The Political Thread

judgefloyd · 01 November, 2020, 11:18:49 PM

Quote from: Dandontdare on 01 November, 2020, 01:24:04 PM
Everything I know about Cassowaries comes from FDotM, and everything I know about the AFL comes from Squires

You're on the money on both counts. As you probably know, the Cassowary was so popular he bought it back as Snitty the Psephological Cassowary. Thanks to Mr Dog, I now know Cassowaries kick trees to make the fruit fall out.

Funt Solo · 03 November, 2020, 05:46:17 PM

Fingers crossed over here in US of A land that Spongebob Bidenpants wins the election by a margin significant enough to avoid civil strife. I don't normally head into an election wondering if it'll result in civil war, but this is 2020, so all bets are off.

Dandontdare · 03 November, 2020, 06:11:18 PM

Quote from: Funt Solo on 03 November, 2020, 05:46:17 PM
Fingers crossed over here in US of A land that Spongebob Bidenpants wins the election by a margin significant enough to avoid civil strife. I don't normally head into an election wondering if it'll result in civil war, but this is 2020, so all bets are off.

I wonder if a big margin would be worse than a small one - those fanatical nutjobs may believe a narrow win, but if it's huge it will just convince them that some deepstate fraud has happened (Like Lukashenko claiming a 82% victory in Belarus - no-one was sure if he'd scarpe a win, but NOBODY believed he'd won by that much)

Jim_Campbell · 03 November, 2020, 06:17:11 PM

Quote from: Dandontdare on 03 November, 2020, 06:11:18 PMI wonder if a big margin would be worse than a small one

No. Trump's strategy isn't to win — he doesn't need to. He only needs the result to be close enough to contest it and then it goes to the same courts that Mitch McConnell has spent the last four years packing with Republican appointees at every level.

Funt Solo · 03 November, 2020, 06:32:28 PM

The two-party non-proportional system is messed up - it just begs for corruption and binary thinking.

IndigoPrime · 03 November, 2020, 07:29:28 PM

Biden needs to win by more than one state and for those margins to be reasonable. 538 reckons Trump has a 1 in 10 chance. So presumably we'll all wake up tomorrow and find he's somehow won California. (Being more sensible, I suspect he'll win Florida, because Florida. I hope not though. If Biden takes Florida, Trump's chances drop like a stone. Best thing of the night would be Texas going blue, but I wouldn't bet on that happening until 2028.)

CalHab · 04 November, 2020, 09:25:55 AM

Thoughts with any forumites living in the US. No matter how it goes from here, it's going to be an absolute stommshow.

IndigoPrime · 04 November, 2020, 11:10:41 AM

Yep. The best possible result now all rests on 'late' votes across a few battleground states. At least NE-2 means things can't end up a draw but it's bizarre to think a reasonable outcome could mean the entire election rested on that one electoral college vote. (This would be e.g. ME-2 going red, Biden taking Wi+Ga but Trump getting Mi+PA.)

Lorenzo · 04 November, 2020, 12:37:04 PM

I can't believe I'm so concerned about someone else's election result that I'm watching the Michigan count as it happens...

Biden was 1.5% down, they are both now on 49.2% share with about 700,000 mail-in votes still to be counted. If Biden doesn't get this state he is stuffed and I'm giving up on democracy for good.

shaolin_monkey · 04 November, 2020, 01:01:19 PM

US polling is so unreliable it clearly needs to be phased out in favour of the 'Dave the Orangutan' approach.

IndigoPrime · 04 November, 2020, 01:23:02 PM

Wi+Mi+Nv is the hope at this point. Then Ga and Pa don't matter. But Biden's losing his lead in Nv. ARGH. I hate this so much.

Lorenzo · 04 November, 2020, 02:07:57 PM

Biden just took the lead in Michigan by 2000 votes! There are only about 60,000 left to count. I believe he has lost Ga, Pa and Nc. Biden leads Nv by 8000, WI by 21,000 and Az by 100,000.

Edit: Biden's lead in Michigan now 25,000!!

Funt Solo · 04 November, 2020, 02:35:09 PM

I feel a bit humanity sick that so many people would vote for such an openly corrupt, hateful bully. You'd think I'd have gotten over Boris's win by now, but there it is.

Professor Bear · 04 November, 2020, 03:01:34 PM

"But look at the alternative."
"What a choice."
"Both sides."
"As bad as each other."
"Just hold your nose when you vote."

Jim_Campbell · 04 November, 2020, 03:20:15 PM

If you want an illustration of how friggin' insane the electoral college system is, Biden's popular vote figure now stands at 69,551,088 — more than Obama in 2008, making it the largest number of votes for a presidential candidate in history.

And yet the result is still too close to call.

(FWIW, Biden's ahead in Nevada and Wisconsin, and fractionally ahead in Michigan, but his lead is widening there as the count goes on. Those three states would give him exactly 270 electoral college votes.)