote.  They don't live in council flats...

11. What of my children? Why does a 90 year old with rose-tinted memories get to vote and create years of chaos that they won't suffer through. Why can't I vote for my children on the shape of the country they will inherit?

All a mess.

[radiator]

Does anyone else think that Farage is secretly crossing his fingers for a second ref? He seems to bring it up all the time. I think he's starting to realise that he'd rather go down in history as the hero of the lost cause than the arsehole that got us into all this mess.

I'm inclined to just wish May's deal goes ahead now. It'll ensure that Leavers and Remainers are equally miserable and unsatisfied, and isn't that the definition of compromise?

[M.I.K.]

Does anyone else think that Farage is secretly crossing his fingers for a second ref? He seems to bring it up all the time.

Yep.

[Jim_Campbell]

I don't think "everything will be fine." I don't think the country's going to be dragged into some Mad Max dystopian nightmare either, though.

1) Nobody said "Mad Max dystopian nightmare".

2) You dismissed as "fearmongering" a number of possible effects of a no-deal Brexit that are logical consequences of the scenario and are agreed as ranging from quite likely to more-or-less-inevitable by experts in their field. You did this whilst admitting that you had little knowledge or understanding of the subject under discussion and when asked on what basis you reached your conclusion, you demanded that people explain the argument to you. It was not an ad hominem to point this out.

[Jim_Campbell]

6. I am vehemently against a second referendum. While I voted to leave, I see a second referndum as a catastrophe for democracy. You don't like an answer, so you ask again? But if it is a remain, without a proper two step referendum (see point 3) then that is the government dictating the vote - you will keep voting until we get the answer we want. That's a banana republic rabbit hole.

I'm assuming you meant "While I voted to remain"...?

I agree with you in principle on the idea of a second referendum. However, in practise, I can't see a way past the current political impasse. The first referendum was practically a textbook example of how not to run a referendum and has left us in a position where parliament has been paralysed by the whole "will of the people" schtick (leaving aside the small fact of the result's illegitimacy) and I can't see anything other than a new set of instructions from "the people" breaking the deadlock. The alternative is to let the clock run down to zero and for us to crash out with no deal, an outcome for which there is definitely no democratic mandate.

On a broader note of principle, I'd have no issue if the price of a second referendum was renewing the mandate by referendum every 10-15 years, assuming that the lessons of this first clusterfuck were properly learned: a threshold set for a clear majority (whatever the usual standard is for major constitutional change); the choice to be between the status quo (EU membership) and a clearly-outlined, detailed proposal for the terms under which we might leave; additionally, if those terms could not be negotiated within a fixed timeframe (say, two years) then they would be abandoned as unworkable/unreasonable and the country would remain, making it incumbent on the leavers to come back with a better/more realistic plan before the next referendum.

[Keef Monkey]

People who vote, on the other hand, believe they do have the right to force people to live how they see fit. They believe it's up to politicians to decide whether they can have insulin or not.

Unfortunately it doesn't matter what any of us believe should be the case, what matters is the reality of the situation. You may not think it's fair that Brexit will lead to medicine shortages, but thinking that won't magically stop it from happening.

The system that you want and that you see as fair doesn't exist, so by voting we're using the system we do have in the hopes of achieving the best result. You've made a choice not to engage with the system but that doesn't make you or anyone else immune to its outcomes.

[Theblazeuk]

There are degrees of shitness between Today and Mad Max.

My personal opinion is taking one step down that ladder of Shitness is unacceptable.

Hopefully that'll be the last time anyone has to answer that stupid hyperbole.

[Hawkmumbler]

To be fair we're about 6 steps up from Mad Max but only 2 from Split Second.

Not sure which is worse to be honest!

[JOE SOAP]

Sammy Wilson can have some US style beef to go with his chippy chips. This is what the ERG want.

US lobby groups for agriculture and pharmaceutical firms want UK standards changed to be closer to those of the US in a post-Brexit trade deal.

The meat lobby wants the sale of growth hormone-fed beef, currently banned in the UK and EU, to be allowed in the UK.

The drugs company lobby wants changes to the NHS drugs approval process to allow it to buy more of US drugs.

They are also asking US officials - who will hold a hearing later - to seek lower tariffs on agricultural goods.
The farming groups say any deal should move away from EU standards, including rules governing genetically modified crops, antibiotics in meats, and pesticides and herbicides, such as glyphosate.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47036119