The Political Thread

[IndigoPrime]

Watch her performances at committee hearings. It's a world away from Corbyn, who's even now still making errors about the fundamental basics of the EU.

[Tjm86]

Although Labour still got a kicking, but Owen Jones and others acted like Labour won.

Owen Jones still thinks he's in the 6th form common room and writes like he's still in primary school.  I've given up on pretty much anything he writes now as it is likely to be puerile garbage ... but aye, the idea that somehow Labour did amazingly in the last GE just lacks comprehension.

The whole House at present is just a colossal embarrassment.  It's hard to tell who is the bigger joke; May or Corbyn.  The only reason May is still in power is because no-one else is stupid enough to put their head above the parapet.  Even Blojo has done his duck and cover, hoping that when the dust settles everyone will have forgotten how inept he is.  The Labour front bench though is something else again.  Brown really did a number on the party to make sure he had his shot at PM and now the country is paying the price.

[Professor Bear]

THEYRE ALL AS BAD AS EACH OTHER

during which time someone more obviously electable from the party's left might be persuaded to stand for leader, possibly even with Corbyn's blessing (since he never actually wanted the job).

I distinctly remember that the accepted wisdom at the time (coming even from the man himself) was that Corbyn would be gone before the next election, having given his blessing to someone "electable" who would at least give the illusion of being left wing in a party that had by then stopped pretending (Harriet Harmon's disgraceful interim tenure as party leader being the absolute nadir), and what's truly amazing is that no-one wants to admit that the reason he's still in the job is because all of his potential replacements publicly shit their pants while trying to dislodge him before he just left on his own, which kind of felt inevitable in that whole period between the EUREF and the general election.
Dan Jarvis had a serious chance of getting the job before he crumpled on bombing Syria despite his entire schtick being that he was a veteran who was wary of military adventurism, Tom Watson just had to sit out the in-fighting and he was a shoo-in - even Clive Lewis (a Corbyn ally) looked like a good candidate until the media exacerbated nonexistent tensions between him and the leadership, though I suspect he's probably still the best bet on the leftie slate even if he is a fucking Trekkie.

And what's truly amazing is: for what?  We hadn't even had the Brexit ref before these people took it on themselves to take a dump in their own trews, the general election was five years away, and they've made it clear in the intervening time that public opinion of the party is most certainly not something that concerns them, nor does - saints preserve us - a Labour government, the very notion of which repels them like holy water repels a Dracula.
I almost suspect that they just aren't very good at this and media pundits are covering their asses.

[moogie101]

THEYRE ALL AS BAD AS EACH OTHER

during which time someone more obviously electable from the party's left might be persuaded to stand for leader, possibly even with Corbyn's blessing (since he never actually wanted the job).

I distinctly remember that the accepted wisdom at the time (coming even from the man himself) was that Corbyn would be gone before the next election, having given his blessing to someone "electable" who would at least give the illusion of being left wing in a party that had by then stopped pretending (Harriet Harmon's disgraceful interim tenure as party leader being the absolute nadir), and what's truly amazing is that no-one wants to admit that the reason he's still in the job is because all of his potential replacements publicly shit their pants while trying to dislodge him before he just left on his own, which kind of felt inevitable in that whole period between the EUREF and the general election.
Dan Jarvis had a serious chance of getting the job before he crumpled on bombing Syria despite his entire schtick being that he was a veteran who was wary of military adventurism, Tom Watson just had to sit out the in-fighting and he was a shoo-in - even Clive Lewis (a Corbyn ally) looked like a good candidate until the media exacerbated nonexistent tensions between him and the leadership, though I suspect he's probably still the best bet on the leftie slate even if he is a fucking Trekkie.

And what's truly amazing is: for what?  We hadn't even had the Brexit ref before these people took it on themselves to take a dump in their own trews, the general election was five years away, and they've made it clear in the intervening time that public opinion of the party is most certainly not something that concerns them, nor does - saints preserve us - a Labour government, the very notion of which repels them like holy water repels a Dracula.
I almost suspect that they just aren't very good at this and media pundits are covering their asses.

My money on Corbyn's replacement is Keir Starmer, smart & talks well plus he's got a posh name which might confuse Tory voters into ticking his name by mistake.

Sadly I think Labour have been terrible these last few years, happy to watch the Government fall apart but not take advantage & actually present an alternative. The shockingly bad way they've handled the Brexit situation & not getting behind a second vote has surely cost Corbyn a large percentage of the young votes which made it close last GE.

[Leigh S]

Getting behind a second vote - I'm all for a second vote, but what's the point of being behind one when the country would just repeat the same mistake?  I don't like this uncertainty dragging on endlessly, but you can't ignore the first ref because it didnt go the way it might have without all the lying - and even then, you could make a case for a second ref on that basis, but would it change the outcome?  is there really such an easy reset button? It's clear large swathes of brexiters think (bizarrely) that all the foreigners are going to shipped out come March 29, and truth matters very little to them.  Is a second ref winnable? If not, then calling for one is going to get you painted as anti-democratic and achieve what?

I really can't see a way out of this which runs "you were tricked, deal with it", unless a sizeable number of those tricked are willing to accept that, which the polling doesnt seem to support.  Kicking No Deal/Red line Deal into the bin is step one - offering a softer Brexit step 2, with the potential to take that to the people? 

Does anyone really think any other leader of the opposition could have made any different route (given they werent in power and Corbyn did,if nothing else reduce Mays power and improve Labours numbers, albeit not enough to stop her having just enough cards to try and subvert Parliament with a backroom Brexit.

Honestly, what would another leader have done, other than draw even more flak on themselves for no actual advantage?

[Leigh S]

But yes if Labour had got behind the partymembers desire for a left turn,  to be the party that represents change, Corbyn would probably be a footnote by now and someone else in place - instead they did their best to deny the democratic result, and have basically just entrenched his position and at the far end of all this, played some foul political games that mean I would never vote for a Centrist Labour party again, after years of holding my nose, where did it get us - i got us here.

[Professor Bear]

Labour weren't centrist before Corbyn, they were on the right and heading further rightward - there are still New Labour headbangers insisting that Ed Milliband only lost in 2015 because Labour were "too far left", and Harmon's support for drastic welfare cuts shows you where the party was going after Milliband*.
We would be far more to the political right without a left Labour, and Brexit would have been waved through no matter how shit the withdrawal agreement was.  And anyone thinking that UKIP wouldn't soak up left-leaning Leavers and general malcontents while being increasingly legitimised by the media hasn't been paying attention to the last ten years of politics.  Or they've slept through it, the lucky stiff.

Getting behind a second vote - I'm all for a second vote, but what's the point of being behind one when the country would just repeat the same mistake?  I don't like this uncertainty dragging on endlessly, but you can't ignore the first ref because it didnt go the way it might have without all the lying - and even then, you could make a case for a second ref on that basis, but would it change the outcome?

I suspect the backfire effect would come into play to an even greater extent once once you factor in the last two years of Remain painting all Leavers as racists, ignorant, dupes of Putin, or too stupid to look out for their own best interests.  I've seen plenty of Remainers try and talk their comrades off the ledge with "not all Leavers are racists" homilies, but they're pretty much pissing into the wind.  I can think of a couple of Leave voters on here who were mostly reasonable even if I didn't agree with their politics, but they seem suspiciously absent from the board these days and I suspect I know why.

Honestly, what would another leader have done, other than draw even more flak on themselves for no actual advantage?

Yes but they wouldn't be Corbyn.


* To Red Ed's credit, he did at least stick up for the banks when it wasn't fashionable to do so while his yellow-bellied Labour compatriots were briefly riding anti-banker sentiment in the press.  Ed reasoned - to Russell fucking Brand of all people - that banks needed to be bailed out because their fates were intertwined with that of people's savings, mortgages, benefits payments, etc, and "let the banks fail" was little more than a dumbass soundbite.

[Theblazeuk]

Ed Milliband was still better than the utter shower that claims to follow in his footsteps and as you say, collectively shat the trews as soon as people did the horrific act of joining the Labour party.

[IndigoPrime]

Getting behind a second vote - I'm all for a second vote, but what's the point of being behind one when the country would just repeat the same mistake?

The problem (well, one of the problems, beyond things like hostile power interference, an alleged colossal number of 'missing' ballots from overseas, and a broken franchise) with the referendum is that it offered one deliverable option, and one vague hand-waving alternative. The way to have enacted this properly was as per the Irish referendum on abortion law: you have one option that is the status quo (remain) and one piece of legislation that will be enacted, detailing what will happen. Sure, you wouldn't get every detail in there, but leave offered none of that. Instead, remain was beaten by a coalition – everyone from swivel-eyed no-deal loons to pragmatic anti-EU but pro-SM types.

So a second referendum might 'repeat' the mistake in terms of leaving, but it would be for something that's actually deliverable (the WA, followed by the future relationship doc – although the latter of those would have to be locked down by MPs, and would likely change at least somewhat to get the support of the house).

is there really such an easy reset button?

There is no reset button. The best-case scenario from a remain person's perspective is that we stay in the EU, but that still means: probably a decade of rebuilding trust; having to deal with right-wing politicians who will scream BETRAYAL at the top of their lungs; a likely boost for UKIP in MEP seats, despite them now literally sitting with fascists in the EU parliament; the permanent loss of EU agencies; a probably permanent loss of the UK's standing within the world; ongoing problems for anyone who isn't British/doesn't pass as British.

Is a second ref winnable? If not, then calling for one is going to get you painted as anti-democratic and achieve what?

It depends what you mean by winnable. If you mean for remain, polling is now heading outside of margin-of-error territory. On demographics alone, this weekend is the flip point – where if no-one changes their original vote, the country goes remain anyway. But things are moving more quickly, primarily due to Labour leavers changing their minds. The gap still isn't anywhere as large as I'd like (60/40 would be good), but the latest polling has 56/44, and so that is winnable. But even if that didn't come to pass, we'd end up with the WA and transition – certainty at least, even if a permanently diminished country (and, almost certainly, Scotland heading towards indy 2, unless the final agreement included single market membership).

Does anyone really think any other leader of the opposition could have made any different route

Yes, because they wouldn't be driven by ideology to trample all over any attempts to remain, or even soften Brexit. Be mindful, Corbyn hasn't just ruled out remain and a second referendum multiple times, but even any kind of EEA deal (in many cases getting what the EEA entails totally wrong). He comes across like he doesn't like the EU, but also that he doesn't care; so he just doesn't understand a lot of it. He bangs on that Labour couldn't do what it wants within the EU, which means one of two possibilities:

1. He's just flat-out ignorant, given that the entire 2017 Labour manifesto is possible as an EU member
2. We haven't remotely seen what a Corbyn manifesto looks like, and he's prepping to erect a full-on siege economy scenario

The point is that right now, Corbyn holds all of the cards. What Labour does – or doesn't do – will decide this country's future. If Labour unified with the smaller parties and said "second ref" or "EEA" or whatever, there would be enough Tories to secure a majority. But instead we get vagueness about the future, with him talking about a "close relationship with the single market", which is functionally meaningless.

I can think of a couple of Leave voters on here who were mostly reasonable even if I didn't agree with their politics, but they seem suspiciously absent from the board these days and I suspect I know why.

It's probably worth noting that even in 2016, 700,000 people flipping changes the result. That's really not a big ask, purely on demographic lines. But there are quite a few regretful leavers I've seen. If the majority stuck to their guns, that wouldn't matter. You'd only need a small number to switch. (And this assumes everyone turns out.)

[sheridan]

'd for truth.  The homogeny of middle ground politics got us in this position in the first place, what with Ed Milibands "Immigrant's suck" mugs and giant concrete replica of the "There's no money left" note shockingly failing to swing the hearts and minds of the UK population against austerity and isolationism.

I understand the 'no money left' reference (part of the long-standing tradition of outgoing governments to leave jokey notes for the incoming - which the Tories ripped ripped up and spat on by making the joke public and pretending it was real).  The immigrants mug reference I don't get though - did I miss a new item a few years back?

[sheridan]

There was every expectation back then that there would be a full five years before the next general election, during which time someone more obviously electable from the party's left might be persuaded to stand for leader, possibly even with Corbyn's blessing (since he never actually wanted the job).

As a resident of his constituency for a decade (well, until the latter half of last year), I was pretty surprised when he ran for the job - I can only guess it was because he looked at the selection who had put themselves forward and didn't want any of them further destroying the party he'd be a member of for however-many-years.  I did bump into him at a community centre a few doors up from where I lived and he did seem to miss some aspects of his previously backbencher status (like being able to cycle to work before security concerns put an end to that).

[CalHab]

The immigrants mug reference I don't get though - did I miss a new item a few years back?

For reasons we can only wonder at, the Labour party was selling mugs of its 2015 manifesto commitments, including one which promised "Controls on immigration". Just one of many "WTF?" moments from that misconceived and disastrous campaign.

https://www.channel4.com/news/labour-mug-immigration-controls

[Professor Bear]

There's footage somewhere of Corbyn joking with Dianne Abbott that "we agreed it was just my turn" to be the token lefty on the leadership ballot.  He was pretty open at the time that his motivation was that they couldn't find anyone else who identified as left-leaning to run in the contest, and most of the MPs who sponsored his inclusion have been equally open that they thought it would just look bad if there wasn't a lefty on the leadership ballot of the Labour Party - especially as Liz Kendall was then on it, and she was widely considered a step too far to the right even by Blairites.

Ed Milliband was still better than the utter shower that claims to follow in his footsteps and as you say, collectively shat the trews as soon as people did the horrific act of joining the Labour party.

Politics aside, I liked that Ed stood up against the Daily Mail's antisemitic attacks on himself and his late father.  I got the impression that his real problem while leader was probably taking bad advice from the rank and file who we now know were briefing the press against him.

And yes, too many people joining Labour was bad*, but now Yougov has published The Sacred Poll that suggests a majority of Labour members want a second referendum, so the membership is actually good now, and its wishes must be respected.


* On account of them being "Trotskyist sleeper agents" according to Tom Watson and his LOL secret list of enemies and infiltrators

[IndigoPrime]

The thing is, Labour can't have it both ways. When you've got a Labour MP yelling over Swinson on the news, that the Lib Dems messed up in coalition, and shouting demands at her to promise that the Lib Dems would never enter coalition again, that's not a good look. (Swinson did actually, on air, apologise, but was basically saying it'd be nice if Labour would actually follow the sequencing it promised.)

And regarding the membership, either Corbyn does what he promised, and ensures Labour is a democratic entity, or he continues to be an autocrat, and betrays one of the primary pillars on which he was elected. That I'm seeing long-term Labour voters I know quitting the party suggests he's fucking things up. And these people were far from fans of Blair. They're just sick of Corbyn doing a Theresa May ("my way or the highway"), rather than following the wishes of the members, voters and CLPs as he said he would.

What's most depressing on this is there's clearly a majority to be had for soft Brexit or possibly even no Brexit, if Corbyn would get his head out of his arse. Beyond that, there's also a ton of cooperation that could be done between various not-Tory parties (bar, obviously, UKIP), but Labour has the same "God-given right to rule" thinking that the Tories have. So there's no way they could conceive electoral pacts (even though they'd be in an extremely strong position from a demands standpoint), because everyone has the right to vote Labour (even though they won't support PR).

It's a mess. But my anger stems from the fact I hoped for better. I saw Corbyn has a beacon of light, despite the warnings of those older than I am, who remember further back into his career. I believed what he said. 90 per cent of the time I agree with his public policy. But Brexit overrides everything else; it is the most important issue of our age. Corbyn for that has been at best absent, and at worst has enabled the Tories in the cynical hope that they alone will get the blame. Labour's crashing polling with the under 30s suggests that's not going to be the case.

[Dandontdare]

the long-standing tradition of outgoing governments to leave jokey notes for the incoming - which the Tories ripped ripped up and spat on by making the joke public and pretending it was real

My favourite was the Clinton staffers who, when George W Bush came in, removed all the Ws from the white house keyboards. Childish, but made me smile.