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It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside

Started by The Enigmatic Dr X, 24 July, 2019, 09:35:09 AM

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The Legendary Shark


I reckon simple life is common - maybe even as common as microbial life being abundant on our own Moon, deep down in the sheltered rocks, and on nearly all rocky planets and moons. Can't wait to get drilling out there!

Hawkie, I can't quite make that great bunch of lads out - who they be?

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sheridan

Quote from: The Legendary Shark on 25 July, 2019, 12:54:37 PM
Hawkie, I can't quite make that great bunch of lads out - who they be?

I think they're the guys from Prometheus.

Bolt-01


The Legendary Shark

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Tjm86

Quote from: The Legendary Shark on 25 July, 2019, 12:30:18 PM

Just Googled that. Interesting theory.

One of the possibilities I've imagined (or read, forgotten, and recalled then mistaken for my own idea) is that alien civilisations don't use radio because there's a better way that we haven't discovered yet. Ditto technology.

I thought this one had been sorted by a Future Shock decades ago:  Earth has been quarantined because the human race are a bunch of psychotic, self-destructive, amoral headbangers and nobody wants to have anything to do with them.  No?

The Legendary Shark


I don't remember that one, but there are certain people in the "exopolitics" community who believe our Solar System has indeed been quarantined due to a kind of Prime Directive observed by (most of) the galactic community.

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shaolin_monkey

[sorry, this may well be a TL:DR kinda post]

You know, I was thinking of starting a thread on climate change here, as this is an area of amateur expertise here (no qualifications, just very well read on the subject for about thirty years). However, I did wonder if might go the way of the politics thread, it being such touch-paper subject.

Anyway, I've got a lot of stuff to share on this, which I hope you find interesting.


Where to study the situation

First up, is that there is a free course launching on EDX on 01/09/19, by Professor Michael A Mann. You may recognise him from Attenborough's 'The State of the Planet'.

He is a professor in Penn State University, famous for the 'hockey stick' CO2 versus climate change study. He has also spent the last 30 years battling with the fossil fuel industry who tried to discredit him, and bury his findings. He's a legend amongst climate scientists.

His course is absolutely free for anyone wanting to get to grips with what this is all about, and what we can do to stop it getting any worse.

You could also sign up for it and pay £40 for marked coursework and an internationally recognised accreditation at the end (which was my choice)!

Go here to find out more:

https://www.edx.org/course/climate-change-the-science-and-global-impact


Professor Mann has also written a superb book called 'The Madhouse Effect', which covers his thirty year fight against the fossil fuel industry, their lies, obfuscations, ad hominem attacks, and so on. The latest version includes a final chapter about Trump.

It is horrifying, but essential reading:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Madhouse-Effect-Threatening-Destroying-Politics/dp/0231177879/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2S0N8WZ2YCVUW&keywords=madhouse+effect&qid=1564348882&s=gateway&sprefix=madhouse+effect%2Caps%2C-1&sr=8-1


Climate throughout history

Anyway, let's talk a bit about how climate has moved about throughout human history.  We all like cartoons, right?

If you believe  'Climate Change isn't driven by humans - it has always changed' then you need to look at this. Yes, climate does change over millennia, but NEVER THIS FAST.

https://xkcd.com/1732/


"What about the Little Ice Age?" is a common refrain from 'deniers', but I was surprised to see it crop up here as it has been so comprehensively debunked over the years.

To explain, what happened in the 1600s was LOCAL not GLOBAL. More on that here:



https://eos.org/articles/the-little-ice-age-wasnt-global-but-current-climate-change-is




A great scientific resource

In fact, let's stick with 'deniers' just for a second.  There's a great website that lists all the common questions/tactics used by folk who want to argue against human-driven climate change, complete with a scientific response.

You can find that here, and is very useful if you encounter a view you are certain is wrong, but can't quite recall the science to help support your argument:

https://skepticalscience.com/argument.php


And now, some info about how accurate temperature rise predictions have been.

So far the warming predictions have been accurate within a range of plus/minus 0.06 degrees.

Breakdown of historical predictions here:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-models-projected-global-warming


Scientific consensus

There's a lot of talk about disputes amongst scientists about this. I heard the IPCC report mentioned above. Well, if that isn't good enough, how about all this:

Scientific Consensus:

http://www.ucsusa.org/scientists-agree-global-warming-happening-humans-primary-cause#.WgIZRLaZORs




99.9999 percent chance we're the cause of global warming study says:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/02/26/global-warming-99-9999-percent-chance-humans-cause/2994043002/?fbclid=IwAR2bxFPuKgYJG1KdNMNityhm_WJW-4iV519Gypq1r9Skb4C7CTozi8WtVmk




9,000+ Scientists defend Endangered Species Act in Letter to trump admin:

https://www.ecowatch.com/scientists-defend-endangered-species-act-2607849341.html




58,000 Science teachers:

https://earther.gizmodo.com/group-of-58-000-science-teachers-issues-no-bullshit-pos-1829106435?IR=T




20,000 Scientists give dire warning about the future:

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/letter-to-humanity-scientists-warning-climate-change-global-warming-experts-a8243606.html



The Letter:

http://scientistswarning.forestry.oregonstate.edu/sites/sw/files/Warning_article_with_supp_11-13-17.pdf




Even the Pentagon recognises it, and warns that Human-Caused Climate Change threatens US security:

https://unfccc.int/news/climate-change-threatens-national-security-says-pentagon




This is a quote from the NASA webpage on the matter (link below), and is just one of thousands and thousands of peer-reviewed scientific papers:


'The current warming trend is of particular significance because most of it is extremely likely (greater than 95 percent probability) to be the result of human activity since the mid-20th century and proceeding at a rate that is unprecedented over decades to millennia.'


So here's your dilemma - you either believe the work of hundreds of thousands of scientists who have dedicated their lives to studying our impact on the planet who are hitting the panic button and trying to do something positive, or believe reports driven by people or institutes who have a vested interest either politically or financially to maintain the status quo.


https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/



How will this affect the planet?

So, what does that mean for life on Earth? Here are a few studies that discuss this.  Short answer - it's not looking good. At all.

First up, The effect on land as CO2 rises:

https://www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2016/10/indirect-co2-effects-study.page


Sea life:

https://ocean.si.edu/ocean-life/invertebrates/ocean-acidification


https://www.iucn.org/resources/issues-briefs/ocean-acidification


Plant life - the CO2 argument:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ask-the-experts-does-rising-co2-benefit-plants1/



Why no movement to stop this?

So despite all this, why has nothing changed. Three words - fossil fuel interests.

Fossil fuels had an estimated $5.2 trillion in subsidies in 2017 according to the below IMF report!! (that's 6.5% of global GDP 😳)

Talk about protecting fossil fuel interests!

Can you imagine where we could have been if renewables had had that level of global investment?!

https://www.imf.org/~/media/Files/Publications/WP/2019/WPIEA2019089.ashx


Summary

Finally, the facts as plainly and bluntly as can be put:

Pre-industrial CO2 PPM: 280
Sept 2016 'red line' CO2 PPM: 400
3rd May 2019 CO2 PPM: 415

May 3rd - highest CO2 PPM in atmosphere in since mid-Pliocene, 3 million yrs ago.

Meaning:

CO2 is rising faster then expected.
A 3 degree temp rise under current trajectory is certain in less than 50 years.
1.5C increase = Bad news for our civilisation.
2C increase = Fight for survival
3C increase = Extinction of humanity.
Any of those increases - bad news for all life on our planet.

shaolin_monkey

#37
Sorry, a bit more - I realise the above came over as a bit 'doomist'.

It's very easy to fall into despair, or be 'doomist' about the situation.  Here's some stuff you can do, which both aids the cause for preservation, and makes you feel useful.

Join Extinction Rebellion:

https://rebellion.earth/


Read Professor Julia Steinberger's impressive Toolkit/To Do List:

https://medium.com/@JKSteinberger/an-audacious-toolkit-actions-against-climate-breakdown-part-1-a-is-for-advocacy-7baa108f00e9


Sign the pledge to go flight-free in 2020:

https://www.flightfree.co.uk/


Plant a tree:

https://www.carbonfootprint.com/plantingtrees.html


Practise what you preach - some ideas from the experts:

Friends of the Earth

https://friendsoftheearth.uk/climate-change/what-can-I-do-to-stop-climate-change


Greenpeace

https://www.greenpeace.org.uk/what-we-do/climate/


Union of Concerned Scientists

https://www.ucsusa.org/what-can-i-do-about-climate-change


The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/climate-change-what-you-can-do-campaigning-installing-insulation-solar-panels


Couldn't be bothered with the links? Here's a TLDR version:

Be an advocate (see Steinberg link for more on this) - spread the word!
Cycle, walk, or use mass transport - dump the car.
If you're stuck with a car, look at the electric options.
Stop eating meat - it has a huge impact on CO2 emissions.
Dry your clothes outside.
Buy a steel water bottle, fill from taps - stop buying single-use plastic.
Learn to grow your own food.
Learn to make your own household cleaners (it's really easy!)
Move to a renewable energy supplier.
Find out where your sustainability group is - go meet them!
Find out where your 'plant a tree' group is - go meet them!
Reuse, repair, recycle EVERYTHING.
Write to your MP.
Write to the PM.
JOIN EXTINCTION REBELLION.





I remember back when I was about 21-22 I was sat up one night with a friend at a shared house, we being the last standing after a party. Our conversation moved away from the frivolities of the day and got deep.

I have been environmentally aware, ever since I was about 13, and that night that's what the conversation turned to. My position was that if the current rate of consumption continued unchecked, meaning every resource, not just fossil fuels, then humanity was in for a serious kicking.

My friend was a biologist - he disagreed, as he'd seen a lot of work amongst his peers and the wider community that showed conservation was happening, and scientific truth was being told to power.

"No mate", I said. "We need more action on this - much more. We are seriously burning through the Earth's resources. We can't sustain this."

"Alright then Dave. Put a timescale to this. How long do you reckon we have?"

"Thirty years" I replied, "and if we don't turn it around in that time, our civilisation is gone."

He smiled at me. "No mate" he said, "you're being overly pessimistic. We'll have taken control of the situation by then"

"30 years." I responded. "You mark my words."

He remained optimistic.

That was 25 years ago. I often wonder where he is now, if he remembers the conversation, and what he thinks of the current situation.

Because, unfortunately, it seems I was correct. I so wish I had been wrong that night. Oh god, do I wish I had been wrong. I do wish the scientific truth he spoke of hadn't been battered down time and again by greedy profiteers.

However, England and Scotland broke their temperature records the other day. Europe is still gripped in a dangerous heatwave. Germany also broke its temperature record last week. The last time it broke its temperature record was the day before!

It's happening the world over. Extreme weather events, once a rarity, are now a common occurrence. Droughts, floods, critical temperatures, storms, hail the size of your fist, water running out, crops failing. All over the world.

Scientists are now telling us that we are past a point, and millions will die. What we have left is damage control, if we act now, to stop millions dead becoming billions dead.

It is so easy to be 'doomist' about this, to sit back and say "Ah, fuck it then, we're too late." But I keep recalling my friend, my gentle optimistic scientist comrade, the smile on his face, his reassurance that we can do something about it. His hope.

And he's right, we absolutely can. We can stop this horror extending to the sixth extinction event. We can pull this back, and halt any further damage. We are in for a kicking, but we can stop it being a mortal wound for us, and the lifeforms we share this wonderful, crazy planet with.

We must act now. Right now.

So that's what I'm going to do. Despite everything I see, hear, and read on the subject I am going to cling on to the hope and optimism of my biologist friend, and do everything I can. I would like everyone who reads this to do the same.

Take your own individual actions to reduce your impact, but more than anything else, speak truth to power, like so many have been doing and continue to do. Say "no more!" and hold the corporations and governments accountable for their every resource-stripping, profiteering, cataclysmic action.

We have to try. We HAVE to. Because the alternative... well, there is no alternative.

The Legendary Shark


Good posts, SM, thank you. It'll take me a while to go through all the links but there's a lot here I agree with, some I don't and some I'm not sure about.

Fundamentally, though, irrespective of our differences, I do agree - very strongly - that we must clean up our act.

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IndigoPrime

What's stuck with me from that HuffPo piece – and some of the links above – is that notion this is it. The idea my 5yo might not live to a good age, because of the manner in which this planet is being ruined. That still makes me want to break down right now. The feeling is an odd mix of helplessness and grief. And all around, we see countries suggesting they might do something about removing most of the harm by 2050. It's fucking insane.

The Earth, of course, will be fine. Life *will* survive, unless we nuke the place into oblivion (and possibly even then). The Earth has survived extinction events, and will survive this one. But humanity won't – at least in any recognisable form. But when you still have people in power saying "well, it's probably not us" and inferring that "something will come along" to deal with peak oil (and all the other peaks), it's just baffling.

The links are something, though.

Cycle, walk, or use mass transport - dump the car: mini-IP demanded we walk into town yesterday, when neighbours went on their bikes. So that was a first (and a good thing). Also, town is a long way for a 5yo...

If you're stuck with a car, look at the electric options: we need to fight for better infrastructure here. (We went hybrid with our new car, because electric wasn't viable for us. We do, however, at least only have one car, which surprises people.)

Stop eating meat - it has a huge impact on CO2 emissions: this is the one I wish I could do, but a decade of digestive disorder has left vegetarianism an impossibility. (Mrs IP's also got a slew of allergies, meaning we had to dial things back at speed.)

Dry your clothes outside: we got some 'ceiling lines' for clothes drying. They're really handy. Lines can be lowered, clothes can be added, and then they're up and out of the way. (Can't do outside drying – hayfever and a million fucking wasps this year.)

Buy a steel water bottle, fill from taps - stop buying single-use plastic: working on this one. I'm pretty shite at the water thing. Any recommendations for good bottles.

Learn to grow your own food: heh. Tried this. Failed dismally. What's the opposite of green fingers? Still, we have a tomato plant again. Baby steps.

Learn to make your own household cleaners (it's really easy!): any good links? We also have a new store in town that does refillable for cleaners and some staples like rice. It's a first here, and we need to use that more than the supermarkets. (The supermarkets are bonkers also. Morrisons is banning plastic wrap for fruit and veg, and has you take your own tubs in for meat. And then they use plastic bags for delivery, and single-use plastic when handling meat. ARGH! So close!)

Anyway, thanks for attempting to balance the doom with some shiny. We need more of the latter – some kind of hope and positivity.

sheridan

Quote from: shaolin_monkey on 28 July, 2019, 11:48:31 PM
It's happening the world over. Extreme weather events, once a rarity, are now a common occurrence. Droughts, floods, critical temperatures, storms, hail the size of your fist, water running out, crops failing. All over the world.

Not to make light of the situation, but that list of extreme weather events reminds me of something...



Tiplodocus

"Stop eating meat - it has a huge impact on CO2 emissions: this is the one I wish I could do, but a decade of digestive disorder has left vegetarianism an impossibility. (Mrs IP's also got a slew of allergies, meaning we had to dial things back at speed.)"

That's bad luck, and I hope it's not too bad for you,  because it really is one of the easiest things you can do with a big impact. Plus, you know, there's the ethical side. 

But nothing stopping the rest of you giving up meat, eggs and dairy.

<<ducks>>

Be excellent to each other. And party on!

Link Prime


Hawkmumbler

There's a huge divide between consuming meat and consuming battery farmed meat. I'll never stop putting emphasis on the point that eating meat isn't itself the problem, but battery farming. Eating meat less, and from locally sourced butchers, has just as much an effect as veganism.

IndigoPrime

Quote from: Tiplodocus on 29 July, 2019, 03:15:35 PMThat's bad luck, and I hope it's not too bad for you,  because it really is one of the easiest things you can do with a big impact. Plus, you know, there's the ethical side.
Believe me, I don't love looking at a pile of bones once I've finished a chicken. I'm not wired that way. But also, when the list of things you actually can eat is dropping by the year, you end up favouring an ability to function over everything else. If I gave up chicken and eggs, I'd basically be fucked. Dairy's gone, albeit not because I wanted it to be.
 
Quote from: Hawkmumbler on 29 July, 2019, 03:36:49 PMThere's a huge divide between consuming meat and consuming battery farmed meat. I'll never stop putting emphasis on the point that eating meat isn't itself the problem, but battery farming. Eating meat less, and from locally sourced butchers, has just as much an effect as veganism.
This also. I recall seeing some figures stating that lettuce was, for the most part, just a massive fucking waste of time, energy and resources. Also, the manner in which almonds are farmed is hugely problematic. (Almonds are of course used in a lot of vegan food – be that processed or home-made.)

Still, if everyone started being a bit less rubbish, I guess that's a start. Not sure how I can make peace with the zero flights thing, mind. I could live with fewer holidays, but I couldn't say no to Mrs IP wanting to visit her family in Iceland. (Technically, you _can_ get there by boat, I suppose; but it takes about a week, and it's by haulage ferry.)