The methodology for polling right now isn’t equipped to deal with hyper-local shifts and tactical voting. So it’s a generalist view. It may well turn out to be accurate. But for Johnson to get a majority, all of the following have to come to pass:
- Con MPs all hang on in Scotland
- Labour > Conservative gains
- No Conservative > Lib Dem gains
Because the Lib Dems and Labour have spent so much time kicking each-other’s faces in, rather than recognising the enemy is Johnson, there is a real possibility we’ll see a lot of Richmond Parks – seats Lab or Lib could have won/retained had the other side voted tactically. And yet constituency polling suggests although some seats under threat of being lost to Con, some are also heading the other way. A little nudge here and there and the Tories may well lose the likes of Wimbledon.
My concerns right now are:
- The first of the list above does come to pass, and SNP only gain from Lab, not Con
- The LD vote falls back en masse, rather than merely strategically, meaning Con seats in south remain safe
- The lack of noise from LD in the SW, suggesting they just aren’t making inroads there
- Idiotic decisions being made by opposition parties in key marginals, like Stroud, Richmond Park, and Canterbury
I totally get why Greens and Lib Dems don’t want to stand aside for Labour. Labour is supremely arrogant. They assume they ‘should’ rule. They’ve stated that even under a minority scenario, they would ‘expect’ other opposition parties to simply back its policies and get nothing in return. But right now, we’re staring at the abyss. And as much as I value the likes of Molly Scott Cato as an MEP, she’s making a catastrophic error in Stroud.
