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The Political Thread

Started by The Legendary Shark, 09 April, 2010, 03:59:03 PM

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JayzusB.Christ

Quote from: Gary James on 27 February, 2020, 09:33:17 PM


Quote from: JayzusB.Christ on 27 February, 2020, 08:45:03 PMI've been in touch with my old boss (actually an attractive young Chinese lady) in Beijing who told me things are worse there than we're told.
:o Is she okay? And how much worse are things than the already-horrific news stories?

Quote from: JayzusB.Christ on 27 February, 2020, 08:45:03 PMShe believes it's a conspiracy to attack the Chinese government.
We can't rule anything out at the moment, but the list of possible aggressors isn't very long. Only NK really stands out as being capable of anything, and it is highly questionable that they have the technological capabilities to do so. The notion that it is a conspiracy is somehow scarier than it being random bad luck.


Therein lies the conceit of all conspiracy theorists.  As Alan Moore says, we're rudderless.. We're fucked.

As for my boss, she's fine, physically; just very scared and, I'd imagine, depressed.  Maybe it's just worse than I thought- I didn't realise how long people were being confined to their homes, nor how quickly whole communities were being infected.
"Men will never be free until the last king is strangled with the entrails of the last priest"


Dandontdare

Quote from: Gary James on 27 February, 2020, 09:33:17 PM
Quote from: JayzusB.Christ on 27 February, 2020, 08:45:03 PMFirst confirmed case of Corona in Northern Ireland.
The WHO map of Europe is slowly but surely turning blue. By the time this is over I doubt there will be anwhere completely untouched. Anyone who's already booked a flight for later in the year would be wise to check the cancellation details - just in case.

Off to Lanzarote a week on Saturday - don't mind if they close the airport once we're there, I could do with a month of quarantine in the sun  :D

As for conspiracies, unless there's proof I'll side with Occam and go with unregulated farming and markets.

Gary James

Quote from: Dandontdare on 28 February, 2020, 12:52:31 AMOff to Lanzarote a week on Saturday - don't mind if they close the airport once we're there, I could do with a month of quarantine in the sun  :D
There are worse places to be stuck... As long as you have enough insurance coverage for any unexpected hotel bills - if you cough and sneeze enough when you get to the airport you might be refused entry on the return flight. (not suggesting anyone should get themselves quarantined for a little extra sun, but...)  :lol:

Quote from: Dandontdare on 28 February, 2020, 12:52:31 AMAs for conspiracies, unless there's proof I'll side with Occam and go with unregulated farming and markets.
Not forgetting the people keeping all kinds of animals in their homes... Walls covered in cages full of chickens, for example. I'm still astonished at some of the things the H1N1 reportage uncovered, and no doubt we're going to get similarly awful stories coming out of the hotspots as this goes on.

Professor Bear

2018: "Just look at the improvements China has undergone now that it's embraced the free market - this is proof that capitalism is the only economic model that works."
2020: "Just look at the widespread viral outbreak that's occurred because China is socialist - this is proof that capitalism is the only economic model that works."

Apropos of nothing, this would be a terrible time to have an underfunded healthcare system.  LOL I wouldn't wanna be those poor jerks etc

shaolin_monkey

I was chatting to some US folk re what might happen at ground level if the disease turned up in their area.

They explained that they, and the majority of their friends and families, were in very low paid employment in service industries, in areas of enormous contact with the public. 

We're talking baristas, mechanics, waiters, checkout staff, working in bars and cafes, WalMart etc etc etc.  None of them could afford basic medical aid, even to pop to their GP if they became unwell.

They said there's already a thing called 'walking illness' and 'working pneumonia' whereby staff have no paid sick leave (in fact, taking time off sick often leads to dismissal), and can't afford ANY unpaid leave due to their minimum wage roles, so come into work sick. 

And then they pass that illness to the rest of the staff, and they come into work sick.  Then those staff members take it home to their families, who get sick, but also can't avoid work as they are in similar low paying roles. So they also go into work sick.

Meanwhile, every single customer they service is exposed to whatever illness they're forced to endure in work.

They finished by explaining to me that this absolute army of millions upon millions of low paid service industry staff are basically a medical/contagion timebomb.  They feared that once Corona Virus takes hold in the US, that's it - game over. 

Chilling stuff, given a 7% mortality rate so far.

Jim_Campbell

#16836
Quote from: shaolin_monkey on 28 February, 2020, 12:46:26 PM
Chilling stuff, given a 7% mortality rate so far.

I don't think the general mortality rate is anything like 7% — I understood it was more like 2%. As that report in that link discusses, fatality varies hugely dependent on age and underlying health conditions.

Even that mortality rate, I think, is probably over-stated — because the symptoms (if you don't get the vomiting and diarrhoea) are basically indistinguishable from a rough bout of flu, detection is going skew hard towards cases involving hospitalisation and/or fatality. There will be many more cases where the sufferer assumes they have flu, take themselves off to bed for a few days and recover without ever being recorded as an official case.
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shaolin_monkey

Apologies - mortality rate has moved around since I last read up on it.  It seems to be anywhere between 1% and 6% depending on region, age, nutrition, current medical conditions such as asthma, heart disease, kidney disease, high blood pressure, etc. 



TordelBack

#16838
QuoteThey said there's already a thing called 'walking illness' and 'working pneumonia' whereby staff have no paid sick leave (in fact, taking time off sick often leads to dismissal), and can't afford ANY unpaid leave due to their minimum wage roles, so come into work sick.}

It's not as severe, and dismissal is unlikely, but I see it in my industry (commercial archaeology) all the time - virtually no-one has paid sick leave, despite* working physically out in the wet and cold all winter, so I usually have 1 or 2 people on every team shivering and hacking in the corner of the site hut, often the start of a chain of dominoes. Subversive middle-management best practice is to sign them in, get them to do a bit of dated paperwork for a hour or two to prove their existence and then send them home and say nothing to no-one. But by that time they've been on crowded public transport or a shared car, and spread their germs around the site. But if they don't come in, they don't get paid, so what are they supposed to do?

It's madness. When I used to have a company of my own, we had certified and limited uncertified sick pay, so at least people stayed away. But then I went bust and we all had to stay away... so take what lesson you will from that.

*More 'because' than 'despite'.

JayzusB.Christ

One bed in a triple bunk in Dublin City centre is going for 475 a month, while Fianna Fáil cry about a rent freeze being unconstitutional.  If I didn't have the boat I'd be homeless.
"Men will never be free until the last king is strangled with the entrails of the last priest"

Gary James

#16840
Quote from: shaolin_monkey on 28 February, 2020, 12:46:26 PMThey said there's already a thing called 'walking illness' and 'working pneumonia' whereby staff have no paid sick leave (in fact, taking time off sick often leads to dismissal), and can't afford ANY unpaid leave due to their minimum wage roles, so come into work sick.
Which is already a thing that happens routinely in the UK - and, I would wager a guess, nearly everywhere else these days - given how easy it is to replace people on zero hour contracts.

I'm trying so, so hard to avoid the easy target here, and not point the blame at multinational corporations for, once more, fucking people over in cruel and unusual ways, but it is extremely difficult not to see the obvious solution here. Banning the use of such contracts, and allowing people to take time off work when they are clearly unwell, seems to be too obvious for the government to see.

Quote from: shaolin_monkey on 28 February, 2020, 12:46:26 PMMeanwhile, every single customer they service is exposed to whatever illness they're forced to endure in work.
Which, in metropolitan locations, is going to include a number of people who routinely take international flights...

Quote from: shaolin_monkey on 28 February, 2020, 12:46:26 PMChilling stuff, given a 7% mortality rate so far.
Quote from: Jim_Campbell on 28 February, 2020, 12:58:31 PMI don't think the general mortality rate is anything like 7% — I understood it was more like 2%.
Because numbers can offer a little reassurance in these instances I checked what the Spanish Flu mortality rate was - hoping to see that it was much, much higher, and therefore things were nowhere near as bad as was being made out.

Not so reassuring:
Quote...it is estimated that 10% to 20% of those who were infected died.
Well... damn. Taking into consideration the advances in treatment since 1918, and the (arguably) better living conditions overall (for certain countries, at least), there isn't a dramatic difference*. The only real encouraging divergence from that outbreak is that the current epidemic isn't killing off people at such an alarming rate.

There are rumblings that the first Briton to die from the virus has occurred, but it doesn't seem to be reported as yet in any news sources.

Depressingly, it is spreading to untouched areas, far and wide:
Coronavirus: Nigeria confirms first case in sub-Saharan Africa (BBC News)

*Not, say 40-50%, which would be enough to make it clear that things are going to be a-okay.

TordelBack

The issue with mortality rates, as I understand it, is that currently these deaths take place within a functioning health system.

With somewhere between 10-20% of cases requiring serious medical care, if overall infection rates go as high as 40%, you're looking at potentially 30,000 people requiring hospitalisation in little RoI alone. We have 250 ICU beds total and operate at 98% capacity on a normal day. What's that mortality rate going to look like if that scenario comes to pass? And the knock-on for the huge population that already requires regular access to hospitals?

Jim_Campbell

Quote from: Gary James on 28 February, 2020, 01:28:14 PM
*Not, say 40-50%, which would be enough to make it clear that things are going to be a-okay.

I'm going to assume you are neither an epidemiologist nor a statistician* so I'm not sure why you picked that bar for "A-OK". I'm also not either of those things but even I know that diseases with mortality rates that high are very rare and/or difficult to catch.

Bottom line, based on all available data: if you're under 60 and have no serious underlying health conditions, COVID-19 is basically no worse than a rough bout of flu. If either of those two factors apply to you, you should certainly be taking the risks more seriously and maybe limiting your exposure to large crowds of people, checking your travel destinations carefully, observing the hygiene advice that's been given and should probably seek medical advice if you display any of the symptoms.

*Obviously, I'll apologise unreservedly if you are.
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Gary James

Quote from: Jim_Campbell on 28 February, 2020, 01:44:30 PM
I'm going to assume you are neither an epidemiologist nor a statistician*
:lol: Nope.

Quote from: Jim_Campbell on 28 February, 2020, 01:44:30 PMso I'm not sure why you picked that bar for "A-OK". I'm also not either of those things but even I know that diseases with mortality rates that high are very rare and/or difficult to catch.
I had expected the Spanish Flu to be way worse than all indicators point to it being. The fact that so many people were engaged in conflict out in the open - in extremely unsanitary conditions, with no readily available treatment (and none coming close to modern medicine) - seems to demand a much, much higher percentage of deaths than merely 10-20%.

Counting those who were killed while the war was going on, while fatally infected, would skew the estimates upwards a little, but not significantly given how many (overall) people were infected.

Jim_Campbell

Quote from: Gary James on 28 February, 2020, 01:56:43 PM
I had expected the Spanish Flu to be way worse than all indicators point to it being. The fact that so many people were engaged in conflict out in the open - in extremely unsanitary conditions, with no readily available treatment (and none coming close to modern medicine) - seems to demand a much, much higher percentage of deaths than merely 10-20%.

It was a global pandemic. If it had killed 50% of its victims, WWI would be a historical footnote.
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