2000 AD Online Forum

General Chat => Off Topic => : The Enigmatic Dr X 24 July, 2019, 09:35:09 AM

: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Enigmatic Dr X 24 July, 2019, 09:35:09 AM
Climate change. What's to be done?

Read an article this morning saying that we are on track for a 3 degree increase by the end of the century if carbon emissions do not peak in 2020 and fall by 2030. It also says we have 18 months to do something about it (ie the end of 2020) because any relevant plan will take 10 years to implement.

Otherwise, 25% of species face extinction and the eco-system is fecked.

I don't think anyone disputes that. Action needs taken. But what?

The real issue for me is that the silent majority are too self-centred and short-termist. I am not sure I care (I know I should, I really do) about the extinction of beetles in Peru. And I think I am a fair-minded guy.

Thing is, it's not the end of the world. It's really not. What it is, though, is the end of a way of life.

Surely, the way to kick folk up the arse to do something is to point out the changes that they will need to make, and how much worse things will be the longer we take to do anything meaninful?

Focus not on extinction (which is bad, but which most folk I talk to just don't get moved by). Focus on the price of prosecco, the loss of bananas, the inability to fly to Marbs, the hike in clothing prices as cotton becomes more expensive, migrants fleeing their new-desert homes, the cost/ lack of fuel. Make it relevant to the masses.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IAMTHESYSTEM 24 July, 2019, 10:19:11 AM
There is a limited ability of humans to react to the impact of climate change. It would take an international effort unparalleled in human history to achieve a reduction in C02 outputs. Unfortunately, when co-operation is paramount, the rising sea levels will lead to an upsurge in prices for essential services like food. Combine that with refugees all looking to escape from countries affected by climate change, and you've got the exact opposite of what you need. A 'look after your own' idealism will arrive, and we see the first outposts in this coming attitude in Brexit and Trump's successful election. You can see the logic, therefore, why many of these 'Alter's' refute any action to stop or mitigate global warming. It's the gift that keeps on giving. As condition worsen producing ever-increasing numbers of refugees, you can use that to compound your grip on society. Fear of the unwashed hordes surging across poorly maintained borders strengthens your hand. Since these Alters are opportunistic, they need the right circumstances to establish and sustain themselves, and Climate change is that chance.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: CalHab 24 July, 2019, 11:27:58 AM
The "Tragedy of the commons (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons)" effect also means that whenever we propose doing anything at home, someone will always pipe up "but what's the point when USA/China/Everyone else isn't doing that". It's a poisonous mindset that seeks to prevent anyone taking action.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 24 July, 2019, 11:46:24 AM

I don't think climate change can be stopped - the climate has been changing for billions of years and will continue to do so for billions more. The best we can do is mitigate by cutting down on pollution, building sea defences, building new settlements or planting forests where the glaciers used to be, building new fresh water reservoirs (in abandoned coal mines etc?) and such things.

Carbon tax is not the answer, or at least only a miniscule part of the answer. We have to adapt to the planet because we can't adapt the planet to us. Climate change is not a disaster, it's an opportunity.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Hawkmumbler 24 July, 2019, 12:15:05 PM

I don't think climate change can be stopped - the climate has been changing for billions of years and will continue to do so for billions more.

I don't believe the sentiment 'climate change is bad' has ever been the case, except when simplified for kiddies obviously, but instead 'climate change at the rate of visible degrees within years, not centuries, in bad and we're causing it'.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: sheridan 24 July, 2019, 01:01:01 PM
The real issue for me is that the silent majority are too self-centred and short-termist. I am not sure I care (I know I should, I really do) about the extinction of beetles in Peru. And I think I am a fair-minded guy.

Yes, you should - even if you don't care about the hypothetical beetle itself, until a species dies out we don't really know what else was relying on it (even then we might not find out - the dependant species just has difficulties which we can't explain).

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Colin YNWA 24 July, 2019, 01:18:22 PM

I don't think climate change can be stopped - the climate has been changing for billions of years and will continue to do so for billions more. The best we can do is mitigate by cutting down on pollution, building sea defences, building new settlements or planting forests where the glaciers used to be, building new fresh water reservoirs (in abandoned coal mines etc?) and such things.

Carbon tax is not the answer, or at least only a miniscule part of the answer. We have to adapt to the planet because we can't adapt the planet to us. Climate change is not a disaster, it's an opportunity.

I rarely engage with this type of thing here BUT please for the love of all, don't confuse natural changes in climate that happen over long periods of time and the current human induced climate change that we are all responsible for creating and therefore solving.

They are entirely different things and to say otherwise is to side with climate denies such as Trump who look for any reason to spit their nonsense.

There is agreement in the scientific community

Weather is not the same as climate

The significent increase in overall temperature we are seeing globally in the last couple of hundred years (but most significently in the last 50) is due to human actions

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 24 July, 2019, 01:27:03 PM
There’s a great graph online that shows climate shifts since the era before the dinosaurs. Natural changes usually occur over many thousands of years. The spike humans have created is unprecedented and essentially a vertical line.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Dark Jimbo 24 July, 2019, 01:31:55 PM
I don't think climate change can be stopped - the climate has been changing for billions of years and will continue to do so for billions more.

I rarely engage with this type of thing here BUT please for the love of all, don't confuse natural changes in climate that happen over long periods of time and the current human induced climate change that we are all responsible for creating and therefore solving.

Yeah, that is probably the most unhelpful remark that can be made about climate change, Shark.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 24 July, 2019, 01:59:31 PM
I don't think climate change can be stopped - the climate has been changing for billions of years and will continue to do so for billions more.

I rarely engage with this type of thing here BUT please for the love of all, don't confuse natural changes in climate that happen over long periods of time and the current human induced climate change that we are all responsible for creating and therefore solving.

Yeah, that is probably the most unhelpful remark that can be made about climate change, Shark.

Agreed, it's a literally fatal line of thinking, although note that Sharky goes on to say:

Carbon tax is not the answer, or at least only a miniscule part of the answer. We have to adapt to the planet because we can't adapt the planet to us.

This I can partly get behind. Carbon tax can be a part of the answer in two senses: it is a crude economic stick aimed at modifying behaviour by using a single simple metric, and that is a welcome and often effective approach; its revenues can be used to part-fund critical climate projects. But the Shark is entirely correct, it's a very small part of what's needed, and dangerously it overwhelmingly affects the poorer sections of the West, while making the high-consumption perks of wealth even more exclusive and desirable. (Imagine the joy of the rich to discover foreign travel has been returned to them and them alone!) This can and does reduce widespread support for current measures, gives opportunity to anti-fact demagogues, and creates an atmosphere that bodes ill for the reception of the savage economic pain that will be required very soon.

In the long term I think the 'stick' part of tackling climate change is going to have to factor in income and net worth: a basic level of carbon credits, with a increase in costs based on a  progressive proportion of real wealth, instead of a flat rate.

But I'd far rather see creative solutions that take account of what we can do individually and collectively, in the way of a radical change to lifestyle, economy, international aid and domestic land-use, rather than just what we have to pay.


: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 24 July, 2019, 06:41:21 PM

I don't deny that humanity is having an effect, the question is - how big an effect? It cannot be denied that climate is also effected by the Sun, cosmic rays, precession, orbital mechanics, volcanism, continental drift, the fact that the Earth is still emerging from the tail end of an ice age and so on. We have suffered such things as the medieval warm period and the little ice age, showing that climate can peak and trough on its own.  It's a very complex collection of variables. What seems unhelpful to me is to pin the whole shooting match on humanity's carbon usage.

There is so much we should be doing, like cutting emissions of more powerful greenhouse gases like methane and, most powerful of all, water vapour. Power stations belch out water vapour 24 hours a day - and surely it's not beyond the wit of man to condense it and put it into rivers, which help distribute and regulate atmospheric heat, or pump it into aquifers (or abandoned coal mines) to slake the thirst of towns and cities?

Stop chopping down forests and jungles without replacing the trees, stop bleeding toxins and plastics into rivers and oceans, interfering with their thermal properties and killing carbon and methane eating organisms.

Clean up jet exhausts, which emit tons of ozone depleting chemicals into precisely the part of the atmosphere where they do the most damage (there are, I think, now two holes in the ozone layer).

How about painting our cities black so they radiate less heat into the atmosphere? How about stopping burning all kinds of nasty chemicals and radioactive dusts by stopping bombing the crap out of each other?

It's a very complex set of variables, and I've only scratched the surface here, and we need to admit that focusing just on carbon is not going to help us. Carbon is just a figleaf applied by vested interests to protect their powers and profits. I for one do not trust the institution of government, which brought us the likes of Blair, Bush, Trump and now Johnson, to be either informed or honest about the problem. Just look how they back fraccing - they either don't believe the carbon story or they don't care. Either way, these clowns are not the best people to rely on when it comes to planning for the future, and if they say 'it's carbon,' we can be fairly sure it ain't the whole story.

Of course, I could be wrong but I really don't think I am, and what does it matter anyway? Say that cutting carbon emissions altogether solves the problem completely. Well, hurrah! And I'd be the first one to dance, but does this mean we shouldn't do any of the other things? And what if I'm half right and cutting carbon emissions only solves 50% of the problem? Or 5%? Or 0.5%? Shouldn't we be looking to building sea defences, husbanding our water supplies properly, employing altenatives to plastics, planning how to populate Antarctica once the ice has gone and so on and on, just in case?

If being skeptical of the carbon story - carbon emissions, carbon taxes, carbon trading - makes me a "climate denier" (what does that even mean, anyway? Someone who denies the existence of climate? A stupid title attached to anyone who criticises the official line, designed to stop any rational thought or debate before it even starts - like calling those who first tried to flag up the dangers of lead in petrol as "anti-fuel"), then I guess that's how I'll be labelled. But I'm not a climate denier really - I do believe that there is such a thing as a climate and I do believe that it's changing - but I don't believe that the official story put out by the vested interests is anything close to the whole truth, nor do I believe their proposed solutions are anything more than a single paragraph in the encyclopedia of things that need to be done.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 24 July, 2019, 06:47:51 PM
I don't deny that humanity is having an effect, the question is - how big an effect?
It depends whether you believe the non-partisan research of over 99 per cent of climate scientists, or whack job blogs, I suppose. When you see graphs that plot the temperatures across MILLIONS of years, what you see is a gradual ebb and flow. When we rock up, there’s a straight perpendicular line upwards, causing the same level of change as in extinction events.

It's a very complex set of variables, and I've only scratched the surface here, and we need to admit that focusing just on carbon is not going to help us.
This, I agree with. We need a wholesale change in how we live. The question is, what are westerners prepared to give up?

As for doing this stuff, and the argument of hoax or it not being entirely necessary:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C3Mu-yhUoAAdb53.jpg)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: JayzusB.Christ 24 July, 2019, 07:22:22 PM
I don't deny that humanity is having an effect, the question is - how big an effect?
It depends whether you believe the non-partisan research of over 99 per cent of climate scientists, or whack job blogs, I suppose.

We've been here before.  I love the Shark like a brother, but for him it's the latter. 
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: radiator 24 July, 2019, 07:25:59 PM
That climate change/conservation has somehow become a partisan issue is one of the most depressing developments in recent years.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Colin YNWA 24 July, 2019, 08:14:34 PM

There is so much we should be doing, like cutting emissions of more powerful greenhouse gases like methane and, most powerful of all, water vapour.

Again apologies for getting involved in such matters but don't let the misinformation get out there. Couple of hopefully reliable sources to explain this issues

https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/climate-change-evidence-causes/basics-of-climate-change/ (https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/climate-change-evidence-causes/basics-of-climate-change/)

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11652-climate-myths-carbon-dioxide-isnt-the-most-important-greenhouse-gas/ (https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11652-climate-myths-carbon-dioxide-isnt-the-most-important-greenhouse-gas/)

The more energy we all waste buying into doubt sown by parties interested in clouding the issue the less energy we have for sorting the real, identified and understood problem.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 24 July, 2019, 08:53:24 PM

The IPCC is a political body which was set up to assess the work of climate scientists and issue reports thereon. It is not a scientific body at all. It decides which research to accept and which research to reject based on political policy. Therefore, any research on the effects of the sun or cosmic rays, for example, can be excluded as it does not support the anthropogenic aspect - which does indeed exist. (For example, the IPCC's next report (AR6, due 2022), I believe, contains 784 authors, but no geologists - surely a vital discipline in determining historical climate data and trends.) This is how it can make the claim that 95% of climate scientists agree that climate change is man-made, because all the data it looks at comes from scientists studying this narrow aspect of the problem.

Further, the final reports are not issued until they have been thoroughly vetted by governmental political representatives.

Politics, as we all know, relies heavily upon correctly framing the issues for maximum impact and hoping nobody notices the gaps or vilifying those who do.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 24 July, 2019, 08:57:54 PM

This is not to say, of course, that all the presented papers are bunk - just spotlighted for political/industrial/economic purposes. It's valid, but it's not comprehensive.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 24 July, 2019, 09:05:40 PM

Aww, thanks, JBC. It's a genuine pleasure to interact with people like you - with whom I can disagree without falling out.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: radiator 24 July, 2019, 09:19:13 PM
The IPCC is a political body which was set up to assess the work of climate scientists and issue reports thereon. It is not a scientific body at all. It decides which research to accept and which research to reject based on political policy. Therefore, any research on the effects of the sun or cosmic rays, for example, can be excluded as it does not support the anthropogenic aspect - which does indeed exist. (For example, the IPCC's next report (AR6, due 2022), I believe, contains 784 authors, but no geologists - surely a vital discipline in determining historical climate data and trends.) This is how it can make the claim that 95% of climate scientists agree that climate change is man-made, because all the data it looks at comes from scientists studying this narrow aspect of the problem.

Further, the final reports are not issued until they have been thoroughly vetted by governmental political representatives.

Politics, as we all know, relies heavily upon correctly framing the issues for maximum impact and hoping nobody notices the gaps or vilifying those who do.

It's extremely easy to understand why certain parties have a vested interest in denying or downplaying climate change.

It's much harder to imagine what anyone stands to gain from manufacturing or exaggerating the threat...
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 24 July, 2019, 09:21:51 PM
Quite. Most of the shitty politics is aligned with “carry on fucking things up”, which says a lot. But say we don’t. We invest in a sustainable, cleaner future. OH NO, WHAT A BAD THING.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Jim_Campbell 24 July, 2019, 11:22:46 PM
Leaving aside Shark peddling a line of unutterable shite he’s peddled before, had comprehensively debunked, and repeated without so much as a hint of recognition of the arguments against…

Technologies exist that are capable of pulling CO₂ out of the air. Yes, in many ways most of them are problematic, but the simple truth is this:

Fossil fuels are going away. There are thermal solar power plants in various parts of the world producing electricity right now at unit costs equivalent to natural gas. Internal combustion engine vehicles are going to be replaced by electric, and self-driving vehicles will answer many of the criticisms that still exist for those. We’re at a tipping point with these things — by the middle of the century, they’ll be gone.

(Yes, there are unsolved issues like air travel and bulk sea transport, but sorting out power generation and road transport would cut CO₂ emissions enough to buy time for solutions to these remaining use cases to be found.)

But none of this is worth a damn if the oceans become too hot and too acidic to support life.

We need to change the conversation. Carbon capture at scale is the only way we save the planet. The money Elon fucking Musk is throwing at getting off the planet could easily save our own if it was thrown at carbon capture.

There’s an argument that carbon capture will only encourage the production of more greenhouse gases and that only changing the fundamental basis of our economies will solve the problem in the long term, but we don’t have that luxury.

If the patient has lung cancer, but is also bleeding out, you need to stop the bleeding before you persuade them to stop smoking.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 25 July, 2019, 07:03:01 AM


It's much harder to imagine what anyone stands to gain from manufacturing or exaggerating the threat...


I did not say that the threat was manufactured or exaggerated but that the political solutions are far too narrow and limited.


Leaving aside Shark peddling a line of unutterable shite he’s peddled before, had comprehensively debunked, and repeated without so much as a hint of recognition of the arguments against…



Debunked by one or more of your beloved logical fallacies? I'll save us both the time and trouble, Jim:

You: You're wrong.
Me: Counter argument.
You: Swear, swear, sweary swear, swear.
Me: There's no need for that.
You: I'm tired and I don't know why I bother.
Me: Okay, but...
You: * ~ *  t u m b l e w e e d  * ~ *

Anyway, none of this changes the fact that I've been sweating my plumbs off gardening under a merciless sun all week and will be sweating my plumbs off gardening under a merciless sun all day today* but tomorrow is my day off so I'll be sweating my plumbs off  under a merciless sun whilst sat on the veranda (the flagged area outside my shed), sipping cocktails (fizzy pop) and reading erudite journals (2000ADs).


*And doesn't that seem daft? Burning fuel and emitting pollution in order to trim carbon dioxide consuming plants? I'd love to ban the electric/petrol garden tools but I'm too old and unfit to do it all with push-mowers and manual shears - which seems like a decent encapsulation of the problem. I'd love to save us from ourselves but I can't be arsed/afford it/deal with the consequences - best leave it to our trustworthy government.

Ah well, off out into the merciless sun to sweat my plumbs off I go. Wish me luck!

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 25 July, 2019, 08:57:04 AM
Here’s something even more bleak: https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/facing-extinction-humans-animals-plants-species_n_5d2ddc04e4b0a873f6420bd3

This is of course an op-ed, but it’s nonetheless good for thought.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 25 July, 2019, 09:58:55 AM

Here’s something even more bleak: https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/facing-extinction-humans-animals-plants-species_n_5d2ddc04e4b0a873f6420bd3

This is of course an op-ed, but it’s nonetheless good for thought.

Damn it, that site won't let me unless I give them "...consent to access [my] device and use [my] data (including location) to understand
[my] interests, and provide and measure
personalised ads."

Nope. Sorry.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 25 July, 2019, 10:10:41 AM
It’s HuffPo. Just tell it to piss off regarding cookies. Or perhaps try the Amp version (https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5d2ddc04e4b0a873f6420bd3/amp).
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 25 July, 2019, 10:21:16 AM

Thanks, I.P. Can't get 'round it on this old 'phone of mine so I'll have to try it when I can get my lappy on-line and fire up the Tor.

Extinctions are a worry - the butterfly effect means we can never be sure of the consequences :(

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 25 July, 2019, 10:41:26 AM
The article is significantly more bleak than that, as you’ll discover. There was a line in it that made me want to cry, but I just ended up frozen. Ultimately, I suspect the article is probably about right, although the timescale may be off. (The question is what we can do, in terms of mitigation, and if there will ever be widespread will.)

Incidentally, anyone interested in The Great Filter theory may find this interesting. Not that every kind of life would necessarily be like ours, but it outlines why there aren’t aliens zipping about everywhere.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 25 July, 2019, 12:30:18 PM

Just Googled that. Interesting theory.

One of the possibilities I've imagined (or read, forgotten, and recalled then mistaken for my own idea) is that alien civilisations don't use radio because there's a better way that we haven't discovered yet. Ditto technology.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 25 July, 2019, 12:43:47 PM
On the aliens front, there are plenty of reasons why we haven’t seen any, and probably never will. Space is _vast_, and the universe’s age is also. So even if the universe is, relatively speaking, teeming with life, the chances of advanced civilisations meeting is miniscule. (It’s more likely – if still not hugely likely – humans may at some point find some other lifeforms elsewhere, although only if we don’t wipe ourselves out first.)

On the end game front, that article paints a bleak picture, and as I sit here melting today am finding it hard to disagree with.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Hawkmumbler 25 July, 2019, 12:47:21 PM
Are these lads a joke to you gentlemen?

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-HZTYBbzEQkI/T-zpzZr6EPI/AAAAAAAAAGM/XaY9MIWtv4k/s1600/VadP8.jpg)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 25 July, 2019, 12:54:37 PM

I reckon simple life is common - maybe even as common as microbial life being abundant on our own Moon, deep down in the sheltered rocks, and on nearly all rocky planets and moons. Can't wait to get drilling out there!

Hawkie, I can't quite make that great bunch of lads out - who they be?

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: sheridan 25 July, 2019, 12:58:26 PM
Hawkie, I can't quite make that great bunch of lads out - who they be?

I think they're the guys from Prometheus.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Bolt-01 25 July, 2019, 01:20:48 PM
Yup, the engineers.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 25 July, 2019, 02:44:50 PM

Ah, thank you!

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Tjm86 26 July, 2019, 08:14:20 AM

Just Googled that. Interesting theory.

One of the possibilities I've imagined (or read, forgotten, and recalled then mistaken for my own idea) is that alien civilisations don't use radio because there's a better way that we haven't discovered yet. Ditto technology.

I thought this one had been sorted by a Future Shock decades ago:  Earth has been quarantined because the human race are a bunch of psychotic, self-destructive, amoral headbangers and nobody wants to have anything to do with them.  No?
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 26 July, 2019, 08:50:17 AM

I don't remember that one, but there are certain people in the "exopolitics" community who believe our Solar System has indeed been quarantined due to a kind of Prime Directive observed by (most of) the galactic community.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 28 July, 2019, 10:44:47 PM
[sorry, this may well be a TL:DR kinda post]

You know, I was thinking of starting a thread on climate change here, as this is an area of amateur expertise here (no qualifications, just very well read on the subject for about thirty years). However, I did wonder if might go the way of the politics thread, it being such touch-paper subject.

Anyway, I’ve got a lot of stuff to share on this, which I hope you find interesting.


Where to study the situation

First up, is that there is a free course launching on EDX on 01/09/19, by Professor Michael A Mann. You may recognise him from Attenborough’s ‘The State of the Planet’.

He is a professor in Penn State University, famous for the ‘hockey stick’ CO2 versus climate change study. He has also spent the last 30 years battling with the fossil fuel industry who tried to discredit him, and bury his findings. He’s a legend amongst climate scientists.

His course is absolutely free for anyone wanting to get to grips with what this is all about, and what we can do to stop it getting any worse.

You could also sign up for it and pay £40 for marked coursework and an internationally recognised accreditation at the end (which was my choice)!

Go here to find out more:

https://www.edx.org/course/climate-change-the-science-and-global-impact


Professor Mann has also written a superb book called ‘The Madhouse Effect’, which covers his thirty year fight against the fossil fuel industry, their lies, obfuscations, ad hominem attacks, and so on. The latest version includes a final chapter about Trump.

It is horrifying, but essential reading:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Madhouse-Effect-Threatening-Destroying-Politics/dp/0231177879/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2S0N8WZ2YCVUW&keywords=madhouse+effect&qid=1564348882&s=gateway&sprefix=madhouse+effect%2Caps%2C-1&sr=8-1


Climate throughout history

Anyway, let’s talk a bit about how climate has moved about throughout human history.  We all like cartoons, right?

If you believe  ‘Climate Change isn’t driven by humans - it has always changed’ then you need to look at this. Yes, climate does change over millennia, but NEVER THIS FAST.

https://xkcd.com/1732/


“What about the Little Ice Age?” is a common refrain from ‘deniers’, but I was surprised to see it crop up here as it has been so comprehensively debunked over the years.

To explain, what happened in the 1600s was LOCAL not GLOBAL. More on that here:



https://eos.org/articles/the-little-ice-age-wasnt-global-but-current-climate-change-is




A great scientific resource

In fact, let’s stick with ‘deniers’ just for a second.  There’s a great website that lists all the common questions/tactics used by folk who want to argue against human-driven climate change, complete with a scientific response.

You can find that here, and is very useful if you encounter a view you are certain is wrong, but can’t quite recall the science to help support your argument:

https://skepticalscience.com/argument.php


And now, some info about how accurate temperature rise predictions have been.

So far the warming predictions have been accurate within a range of plus/minus 0.06 degrees.

Breakdown of historical predictions here:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-models-projected-global-warming


Scientific consensus

There’s a lot of talk about disputes amongst scientists about this. I heard the IPCC report mentioned above. Well, if that isn’t good enough, how about all this:

Scientific Consensus:

http://www.ucsusa.org/scientists-agree-global-warming-happening-humans-primary-cause#.WgIZRLaZORs




99.9999 percent chance we’re the cause of global warming study says:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/02/26/global-warming-99-9999-percent-chance-humans-cause/2994043002/?fbclid=IwAR2bxFPuKgYJG1KdNMNityhm_WJW-4iV519Gypq1r9Skb4C7CTozi8WtVmk




9,000+ Scientists defend Endangered Species Act in Letter to trump admin:

https://www.ecowatch.com/scientists-defend-endangered-species-act-2607849341.html




58,000 Science teachers:

https://earther.gizmodo.com/group-of-58-000-science-teachers-issues-no-bullshit-pos-1829106435?IR=T




20,000 Scientists give dire warning about the future:

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/letter-to-humanity-scientists-warning-climate-change-global-warming-experts-a8243606.html



The Letter:

http://scientistswarning.forestry.oregonstate.edu/sites/sw/files/Warning_article_with_supp_11-13-17.pdf




Even the Pentagon recognises it, and warns that Human-Caused Climate Change threatens US security:

https://unfccc.int/news/climate-change-threatens-national-security-says-pentagon




This is a quote from the NASA webpage on the matter (link below), and is just one of thousands and thousands of peer-reviewed scientific papers:


’The current warming trend is of particular significance because most of it is extremely likely (greater than 95 percent probability) to be the result of human activity since the mid-20th century and proceeding at a rate that is unprecedented over decades to millennia.’


So here’s your dilemma - you either believe the work of hundreds of thousands of scientists who have dedicated their lives to studying our impact on the planet who are hitting the panic button and trying to do something positive, or believe reports driven by people or institutes who have a vested interest either politically or financially to maintain the status quo.


https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/



How will this affect the planet?

So, what does that mean for life on Earth? Here are a few studies that discuss this.  Short answer - it’s not looking good. At all.

First up, The effect on land as CO2 rises:

https://www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2016/10/indirect-co2-effects-study.page


Sea life:

https://ocean.si.edu/ocean-life/invertebrates/ocean-acidification


https://www.iucn.org/resources/issues-briefs/ocean-acidification


Plant life - the CO2 argument:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ask-the-experts-does-rising-co2-benefit-plants1/



Why no movement to stop this?

So despite all this, why has nothing changed. Three words - fossil fuel interests.

Fossil fuels had an estimated $5.2 trillion in subsidies in 2017 according to the below IMF report!! (that’s 6.5% of global GDP 😳)

Talk about protecting fossil fuel interests!

Can you imagine where we could have been if renewables had had that level of global investment?!

https://www.imf.org/~/media/Files/Publications/WP/2019/WPIEA2019089.ashx


Summary

Finally, the facts as plainly and bluntly as can be put:

Pre-industrial CO2 PPM: 280
Sept 2016 ‘red line’ CO2 PPM: 400
3rd May 2019 CO2 PPM: 415

May 3rd - highest CO2 PPM in atmosphere in since mid-Pliocene, 3 million yrs ago.

Meaning:

CO2 is rising faster then expected.
A 3 degree temp rise under current trajectory is certain in less than 50 years.
1.5C increase = Bad news for our civilisation.
2C increase = Fight for survival
3C increase = Extinction of humanity.
Any of those increases - bad news for all life on our planet.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 28 July, 2019, 11:48:31 PM
Sorry, a bit more - I realise the above came over as a bit ‘doomist’.

It’s very easy to fall into despair, or be ‘doomist’ about the situation.  Here’s some stuff you can do, which both aids the cause for preservation, and makes you feel useful.

Join Extinction Rebellion:

https://rebellion.earth/


Read Professor Julia Steinberger’s impressive Toolkit/To Do List:

https://medium.com/@JKSteinberger/an-audacious-toolkit-actions-against-climate-breakdown-part-1-a-is-for-advocacy-7baa108f00e9


Sign the pledge to go flight-free in 2020:

https://www.flightfree.co.uk/


Plant a tree:

https://www.carbonfootprint.com/plantingtrees.html


Practise what you preach - some ideas from the experts:

Friends of the Earth

https://friendsoftheearth.uk/climate-change/what-can-I-do-to-stop-climate-change


Greenpeace

https://www.greenpeace.org.uk/what-we-do/climate/


Union of Concerned Scientists

https://www.ucsusa.org/what-can-i-do-about-climate-change


The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/climate-change-what-you-can-do-campaigning-installing-insulation-solar-panels


Couldn’t be bothered with the links? Here’s a TLDR version:

Be an advocate (see Steinberg link for more on this) - spread the word!
Cycle, walk, or use mass transport - dump the car.
If you’re stuck with a car, look at the electric options.
Stop eating meat - it has a huge impact on CO2 emissions.
Dry your clothes outside.
Buy a steel water bottle, fill from taps - stop buying single-use plastic.
Learn to grow your own food.
Learn to make your own household cleaners (it’s really easy!)
Move to a renewable energy supplier.
Find out where your sustainability group is - go meet them!
Find out where your ‘plant a tree’ group is - go meet them!
Reuse, repair, recycle EVERYTHING.
Write to your MP.
Write to the PM.
JOIN EXTINCTION REBELLION.





I remember back when I was about 21-22 I was sat up one night with a friend at a shared house, we being the last standing after a party. Our conversation moved away from the frivolities of the day and got deep.

I have been environmentally aware, ever since I was about 13, and that night that’s what the conversation turned to. My position was that if the current rate of consumption continued unchecked, meaning every resource, not just fossil fuels, then humanity was in for a serious kicking.

My friend was a biologist - he disagreed, as he’d seen a lot of work amongst his peers and the wider community that showed conservation was happening, and scientific truth was being told to power.

“No mate”, I said. “We need more action on this - much more. We are seriously burning through the Earth’s resources. We can’t sustain this.”

“Alright then Dave. Put a timescale to this. How long do you reckon we have?”

“Thirty years” I replied, “and if we don’t turn it around in that time, our civilisation is gone.”

He smiled at me. “No mate” he said, “you’re being overly pessimistic. We’ll have taken control of the situation by then”

“30 years.” I responded. “You mark my words.”

He remained optimistic.

That was 25 years ago. I often wonder where he is now, if he remembers the conversation, and what he thinks of the current situation.

Because, unfortunately, it seems I was correct. I so wish I had been wrong that night. Oh god, do I wish I had been wrong. I do wish the scientific truth he spoke of hadn’t been battered down time and again by greedy profiteers.

However, England and Scotland broke their temperature records the other day. Europe is still gripped in a dangerous heatwave. Germany also broke its temperature record last week. The last time it broke its temperature record was the day before!

It’s happening the world over. Extreme weather events, once a rarity, are now a common occurrence. Droughts, floods, critical temperatures, storms, hail the size of your fist, water running out, crops failing. All over the world.

Scientists are now telling us that we are past a point, and millions will die. What we have left is damage control, if we act now, to stop millions dead becoming billions dead.

It is so easy to be ‘doomist’ about this, to sit back and say “Ah, fuck it then, we’re too late.” But I keep recalling my friend, my gentle optimistic scientist comrade, the smile on his face, his reassurance that we can do something about it. His hope.

And he’s right, we absolutely can. We can stop this horror extending to the sixth extinction event. We can pull this back, and halt any further damage. We are in for a kicking, but we can stop it being a mortal wound for us, and the lifeforms we share this wonderful, crazy planet with.

We must act now. Right now.

So that’s what I’m going to do. Despite everything I see, hear, and read on the subject I am going to cling on to the hope and optimism of my biologist friend, and do everything I can. I would like everyone who reads this to do the same.

Take your own individual actions to reduce your impact, but more than anything else, speak truth to power, like so many have been doing and continue to do. Say “no more!” and hold the corporations and governments accountable for their every resource-stripping, profiteering, cataclysmic action.

We have to try. We HAVE to. Because the alternative... well, there is no alternative.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 29 July, 2019, 06:35:44 AM

Good posts, SM, thank you. It'll take me a while to go through all the links but there's a lot here I agree with, some I don't and some I'm not sure about.

Fundamentally, though, irrespective of our differences, I do agree - very strongly - that we must clean up our act.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 29 July, 2019, 10:50:53 AM
What’s stuck with me from that HuffPo piece – and some of the links above – is that notion this is it. The idea my 5yo might not live to a good age, because of the manner in which this planet is being ruined. That still makes me want to break down right now. The feeling is an odd mix of helplessness and grief. And all around, we see countries suggesting they might do something about removing most of the harm by 2050. It’s fucking insane.

The Earth, of course, will be fine. Life *will* survive, unless we nuke the place into oblivion (and possibly even then). The Earth has survived extinction events, and will survive this one. But humanity won’t – at least in any recognisable form. But when you still have people in power saying “well, it’s probably not us” and inferring that “something will come along” to deal with peak oil (and all the other peaks), it’s just baffling.

The links are something, though.

Cycle, walk, or use mass transport - dump the car: mini-IP demanded we walk into town yesterday, when neighbours went on their bikes. So that was a first (and a good thing). Also, town is a long way for a 5yo…

If you’re stuck with a car, look at the electric options: we need to fight for better infrastructure here. (We went hybrid with our new car, because electric wasn’t viable for us. We do, however, at least only have one car, which surprises people.)

Stop eating meat - it has a huge impact on CO2 emissions: this is the one I wish I could do, but a decade of digestive disorder has left vegetarianism an impossibility. (Mrs IP’s also got a slew of allergies, meaning we had to dial things back at speed.)

Dry your clothes outside: we got some ‘ceiling lines’ for clothes drying. They’re really handy. Lines can be lowered, clothes can be added, and then they’re up and out of the way. (Can’t do outside drying – hayfever and a million fucking wasps this year.)

Buy a steel water bottle, fill from taps - stop buying single-use plastic: working on this one. I’m pretty shite at the water thing. Any recommendations for good bottles.

Learn to grow your own food: heh. Tried this. Failed dismally. What’s the opposite of green fingers? Still, we have a tomato plant again. Baby steps.

Learn to make your own household cleaners (it’s really easy!): any good links? We also have a new store in town that does refillable for cleaners and some staples like rice. It’s a first here, and we need to use that more than the supermarkets. (The supermarkets are bonkers also. Morrisons is banning plastic wrap for fruit and veg, and has you take your own tubs in for meat. And then they use plastic bags for delivery, and single-use plastic when handling meat. ARGH! So close!)

Anyway, thanks for attempting to balance the doom with some shiny. We need more of the latter – some kind of hope and positivity.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: sheridan 29 July, 2019, 12:52:45 PM
It’s happening the world over. Extreme weather events, once a rarity, are now a common occurrence. Droughts, floods, critical temperatures, storms, hail the size of your fist, water running out, crops failing. All over the world.

Not to make light of the situation, but that list of extreme weather events reminds me of something...


(https://mi.fancaps.net/cartoonthumb.php?/Galleries/Flash_Gordon_1980/Flash_Gordon_1980_Screenshot_0023.jpg)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Tiplodocus 29 July, 2019, 03:15:35 PM
"Stop eating meat - it has a huge impact on CO2 emissions: this is the one I wish I could do, but a decade of digestive disorder has left vegetarianism an impossibility. (Mrs IP’s also got a slew of allergies, meaning we had to dial things back at speed.)"

That's bad luck, and I hope it's not too bad for you,  because it really is one of the easiest things you can do with a big impact. Plus, you know, there's the ethical side. 

But nothing stopping the rest of you giving up meat, eggs and dairy.

<<ducks>>

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Link Prime 29 July, 2019, 03:32:13 PM
<<ducks>>

Delicious with plum sauce.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Hawkmumbler 29 July, 2019, 03:36:49 PM
There's a huge divide between consuming meat and consuming battery farmed meat. I'll never stop putting emphasis on the point that eating meat isn't itself the problem, but battery farming. Eating meat less, and from locally sourced butchers, has just as much an effect as veganism.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 29 July, 2019, 03:53:02 PM
That's bad luck, and I hope it's not too bad for you,  because it really is one of the easiest things you can do with a big impact. Plus, you know, there's the ethical side.
Believe me, I don’t love looking at a pile of bones once I’ve finished a chicken. I’m not wired that way. But also, when the list of things you actually can eat is dropping by the year, you end up favouring an ability to function over everything else. If I gave up chicken and eggs, I’d basically be fucked. Dairy’s gone, albeit not because I wanted it to be.
 
There's a huge divide between consuming meat and consuming battery farmed meat. I'll never stop putting emphasis on the point that eating meat isn't itself the problem, but battery farming. Eating meat less, and from locally sourced butchers, has just as much an effect as veganism.
This also. I recall seeing some figures stating that lettuce was, for the most part, just a massive fucking waste of time, energy and resources. Also, the manner in which almonds are farmed is hugely problematic. (Almonds are of course used in a lot of vegan food – be that processed or home-made.)

Still, if everyone started being a bit less rubbish, I guess that’s a start. Not sure how I can make peace with the zero flights thing, mind. I could live with fewer holidays, but I couldn’t say no to Mrs IP wanting to visit her family in Iceland. (Technically, you _can_ get there by boat, I suppose; but it takes about a week, and it’s by haulage ferry.)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Tiplodocus 29 July, 2019, 05:08:46 PM
"Eating meat less, and from locally sourced butchers, has just as much an effect as veganism."

I'd be interested to see figures. To be sustainable from locally sourced butchers I would imagine you'd get very little meat per person per week.

But good on you for making the effort to eat less and make sure you source everything locally and sustainably.

I'd still rather we stopped killing the poor buggers enirely though. It's for no reason other than habit/convenience. (Cases like IP excepted)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 29 July, 2019, 11:47:10 PM
Those steel bottles are currently a fiver in Tesco and are the same quality as the ones you get on Amazon for at least a tenner.

Re doing stuff to reduce your own individual impact, I’m all for it, as you need to practise what you preach.

However, do not for one moment let the big corporations shift the responsibility of climate change and CO2 emissions on to the general public - that is a massive distraction technique, to hide their responsibility.

A few links for you:

https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2017/jul/10/100-fossil-fuel-companies-investors-responsible-71-global-emissions-cdp-study-climate-change



https://fullfact.org/news/are-100-companies-causing-71-carbon-emissions/

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Top_contributors_to_greenhouse_gas_emissions


So yeah, individual action is great, but the real thrust of the climate change movement, the one that can do the most good, is to hold those fekkers accountable.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IAMTHESYSTEM 30 July, 2019, 03:46:25 PM
China's at the top of that list. All that lovely Coal is powering China's rise to Superpower. How do you persuade the Chinese to reduce their CO2 emissions when you helped prime the ticking time bomb of Global warming with your 19th Century Industrial revolution? 'That's a bit rich coming from you,' the Chinese are bound to replay. In that lays the dilemma one that sadly I fear can not be solved. Self-interests means China will keep using coal until something as useful and cheaper comes along. I've read that some of the Plasma powered reactors are just 30-40 years away or so but there are still a few technical problems to solve.   
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 30 July, 2019, 05:16:57 PM
'That's a bit rich coming from you,' the Chinese are bound to replay.
“We can sell everyone solar panels”, more like. If anything, Trump is going to be a bigger roadblock than the Chinese at the moment.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 31 July, 2019, 12:17:43 AM
Bizarrely, WalesOnline, of all places, summarised nicely the arguments put forward by scientists regarding the approach to major polluters like India and China.

It’s a fairly short article, and the commentary about India and China starts maybe a third of the way down;

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/climate-change-warming-extinction-rebellion-16627664


Interestingly, China is working to reduce their coal consumption and move towards renewables. This Wiki article is a fairly in-depth read on the subject:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_in_China



If you’re looking at CO2 output per capita, the UAE takes the biscuit, with the US not far behind (and the UK not far behind the US).
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 31 July, 2019, 12:28:14 AM
Here’s more from Professor Mann about individual actions being ok, but that they’re diverting attention and responsibility from corporations and the fossil fuel industry.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2019/06/03/climate-change-requires-collective-action-more-than-single-acts-column/1275965001/

Basically, for us to get on top of this fossil fuels must stay in the ground.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 31 July, 2019, 01:12:03 AM
If you’re on Twitter and want to stay abreast of developments, here are a few folk to follow:

@MichaelEMann

Michael Evan Mann is an American climatologist and geophysicist, currently director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University, who has contributed to the scientific understanding of historic climate change based on the temperature record of the past thousand years.


@drkatemarvel

Kate Marvel is a climate scientist and science writer based in New York City. She is an Associate Research Scientist at NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia Engineering'sDepartment of Applied Physics and Mathematics, and writes regularly for Scientific American in her column "Hot Planet.


@khayhoe

Katharine Anne Scott Hayhoe is an atmospheric scientist and professor of political science at Texas Tech University, where she is director of the Climate Science Center. Her videos in the true nature of climate change in 5 minute bites are great to watch.


@jacquelyngill

Jacquelyn Gill is a paleoecologist and Assistant Professor of climate scienceat the University of Maine. She posts regularly on a variety of climate change subjects.


@jksteinberger

Julia K. Steinberger is Professor of Ecological Economics at the University of Leeds. She studies the relationships between the use of resources and performance of societies. She wrote this great toolkit for environmental activism:

https://medium.com/@JKSteinberger/an-audacious-toolkit-actions-against-climate-breakdown-part-1-a-is-for-advocacy-7baa108f00e9


@ed_hawkins

Ed Hawkins is a Professor of climate change at Leeds University. He recently came to the public eye with the #showyourstripes campaign, via a website that allows you to choose your country and have the temperature record for about 130 years turned into a coloured ‘bar code’ type square that illustrates very well the hike in warming. Try it yourself here:

https://showyourstripes.info/


@geraldkutney

Gerald Kutney is Managing Director of Sixth Element Sustainable Management, a renewable energy technologies consultancy, and was until recently Adjunct Professor of Environmental Sciences at the University of Northern British Columbia. He is a prominent Twitter advocate for global action on climate change.



@kevpluck

A data analyst and climate change expert, renowned for putting data into understandable graphical form. His current project is charting global ice melt. However, he has also created fascinating (but scary) moving graphics charting the increasing frequency of temperature extremes around the globe over the last 150 years.


@myGridGB

Gives regular updates on UK energy consumption, breaking down how the energy was created on a percentage basis, as per this example:

‘Britain's electricity mix at midnight on 31st Jul 2019

Nuclear 25.4% Gas 25.9% Coal 0.0%
Wind 24.5% Solar 0.0% Hydro 1.0%
Biomass 10.5% Import 12.4% Storage 0.0% Other 0.3%

Generation 22GW
Carbon intensity 172 gCO2eq/kWh
 vs a target of 50-100 gCO2e/kWh by 2030’


@severeweatherUK

Provides daily updates of severe weather around Europe, including the UK. Recent reports have included the supercell thunderstorms across Wales and south of England, flooding across Poland and Baltics, and hail the size of your fist in Italy and Romania.



@ExtinctionR

Extinction Rebellion - follow to see updates on the peaceful mass movement around the world, plus articles on climate change.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: JamesC 31 July, 2019, 11:57:09 AM
Water bottles - we got ours from TK Maxx really cheap. They always seem to have loads of them.

I'm going further down the line of vegtarianism all the time. I eat very little meat and could really cut it out altogether but I value the convenience of being able to eat whatever's offered. Basically I don't buy or cook meat but if my mum offers me something I don't want to make things awkward for her. It's also useful when on holiday or when out with friends.
We have our own chickens now (I couldn't imagine eating them!) which are basically pets who give an edible by-product so I'm very comfortable with eating the eggs.
I wish I could cut out dairy but can't find a milk or cheese alternative that I can get on with (oat milk came closest). I've massively cut down though.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 31 July, 2019, 03:24:49 PM
Vegan ‘cheese’ is… yeah. Not good. I eat lacto-free, which of course isn’t helpful from a “don’t piss off the animals” standpoint. Chickens… Hmm. Might be a problem around here, mind, given how many foxes there are locally.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Tiplodocus 31 July, 2019, 08:19:12 PM
You do get some nice vegan "cheeses" but they are best not thought of as cheese. The options are deffo better now than they were 7 years ago. So I guess that's one reason to thank hipsters for all going vegan
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 02 August, 2019, 01:51:58 PM
Some rather alarming news from the Greenland Ice Sheet. Last month saw the most significant spike in melt than ever before, by an order of magnitude.

Check out the graphed data here - blue line is average over the last 100 years, red line is this year.

http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

Why is this important? Well, this could be one of those ‘tipping points’ or ‘positive feedback loops’ scientists have been warning about.

First up, it means a shitload of CO2 and methane (a warming gas with 28 times the warming power of CO2) hitting atmosphere.

As there is less ice to reflect the rays of sun back into space (the albedo effect) that promotes more warning, and more ice loss.

This then increases the risk of more melt at the Arctic and Antarctic generally. Again, the less ice there, the less the albedo effect kicks in, which again allows more warming.

Then there’s the risk to the jet stream, which circles the globe in a big wavy line, usually quite quickly. The speed of the jet stream allows weather to vary quickly across any landmass in its path (ie Europe).

This is driven by cold air/water coming from the north, and hot air/water coming from the tropics. However, the jet stream is very sluggish at the moment as hotter air is coming up, and less cold/warmer than usual air is coming down.

This means weather is becoming more static - highs and lows of pressure are staying fixed in place for a lot longer. It’s thanks to this that Europe is suffering this abysmal heatwave.

So when we hit the tipping point it is possible we’ll see s cataclysmic collapse of the jet stream. Climatologists and meteorologists are desperately trying to predict what this means, but I see the term ‘extreme weather conditions’ bandied about a lot.

Have a good weekend folks!  :D
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 04 August, 2019, 02:47:28 PM

It's not something I'm into but, if you're looking for something to do, you might like this: https://nori.com/

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 06 August, 2019, 04:04:46 PM

It's not something I'm into but, if you're looking for something to do, you might like this: https://nori.com/

Yowsers!  That's quite inventive - and quite a challenge!  Good 'out of the box' thinking going on there.  'Capitalism isn't working for the environment - but Blockchain might!'

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 07 August, 2019, 02:17:20 AM

Hmm. Tried to link to oic on Imgur, but app doesn’t give me the BBCide. Anyone know a solution?
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Dandontdare 07 August, 2019, 02:26:01 AM
Sorry mate, I don't even understand the question.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 07 August, 2019, 12:45:53 PM
Sorry, typing while half asleep!

I was tring to post an image direct to this thread using the  BBCode last night, the source of the pic being Imgur.  Previously it had given the option of a BBCode link to insert directly into a forum post like this.

However, I couldn't see how to do that from the Imgur app I installed, and was shouting out for assistance.  I tried to use the pic URL directly, attaching the BBCode myself, but it wasn't playing.


Anyway, cut a long story short, it was a great graph which showed the potential drivers of climate change.  You may hear 'deniers' say things like "it's CO2 from volcanoes" or "it's the grand solar minimum/sunspots/other sun related thing".

What the graph did was split out the scientific studies of these:

man-made greenhouse gases
sun activity
other environmental impacts such as volcanoes
orbital

...charting them separately and then together in one sheet.  It was blindingly obvious that the main driver by a ridiculously huge degree was man-made greenhouse gases (CO2 etc).

Sorry, probably meaningless without the graph.  I guess you had to be there.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 07 August, 2019, 02:59:56 PM
What’s the URL?
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 07 August, 2019, 03:19:32 PM
What’s the URL?

https://i.imgur.com/OE5EakS.jpg

(https://i.imgur.com/OE5EakS.jpg)

Edited to embed image — IP
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 07 August, 2019, 03:22:05 PM
What’s the URL?

https://i.imgur.com/OE5EakS.jpg

Here’s also a link to the original article, which is well worth a read.

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/23112018/infographic-national-climate-assessment-us-economy-extreme-weather-global-warming-cost-lives-wildfires-agriculture-federal-report
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 07 August, 2019, 07:26:14 PM
Remember I mentioned the jet stream and it’s sudden unpredictability?

More on that here:

https://www.ft.com/content/591395fe-b761-11e9-96bd-8e884d3ea203
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 08 August, 2019, 06:47:16 PM
The IPCC promised to release three reports covering specific subjects related to the climate effect on the environment.

Here’s the first, which is all about climate and land.  One interesting finding is that while the global average temperature increas so far is about 1.1C, if we look at the average for land only it is 1.5C.

Section B is interesting in terms of protecting food security. The report earlier highlights that 1.5C increase is definitely going to have an effect on food availability, and 2C or above is going to mean a crash in food supplies (On a side note, the US Midwest is already experiencing food instability - check out #noplant19 on Twitter - it’s Midwest farmers recording how record rainfall and flooding has prevented planting crop staples like corn. Some couldn’t plant st all, and some planted late, meaning substandard crops come harvest. September is going to be an interesting time for Americans - certain crops and ethanol will be in very short supply, so prices will rocket and there will be food shortages for both humans and livestock).

Section B talks about mitigating crop loss, and a variety of adaptations to farming people will have to make around the globe if we stand any chance of avoiding famine as the temperature continues to rise.

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/08/4.-SPM_Approved_Microsite_FINAL.pdf
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Leigh S 08 August, 2019, 06:54:41 PM
at this point, I'm leaning to believe that the so called deniers know exactly what the impact will be and are rubbing their hands waiting to exploit the chaos
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 08 August, 2019, 06:56:39 PM
While the IPCC Land report is alarming in and of itself, some critics think it has missed a vital opportunity by not highlighting the massive CO2 impact of livestock farming, not just in how much it costs in terms of CO2 to rear the animals, but also the loss of carbon sinks such as natural woodlands.

George Monbiot in The Guardian is one such critic, and his analysis is well worth a read:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/08/ipcc-land-climate-report-carbon-cost-meat-dairy
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 08 August, 2019, 06:57:57 PM
at this point, I'm leaning to believe that the so called deniers know exactly what the impact will be and are rubbing their hands waiting to exploit the chaos

Oh yeah, totally agree - the disaster capitalists are rubbing their greedy paws together in glee at the prospect of increased shareholder value as the world burns and millions starve.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 08 August, 2019, 08:00:45 PM
Read MEP-Rees-Mogg’s hideous articles along those lines, talking about water being an opportunity for capitalists.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 10 August, 2019, 03:13:05 PM
This interview with Professor Michael A Mann is well worth thirty minutes of your time.

He and Jenna Spinelle discuss the many attempts by the fossil fuel interests to discredit efforts to raise awareness of the climate crisis.

https://radio.wpsu.org/post/democracy-works-michael-manns-journey-through-climate-wars
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 16 August, 2019, 06:45:53 PM
‪So, climate change has started affecting our food supply.

I mentioned #noplant19 previously - a hashtag where farmers in the US Midwest showed the extreme weather severely disrupted corn planting.‬

The US is already low in some staples, and the crop yield in September is likely to be very low.

‪Now the UK has crop shortages due to extreme weather - the floods in Lincolnshire and heatwave in the EU.‬

‪Stock up folks - this isn’t going away.‬

‪#ClimateEmergency ‬

‪https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/cauliflower-shortage-uk-floods-heatwave-europe-a9055121.html‬

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 16 August, 2019, 06:48:50 PM
And therein lies the problem: often you can’t stockpile. How do you stockpile cauliflower?
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: radiator 16 August, 2019, 10:10:43 PM
Climate Change Denial: A Measured Response

https://youtu.be/RLqXkYrdmjY (https://youtu.be/RLqXkYrdmjY)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Hawkmumbler 17 August, 2019, 08:44:41 AM
Aahh Harris is a good lad, all his videos are worth a watch and are superb at deconstructing the rising stupidity of alt-right consoiracy nuts.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 17 August, 2019, 02:32:41 PM
And therein lies the problem: often you can’t stockpile. How do you stockpile cauliflower?

Someone jokingly suggested making a ton of piccalilli, but there may be some legs in that. Pickling seasonal produce may be a way to ensure we have a yearly supply. To late for cauliflower though - hopefully it’ll recover next season.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 17 August, 2019, 02:34:45 PM
Climate Change Denial: A Measured Response

https://youtu.be/RLqXkYrdmjY (https://youtu.be/RLqXkYrdmjY)

Yeah, seen that. Very funny. Loved the bit where he responds to that dickhead senator and asks how people can sell their houses and move inland when they’re underwater.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Dandontdare 17 August, 2019, 09:26:50 PM
It's OK if your nation is underwater - there's still fruit out there: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-17/fiji-slams-australia-deputy-pm-for-climate-forum-fruit-comment/11424444 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-17/fiji-slams-australia-deputy-pm-for-climate-forum-fruit-comment/11424444)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 18 August, 2019, 11:28:49 AM
Meanwhile, an Irish property developer (who 10 years ago went under to the tune of €100 millon, some of it owed to me, only to be bailed out by the taxpayer, also me) proposes building 65,000 homes on land reclaimed from the sea, in an area where residents successfully lobbied to have their new flood defences *lowered* by a foot because it spoiled the view from their cars.

Our children are going to die screaming in fire and flood and foot riot, and these people are going to watch from their air conditioned mountain retreats and say we should just have got ourselves better jobs.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 18 August, 2019, 02:53:16 PM
And now I'm arguing elsewhere with an Irish lad who doesn't 'believe' in sea level rise, but from his TL appears to believe every conspiracy theory going.  We. Are. F**ked.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Hawkmumbler 18 August, 2019, 03:22:55 PM
There was an interesting series of articles I read about how the alt-right utilize meme culture to integrate antisemitic conspiracy theories and science denial to softly propagate far right conspiracies.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 19 August, 2019, 04:53:53 PM
Someone asked previously for some links to making your own cleaning products. Basically, stock up on bicarb and white vinegar. We use the bicarb for general cleaning, and white vinegar as a fabric conditioner.

More here:

https://www.goodhousekeeping.com/home/cleaning/tips/a24885/make-at-home-cleaners/
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 21 August, 2019, 01:17:28 AM
This 50 minute talk by Earth Systems Scientist and member of the Australian Climate Board, Professor Will Steffan, is one of the clearest, most understandable, and engaging I have seen. He presents the facts plainly, calmly, and without hyperbole or alarmism.

That said, the facts speak for themselves.

Please take the time to watch it. It’ll help you wrap your head around how we got here in the first place, what different degrees of warming will mean for civilisation, and explains clearly such things as the carbon budget, and tipping points.

The latter half is the REALLY interesting stuff.

https://youtu.be/OzQsjuzr3_M
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: radiator 21 August, 2019, 09:53:53 PM
Climate Change Denial: A Measured Response

https://youtu.be/RLqXkYrdmjY (https://youtu.be/RLqXkYrdmjY)

Yeah, seen that. Very funny. Loved the bit where he responds to that dickhead senator and asks how people can sell their houses and move inland when they’re underwater.

That's Ben Shapiro - not a senator, but very much a dickhead. He's probably best known in the UK for making an absolute fool of himself while getting interviewed by Andrew Neil a couple of months ago.

https://youtu.be/6VixqvOcK8E (https://youtu.be/6VixqvOcK8E)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: JOE SOAP 21 August, 2019, 10:09:12 PM
Listening to Ben Shapiro is like a bee going in and out of earshot.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 22 August, 2019, 12:37:30 PM
Awful news about the Amazon rainforest up in flames 80% more than usual, as a result of forest clearance for ranching and warmer climate exacerbating the risk of wildfires.

We absolutely need the Amazon intact if we stand any chance of keeping warming under control.  It is one of the biggest carbon sinks on land - without it, CO2 goes up.  When it burns, that's also gigatons of CO2 entering the atmosphere.

If you watched the vid I posted above, you'll understand how the Amazon could be one tipping point that could cause a Tipping Cascade - like dominoes going over, one climate disaster set off after another. 

The low summer ice at the Arctic is one such tipping point that has basically already tipped - scientists are predicting sea ice during summer is unlikely to be a thing going forward.

Anyway, it's easy to fall into anger and despair over it, so I'm posting this article that has some advice at the bottom to turn some of the negative emotion around the Amazon burning into positive action:

https://www.cnet.com/how-to/the-amazon-rainforest-is-on-fire-what-we-know-so-far-and-how-you-can-help/
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 25 August, 2019, 06:52:28 PM

Drying Atmosphere Spurs Decline in
 Vegetation Growth. (https://www.aaas.org/news/drying-atmosphere-spurs-decline-vegetation-growth)

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 27 August, 2019, 10:18:24 AM

Amazonia in Flames – Brazil’s Bolsonaro Is a World Criminal – Encouraging Jungle Burning for Private Exploitation of Freed Land. (https://mailchi.mp/390f719c9d9c/amazonia-in-flames-brazils-bolsonaro-is-a-world-criminal?e=991398cff9)


African jungles also seem to be on fire, but few people are talking about that.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 27 August, 2019, 06:28:48 PM
There are wildfires springing up everywhere. There always are this time of year, but pretty much every country where wildfires are common are saying this year the extreme weather is causing significant increases.

And, of course, there are some countries who are experiencing a spate of wildfires, where this ISN’T the norm.

The Arctic

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/arctic-circle-wildfires-climate-change-greenland-alaska-siberia-photographs-a9015851.html


Siberia (Putin has FINALLY declared a state of emergency)

https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/goddard/2019/huge-wildfires-in-russias-siberian-province-continue


Canada

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Alberta_wildfires


Alaska, and many other US states

https://edition-m.cnn.com/2019/08/21/us/wildfires-in-12-states-alaska-mckinley-fire/index.html?r=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.co.uk%2F


Australia

https://edition-m.cnn.com/2019/03/04/australia/australia-fires-intl/index.html?r=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.co.uk%2F


New Zealand

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/10/new-zealand-wildfires-set-to-worsen-as-thousands-flee


Indonesia

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-49444325


Germany

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2019/06/27/530631.htm


Spain

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/27/hundreds-of-firefighters-tackle-blaze-in-north-east-spain


Bolivia

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/26/bolivia-wildfires-brazil-amazon


Greece

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cxng76w24ekt/greece-wildfires


And Africa, as mentioned above:

https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/fires-burning-angola-congo-amazon-maps-190827012619287.html


This 11 minute interview with Prof. Michael Mann is worth a listen - cuts through the hyperbole about the Amazon and presents the cold hard facts.

https://t.co/71S0AFd7vZ


The long and short of it is, wildfires are likely to become more frequent and ferocious as the climate changes.

This is one of those tipping points I mentioned previously. As we all know, forests are carbon sinks. When they burn they release the carbon, and of course there are less trees to absorb CO2. This adds to the warming effect, which in turn exacerbates wildfires further, burning more trees, releasing more CO2, and not being able to draw down as much CO2, which adds to the warming effect, etc etc etc. You see where this is going.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 27 August, 2019, 09:17:12 PM
Oh man, check this out. This is what scientists are up against. Every. Single. Day.

Respected scientist Brian Cox debates with an Australian Senator who disputes man-made climate change.

Things can only get better! 🤞

https://youtu.be/lf3TGmaLXow
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 28 August, 2019, 11:00:42 AM
Seriously, check out the 8 min clip above, because it’s so unusual to see Brian Cox so angry. He literally THROWS the science at a man-made climate change denying Aussie senator!

This is what scientists are facing EVERY BLOODY DAY.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 30 August, 2019, 10:09:15 AM

Bacteria Feeding On Arctic Algae Blooms Can Seed Clouds[/i]

 (http://astrobiology.com/2019/08/bacteria-feeding-on-arctic-algae-blooms-can-seed-clouds.html)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 01 September, 2019, 11:45:26 PM

Bacteria Feeding On Arctic Algae Blooms Can Seed Clouds[/i]
 (http://astrobiology.com/2019/08/bacteria-feeding-on-arctic-algae-blooms-can-seed-clouds.html)

Thanks Sharky - that’s really interesting! I particularly liked the note about aerosols in general, and how such particles affect cloud formation.

I believe aerosols are one of the topics in the course I mentioned previously. It started today!

Sign up for this free course, by Michael E Mann. You may recognise him from Attenborough’s ‘The State of the Planet’.

He is a professor in Penn State University, famous for the ‘hockey stick’ CO2 versus climate change study. He has also spent the last 30 years battling with the fossil fuel industry who tried to discredit him, and bury his findings. He’s a legend amongst climate scientists.

His course is absolutely free for anyone wanting to get to grips with what this is all about, and what we can do to stop it getting any worse.

You could also sign up for it and pay £40 for marked coursework and an internationally recognised accreditation at the end (which was my choice)!

I have started it today, and even the introductory talks are fascinating!

Go here to find out more:

https://www.edx.org/course/climate-change-the-science-and-global-impact




: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 14 September, 2019, 04:25:16 PM

The Milankovitch Cycle. (https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Milankovitch/milankovitch_3.php)

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 14 September, 2019, 05:38:46 PM

The Milankovitch Cycle. (https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Milankovitch/milankovitch_3.php)

Thanks Sharky! I’ve literally just covered that in module 4 of the course I’m doing! It’s a blow-by-blow on climate modelling, using the past to predict the future, and this cycle is featured in it.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 14 September, 2019, 07:52:03 PM

Cool :)

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 15 September, 2019, 09:05:04 AM
Here you go - this webpage was included in my course reading materials, and is a fascinating breakdown of climate modelling, including the cycle you mentioned above:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 15 September, 2019, 10:30:07 AM

Cheers! I'll have a read after work.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 18 September, 2019, 01:21:06 PM
Anyone joining the Climate Strike protests on Friday?

We’ve got one placard painted up already.

(https://imgur.com/gallery/hYDJxcd)

(https://i.imgur.com/zPCYJxq.jpg)


Not sure where your nearest is?

Follow this link and scroll to the bottom of the page for a map.

https://globalclimatestrike.net/#join


: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 18 September, 2019, 01:45:21 PM
Also, get your climate temperature stripes from:

https://showyourstripes.info


It is a cracking website by Professor Ed Hawkins of Reading University. He wanted a striking way of illustrating temperature changes between 1850 and 2018.

Here is the global version, but you can tune it to your country if you follow the link above.

(https://i.imgur.com/WLMBOXt.png)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 20 September, 2019, 03:04:19 AM
Anyone else about to hit the streets?

(https://i.imgur.com/pthB5MN.jpg)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 20 September, 2019, 11:25:48 AM
Fab banners.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 21 September, 2019, 10:18:51 AM
Fab banners.

Cheers dude!

Brilliant result yesterday. People in over 160 countries marched. Best estimate is 6 million plus marching worldwide!  Some of the pics popping up from places like Berlin, Tasmania, places in Africa etc, are astonishing.

Fab turnout in Cardiff too, and the above banners made the news. Here’s a couple of pics:

(https://i.imgur.com/P9fK2SF.jpg)

(https://i.imgur.com/MqfUGcp.jpg)


Outside Welsh parliament - spot the banners!  :D

(https://i.imgur.com/Hv7WwkW.jpg)


There are a whole host of events still to come, arranged by a variety of groups.  For example, Extinction Rebellion are organising a sit-in of government offices in October, again around the world. Also, many working groups are gathering volunteers from all walks of life to confront policy makers with alternatives that use fewer resources, and proposing sustainable changes.

So much work ahead of us!

In the meantime, my studies on the science of climate change continue. Did the midpoint exam on that Prof. Michael E Mann course - scored 94%, so doing well. Got one question wrong about radiative forcing which was a real ‘Gah!’ moment - that should have been an easy one for me.

Anyway, onwards and upwards.




: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 21 September, 2019, 03:41:32 PM
Amazing stuff. I’ll admit I didn’t really think about this one, but should have. I went on the PV marches, but this was also important. Mind you, I currently have the plague, and so suspect others wouldn’t have been thrilled with that. Kudos to those of you who did make the effort, and got the message out there. Things have come a long way. Let’s hope they go further.

(It’s also wonderful to see people posting comparisons of Greta’s initial protest compared to yesterday. I recognise she didn’t do this herself by any means, but one teenager has been the catalyst for so much good. And I love her response in the US, cutting off the typically patronising bullshit politicians give to kids about them being brave and inspiring. They don’t care. They want you to fucking do something, because they are not yet able to themselves.)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 23 September, 2019, 05:25:58 PM
Well, I'd bet whatever we'll be using for currency in 20 years time that they'll be learning that Greta Thunberg UN Climate Action speech (https://youtu.be/TMrtLsQbaok) in hedge school.  Watching it felt like witnessing a key moment in history, maybe the very last key moment, with no knowledge of the outcome. Deeply affecting.

I'll accept many criticisms of the specific manifesto(s) of the movement, and caveats about the dangers and abuses of figureheads, but I will happily fight anyone who puts that young woman down. And the bunch of patronising feckers in attendance got exactly what they deserved. This isn't funny. This isn't aspirational. This isn't even manageable. We have to change everything. Now.

Our own Taoiseach's contribution: raise Carbon taxes to €80 per tonne by 2030. FOR FUCK'S SAKE.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 23 September, 2019, 05:49:08 PM

That's my worry. Putting all our eggs in the carbon basket seems very dangerous to me, and simply taxing carbon (especially given the inefficiencies and corruption endemic throughout such government solutions) simply cannot be our main strategy.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 23 September, 2019, 07:22:15 PM
Carbon taxes have their place as PART of a much larger solution.  I won't get into their pro's here, but one major problem with focusing almost exclusively on this approach (and its painfully gradual implementation), as Greta so clearly enunciates with regard to the broader picture, is that it pretends that everything can go on as normal, just a wee bit more expensive. It can't. Our systems have to change, not just be tweaked a bit.

Obviously there's a sickening hypocrisy from Yours Truly, who was apparently quite happy to let the selfsame systems that perpetuate suffering through global inequalities, local poverty and disenfranchisement trundle on indefinitely, but only throws a wobbly when the tide of shit finally washes up on his own doorstep.  But this truly is an existential threat to the human world, and I'd rather own my moral inadequacies and do something.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 23 September, 2019, 08:44:26 PM
Well, I'd bet whatever we'll be using for currency in 20 years time that they'll be learning that Greta Thunberg UN Climate Action speech (https://youtu.be/TMrtLsQbaok) in hedge school.  Watching it felt like witnessing a key moment in history, maybe the very last key moment, with no knowledge of the outcome. Deeply affecting.

I'll accept many criticisms of the specific manifesto(s) of the movement, and caveats about the dangers and abuses of figureheads, but I will happily fight anyone who puts that young woman down. And the bunch of patronising feckers in attendance got exactly what they deserved. This isn't funny. This isn't aspirational. This isn't even manageable. We have to change everything. Now.




I 100% agree. To see the normally calm, thoughtful, logical and considered Greta get so angry, with frustration and desperation, made me want to weep.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 23 September, 2019, 09:11:20 PM

Tordels, I agree.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 24 September, 2019, 12:14:44 PM

The most recent two episodes of one of my favourite podcasts by quantum physicist Sean Carroll
, which should be of interest to fans of this thread.

Mindscape Episode 64 | Ramez Naam on Renewable Energy and an Optimistic Future. (https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2019/09/16/64-ramez-naam-on-renewable-energy-and-an-optimistic-future/)

Mindscape Episode 65 | Michael Mann on Why Our Climate Is Changing and How We Know. (https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2019/09/23/65-michael-mann-on-why-our-climate-is-changing-and-how-we-know/)

Enjoy!

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 24 September, 2019, 12:30:46 PM
Great to see Michael E Mann pop up there - thanks Sharky! You need to follow him on Twitter and FB. He’s a goddam living legend.

Check out his book too - total eye-opener.

Sample here:

https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/The_Madhouse_Effect.html?id=LFVxDAAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&source=kp_read_button&redir_esc=y
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 24 September, 2019, 02:52:02 PM
All the emotions yesterday. First Greta’s address to the UN Climate Summit attendees, then this.

(https://i.redd.it/74dlro9jldo31.gif)

(GIF may take a sec to load)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 24 September, 2019, 05:11:46 PM
That complaint those 15 kids are putting in against five countries:

https://childrenvsclimatecrisis.org/
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 24 September, 2019, 07:53:41 PM

Call me cynical, but this smells a bit fishy to me. I'm reminded of the Kony 2012 video, which the US government exploited as an excuse for having troops in Uganda, just after China had begun negotiations to access its newly discovered oilfields. The US now supports Uganda's despotic president, supplying military training and hundreds of millions of dollars. In return, Uganda supplies troops to help US ally Saudi Arabia in Yemen and as security for US forces in Iraq, amongst other things. The search for Kony was quietly dropped in 2017, but the US forces are still there.

This feels like a similar thing, to me. A well-meaning movement catapulted into the limelight and about to be co-opted for something the public wouldn't otherwise swallow.

Hope I'm wrong. Watch what happens, I guess.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 24 September, 2019, 09:10:28 PM
Like Chopper says, all gotta die sometime: I'd rather die on Thunberg's hill than in Trump's swamp, and I think those are now the only two options.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 27 September, 2019, 10:56:13 AM

Climate and the Money Trail. (https://mailchi.mp/e2b7dce82508/climate-and-the-money-trail?e=991398cff9)

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: JayzusB.Christ 27 September, 2019, 11:08:32 AM

Climate and the Money Trail. (https://mailchi.mp/e2b7dce82508/climate-and-the-money-trail?e=991398cff9)

A quick bit of research into the author's background reveals that his theories not only deny the magnitude of climate change and its causes, but also support the idea that oil is not of biological origin.  Sorry, Sharky, but it's hard to take a guy like that seriously.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 27 September, 2019, 11:35:42 AM

Fair enough, but what did you think about the article itself? I think the points he raises bear looking into, if only to disprove them.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: JayzusB.Christ 27 September, 2019, 12:03:39 PM
I think the idea of the push to reduce emissions and the concept of saving our planet being nothing more than a conspiracy to make money is dangerously deluded, and I think that people like the author help to provide the likes of Trump with the excuse they need to keep driving us towards global catastrophe.  Which, by the way, is openly done for the money.

I've said it before and I'll say it again - the powers that be don't need secret plots to fuck ordinary people over. They do it in plain sight, but too many people choose to look the other way or, like the guy who wrote this, go chasing phantoms instead. As for the overwhelming evidence that climate change is largely man-made, I'm not going into that again.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 27 September, 2019, 12:17:02 PM

Well, as I'm trying to tone it down, I'm not going to argue or defend/condemn the man or his work. I found the article interesting, like many posted on this thread and yes, I must admit, it does feed into my view of things. I'll just leave it for individuals to think about.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 27 September, 2019, 12:38:59 PM
I checked out those podcasts you posted earlier Sharky, and they are excellent, although I’m only halfway through the renewable energy one. However, the facts about how much the cost of creating solar panels has dropped is staggering!

I’m other news, I got my certificate in the science and global impact of climate change - 96%! Pleased with that, though the errors that cost me 100% were idiotic. Me not paying attention to the phrasing basically.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 27 September, 2019, 12:43:23 PM
but also support the idea that oil is not of biological origin
Er, sorry, but what? I nearly missed this gem. What does he think oil is? Magic car-powering juice that was squirted into the planet from a gigantic bottle wielded by a god? FFS.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 27 September, 2019, 12:44:46 PM

Glad you liked them, SM. I may not be sold on the prevailing views but I am a firm believer in cleaning up our act right across the board.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 27 September, 2019, 12:46:36 PM
Ah, he’s one of the abiogenic lot, and also doesn’t believe oil is running out. He’s in for a big fucking shock, then.

Yet again, it all smacks of this:

(https://i.imgur.com/up6yu.jpg)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 27 September, 2019, 12:52:25 PM

The Mysterious Origin and Supply of Oil (https://www.livescience.com/9404-mysterious-origin-supply-oil.html)

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 27 September, 2019, 01:55:42 PM
Yes, so our best hope for oil relies on a rare form of the substance existing in vastly greater quantities than thought, and in a manner that’s commercially viable – and even then we’d still be screwed, given that it too would be finite. Again: “What if it’s a big hoax and we create a better world for nothing?”
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 27 September, 2019, 02:39:55 PM

That's a weird leap. All it means is that there's another possibility for oil creation.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 27 September, 2019, 02:43:08 PM
Not really. The anti-Green lot are dead set on “don’t worry – everything is fine”, when it demonstrably isn’t.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 27 September, 2019, 03:04:06 PM

I'm not one of those, whatever it even means. I'm all for finding alternate energy sources but that doesn't necessarily mean throwing out the baby with the bathwater (or the oil).

The more we can develop alternate energy sources, the more we can use oil for other things, such as plastics - which are incredibly useful. Imagine moving away from using oil as a power source, that would mean more is available for plastics - but not the flimsy, one-use objects we have today. Imagine freeing up enough oil so that more can go into manufacturing, giving us thicker plastic bottles that can be washed and reused indefinitely, like the milk bottles of old but with the added bonus of increased durability. Little plastic doodads built to last instead of snapping every few months. Egg boxes, food cans, cutlery, planks - whatever - all designed to be recycled properly instead of simply downcycled like we do today.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 27 September, 2019, 03:27:49 PM
Ye gods, more fossil fuels?!?  We need to keep what we have right where it is, except what we need for getting our asses to Maaaaahs (and building the clean alternatives).  Glass milk bottles are plenty durable, but I wouldn't get too attached to cow's milk if I were you.

I'm currently thinking of how hard it is to separate Americans from their guns, and reflecting on what it's going to be like parting them from their cars.

But mainly I'm feeling like the betrayer of my youthful convictions by betting on nuclear: a 24,000 year half-life doesn't seem so bad when the future of the human world can be measured in decades.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 27 September, 2019, 03:49:13 PM
Renewables everywhere, backed by nuclear, is my take. Which is a take that pisses off just about every political wing.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 27 September, 2019, 03:53:37 PM
Renewables everywhere, backed by nuclear, is my take. Which is a take that pisses off just about every political wing.

That's how you know it's the only right one.  The only slim chance we have, really.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: JayzusB.Christ 27 September, 2019, 03:56:54 PM
Ye gods, more fossil fuels?!?

This oil isn't made of fossils, apparently.

It's the first I've heard of it - not saying it doesn't exist, but saying it does is very different from Engdahl's assertion that no oil is of biological origin.  Which is ridiculous.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 27 September, 2019, 04:21:18 PM

I didn't say more fossil fuels, I said more alternate energy sources so that oil can be used for different things. And not forever - new materials are being developed all the time so that one day we won't need plastics at all. In the meantime, let's use the oil we are pumping in better, cleaner ways. Just dumping oil altogether, at a stroke, might sound good but it isn't going to work. It needs to be phased out - by first concentrating on replacing it as a fuel source and then by developing other materials for manufacturing.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 27 September, 2019, 04:29:39 PM
Just dumping oil altogether, at a stroke, might sound good but it isn't going to work. It needs to be phased out - by first concentrating on replacing it as a fuel source and then by developing other materials for manufacturing.

We need to keep what we have right where it is except what we need to.... [facetious pop culture reference deleted] ... build[ing] the clean alternatives.

Unfortunately 'phasing out' is what we should have been doing 25 years ago. Now we have no choice but to dump oil so fast it's going to really, really, really hurt. Ramping up nuclear (to run parallel with a massive switch to renewables, and electric transport), if we started in earnest right now, is going to take over a decade, and burn a lot of oil to get there - that's all the phasing-out time we have. And best case that's just going to take the edge off.

I'm not going to engage with the fossil/non-fossil oil nonsense. No more distractions. Time's up.

Imagine the fun that's ahead persuading the 1% of the UK population who take 20% of the flights (recent statistic that's in my head, obv not solely a UK issue) of this reality. Look where not-actually-banning-bendy-bananas got us.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Hawkmumbler 27 September, 2019, 04:49:20 PM
Indeed. The time for moderate progression away from fossil fuels has passed, now we must phase them out in the space of years, if not months.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 27 September, 2019, 05:15:27 PM
I must apologise sincerely to Sharky for being rude and dismissive - I'm particularly grumpy after a long day, and some grotty weather seems to be following me around, but those are no excuses.

I'm sorry for my snarky and dismissive remarks, Mark, they were uncalled for.

So.

I do appreciate that oil-like hydrocarbons can be of non-biological origin, and that extensive deposits may exist and may be successfully exploited. My attitude is that this is another lethal 'don't worry, something sciencey will come along, it always does' distraction, an excuse to keep driving, keep flying, Malthus has always been wrong thus far. If we have limitless resources of oil, great, it'll get us out into space, it'll make the housings for our uploaded consciousnesses, whatever: super. But now is not the time.  Now is the time to treat oil like necessary poison, not the free lunch that has all but killed us.

In To Kill a Mockingbird, which I had the great pleasure of re-reading this Summer, Atticus keeps telling Scout and Jem "It's not time to worry yet". It's an endearing parental reassurance, a warning against needless grief: but despite the general wisdom of the axiom, ultimately events overtake his predictions, and he's proved wrong. It's time to worry now, Scout.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 27 September, 2019, 05:30:36 PM



I've just discovered something called a Molten Salt Reactor (http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Current-and-Future-Generation/Molten-Salt-Reactors/) and it's kind of blown my mind a bit. In a MSR, the coolant (molten salt) also contains the nuclear fuel - so it can't melt down. Let me just repeat that - it can't melt down. That's amazing.

Hit one of these reactors with a missile or have the staff all get drunk and fall asleep on Christmas Eve and... Nothing. The reactor's not pressurised (unlike a conventional reactor, which has to run at ~160 atmospheres to stop the water turning into explosive hydrogen) and so if the molten salt leaks out or is left unattended it just cools down into a virtually inert lump.

Molten salt reactors can recycle a lot more of their own waste. Noxious beasties are drawn out of the fuel as gases, processed and then returned as fuel. There is waste but it's less toxic and about 1/3 that of a conventional reactor. These reactors do not yield weapons-grade waste products. Maybe that's why they seem to be keeping this technology off the radar...

Still, there seem to be plenty of companies at least ostensibly looking into this technology, which has been kicking around since at least the 1960s, here's the website of one of them (http://terrestrialenergy.com/imsr-technology/). Let's hope those high-I.Q. boys out there can pull this together - it seems like a win/win to me. And no need for magic or bottled stars at all!

I posted this in 2015. There are technologies out there we should be using, and could have been using for ages. Here's a thought - instead of letting all those carbon taxes go into pension funds, stocks and shares and Al Gore's pocket, why not use them to fund projects like this?

It can be done, probably quite quickly if we put our minds to it, without having to abandon plastics at the same time. Sort the energy first because we'll still need plastics for building electric vehicles and such. Then we can use our new energy sources to find alternatives to plastics (hemp seems like a really good option).
This is not to say there can't be overlap, we could do both at once but the energy problem must, in my opinion, take priority.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 27 September, 2019, 05:36:11 PM

No problem, Tordels - I took no offence and meant none myself. There's a lot of emotion around this subject so it's completely understandable when a bit leaks out.

In other news, I've been working in the lashing down rain myself all day, too - so I'm a bit grumpy myself :)

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 28 September, 2019, 11:57:18 AM
Someone earlier mentioned nuclear, and that one of the issues is the half-life of the nuclear waste.  Interestingly, CO2 in the atmosphere isn’t removed from the atmosphere for many thousands of years longer than the half life of nuclear waste, so the argument is that in terms of time and damage to the planet, nuclear is still far superior than fossil fuels for our energy.  I’ll see if I can find the article where this was discussed.

I’ve always been against nuclear as a go to for fossil fuel replacement, but in the short term it may well bolster our y demand while we wean ourselves off fossil fuels and on to renewables.   I’ve been chatting to a couple of nuclear physicists on Twitter, and all of them have advocated a new type of salt reactor the mechanism of which can avoid meltdowns and similar accidents altogether. One off them supplied me some reading materials on it.  I’ll see I can dig them out.

Either way, energy derived fro the burning of oil, regardless of source,  should be completely off the table.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 28 September, 2019, 12:13:12 PM
So, as I said, I have been very much against nuclear, particularly due to the Fukushima, Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, and Windscale accidents. 

However, the actual mortality rate of this power source is surprisingly low, accidents included, compared to other energy sources. Naturally, the mortality rate for coal tops the list — more here:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/06/10/energys-deathprint-a-price-always-paid/


Here’s the link to the salt reactor I mentioned. Note it is set out by a company affiliated with the nuclear industry, so bias is assumed.  Interesting, nonetheless:

https://www.moltexenergy.com/stablesaltreactors/


Check out the exec summary on this document (page 15 onwards) which discusses integrating nuclear with renewables to wean ourselves off fossil fuels, and with the targets of the Paris summit in mind.  However, bear in in this document was produced by the nuclear energy industry, so bias is assumed:

http://www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/pubs/2019/7299-system-costs.pdf?utm_source=mnb&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pressrelease



: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 03 October, 2019, 12:11:15 PM
Still on the subject of nuclear as a viable stop-gap onside renewables, check out this World Nuclear report today.

Here are some take-aways:


Output grew 2.4% in 2018.
(1.8% due to China)
Price increased 23% in last decade.
(Wind -69%, solar -88%.)

Takes 5-17 yrs longer to build than wind/solar.


https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/IMG/pdf/wnisr2019-lr.pdf
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 03 October, 2019, 12:20:24 PM
From the same report:

Renewables Continue to Thrive
Ɇ A record 165 GW of renewables were added to the world’s power grids in 2018, up from 157 GW added the previous year. The nuclear operating capacity increased by 9 GW6 to reach 370 GW (excluding 25 GW in LTO), a new historic maxi- mum, slightly exceeding the previous peak of 368 GW in 2006.
Ɇ Globally, wind power output grew by 29% in 2018, solar by 13%, nuclear by 2.4%. Compared to a decade ago, non-hydro renewables generate over 1,900 TWh more power, exceeding coal and natural gas, while nuclear produces less.
Ɇ Over the past decade, levelized cost estimates for utility-scale solar dropped by 88%, wind by 69%, while nuclear increased by 23%. Renewables now come in below the cost of coal and natural gas.
Climate Change and Nuclear Power
Ɇ To protect the climate, we must abate the most carbon at the least cost and in the least time, so we must pay attention to carbon, cost, and time, not to carbon alone.
Ɇ Non-Nuclear Options Save More Carbon Per Dollar. In many nuclear countries, new renewables can now compete eco- nomically with existing nuclear power plants. The closure of uneconomic reactors will not directly save CO2 emissions but can indirectly save more CO2 than closing a coal-fired plant, if the nuclear plant’s larger saved operating costs are rein- vested in efficiency or cheap modern renewables that in turn displace more fossil-fueled generation.
Ɇ Non-Nuclear Options Save More Carbon Per Year. While current nuclear programs are particularly slow, current renewables programs are particularly fast. New nuclear plants take 5–17 years longer to build than utility-scale solar or onshore wind power, so existing fossil-fueled plants emit far more CO2 while awaiting substitution by the nuclear option. Stabilizing the climate is urgent, nuclear power is slow.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 03 October, 2019, 01:03:25 PM
I can't argue with the (heartening) numbers, and I'm certainly no natural fan of nuclear, but surely the current problem is providing a necessary backup for renewables during inevitable downtime? No question that maximising renewables is the way to go, but they are not going to meet needs in the short to medium term, so the pressure for always-on coal/oil/gas-fired plants has to be replaced by something.  The cost and speed arguments are interesting, but I don't see how focusing solely on renewables is realistic.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Professor Bear 03 October, 2019, 02:18:16 PM
Who has more money for political donations: a solar panel producer or the nuclear industry?  Things follow the path of least resistance from whatever answer to that question you think is accurate, hence my problem with nuclear is that once you do the nuke lobby's work of normalising usage and putting reactors in cities, it will become our default solution and the phasing-in of renewables will slow, if not halt entirely.  Why do we need to keep looking for pipe-dream solar solutions when we already have nuclear power up and running? Besides, don't wind turbines disrupt the view from your golf course?  Solar panels are kind of unsightly too, now I think of it.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 03 October, 2019, 02:25:43 PM
Very good points, but it assumes the chosen alternative to nuclear will be, or even can be, renewables - I'd be very concerned that it won't be. Normalising nuclear may be something nobody sane wants, but we may have left the 'wants' stage a while back.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Professor Bear 03 October, 2019, 02:48:19 PM
Very good points, but it assumes the chosen alternative to nuclear will be, or even can be, renewables

Your optimism was contagious.  In truth, I don't believe for a moment that the solutions to our problems will come under capitalism.  Our best hope is that the rich can find a way to save themselves so that our species can endure for a little while longer in a Martian dome or a reinforced bunker somewhere.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 03 October, 2019, 05:45:30 PM
I do wonder if we'll ever hear any western leader admit that this ultimate global cock-up is a direct result of the pseudo-capitalist system, in the same way they so readily demonise the local failures of pseudo-communism.

Doing a bit of CPD on the Neolithic last week, and it was very hard to get away from the idea that this awful pass we've come to has been inevitable since a Natufian noticed that some of the collected grains she'd dropped a few weeks earlier were sprouting outside the hut, and thought she could save herself a hell of a lot of walking by repeating the incident on a larger scale. A fatal flaw in human reasoning accidentally exploited by the genus Triticum to spread its descendants across the globe for a handful of millennia before crashing the whole fecking planet.

I'd like to believe that we have the intellectual and technological tools to break the cycle of greed, but unfortunately I have the internet, so I can't even pretend to myself.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 03 October, 2019, 10:42:21 PM
Just want to give a shout out to Phil Kingston, father of my mate Martin. This 83 year old (pictured in the middle) was one of the protestors with the fire engine at the Treasury today.

Absolute legend.

(https://i.imgur.com/RLbJkk0.png)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 03 October, 2019, 11:03:16 PM
Our best hope is that the rich can find a way to save themselves so that our species can endure for a little while longer in a Martian dome or a reinforced bunker somewhere.

Don’t worry P. Bear - they’re already on it. This is an excerpt from ‘This Is Not A Drill’, the Extinction Rebellion handbook. 



(https://i.imgur.com/i3j2bKo.jpg)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 03 October, 2019, 11:05:11 PM
More on Phil Kingston, 83 year old climate protester:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHLWCkgyAd0

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IAMTHESYSTEM 04 October, 2019, 10:21:40 AM
Our best hope is that the rich can find a way to save themselves so that our species can endure for a little while longer in a Martian dome or a reinforced bunker somewhere.

Don’t worry P. Bear - they’re already on it. This is an excerpt from ‘This Is Not A Drill’, the Extinction Rebellion handbook. 
(https://i.imgur.com/i3j2bKo.jpg)

Genuinely terrifying. Our amoral Overlords wish to save themselves rather than help the rest of us. As for the coming environmental disaster when you're a psychopath every day is much like any other. Who cares if a billion die so long as I'm okay, Jack.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Dandontdare 05 October, 2019, 08:49:07 AM
Just want to give a shout out to Phil Kingston, father of my mate Martin. This 83 year old (pictured in the middle) was one of the protestors with the fire engine at the Treasury today.

Didn't quite go according to plan though - Watching them trying and failing to grab that flailing hose was one of the funniest things I've seen in ages - the bit where the bloke in the anorak is almost knocked off his feet is priceless:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-49918971/extinction-rebellion-lose-control-of-fake-blood-hose (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-49918971/extinction-rebellion-lose-control-of-fake-blood-hose)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Hawkmumbler 05 October, 2019, 10:24:17 AM
Sam Reimi's on the phone, he wants his effect back....
(https://media.giphy.com/media/TSvl1AsSfKFDG/giphy.gif)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 05 October, 2019, 09:53:36 PM
So in the land of the climate change deniers and fossil fuel magnates, another (very dangerous) heatwave breaks records.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/10/03/exceptional-october-heatwave-topples-records-another-day-heat-slowly-retreats-south/
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 05 October, 2019, 10:38:59 PM
An article from earlier this year, tracking how much dosh the fossil fuel giants are pumping into lies, obfuscation and denial:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2019/03/25/oil-and-gas-giants-spend-millions-lobbying-to-block-climate-change-policies-infographic/
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 05 October, 2019, 11:07:11 PM
So in the land of the climate change deniers and fossil fuel magnates, another (very dangerous) heatwave breaks records.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/10/03/exceptional-october-heatwave-topples-records-another-day-heat-slowly-retreats-south/

Commentary from the Union of Concerned Scientists about October’s temperatures:

https://blog.ucsusa.org/rachel-licker/an-october-heat-wave-bakes-the-southeast-and-mid-atlantic-is-this-our-future

 
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Funt Solo 06 October, 2019, 10:41:39 PM
The back cover of prog 616 (1989) has a Press For Action message sponsored by the NatWest bank. It has various animals in a rainforest with speech bubbles.

The parrot says "Half of the rain forests have already been destroyed!" [They missed a trick there by not having it say *squawk* at the end.]

The sloth says "They're cutting down our homes!" [A little agitated for a sloth, but I see what they're trying to do.]

Is that an anteater? It says "One fifth of the world's animals and plants are in danger!"

Uh, a tapir? "There aren't many of us left!"

Some kind of monkey: "We're losing our breeding grounds!"

And a sad, lonely gravestone: "Puerto Rican Blue Pigeon Already Extinct".
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 07 October, 2019, 12:44:20 PM
If you see anyone in government or the media say Extinction Rebellion are a violent movement, do not believe a word of it.

(https://i.imgur.com/KxCb0dk.jpg)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: sheridan 07 October, 2019, 01:15:23 PM
The back cover of prog 616 (1989) has a Press For Action message sponsored by the NatWest bank. It has various animals in a rainforest with speech bubbles.

If only it had had an effect on RBoS (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Bank_of_Scotland_Group#Controversies)'s investments (fossil fuel, vivisection and oil extraction).
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 09 October, 2019, 10:00:46 AM
Given that we are all supposedly unable to change our minds, how did the same people go overnight from "climate change isn't happening, scientists are all conspiring to embezzle grant money" to "you need to look at the science, climate collapse is inevitable, there's no point trying to do anything, so why are you delaying my commute".

On another note, it is truly amazing how many people are visiting sick relatives in city centre hospitals on any given day, and how this is now a top priority for urban transport networks.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 09 October, 2019, 01:38:34 PM
Amen brother. The cognitive dissonance is OFF. THE. SCALE.

In the meantime, Jonathan Pie just absolutely fucking nails it. Again.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuCmdtcWKog
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 17 October, 2019, 10:35:11 AM
The number of tweets I've seen claiming that "I only use the Tube because of climate change, and now this...".

Yes, XR disrupting public transport is a bit of a mixed mesage, but seriously, you were driving into central London every day until you saw Greta on YouTube and noticed the 150-year-old alternative...? You do know you're writing these things down on a permanent public global forum, yeh?
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 17 October, 2019, 10:42:18 AM
The thing is: optics. You don’t win people to your cause by being divisive and obstructive against things that are ultimately on your side. So this is a great example of a backfire. (See also: ‘EU supergirl’ currently yelling at several prominent female pro-EU campaigners for suggesting she abide by the wishes of a very specific demonstration for people’s rights and not rock up in a fucking unicorn outfit, playing guitar.)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 17 October, 2019, 12:07:04 PM
Poor optics indeed, but my issue is with people posting blatant untruths about their own behaviour. These people take the tube because it's practical, just as they always have, not because they have suddenly developed a strong environmental commitment to public transport that is now undermined by XR.

Ditto the near-90% of vox poppers who only ever venture into theffect city centre for job interviews and to visit sick/elderly relatives.

I'm also increasingly baffled by the 'individual action can't do anything about climate change, don't blame the people  it's the system' running seamlessly into 'large-scale co-ordinated group action shouldn't cause disruption that affects society'. Doesn't leave a whole lot of room for manoeuvre, and is a response familiar to anyone who's ever been in a union: employers would always rather have problems solved by 'a civilised chat between colleagues' than deal with militancy. It's amazing how frequently those 'chats' become urgent once your business is being disrupted, when before they were dismissed out of hand.

XR frequently screws up, its manifesto is full of holes, its arrest-focused approach to civil disobedience exclusionary, but it has focused attention on the crisis like nothing else before. In order to win hearts and minds, and thus direct vote-whoring behaviour and corporate policy, you first have to be visible and present in public discourse. First and foremost disruptive protest makes addressing your cause one possible solution, instead of something that can be dismissed and ignored.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 17 October, 2019, 12:34:41 PM
More or less with you on this. However, I couldn't help but groan when I saw the footage of folk being pulled off the top of that Tube.  It doesn't look great, because we're supposed to be encouraging electric mass transit solutions.

Also, this may be one of the first situations I've heard of where the public have physically turned on a protester and given them a good hiding.  That is NOT something anyone wants, and if the violence of those members of the public is left unchallenged we're basically opening the doors for anyone to take angry potshots at protesters, XR or otherwise.

On the other hand, it HAS again raised the issue of why people are prepared to do this - because of the terrifying reality of man-made climate change sweeping our society, civilisation, and lives away, and in a horrendous drawn out manner too.

So ultimately I'm torn - I desperately want people to wake up to the fact we're all in deep shit, but I don't want to encourage disruption of a transport system that could aid us, and definitely don't want to give any violent thugs agency to attack protesters of any kind, let alone XR activists.






: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 17 October, 2019, 01:26:35 PM
That's about my thoughts too. To be clear I'm not condoning the tube disruption either, it muddies the waters badly. Public transport = good. But equally I don't believe anything significant can be achieved without pissing off an awful lot of ordinary people a great deal.

Logical, factual argument and polite consensus-building has failed - not 'is failing' but 'has failed'. If the reality of climate collapse isn't enough, then the threat of endless disruptive protest needs to add to it. Rest assured, once the pain of any real mitigation measures starts there'll be plenty on the streets protesting that instead.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 17 October, 2019, 02:24:56 PM

A large part of it, maybe, could be a simple fear of change.

It's easy to imagine how poorer or developing countries feel about curbing emissions. They look at us, who have achieved our current level on the back of emissions, apparently pulling the ladder up after us. We can't tell them to cut emissions, to go back to washing clothes in the river or being unable to read at night because the coal-fired power station has become to expensive to run. The availability of clean water and medicines rise in proportion to emissions, child mortality decreases inversely. This is not to say that emissions are good, but they are damned convenient - especially for poor countries looking for tried and tested methods of lifting their people out of poverty. Places like China, which has lifted millions out of dire poverty by making such things as electric lights and washing machines available. These countries might want to help, but they're not going to want to ask their people to give up decreased child mortality, medicines, light bulbs and washing machines.

In contrast, our worries seem minor. We don't have to worry about child mortality, medicines, light bulbs or washing machines. They're pretty much baked in. We worry about being deprived of a holiday or the latest i-thing. We don't want to lose our wide range of streaming services or miss the latest fad. Yet we bang on about cutting emissions. It's no wonder the poorer countries don't want to play ball.

Maybe there should be some kind of "Sacrifice Fund." You pick something to sacrifice, your next holiday or new i-thing, and put the money towards buying a solar power plant for a remote village. No loans, no bonds or monetary faffing about, buying actual stuff for actual people. You sacrifice your treat so Zog doesn't have to sacrifice his washing machine. We could start that now, right here.

Bagsie treasurer!

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 17 October, 2019, 08:36:07 PM
Full Green policy doesn’t advocate leaving countries without. It’s about re-equalisation, across the world. This means some countries will still be able to develop, but the west will have to learn how to live in a different manner. Given that some people freak out when the suggestion is “cut your beef intake in half”, you have to wonder if we’re not just a species on the road to extinction.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 17 October, 2019, 08:55:19 PM
That's it in a nutshell. Some days I think we'll change, most days I don't, but I don't believe we'll do it fast enough. For there to be no meat or dairy, no airplane commutes, no cheap internationally shipped plastic crap, no foreign holidays or even weekend drives to the beach or the hills... all at the same time, and while extreme weather events accelerate, sea levels rise, wildlife dies off and climate-driven wars and refugees increase. It seems too much, too fast.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Tiplodocus 17 October, 2019, 09:08:03 PM
The no meat and no dairy thing is really a piece of cake*.

Well, if you are doing it for ethical reasons... I can see it would be harder to take if environmental was your main reason for giving it up.

At the moment, I reckon being holier than thou gives me a free pass on some of the others. But obviously, that will only be the case for so long.

* except there are some pieces of cake you don't eat.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 17 October, 2019, 10:59:34 PM
Here’s a great breakdown of where the green house gases are coming from, and therefore what needs altering/reducing/eliminating:

(https://i.imgur.com/jauMExT.jpg)


It’s from this cracking website about world resources:

https://www.wri.org/
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 17 October, 2019, 11:08:41 PM
At the moment, I reckon being holier than thou gives me a free pass on some of the others.

I know you're kidding, but this really is the point. I was a veggie for many years in my teens and 20s, so I haven't had much of a problem shifting my share of family cooking over to meatfree and am increasing the proportion of vegan meals (although I find that harder- cheese is my life). So yeah, that one thing can be done: it's the prospect of everything else and all at the same time I find hard to contemplate, and harde4 to believe a significant proportion of people will do it.

I've stopped all flying the past few years, but both my brothers and their families use planes like buses. I've never travelled long-haul bar one trip to NY, although I'd always planned to, and now I never will. If my Ozzer brother was to do likewise, which he should, I'd never see my niece and nephew again.

That, and no cheese!  Add the prospect of giving up owning dogs and cats and fucking hell.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 17 October, 2019, 11:38:49 PM
A good post from XR about the Tube thing earlier today:

https://rebellion.earth/2019/10/17/todays-tube-action-how-it-happened/
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 17 October, 2019, 11:42:47 PM
Worth a read and ties in with Tordel’s earlier points about keeping this in the public eye even if the action may seem counter-productive.

 https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8TjvThS0cxubHByd2tHajZ6ak1KM0ROeE1oa0JrNlFFOFhv/view
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 20 October, 2019, 09:23:28 AM
Neil Gaiman has waded into the fray on Twitter.

He asked:

 ‘Any sane scientists out there think "reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2025" is a worthy goal and support it? Please Reply, with qualifications, if so...’

The general consensus is it would be very difficult to achieve, but such a lofty goal is absolutely essential right now.

Here’s a link to the thread. The responses from scientists around the world are fascinating.

https://twitter.com/neilhimself/status/1185595855493062658?s=21
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Modern Panther 20 October, 2019, 10:06:21 AM
"But why, some say, the Moon? Why choose this as our goal? And they may well ask, why climb the highest mountain? Why, 35 years ago, fly the Atlantic? Why does Rice play Texas?

We choose to go to the Moon! We choose to go to the Moon...We choose to go to the Moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard; because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one we intend to win, and the others, too."
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 20 October, 2019, 04:15:14 PM
It’s all about political will, and political will comes from voters. I got a harsh lesson in that on the way back from the march, listening to some old fucks (pensioners, some of which were Northern Irish) prattling on about Corbyn, extinction rebellion (“they’ve gone TOO far!”), remain/the march, and zero carbon. On the last of those was the whine about “who’s going to pay for it?” combined with “but how will we heat our houses when they turn off all our heating”. Grade-A bullshit (hey, pensioners, it won’t be you paying for it!), but these are the people who turn out to vote in huge numbers.

Until the young (by which I mean the under-30s) start understanding that, we are basically fucked. And so, especially, are they.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 20 October, 2019, 04:18:33 PM
Oh, and I nearly forgot the doozy: we shouldn’t do anything in the UK, because we are only responsible for 1.5 per cent of emissions, and so we shouldn’t be paying for anyone else. It’s all about selfish fucks who won’t change their lives at all. It always has been and it always will be.

I don’t get the argument – I genuinely don’t understand it – when people say “but if we go zero-carbon by 2030, we’d lose 5% of worldwide GDP”. So fucking what. That is an investment in our entire futures – our species’ future! GAH.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Tjm86 20 October, 2019, 04:40:36 PM
The economic argument takes no account of the cost of extreme weather events though, doesn't it?  How much do storms cost the UK economy?  How much did the storms that have ravaged the coast of America the last few years cost the US economy?  We've already got insurance companies forecasting that home insurance is likely to become an unaffordable luxury in some areas for those least able to afford it

Of course there is also the Brexit argument.  How much has the clusterflob created by this parliament cost the UK over the last few years?  What is it forecast to cost over the next few decades?  Sauce for the goose and all that ...
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 20 October, 2019, 05:03:06 PM
Well, quite, but then that’s the problem: it’s all about short-termism and selfishness. Just the average person dropping their meat intake 50% would be a start. That wouldn’t heavily impact on anyone. Or we could all carry water and coffee rather than buying it. (Mrs G bought a new canteen recently, and I took it on the march. The tea brewed at 9am was still burning hot around lunchtime, and still warm when I had some on the way home around 5pm.) But even small things are too much. So asking people to invest in their future is apparently beyond the pale.

Again, I just don’t get it.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 21 October, 2019, 10:35:22 PM
A full on 15 page report from Harvard, George Mason Uni, and Bristol Uni about how the fossil fuel industry has deliberately sabotaged America’s attempts to get on top of the climate crisis!


https://www.climatechangecommunication.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/America_Misled.pdf
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 21 October, 2019, 10:56:44 PM
An interesting interview from a course I’m on at the mo re the psychology of climate change denial. It seems the fossil fuel industry has tapped into a particular ideology to bolster their obfuscation:

(Apologies for the info dump)

Oreskes: Climate change denial in the United States is almost entirely motivated by politics. A lot of scientists have thought that it was a problem of science illiteracy, that it was a problem of public understanding, that if we just explained the science better that then we would solve this problem. And that doesn't work because the problem is not being driven by lack of access to information, although that may play a role in some cases, the problem is being driven by people not wanting to believe the science because they don't like its implications.

Lewandowsky: When it comes to the drivers of belief or acceptance of scientific findings, in particular climate change, then what we find is that one of the most important factors is a person’s worldview or you can call it a political ideology, their belief in things such as the free market. It turns out, that in particular in the case of climate change, that people who are very enthusiastic about free markets and who think that government should not interfere with free markets, that they tend to reject the findings from climate change, climate science based on that ideology. It’s a very strong effect. It’s a huge effect.

Oreskes: If you take climate science seriously, it means we need to do something, we need to do something that changes the way we operate. And that something could be very personal.
It could be changing the way you live. It could be becoming a vegetarian, not traveling or building a zero energy home, but it also could be something that the government does.
And a lot of the early attention about climate change particularly focused on governance.
It focused on either the idea of international governance in the form of, say, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change or it focused on national governance in the form of a carbon tax or an emission trading system. So these are government interventions in the marketplace.

Scott: In the case of climate change where it’s more of a political ideology and/or an economic ideology, the concerns are more along the lines of, “Well, if climate change is true, that means that we’re going to have to strengthen central government because we’re going to have to have to take steps to curb the carbon production so that we can reduce the amount of CO2 in the air. That means a bigger central government. As political conservatives, we don’t want a big central government. It means we’re going to have to put some constraints on capitalism. That’s socialism.” There’s a lot of things that political conservatives are going to lose also if climate change is right.

Oreskes: If you don’t like the idea of a government intervention in the marketplace because you believe in free market economics or you just worry about government encroachment—you worry about expanding the government—then the kinds of solutions that are being put forward for climate change are things you don’t like. That’s a major, probably the single major reason why the Americans who reject climate science do it, because if you look at the data on it, what you see is that the strongest correlation between climate-change
denial is with a certain kind of conservative politics that emphasises the free market.
It’s not correlated with race. It’s not correlated with age or gender or even religious belief, with one exception that’s tied to conservative politics, which is a certain sector of the evangelical community, but it’s tied to a set of conservative beliefs about governance.

Hayhoe: The main reason why people don’t think climate change is real is not because of lack of facts. Most of the people that I meet from day to day—the lady in the grocery store, or the man across the street—they have arguments at the tip of their fingers as to why they don’t think climate change is real. They will cite the stolen e-mails.
They will say, “Global warming stopped 17 years ago.” They have arguments, factual or semi-factual based arguments about why it’s not true. Why is everybody so convinced?
It’s because we are all cognitive misers. We don’t have the brain power to understand every single issue in the world. I don’t know if we ever did, but, especially now, I mean, I don’t understand the fundamentals of stem cell research. I don’t really understand the pluses and negatives of nuclear power, to be perfectly honest. I certainly don’t understand the economic benefits and trade-offs of all the various climate policies that are being considered. You can understand how the average person doesn’t understand the climate science, so what do we do? We go to people we trust. In the United States, when we look at people we trust, if you look at the conservative half of the country, with one voice, conservative media, conservative thought leaders, and conservative politicians are telling us that this isn’t a real problem.

Hamilton: In the literature, there are some accounts that I consider to be top down in explaining opposition to things like clean air and clean water—that is, there are political elites. There are ideological think tanks. There are large donors. There are media networks that are arguing from the top and telling people that these are the arguments; these are the positions; here are some scientific-sounding rationales or an economic-sounding rationale—that all being top down. Bottom up—I think there are people who are more or less inclined to listen to those arguments and to credit them or to discredit the alternatives. Some of that may be psychological. Some of it may have to do with your social position. We see all kinds of differences in terms of gender and education and age but dominated by differences in ideology, worldview, or political party.

Alley: It's frustrating right because there shouldn't be a serious role for politics in climate science, in my opinion. The science is science. And it was. The first time I ever testified to a subcommittee of the US Senate was 12 years ago. And it was chaired by a Republican who was about to introduce a bill that was going to put a price on changing the climate through carbon emissions and I personally think that he was just a little bit unhappy with me because I was not scarier about the threats. I was being very careful and measured, and this is [snap] that long ago. The idea that somehow your politics that you're on this side or that side means that you or don't believe that believe that C02 is a greenhouse gas. There is a little bit of that now, but it's a very very recent thing. And it's the thing that I think that I hope can disappear again.

Lewandowsky: You have to explain to the majority of people why there is a small but vocal minority that is denying the science. I think it’s very important for the public to understand that those people are motivated by factors such as personal ideology.

Oreskes: If I have one message that's what my message has been all along and it still is: this is not a scientific debate; it's a political debate. But it's a political debate being made to look like a scientific debate.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 22 October, 2019, 10:26:56 AM
A smaller data dump for you, a conclusion to another lecture I have watched as part of my course.  It's chilling.

Our climate changes when greenhouse gas levels change. These climate changes can happen very quickly, causing some of the largest mass extinctions in Earth’s history.

And now, we have increased levels of greenhouse gases higher than they have been for more than a million years. And as best we can tell, we are increasing levels of greenhouse gases faster than at any time during Earth’s history.

Faster even than during those mass extinctions.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 24 October, 2019, 10:28:36 PM
Interesting. A report commissioned by General Mark Milley, Trump's new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, basically said the US Military will be screwed due to climate change within about 30 years.

Trump may still be a denier, but the rest of the US is waking up to the crisis.


https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/mbmkz8/us-military-could-collapse-within-20-years-due-to-climate-change-report-commissioned-by-pentagon-says
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 24 October, 2019, 10:53:19 PM

The Power of Nightmares.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: JayzusB.Christ 25 October, 2019, 01:45:36 PM
...and scientific research.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Mikey 25 October, 2019, 01:47:06 PM
Here’s a great breakdown of where the green house gases are coming from, and therefore what needs altering/reducing/eliminating:

(https://i.imgur.com/jauMExT.jpg)


It’s from this cracking website about world resources:

https://www.wri.org/

Ooh, that a nice graphic!

...the US Military will be screwed due to climate change within about 30 years.

Trump may still be a denier, but the rest of the US is waking up to the crisis.

The US military has been up on this for a long time, unsurprisingly, since even before bloggers and half wits were good enough to let us know it's all made up.

Anyhoo - you may be interested in this:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/08/190829150747.htm (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/08/190829150747.htm)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 26 October, 2019, 09:51:46 AM
This is INSANE.

“If SUV drivers were a nation, they would rank seventh in the world for carbon emissions”


https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2019/oct/25/suvs-second-biggest-cause-of-emissions-rise-figures-reveal
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 03 November, 2019, 10:44:29 AM
Exxon knew damn well 20 years ago that burning fossil fuels would destroy us.

Here are scientists who worked for them confirming this to AOC.


https://youtu.be/EtxgpK5ehNE
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 05 November, 2019, 09:57:52 PM
This is a scientific paper every literate person on the planet needs to read, immediately. Please read it.


https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/biz088/5610806
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 10 November, 2019, 01:37:29 PM
‪This is a cracking article that highlights the push of responsibility onto individuals and away from multinationals and politicians by bad agents.‬

‪It also discusses why it is ok to push for improvements from within the system you’re stuck in.‬


‪ https://blog.usejournal.com/in-defense-of-eco-hypocrisy-b71fb86f2b2f‬
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 13 November, 2019, 01:27:00 PM
There's a programme on BBC 4 this Thursday at 9pm called 'Climategate: Science of a Scandal'. 

It discusses how covert fossil fuel interests hacked the emails of a two scientists, one in the UK and one in the US (Michael E Mann, who I have studied under), and proceeded to cherry pick quotes to cast doubts on their data and scientific method. 

It promises to be a fascinating look at something climate change deniers are citing TO THIS DAY (either deliberately as bad agents sowing doubt, or just because they are folk who have swallow the crap from the bad agents), despite having been fully debunked way back when.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000b8p2



If you want a bit of an oversight into the whole thing, this will get you up to speed quickly:

https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/debunking-misinformation-about-stolen-climate-emails

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 17 November, 2019, 07:22:40 PM
US Coal power plants are beginning to find the cheaper natural gas and renewable energy sources too economically challenging. A big one has shut down this week.

https://qz.com/1749023/two-of-americas-biggest-coal-plants-closed-this-month/
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 19 November, 2019, 12:26:42 AM
This article is a good overview of what we can expect from the climate crisis over the next decade.

Buckle up folks.

https://www.businessinsider.com/climate-change-in-the-next-decade-2019-11?r=US&IR=T
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Tiplodocus 19 November, 2019, 03:23:47 PM
So an article about moving to being more sustainable on our internal company website has brought quite a few climate change deniers out into the open on the comments sections.

I say "deniers" but their main thrust tends to be "Sure, the climate is changing but it's nothing to do with human activity. We'll just have to ride it out.".

Vegans too. It brought out a lot of vegans. Which is nice.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Leigh S 19 November, 2019, 03:49:04 PM
The comments on the BBC news story regarding the Greens manifesto are dispiriting almost to a man - i think we deserve wiping out, sadly - too many goons happy to "whatabout India and China" and "who's gonna pay for it/too disruptive" - let's see how disruptive it really gets, you imbeciles

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 19 November, 2019, 04:20:52 PM
This would be the same Green party that would also make most people’s lives much better with redistributed wealth, the aim of a four-day week, a citizen’s income so no poor fuckers are left with nothing, and so on.

I really can’t get on board with some Green policy, but dismissing them as crackpots seems an idiotic response that far too many people are prone to. Yes, they are at the extremes of British politics, but that’s only because we’ve been wrenched so far right. Economically, they are in a broadly similar space to Labour, but are more progressive; and socially, they are largely liberal in outlook.

In short: GAH.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Tjm86 19 November, 2019, 06:29:31 PM
... their main thrust tends to be "Sure, the climate is changing but it's nothing to do with human activity. We'll just have to ride it out."

In some respects they're likely to be right in the next age .... The potential complete lack of human activity is likely to be a factor in the next climate change epoch.

Pity no one is likely to be around to see it.   :(
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 19 November, 2019, 08:40:10 PM
[rant]

My view is that humans' contribution to climate change is small, but our overall damage factor is high - mainly through various species of pollution and over-exploitation. The focus on carbon dioxide is, to me, misguided and dangerous as the major global strategy. It's most useful role, as I see it, is as the poster child for much wider change - the equivalent of the WWF's panda symbol for the Just Look After the Effing Planet  it's Not Rocket Surgery for God's Sake Party.

The climate is going to change, there's absolutely no doubt about that because the climate has always changed. Ancient civilisations habitually find themselves subsumed by deserts or seas, sometimes due to the consequences of their own actions, sometimes not. I have no doubt that humans are contributing to the dynamics of the atmosphere and, by extension, the climate. I question, however, the extent and range of that contribution. That said, if we are having a detrimental effect, no matter its magnitude, then we must strive to minimise it across the board.

There is a theory that Christianity is the religion of choice for materialistic societies such as ours because it claims that God gave the world to humanity, making it property - to be used, disposed of, and controlled at will. The Old Way, the savage way, saw the world as communal - the benefactor, and (most crucially) the responsibility of all creatures. We see the planet and all that is contained therein as ours, to do with as we please. Strip mine. Build a house. Mow a lawn. Control.

We are all but told, now, that we can control the climate. Of an entire planet. Because it's ours. We can affect it, sure, like we can affect a wild tiger by poking it with a stick. But control it? Let's say it all goes right and the CO2 levels drop better than expected and sooner than expected: who knows what knock-on effects such a sudden and radical shift in atmospheric composition and dynamics would have? Okay, so that's pure speculation, practically worthless.

Thing is, it's like that old thing about betting that there is a God - if you win, you win Big. If you lose, you'd have lost anyway. This whole CO2 thing - sure. Go for it. If nothing else it'll encourage new research, new technologies, new power sources. I believe that the foundation of the CO2 movement has ulterior motives but that doesn't invalidate the whole idea behind it - look after the planet.

We will never get back to the Old Way, we like our houses (and sheds) too much. The Modern Way is not working, we like our houses (and sheds) too much. This whole climate argument is, to me, entirely demonstrative of where we are as a species: dazed and confused, and, at the same time, angry and convinced. All of us. Me included.

You want to know how I change the world? I don't buy bottled water, for one thing. Bottled fucking water, for Christ's sake. All my water comes out of a fucking tap. Sure, it might be full of all sorts of rubbish and super bad for me but then so be it. I'm not above the planet. Bottled water! Huh! If ever there was a more morally objectionable, and environmentally irresponsible, product on sale in a so-called First World country then bottled  fucking water is it. So I don't buy any. Bottled water is my CO2.

Oh look - I see a point approaching...

As I've said before, it ain't CO2. At least, it ain't all CO2. It ain't all even bottled fucking water. It's about humanity's relationship with the Earth. She does not belong to us. We belong to her - and any plan to live in harmony with Her is fine by me. Just remember that CO2 is not the only fruit, though it is currently the most popular - and expensive - fruit.

[/rant]

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 19 November, 2019, 10:12:39 PM
My view is that humans' contribution to climate change is small

https://xkcd.com/1732/
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Funt Solo 19 November, 2019, 10:15:52 PM
Shark, you seem offended by people wanting to try to make the Earth more habitable, or habitable for humans for longer. Why is that offensive?

Take all your arguments and apply them to bath water temperature.  Hmm - my bath water is getting a bit cold, I'll add some warm.  In bursts Shark: "Just because you are in the bath, you presume that you have the right to add warm water to it?" etc.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 20 November, 2019, 03:27:09 AM
Sorry, IP, I can't read that on this ol' 'phone.

Not at all, Funt, I think everyone should treat our planet with care and respect. It's the focus on CO2, virtually to the exclusion of all else, that concerns me. Nature knows how to deal with CO2, she makes good use of it and has been doing so forever. It might take her some time but she'll eventually sort it, one way or another. What she does have problems with are all the other gases and toxins we constantly belch out, all the rubbish we dump, all the ecosystems we plunder.

I'm behind anyone who wants to make our Home a better place, I'm not even averse to people making a profit out of doing so, as long as it's done ethically. What does offend me is the way CO2 is being used as a vehicle for social control and the redistribution of wealth in an upwards direction. It's a battle on two fronts; against the poisoning of the world on one hand and the machinations of the poison peddlers on the other.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 20 November, 2019, 08:16:36 AM
99% of scientists disagree. You know this. We’ve been over this. Humans have released carbon at a rate of knots never seen in history at this speed while simultaneously eradicating the things that can help control it (like the Amazon) and worsening things by adding to the amount kicked out. The result is tipping points.

In the long run, the planet will be fine. Some life will survive whatever we do. The point is whether or not we as humans want a habitable planet. And if we do, the science is very, very clear about how we go about that. Fight against it all you want, but at this point you’re in “world is flat” or “I don’t believe in gravity” territory.

shaolin_monkey: thanks for all the links. They are appreciated. And terrifying.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 20 November, 2019, 09:32:11 AM

It's not 99% of scientists who believe in AGW. The figure is 97.1%. And it's not 97.1% of all the scientists in all the disciplines in the world. It's not even 97.1% of all climate scientists.

If one reads the original paper from 2013 (https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024) upon which this claim is based, one can see that it's 97.1% of 33.3% of 11,944 abstracts published between 1991 and 2011 that take a position on AGW. Of those papers that do take a position, there is a range of opinion on the actual levels of AGW.

If the science were that strong, obfuscation of this sort would be unnecessary. This is the aspect that politicians bring to the table - representing a percentage of a subset as a percentage of a whole in order to bolster their arguments. Politicians misusing information? Well, that's new...

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 20 November, 2019, 11:03:26 AM
Gah.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 20 November, 2019, 12:39:50 PM
Sharkey, some things you say I agree with, but there are two I definitely don't.

Please watch this video from Prof. John Cook.  It's only about 6 mins long.  It describes in detail where the 97% consensus figure comes from, and where logical fallacies are used to exploit folk to think the level of agreement among climate experts is an issue. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAqR9mLJrcE


This is from a course I am studying currently on edxonline, which is all about the psychology of man-made climate change denial.  The 97% figure comes from actual scientific studies, not politicians, not fossil fuel think tanks, not people with an agenda.  The studies were first begun by Naomi Oreskes, author of 'Merchants of Doubt' (another recommended read - please google it).



The other thing I disagree with is your view on CO2.  The parts per million in the atmosphere (415 PPM currently versus 280 PPM pre-industrial) is DEFINITELY causing problems RIGHT NOW, and it is going to get worse. 

We're past debating this - the evidence is all around us.  Ice caps melting, fires in California, Russia, Australia, Greenland, and in the Arctic, floods in the UK and Venice, record breaking heatwaves all over Europe year after year after year, water stress - water running out in places like Chennai and Cape Town, crop failures from climate stresses in the US and Europe etc etc etc.

I could go on and on and on.

I appreciate there's all kinds of confusing information about this on the internet.  Please bear in mind there's a fossil fuel-funded propaganda war going on out there, trying to downplay or poo-poo the problem.

Please do this FREE course from Prof. Michael E. Mann on edxonline.  He's basically the no.1 professor and communicator on climate science.

It's about 8 - 10 hours of study, and explains very clearly why CO2 is a problem, and how we have been aware of it's atmosphere-warming properties for over 100 years.

Please take the course, and update your understanding:

https://www.edx.org/course/climate-change-the-science-and-global-impact


I'll finish with this 7 minute vid, again from the course I am on at the moment.  It includes words from Sir David Attenborough, amongst others, and explains why challenging the myths spouted by climate change deniers is so difficult:

https://youtu.be/Hsllpg5jW7c


: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 20 November, 2019, 12:45:54 PM
I will add quickly that you are right to be worried about a whole bunch of other stuff - overuse of pesticides, water sources filled with hormones, deforestation, natural resources stripped and destroy to match our consumption, plastic getting into the sea and our very drinking water (totally with you on the plastic bottles issue), destruction of flora and fauna all over the world...but a lot of those things are also linked to climate change.

If we don't get on top of the CO2 issue, all these other environmental issues will be irrelevant, because our species will quite simply not survive a 4 degree average global temperature increase over the next 50 - 100 years, and we're already pushing the 1.5 degrees mark now. 
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Professor Bear 20 November, 2019, 12:51:55 PM
Most scientists have been saying all along that the weather will change, and then it did.  The minority said the weather would not change at all, and then it did and their position became "okay the weather changed but that's got nothing to do with us".  On one hand, I can choose to believe scientists who have been right so far, or I can believe scientists that changed their story the second they were caught out in a lie.  I mean, it's a tough call - do I believe the people who want us to change our way of living to something less wasteful, more mindful of our environment, and considerate of the needs of the global poor, or do I take the advice of a small minority of people who say we're doing just fine as we are, that nothing needs to change, and whose interests align with a ruling class whom I despise and who have traditionally obtained their wealth through theft, deceit, and mass murder?

You know what, I'm going to side with the oil companies on this one.  The all-powerful environmental lobby has been calling the shots for too long.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 20 November, 2019, 02:33:22 PM

Thanks, SM. Unfortunately, this old 'phone won't play YouTube videos. Can you point me to similar text versions?

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 20 November, 2019, 03:44:03 PM

Thanks, SM. Unfortunately, this old 'phone won't play YouTube videos. Can you point me to similar text versions?

Here's the first on consensus, taken from the online course.  I'll try and get the other one in a mo.


Imagine you’re driving towards a bridge. Have you ever pulled over, taken out your
phone and started browsing blogs about bridge building, to decide whether the bridge was
safe to cross? Of course not. You trust in the engineers who built that bridge.

That’s how we form our views on complicated issues. Rather than master a whole body of
knowledge, we use a mental shortcut. We rely on experts and trust them to do their jobs.
Or failing that, we trust that their colleagues would catch their mistakes before anything
goes wrong.

Now in a perfect world, everyone would be aware of all the lines of evidence for human-caused
global warming. We would know all the human fingerprints that are being observed across
our climate. But life is busy.

We have to pay the bills

Get the kids (or ourselves) off to school…

And keep track of all the characters on Game of Thrones. So most of us use the mental shortcut
of expert opinion.

In the case of climate change, the experts are climate scientists who are actively publishing
peer-reviewed climate research. Because the body of evidence is so strong, there’s overwhelming
agreement among climate scientists that humans are causing global warming. How do we know
the level of agreement?

In 2009, climate scientist Peter Doran and Maggie Kendall Zimmermann at the University
of Illinois at Chicago surveyed Earth scientists.

The survey asked the scientists if humans are significantly changing global temperature.
When the survey results came back, they found that not every group shared the same opinion.
Different groups had different levels of agreement about climate change.

For example, the group of scientists with the lowest agreement that humans were causing
global warming were economic geologists, at 47%.

The next highest were meteorologists at 64%. However, what they found was that the higher
the level of expertise in climate science, the stronger the agreement about human-caused
global warming.

For the most qualified group, climate scientists actively publishing climate research, there
was 97.4% agreement that humans were significantly changing global temperature.
A year later in 2010, another study took a completely different approach to estimating
the level of consensus. William Anderegg at Princeton University and his colleagues collected
a number of public statements from scientists about human-caused global warming, including
as many dissenting statements as they could find.

Then they narrowed their focus to only the scientists who had published climate research
in scientific journals.

They found the same result as Doran did the previous year. Among publishing climate scientists,
there was 97 to 98% agreement that humans are causing global warming. And just like
Doran, Anderegg found that scientists convinced of human-caused global warming had published
substantially more climate research than what he termed “unconvinced scientists”.
More recently in 2013, I led a team of researchers at Skeptical Science in conducting the most
comprehensive analysis of climate research to date. We looked at climate papers from
1991 to 2011.

This amounted to over 12,000 papers. We found that among papers stating a position on human-caused global warming...

97.1% affirmed the consensus. So three different studies, using three different methods, all
found overwhelming scientific agreement. But that’s not the only evidence of a consensus.
Virtually every scientific organisation that has made a statement about climate change
has endorsed the consensus.

Note the social diversity in the organisations listed. They come from the fields of geophysics,
chemistry, meteorology, physics, oceanography, and geology.

The diversity of the consensus also applies to countries. The Academies of Science from
80 countries have endorsed human-caused global warming. Not a single Academy of Science in
the world has rejected the consensus.

Many lines of empirical evidence tell us that humans are causing global warming. Similarly,
a number of independent sources find overwhelming scientific agreement about human-caused global warming. We see it in surveys of scientists, in analyses of published research and in the
diversity of scientific organisations all over the world.

There is one myth about climate change which argues that there’s no scientific consensus,
because 31,000 scientists have signed a petition rejecting the consensus position. The petition
is a website called the Global Warming Petition Project.

However, the only requirement to be listed in this petition is an undergraduate degree
in any kind of science.

According to the US Department of Education, over 10 million people earned a science degree
between 1971 and 2008. So while 31,000 people signed this petition, that’s actually only
0.3% of Americans with science degrees.

And most importantly, only 0.1% of those 31,000 are climate scientists.
So the claim that the Global Warming Petition Project disproves the scientific consensus
is a myth that uses the technique of magnified minority. This involves making the petition
seem like a large number, when in reality it represents a tiny percent of the scientific
community.

This myth also uses fake experts. This involves conveying an impression of expertise - 31,000
scientists - when 99.9% of the signatories aren’t climate scientists.

Now it’s crucial to reiterate that science is decided by evidence, not by popular opinion.
However, it’s also important to recognise how the general public think about complex
issues. They rely on the opinions of experts. So we need to be aware when fake experts are
being used to confuse people about the level of agreement among real experts.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 20 November, 2019, 04:14:59 PM
Here's the transcript of the other one Sharkey, entitled 'Moving past barriers to change':


Cook: How do you respond to people who don’t accept the science of climate change?

Attenborough : *long sigh*  [Sharkey, I wish you could see Attenborough’s face at this point.]

Lewandowsky: One crucial question that society is confronting is how to deal with the expressions
of denial that are so common on the internet and on blogs, and the answer to that, I think,
is that it is absolutely essential to be driven by data, by research, by empirical findings
and to look at what the data in cognitive science and psychology, what they tell us
about the problem. One of the reasons why it’s very difficult to change the mind of
people who are committed already to rejecting the science—one of the reasons that’s
very difficult is because you’re challenging their world-views if you are trying to change
their belief about climate change.

Hamilton: In my experience, it's really hard to convert real believers on anything, that
you will just type yourself as an unreliable source if you contradict the things they really cherish.
Lewandowsky: people reject the science in the first place because it is incompatible
with their deeply held world-views. Most people who reject climate science do so because they
fear not for the planet but for the interference with the economy, with the free market.

Kerr: some people are not interested in either evidence or reason, it's just ideology. So
there's an ideological or personal psychological barrier there.
Sherwood: There’s also a lot of people that have already made up their mind as almost
part of their identity, that they’re not going to accept it, and those people you kind
of can’t do anything with.

Attenborough: It's very difficult if they won't take notice, if they won't believe the
figures, what can you say? It seems to me an extraordinarily offensive thing to do,
to say to a scientist "your figures are wrong."

Alexander: There are some people who, I think, the more you give them facts the more they
will hold onto the beliefs that they already had. So, in those cases, I'm not really sure
what benefit there is in having a conversation, because it's not actually a conversation.

Lewandowsky: Now if you then, as a researcher or communicator, present them with more evidence
that climate science is real, then chances are that the recipients of the message are
digging themselves deeper into their existing position and actually believe even more strongly
that that is not the case. We have the experimental data to show that in a lot of different circumstances.

It doesn’t just have to be climate science. It’s whenever people’s world-views are
at stake, then presenting them with corrective information can have a so-called “backfire
effect” of making them believe the mistaken information even more strongly.

Ecker: And if you have a belief that is really central to your identity, so if you have a
really strong belief, then you will defend it. You're defending your identity, who you
are. If someone comes along and challenges it, what happens is that you're not going
to be convinced by what they say because they're challenging your world-view. You're actually
more likely to become even more extreme in your belief.

Lewandowsky: So that is another reason why engagement with people who deny climate science
is inadvisable because you’re just strengthening and reaffirming their belief if you’re not
careful with your message.

Ecker: And also you need to accept the fact that there's people out there who will not
change their mind whatever evidence you give them, but also, consider the fact that that's
just a very small minority. Most people, you can talk to them and they might change their
mind if you present your case.

Lewandowsky: In order to do the one thing that matters, which is to mitigate climate
change—in order to do that, you don’t have to change the minds or opinions of five
percent of the population. It’s absolutely unnecessary, politically unnecessary. It is
a waste of resources to try and communicate or convince people who reject scientific evidence
because the reason they reject the scientific evidence is not because they’ve evaluated
the evidence rationally. It is because they are motivated to reject it by other variables

England: Max Planck came out and said look, you know you can't convince your opponents
of an idea, that it's true. Unfortunately you just need to teach the next generation
as they come through the system, how this physics works.

And they'll grow up understanding it, and that's cool.

Hamilton: In any survey or any election campaign, you know there's a huge group in the middle
that is not committed and that can be swayed in the—these are the independent voters,
the uncommitted voters that you hear so much about in the run-up to an election.

Donner: There's kind of like a climate change swing-voter, right? There's people in the
middle that, depending on the conditions, and those conditions might be a change in
temperature, but they might be other current events as well. Whatever else is going on
in the news. They may say 'oh, you know what, I am concerned' or 'I am worried about climate
change now' whereas the next year they may not be. We call them "climate change swing-voters"
but as far as I understand there are other papers that have done analyses like this and
have found that people that are sort of in the independent part of the political spectrum,
so neither Left nor Right, those are the ones whose opinions are most likely to change with
temperature.

Ecker: So focus your attempts to convey your message on the majority of people who are
willing to engage in conversation.

Trenberth: When I try to deal with the public in general, I'm really trying to reach, I
suppose what you might call the large uniformed masses. Maybe that's a derogatory term, but
you know, many people are just not very well informed about climate change. The small percentage
of the deniers, I'm not going to convince them.

Lewandowsky: It is important to talk to the other 90 percent of people who are not denying
that the climate is changing, and it is important for them to know, first of all, that they’re
in the vast majority themselves. They also have to know that there is a vast consensus among
scientists because it turns out that telling people about the consensus makes them more
aware of the science and it makes them more accepting of the science.

 
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 20 November, 2019, 09:13:01 PM
Thanks for taking the time, SM, I appreciate it.

I haven't read the second post yet but here are my initial thoughts on the first.

Whilst it touches on the dangers of logical fallacies, this piece is itself built around a logical fallacy - appeal to authority. It's basically telling me to shut up and accept the word of experts. To show how important experts are, the example of bridge building is given.

I have no problem with bridges and expert bridge builders. I reckon bridges must be in the Top Ten of the Most Important Human Technologies of All Time. Humans have been building bridges forever, from a log over a ditch to a stone arch over a stream to a steel suspension bridge over a river. We have lots of data on bridges, lots of experience, and very few (if any) unknowns. Even when the bridge builders get it wrong and one of their constructions twists itself to bits in a stiff breeze or collapses under the oscillations set up by too many people walking in-step, the reasons for these failures is soon calculated and added to the body of knowledge expert bridge builders have access to.

So yes, we assume our bridges have been designed and built by experts and won't fall away beneath us. That and watching other people cross. It's important to listen to an expert bridge builder if one intends to build a bridge - no question about that. But if I come upon a bridge that's twisting in the wind or has big lumps hanging off it, I don't need an expert to tell me I should probably find another route. And I wouldn't necessarily trust the best bridge builder in the world's opinion on climatology.

So now we are introduced to the other kind of expert, the climatologist. As the article uses bridge building to demonstrate the strengths of one form of specialisation, I'm going to use the idea of computer simulations to highlight the weaknesses of another. I'd guess that computer simulations are in the Top Ten Most Important Climatology Tools, so here goes.

The main drawback with any predictive simulation is uncertainty. I'm not talking about quantum physics' version of uncertainty, cats in boxes, probability wave functions, and the Measurement Problem - I'm talking about good, old fashioned classical uncertainty of the type described by Lorenz. The butterfly effect. The unpredictable nature of Hyperion's motions around Saturn.

In effect, the climate is a limited chaotic system - which means the further into the future predictions are made, the less reliable they become. I recently listened to a full series of university lectures on the mysteries of physics and was struck by an amazing fact about Hyperion's motion which I vowed to remember but have forgotten the details of. It is currently impossible to accurately predict the motion of Hyperion beyond (I think) two years. In order to increase that accuracy by one year, the accuracy of our measurements of the moon must improve by (something like) twenty times. Twenty one times would yield only an additional day. And that's for a little lump of irregularly shaped rock orbiting a planet. (The actual figures aren't that important here, this is just an illustration of the difficulties dealing with limited chaotic systems.)

The climate has orders of magnitude more data points than little Hyperion, and to be any use at all in a predictive simulation those data points must be numerous and very precise. The size of the computer is of less importance than the quality of data. Even so, the further into the future we extrapolate, the more uncertain those predictions become.

Let's take one small aspect of the whole field: car parks. As the last century progressed, let's imagine that more and more little weather stations found themselves sited on concrete instead of grass. The gradual modernisation of outposts, research stations, schools and so on. Concrete reflects more heat than grass so the weather station records a slightly higher temperature than previously, say 0.2 degrees on average. Then say that 0.2 degree discrepancy is replicated across 0.2% of all weather station readings and it's all fed meticulously into the simulator, along with countless other data points from Solar output to orbital dynamics to CO2 levels, that error is your proverbial butterfly, the tiny flapping of it giving unpredictable results - adding to the already inherent uncertainty. I might trust the simulations for one, maybe two years into the future but, after that, not so much.

This is not the fault of scientists, it's a feature of the universe. Predictions are hard. That's not to say that the experts shouldn't keep at it - who knows what they might find lurking in the data?

So yes, I absolutely agree that experts provide a vital resource. But that does not make them infallible.

I'll skip over the discussion on consensus (hurrah!), because I should really find the sources and read them for myself.

I will finish with the observation that this piece casts light upon the relative ease with which "the public" can be hoodwinked. The inference is that experts are above hoodwinking, or at least more resistant to it. I don't think this is necessarily true - experts are humans too, they're subject to all the psychological pitfalls as the rest of us. They have to put food on the table and go where the grant money or salary is.

To me, this piece smacks of indoctrination rather than education, presenting experts almost as a priest class, untouchable and not to be questioned. My understanding of science, though, is that it's all about questions. What, where, why, who, when, how? For a branch of science, especially one so presumably vital to the future of humanity, to deter questions seems... unscientific.

There is, however, one line in there that I wholeheartedly agree with - "Now it’s crucial to reiterate that science is decided by evidence, not by popular opinion." I hope that sentiment applies to the experts as well.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 20 November, 2019, 10:21:40 PM
I'm afraid you're misusing the 'argument from authority' fallacy there - science is a system that, in aggregate, constantly guards against that fallacy through rigorous peer challenge of assumptions, method, data, analysis and conclusion. Appeal to authority isn't generally permitted. Which to a large extent insulates lay reference to published and established scientific fact from the authority fallacy: it really IS a better authority than any independent argument from a layperson could be. Experts really are the experts.

 I fully accept that shit happens, science operates in the same ragged compromised and institutional worlds as the rest of us, but the sheer scale of consensus on this issue argues convincingly against it being the case here.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 20 November, 2019, 10:33:17 PM
If there was a 95% chance you’d get hit by a bus the next time you walked into town, would you make changes, or would you say “you know, it’s probably a conspiracy, so I’m going to side with the five per cent”? Those are not good odds. And we’re talking about the survival of entire ecosystems and, effectively, humanity itself in any recognisable form.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Professor Bear 20 November, 2019, 10:45:03 PM
Whilst it touches on the dangers of logical fallacies, this piece is itself built around a logical fallacy - appeal to authority. It's basically telling me to shut up and accept the word of experts.

This is why we can't have nice things.

Are "authority" and "expertise earned through study and experience" really the same thing?  You don't ask the local homeopath to do your gall bladder surgery - at least, I wouldn't, I'm not sure about anyone else.  Maybe after Johnson has sold the NHS to big pharma and we have an equally hellish system as the ghoulish blood feast the Americans call a healthcare system none of us will be quite so picky, but for the moment I'll cede to the made-up "authority" of doctors.

(https://i.imgur.com/up6yu.jpg)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Mister Pops 20 November, 2019, 10:50:13 PM
I was going to ignore this, but I find myself somewhat vexed.

So I'm going to do one of those really annoying internet argument things where you breakdown a post

Thanks for taking the time, SM, Pops, I appreciate it.

Hey, don't mention it.

Whilst it touches on the dangers of logical fallacies, this piece is itself built around a logical fallacy - appeal to authority.


There is also, of course, the Fallacy Fallacy - pointing out a fallacy doesn't disprove anything.

It's basically telling me to shut up and accept the word of experts.

I have read the article closely and I didn't see the part where it told me to shut up.

I'm going to use the idea of computer simulations to highlight the weaknesses of another   ...   In effect, the climate is a limited chaotic system   ...  the further into the future we extrapolate, the more uncertain those predictions become...

This is not the fault of scientists, it's a feature of the universe. Predictions are hard. That's not to say that the experts shouldn't keep at it ...

I agree completely. In fact I think the experts should definitely keep at. I would go even further to say that perhaps they should constantly be re-evaluating their results, comparing them with what's actually happening in reality and then refining their models and theories to improve accuracy. If only there was a term for this sort of endeavour, from which we could derive a word for the people who persue it.

To me, this piece smacks of indoctrination

That's IT! And we'll call it INDOCTRINATION, so the people who persue it DOCTORS.

They have to put food on the table and go where the grant money or salary is.

Do they? The rapscallions!

My understanding of science, though, is that it's all about questions. What, where, why, who, when, how? For a branch of science, especially one so presumably vital to the future of humanity, to deter questions seems...

...like a bit of a disingenious point to make. I don't think they're detering questions, just weary of fielding the same ones over and over and over and over and over and over and over again just because some people don't like the (best) answers they get (based on research* and evidence).


There is, however, one line in there that I wholeheartedly agree with - "Now it’s crucial to reiterate that science is decided by evidence, not by popular opinion." I hope that sentiment applies to the experts as well.

Even if the experts** are just expressing opinions, they are by no means popular.


*Not a synonym for googling
**You should really call them "so called experts" to really drive home how silly they are
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 21 November, 2019, 12:51:54 AM
*sigh*

It’s happening again.

I’ve been in the environmental business in one way or another since I was a teenager. I’ve had thirty years of this. The only difference now is I’m earning qualifications left right and centre on the subject. But I can assure you, I KNOW MY STUFF.


I already understand how CO2 molecules work in the atmosphere. It’s physics 101. It is chemistry 101. Shortwave radiation comes in from the sun and long wave radiation leaves the Earth, heading outwards into space.

However, CO2 traps the long wave radiation. If there were no CO2 in the atmosphere, we’d be a ball of ice. If there were mostly CO2 in the atmosphere we’d be a hellhole like Venus.

This isn’t new science. The heat trapping properties of CO2 have been known since around the 1890s, and confirmed in a gazillion experiments since.


We’ve been at around 280PPM CO2 for several thousands of years, which gave us humans the opportunity to have a civilisation thanks to a largely stable climate, apart from the odd peak or trough due to solar or volcanic activity, or the variance of the Earths orbit.

Now, however, in a geological nanosecond, not in hundreds of thousands of years like previously, we have increased it to 415PPM. That is HIGHER than the atmospheric CO2 PPM during the last CO2 related extinction event several million years ago, and it has occurred over 100 years instead of 100 thousand years. Please read this paragraph again, and wrap your head around it, because it is crucial to our understanding, and therefore our survival.

We know the CO2 increase is coming from burning fossil fuels, because CO2 from that source has a lighter isotope than your bog standard atmospheric CO2. It’s a very simple calculation to therefore work out how much we’ve pumped into the atmosphere, oh, and also to figure out how much has been absorbed by the sea, which by the way is becoming less alkali as a result, affecting marine life significantly (Let’s not mention the actual HEAT the sea has been absorbing also, and is about to spit back out, as I don’t want to totally freak everyone out tonight).

So I’ve been having these arguments and discussions with people for YEARS AND YEARS. Except THIS time everything the scientists have warned us of, everything I have been passing on for the last thirty years, IS NOW HAPPENING IN REAL TIME IN FRONT OF OUR EYES.

Yet STILL there’s arguments and discussions and obfuscations and a whole load of absolute bollocks flying around, while the world is literally BURNING IN FRONT OF US.

But we have to keep trying, don’t we? Because to be nihilistic about it, or doomist as some people call it, is to be in the same league as a climate change denier.

We still have a chance, just barely, to limit the damage. But it’s going to be rough on all species on this planet regardless, because 1.5C is locked in.

So it’s why I come here and have conversations about it.

It’s why I’ve tried my best with you Sharkey, because you seem like a nice chap, and intelligent too.

You’re a bit of an odd fish though Sharkey. It seems you’re happy to accept some scientists, but not others.

Who is telling us about deforestation? Scientists.

Who is telling us about the crisis of plastic in the sea, and even in our drinking water? Scientists.

Who is telling us we are stripping the worlds resources at an unsustainable rate? Scientists.

Who is telling us about the latest breakthroughs in cancer treatment? Scientists.

Who created the internet? Scientists.

Who created computers? Scientists.

Who created cellular networks? Scientists.

Who put satellites into space? Scientists.

Who calculated the best way to get an object the size of a washing machine to land on a comet? Scientists.

Who is warning us of climate ch... oh, hang on - it’s not is it? Is it scientists? The bastards! They’ve been lying to us this whole time to get grant money! (PS - no-one mention the $5 trillion in subsidies the fossil fuel industry got in 2017 as per the IMF report)


At the end of the day, when my tooth aches I believe my dentist has the most up-to-date way of dealing with the problem, so that’s where I’m going. It sounds to me like the dentist is just one of many options for you when you need a filling Sharkey. Good luck with that.

Anyway, TL:DR? I’ll keep posting the latest findings from scientists here, and also some thoughts on the REAL debate, which is how we’re going to save ourselves.

Good luck everyone.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Mister Pops 21 November, 2019, 01:38:35 AM
*sigh*

I know mate, I know...

Who is telling us about deforestation? Scientists.

Who is telling us about the crisis of plastic in the sea, and even in our drinking water? Scientists.

Who is telling us we are stripping the worlds resources at an unsustainable rate? Scientists.

Who is telling us about the latest breakthroughs in cancer treatment? Scientists.

Who created the internet? Scientists.

Who created computers? Scientists.

Who created cellular networks? Scientists.

Who put satellites into space? Scientists.

Who calculated the best way to get an object the size of a washing machine to land on a comet? Scientists.

But what about the experts?
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 21 November, 2019, 02:12:49 AM

https://youtu.be/2bgTi1IXDYA
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Funt Solo 21 November, 2019, 04:14:02 AM
https://youtu.be/2bgTi1IXDYA

That was nice (and, y'know, scary).
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 21 November, 2019, 09:52:42 AM
You don't ask the local homeopath to do your gall bladder surgery
This is what gets me. Sure, there are controversial elements in science, although scientists are usually the first to point that out. For example, when you have experimental medical ideas, which may or may not work, you are alerted to that fact. Experts are broadly unified on climate change. There are only outliers arguing otherwise. And yet people hand-wave it away for whatever reason. It strikes me as no different from those who bafflingly argue immunisation is a big hoax (yeah, tell that to my father in law who missed the polio vaccine by a year, and will next month have his foot and angle permanently fused, to try and stave off being in a wheelchair for a few more years), or who say the Earth is flat and we never landed on the moon.

I don't think they're detering questions, just weary of fielding the same ones over and over and over and over and over and over and over again just because some people don't like the (best) answers they get (based on research* and evidence).
Quite. It’s almost like the opposite of politics, in that the people who push back against the science are the equivalent of Boris Johnson and Michael Gove ignoring anything that doesn’t meet their own particular worldview. But there’s the thing: the world doesn’t give the slightest shit whether or not you believe the climate is heading for meltdown. And when the vast majority of science says that we are the primary reason for this, that we have already possibly hit some tipping points, and that we have to get our act in gear to stop disaster, is it really a good idea to say “but what if 95% of these guys are wrong and being paid by, er, big climate, and the 5% are really the good guys, alongside the oil companies”?

shaolin_monkey: thank you for your efforts on the forum. As for “I don’t want to totally freak everyone out tonight”, I read a piece on that a few months back that more or less locked that in. In short, it basically said we’re already some degrees of fucked, and if you’ve got kids, you should probably treat them well if you have the means, while those means still exist, because life is going to be fucking hard for them when they’re your age. I don’t mind admitting that shook me to the core.

If nothing else, I think this all showcases how humans are en masse terrible at anything beyond short-termism. It feels like we’re simply not programmed to consider the future. We look around at our current circumstances and make assumptions things were always like this. Terrible events sometimes shape said circumstances, and can lead to mass change, but when they fade, people revert to some very curious thinking. Hence why as the generation prior to mass vaccination dies off, people start thinking it’s fine to not vaccinate their kids – just as we’d almost in many countries eradicated killer diseases. Hence why idiots start banging war drums now the echoes of WW2 are finally fading forever. Hence why Brexit is going to happen, because British people cannot fathom how their circumstances can wildly change on the basis of coming out of a tight-knit political, economic and social network built up over decades. And hence why we’re staring down the barrel of climate disaster, because, well, surely things can’t really be that bad and change that much, right?
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: ming 21 November, 2019, 11:09:39 AM
Good luck everyone.

Here's where I stand up from the back row and start applauding, shaolin_monkey.  I struggle to get involved in discussions like this because I start fuming and then it's hard to focus my arguments but it's a joy to read your thoughtful posts and the follow-up material.  Bravo!
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Mikey 21 November, 2019, 11:57:38 AM
It feels like we’re simply not programmed to consider the future.

I was just thinking about this this morning, mainly in relation to our ancestors. It’s something that struck me years ago that one of the things that gets archaeologists excited is spoil heaps – all the waste, crap and detritus that ancient people just tipped at their arse, including if you’re lucky some dropped, worked artifacts. There’s a strand of thought that sees our ancestors as being all essentially hippies, living in harmony with and worshipping nature and keeping a balance on the resources they used. Spoil heaps kind of put paid to that notion at times and the fact that we’re here now is an even bigger clue they weren’t all about treading lightly. It seems clear there was a reverence and greater understanding of nature in many cases and not the total separation from it some have now, but if there was any balance it was because there weren’t enough people to truly knock everything entirely out of whack and we were limited by the vagaries of the natural world. And other humans.

My point is we as a species were always good at exploiting what was around us until it was either done through our own use or environmental conditions changed to move or take it away from us. We’ve just reached a broad point where we can understand, as in quantify, the processes that have shaped and continue to shape the Earth system. A crucial part of that is understanding the recent (and ancient) geological past and pertinently how global climate has changed through the course of our evolution, with little to no input from us for much of that time. The climate has been remarkably stable since the last ice melted but it’s clear and verifiable that it’s going through a rapid change in state – the evidence for which indicates human civilisation as a primary cause. Yes, the world is more than likely moving into full warm, interglacial conditions as background, but the rapid pace of warming is significant. People who deny that are either genuinely uninformed, being wilfully obtuse or being reckless with knowledge.

All we can do is try to slow it down which might give us a chance to work out how we deal with a very different world. If there’s some hitherto unknown variable or rapid feedback that will put the brakes on, particularly one we can make active use of, I’ll be delighted. For now it looks like there isn’t: the main feedbacks operate beyond human timescales. But the way we live is within our timescale, so we can act. We can do environmentally positive things as individuals and communities, and we can demand our governments do the same.

In this context, being a denier is being a defeatist.

I struggle to get involved in discussions like this because I start fuming and then it's hard to focus my arguments...

Yeah, I know what you mean. I allow myself to give in on social media sometimes and just take the piss out of and troll climate wonks, hoping I'll at least ruin their day.


M.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 21 November, 2019, 11:57:54 AM
Thanks all.  I'll keep posting, but I'm going to try and post the more positive constructive things from here on, as we're probably all aware of the trouble we're in already.

I was chatting to Michael E Mann on Twitter the other day.  He's been battling with fossil fuel-led thinktanks and right wing ideologues determined to boot him into touch for decades, trying to keep the facts front and centre, which we were discussing.

I said "Thanks for fighting the good fight." His response was simply a GIF of a battered and bloody Captain America with the caption "I can do this all day." 

I honestly don't know how he maintains his energy and positivity in the face of it all, 'cos to be fair it's draining the fuck out of me.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 21 November, 2019, 12:16:48 PM
Oh man - pages 11 to 25.  It's so good. 

https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Real-Change-Labour-Manifesto-2019.pdf

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 21 November, 2019, 12:22:47 PM
Page 98 as well:

Climate Diplomacy

There is no greater injustice today than countries in the Global South paying the price for a climate crisis they did not cause. Yet some world leaders, including US President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, champion a climate-change denial agenda.

Britain’s climate-change diplomacy was respected internationally, playing an important role in securing the Paris Agreement, following the leading role the UK played in securing the Kyoto Agreement. However, Boris Johnson – who has described global warming as a ‘primitive fear… without foundation’ – has overseen a 60% cut in the UK’s global network of climate experts.

Only Labour can rebuild Britain’s leadership on the most serious threat to our shared humanity.

We will:

• Rebuild our climate expertise within the Foreign Office, putting climate diplomacy at the heart of
our foreign policy.

• Use our influence at the UN, EU, G7, G20, World Bank, the Commonwealth and other global institutions to promote policies to tackle the climate emergency.

• Use our diplomatic expertise to negotiate and deliver more ambitious global targets to deal with the climate emergency, starting with COP 26 in Glasgow next year.


Damn, this is bloody good stuff!!
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 21 November, 2019, 01:01:27 PM

I'm not making myself clear, so let me try again. I have every respect for scientists and experts, I respect their knowledge, their expertise, and their humanity. I also respect and love science - it's drokking fantastic, after all.

What concerns me is the politicisation of certain aspects of science, how it's used and abused and spotlighted, distorted through a political lens for political and financial ends. Thus it seems to the general public that there are only two positions to take - one either believes that climate change is 100% the fault of humans (which I personally cannot get on board with), or it has absolutely nothing to do with humans at all (which I also cannot accept).

So, as one who says that investigations, experiments, and analyses should encompass far more things than just CO2, and that our solutions should also look to casting a wider net, I somehow find myself lumped together with flat Earthers and people who don't believe in gravity.

There's a whole conversation going on in the Political Thread concerning the apparent failures of various media over reporting the "official line" without question, but on this thread questioning the "official line" is seen as the failure.

It's not as if science, drokking fantastic though it is, doesn't have its own inherent prejudices and biases. Professors don't tend to get tenure unless they broadly toe the line (which isn't, in itself, an entirely bad thing - stability is important) and, historically, the many and varied contributions of women have been marginalised, dismissed, stolen and ridiculed because, well, she's only a woman (though I believe this particular prejudice has, in recent times, thankfully fallen more and more by the wayside).

But science, like most other institutions, slowly evolves and old prejudices are left behind, sometimes to reveal new ones. Science is not perfect but it's the best tool for understanding the universe we've got. Indeed, when the ozone layer looked in danger of falling off completely, science offered a solution that very much seems to have worked as the ozone "holes" are getting smaller and smaller, with predictions guesstimating the layer should be back to "normal" by 2080. Hooray us! We've already saved ourselves once so we should be able to do it again, right? Well, hopefully. Ozone is also a greenhouse gas and restoring it has caused knock-on effects from the Antarctic as far as the equator, with knock-on effects from the knock-on effects spreading virtually all over the globe. This does not mean that ozone replenishment is driving climate change all by itself, or even at all, but it is having an effect as the system swings back into equilibrium.

Just like human emissions, the effects of ozone replenishment must be taken into account, even if only to be sure that the effects of one aren't being wholly or partially mistaken for the effects of the other. I'm pretty sure most climate scientists are aware of this.

So, once and for all, I am not anti-science. I don't believe that all the scientists and experts are foolish and wrong. I don't believe that all the data is inaccurate or worthless. I don't think the Earth is flat or that gravity doesn't exist. I also don't think it's wise to put all our eggs in one basket.

Politicians, on the other hand, are different beasts altogether. They like to simplify problems. "You're either for us, or against us." The almost evangelical political focus on CO2 is emblematic of political oversimplification. It leads the public to think that everyone knows exactly what the problem is and how to fix it. After all, we fixed the ozone layer so we can fix the climate.

But I can't be only one wondering about contingency plans. Hopefully fixing the CO2 problem will put the climate back on track - but what if it doesn't? What if it has little or no effect? What if it has unexpected knock-on effects, causing even more extreme weather events as the atmosphere swirls back into a more natural equilibrium?

Does it not make more sense to investigate and test other possibilities alongside CO2? And shouldn't we be doing that now, just in case? Shouting people like me down, calling us climate deniers or flat-Earthers because we look at things from a different perspective, well, that's a political tactic, not a scientific one.

In the final analysis, it makes no difference what I think the levels of AGW are, so why the hostility? It's not like I'm advocating the abandonment of science or anything. In fact, I'm asking - pleading, begging - for more of it. Preferably without all the vitriolic political spin.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 21 November, 2019, 01:06:24 PM
I'm sorry if I came across as hostile Sharkey. I'm just a bit fed up of seeing all the same arguments come up time and again - we should be long past it now. 

The debate should not be about what is happening, as we know what is happening, but rather what we can do to get on top of it.  So that's what I'm going to concentrate on from here on in.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 21 November, 2019, 02:44:54 PM

You weren't hostile at all, SM, not a bit of it. I'm pretty sure we all want the same thing in the end - to live on a planet that isn't trying to kill us.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 21 November, 2019, 02:57:12 PM
Amen brother.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Funt Solo 21 November, 2019, 06:37:56 PM
Hopefully fixing the CO2 problem will put the climate back on track - but what if it doesn't?

What if it does?
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 21 November, 2019, 06:46:12 PM

If it does you can all say "I told you so" and I'll be jolly happy to stand there and smile while you do.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Mikey 21 November, 2019, 07:17:40 PM
Shouting people like me down, calling us climate deniers or flat-Earthers because we look at things from a different perspective, well, that's a political tactic, not a scientific one.

... Preferably without all the vitriolic political spin.

You're playing the victim again. I don't see that anyone shouted you down - you made an initial post espousing a contrary opinion without any real substance which was rebutted again, and you threw some politics and claims of conclusions being directly related to money. You don't think there's a consensus amongst the scientific community, but there's one on this thread by the look of it, so if you want to talk about the political aspects, there's a thread for that sure.

Also, ozone is a really poor choice to illustrate your post I'd say. It has a cooling effect in the stratossphere and a warming one in the troposphere and a low residence time. The solution to damage to the ozone layer was to ban the use of CFCs and their ilk, not to add more ozone.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 21 November, 2019, 08:02:32 PM
Thanks, Mikey.

I didn't say I don't think there's a consensus, I said the paper which has been used to claim a consensus among all scientists does no such thing. There may very well be a consensus, but - contrary to what politicians and the media would have us think -  in science a consensus is not Truth, it's the most widely accepted current theory. In the minds of the public, this suggests that anyone questioning the theory is questioning the Truth. And only fools question the Truth. Consensus has become the new word for proof, the new word for faith.

But science is full of fools questioning the Truth, from Galileo tossing his balls over the parapet at Pisa to Al Gore making a film (I really must watch that again, see how it holds up). But of course most of them aren't fools questioning the Truth, they're thinkers questioning the most widely accepted current theory.

You are right, though, in that I wasn't literally shouted down, that was an overstatement.

Lastly, I'm glad you got my point about the ozone layer being a different thing to climate change, and that just because we seem to have fixed that problem it doesn't guarantee that we can fix this new one, hence my call for wider research and strategies.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Funt Solo 21 November, 2019, 09:01:20 PM
You didn't just compare yourself to Galileo? (Or Al Gore?)

Consensus doesn't ask for faith. In the context of the current debate, it suggests action.

What does it help to wander along and say "Well, but what if you're wrong?"

---

The house is on fire. I will apply water. Person walking by: "Yeah, but what if you're wrong?" (What good is that person doing?)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 21 November, 2019, 09:17:59 PM

Heh, no, I'm not Galileo - I don't have the differently weighted balls for it.

Consensus does ask for faith - a majority of people would be unwise to support something in which they have no faith. Okay, that's just wordplay. Scientfically, consensus does not prove truth - but politically, it does.

"What if you're wrong" is the reason we have seat belts - we hope we'll never need them but we're glad they're there.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Funt Solo 21 November, 2019, 10:12:20 PM
Data is the reason we have seat belts.

Your argument against action being taken against runaway CO2 is (as you've stated several times) "what if we're wrong".

In that context you'd be arguing against seat belts on the basis that wearing them might enact some more dangerous outcome despite the safety benefits.

You're a slippery eel in a debate setting: starting with undermining scientific consensus on CO2 emissions by claiming it's actually a political agenda. Anytime anyone confronts you on it you sidestep and bring up another semi-relevant issue.

Now I'm not sure why you're even talking (or why I'm responding). If you agree (with the science) that CO2 emissions need to be drastically curbed, then we agree with each other and there's little point in a debate (although there might be some in discussing action). If you disagree, then state why and defend your position. Otherwise: what are we doing?
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Mikey 21 November, 2019, 10:27:19 PM
Consensus does ask for faith - a majority of people would be unwise to support something in which they have no faith. Okay, that's just wordplay. Scientfically, consensus does not prove truth - but politically, it does.

Scientific consensus is A Thing. It's slightly different from the general use of consensus - it refers to the process of presenting, discussing and publishing via peer review within the particular field , it's not just a canvassing of general opinion.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 21 November, 2019, 11:32:09 PM

I agree that the consensus seems to be that CO2 emissions should be drastically curbed.

But that's not enough. Nowhere near. Methane emissions also need to be curbed, for example. And, while we're at it, other toxins. For one thing, artificial fertilisers and pesticides used in the US leech into rivers and gather in the Gulf of Mexico, causing dead zones. These dead zones attain higher temperatures than unaffected waters, making more energy available to hurricanes. In the mind of the public, more energetic hurricanes must be due to climate change, which is due to human CO2 emissions. So they'll blame the CO2 (which the politicians know how to tackle) and ignore the other causes - especially as the agri-corporations pump so much money into the green movement to fight that nasty CO2 (and as much  into political lobbying).

The danger, as I see it, is that CO2 is an oversimplification of the problem which leads to a belief in an oversimplified solution: handle the CO2, solve the problem.

Now, I know that we're stuck with the current global governmental network and I know it's corrupt and power-hungry and I know I don't trust it but I also know this monstrous network has a measurable effect on just about every aspect of life - and I hate that, as you all know. Governments don't do anything that doesn't benefit governments and their friends and benefactors. When governments detect a crisis, they devise ways to exploit it in such a way as to make that exploitation seem like positive action. This is my view, and I know it puts me in the minority.

What bigger crisis is there than the ruination of our most precious jewel, the planet Earth? But that ruination is being carried out by the biggest corporations - and us, for supporting them - and those corporations pay a fair bit in taxes and, er, other contributions. So governments can't really pin very much on them - maybe a few symbolic slaps on the wrist, for appearances' sake.

What's needed, politically, is an ambiguous bogeyman. The public's starting to cotton on to the fact that we're not looking after our planet very well but we can't blame the Big Corporations because of all the £ involved. But hang on - the scientists are moaning about CO2. That'll do. We'll "solve" the problem by blaming CO2 and taxing it. We'll take money from the people, sinking them further into debt to make them easier to control, and use it to subsidise the Big Corporations' green initiatives. We'll also chuck some cash at science, so long as it studies AGW to support our plans. It's a win-win because everybody produces CO2 and CO2 is a greenhouse gas that raises temperatures, but no one corporation is responsible because CO2 is inevitable. Therefore, CO2 is the ideal bogeyman.

This is why I believe that CO2 is only a part, and to my mind a relatively small part, of the overall problem. It needs to be tackled, of course it does, and a great deal of study has indeed been done in this area because (I suspect) that's where the governments, and their partner corporations, put the money. To convince us that CO2 is The Problem and that they have The Solution.

I know, I know - my conviction that governments are an intrinsically illusory and inherent abuse of power with no other objective than to maintain the status quo is colouring my opinions but, hey, at least I'm consistent...

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 21 November, 2019, 11:34:27 PM
Consensus does ask for faith - a majority of people would be unwise to support something in which they have no faith. Okay, that's just wordplay. Scientfically, consensus does not prove truth - but politically, it does.

Scientific consensus is A Thing. It's slightly different from the general use of consensus - it refers to the process of presenting, discussing and publishing via peer review within the particular field , it's not just a canvassing of general opinion.

I agree. Political consensus, however, is a different thing. It's my hope to divorce one from the other.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 21 November, 2019, 11:38:43 PM
Follow the money.

Your conspiracy Geiger counter is correct to be clicking away there, but I reckon you should point it in this direction:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Merchants-Doubt-Handful-Scientists-Obscured/dp/1408824833
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 21 November, 2019, 11:42:04 PM

I'll have to try and get the pdf from Pirate Bay... ;)

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Funt Solo 22 November, 2019, 04:11:50 AM
Let Captain Planet (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TwJaELXadKo) handle it!
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Mikey 22 November, 2019, 09:22:43 AM
Consensus does ask for faith - a majority of people would be unwise to support something in which they have no faith. Okay, that's just wordplay. Scientfically, consensus does not prove truth - but politically, it does.

Scientific consensus is A Thing. It's slightly different from the general use of consensus - it refers to the process of presenting, discussing and publishing via peer review within the particular field , it's not just a canvassing of general opinion.

I agree. Political consensus, however, is a different thing. It's my hope to divorce one from the other.

You're the one who brings politics into it - so go shout it on the politics thread.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 22 November, 2019, 10:00:15 AM

Okay, Mikey. I'll do my best to keep politics out of the biggest political issue in global politics.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Professor Bear 22 November, 2019, 11:56:24 AM
There will be none of this backchat in the ATOS compulsory work farms, Sharky, so you may as well get it out of your system now.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 22 November, 2019, 12:37:43 PM

ATOS macht frei.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 22 November, 2019, 02:05:21 PM
Let Captain Planet (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TwJaELXadKo) handle it!

Brilliant!  :D

Cheered me right up, thanks Captain Planet!
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Mikey 22 November, 2019, 03:47:42 PM

Okay, Mikey. I'll do my best to keep politics out of the biggest political issue in global politics.

All that says to me is you've got nothing on the science, data or its interpretation so you want to talk about your political views. Again.

Meh.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Funt Solo 22 November, 2019, 06:47:05 PM
I agree that the consensus seems to be that CO2 emissions should be drastically curbed.

...I believe that CO2 is ... a relatively small part, of the overall problem.

You used more words but ultimately you seem to be placing your belief over scientific consensus. Hubris.

If it actually was the case that governments are on board with drastically curbing CO2 emissions, I'd have some sympathy for your perspective. I know some people are trying to monetize the situation (as they do any situation - that CO2 dollar, that's a big dollar), but that doesn't mean they're seriously attempting to fix (or even recognize) the problem, or that the problem isn't real.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Frank 22 November, 2019, 06:50:41 PM
... that CO2 dollar, that's a big dollar

A Bill Hicks fan! Makes sense.


: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Mister Pops 22 November, 2019, 09:56:24 PM
Consensus does ask for faith - a majority of people would be unwise to support something in which they have no faith. Okay, that's just wordplay. Scientfically, consensus does not prove truth - but politically, it does.

Scientific consensus is A Thing. It's slightly different from the general use of consensus - it refers to the process of presenting, discussing and publishing via peer review within the particular field , it's not just a canvassing of general opinion.

I agree. Political consensus, however, is a different thing. It's my hope to divorce one from the other.

But...you just tried to conflate them? Or concatenate them? Or convulute everything? I don't fuckin' know, I give up.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: JayzusB.Christ 23 November, 2019, 08:13:51 AM
Consensus does ask for faith - a majority of people would be unwise to support something in which they have no faith. Okay, that's just wordplay. Scientfically, consensus does not prove truth - but politically, it does.

Scientific consensus is A Thing. It's slightly different from the general use of consensus - it refers to the process of presenting, discussing and publishing via peer review within the particular field , it's not just a canvassing of general opinion.

I agree. Political consensus, however, is a different thing. It's my hope to divorce one from the other.

But...you just tried to conflate them? Or concatenate them? Or convulute everything? I don't fuckin' know, I give up.

I gave up arguing with The Shark about this kind of thing long ago, I'm afraid.  However, I have learned quite a bit from others arguing against him - the sheer scale of scientific consensus on man-made climate change, for example. (I also knew very little about the anti-vaxxer 'argument' before it arose on this board; whereas now I'm sufficiently educated to br convinced that it's dangerous nonsense.)  Sorry, Sharky, but that's the way it is with me. 
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Frank 23 November, 2019, 09:46:37 AM

While it's tempting to read this thread as Shark vs Rest Of World, the British public are mostly Shark (https://www.bsa.natcen.ac.uk/media/39251/bsa35_climate_change.pdf)*


(https://i.imgur.com/z9xoGqv.png?2)


* And that's after years of the aforementioned Captain Planet and environmental issues being foregrounded in dumb blockbuster movies of the nineties
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 23 November, 2019, 10:18:27 AM
That’s a great find - thanks Frank. I had a quick scan through the doc just now, but I’ll take some time with it this evening.

Unfortunately I’m up against some tight essay deadlines with my current course, but on reviewing some of the material I was reminded of this excellent lecture on the ideology driving man-made climate change denial. It is pertinent to our conversations also about trying to separate the scientific from the political, as Sharkey has described above.

A link to the 7 minute lecture for most folk, and a transcript for Sharkey below:




https://youtu.be/qLF6S7vlZDA

Oreskes: Climate change denial in the United States is almost entirely motivated by politics. A lot of scientists have thought that it was a problem of science illiteracy, that it was a problem of public understanding, that if we just explained the science better that then we would solve this problem. And that doesn't work because the problem is not being driven by lack of access to information, although that may play a role in some cases, the problem is being driven by people not wanting to believe the science because they don't like its implications.

Lewandowsky: When it comes to the drivers of belief or acceptance of scientific findings, in particular climate change, then what we find is that one of the most important factors is a person’s worldview or you can call it a political ideology, their belief in things such as the free market. It turns out, that in particular in the case of climate change, that people who are very enthusiastic about free markets and who think that government should not interfere with free markets, that they tend to reject the findings from climate change, climate science based on that ideology. It’s a very strong effect. It’s a huge effect.

Oreskes: If you take climate science seriously, it means we need to do something, we need to do something that changes the way we operate. And that something could be very personal.
It could be changing the way you live. It could be becoming a vegetarian, not traveling or building a zero energy home, but it also could be something that the government does.
And a lot of the early attention about climate change particularly focused on governance.
It focused on either the idea of international governance in the form of, say, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change or it focused on national governance in the form of a carbon tax or an emission trading system. So these are government interventions in the marketplace.

Scott: In the case of climate change where it’s more of a political ideology and/or an economic ideology, the concerns are more along the lines of, “Well, if climate change is true, that means that we’re going to have to strengthen central government because we’re going to have to have to take steps to curb the carbon production so that we can reduce the amount of CO2 in the air. That means a bigger central government. As political conservatives, we don’t want a big central government. It means we’re going to have to put some constraints on capitalism. That’s socialism.” There’s a lot of things that political conservatives are going to lose also if climate change is right.

Oreskes: If you don’t like the idea of a government intervention in the marketplace because you believe in free market economics or you just worry about government encroachment—you worry about expanding the government—then the kinds of solutions that are being put forward for climate change are things you don’t like. That’s a major, probably the single major reason why the Americans who reject climate science do it, because if you look at the data on it, what you see is that the strongest correlation between climate-change denial is with a certain kind of conservative politics that emphasises the free market.
It’s not correlated with race. It’s not correlated with age or gender or even religious belief, with one exception that’s tied to conservative politics, which is a certain sector of the evangelical community, but it’s tied to a set of conservative beliefs about governance.

Hayhoe: The main reason why people don’t think climate change is real is not because of lack of facts. Most of the people that I meet from day to day—the lady in the grocery store, or the man across the street—they have arguments at the tip of their fingers as to why they don’t think climate change is real. They will cite the stolen e-mails.
They will say, “Global warming stopped 17 years ago.” They have arguments, factual or semi-factual based arguments about why it’s not true. Why is everybody so convinced?
It’s because we are all cognitive misers. We don’t have the brain power to understand every single issue in the world. I don’t know if we ever did, but, especially now, I mean, I don’t understand the fundamentals of stem cell research. I don’t really understand the pluses and negatives of nuclear power, to be perfectly honest. I certainly don’t understand the economic benefits and trade-offs of all the various climate policies that are being considered. You can understand how the average person doesn’t understand the climate science, so what do we do? We go to people we trust. In the United States, when we look at people we trust, if you look at the conservative half of the country, with one voice, conservative media, conservative thought leaders, and conservative politicians are telling us that this isn’t a real problem.

Hamilton: In the literature, there are some accounts that I consider to be top down in explaining opposition to things like clean air and clean water—that is, there are political elites. There are ideological think tanks. There are large donors. There are media networks that are arguing from the top and telling people that these are the arguments; these are the positions; here are some scientific-sounding rationales or an economic-sounding rationale—that all being top down. Bottom up—I think there are people who are more or less inclined to listen to those arguments and to credit them or to discredit the alternatives. Some of that may be psychological. Some of it may have to do with your social position. We see all kinds of differences in terms of gender and education and age but dominated by differences in ideology, worldview, or political party.

Alley: It's frustrating right because there shouldn't be a serious role for politics in climate science, in my opinion. The science is science. And it was. The first time I ever testified to a subcommittee of the US Senate was 12 years ago. And it was chaired by a Republican who was about to introduce a bill that was going to put a price on changing the climate through carbon emissions and I personally think that he was just a little
bit unhappy with me because I was not scarier about the threats. I was being very careful and measured, and this is [snap] that long ago. The idea that somehow your politics that you're on this side or that side means that you or don't believe that believe that C02 is a greenhouse gas. There is a little bit of that now, but it's a very very recent thing.
And it's the thing that I think that I hope can disappear again.

Lewandowsky: You have to explain to the majority of people why there is a small but vocal minority that is denying the science. I think it’s very important for the public to understand that those people are motivated by factors such as personal ideology.

Oreskes: If I have one message that's what my message has been all along and it still is: this is not a scientific debate; it's a political debate. But it's a political debate being made to look like a scientific debate.



: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: JayzusB.Christ 23 November, 2019, 12:16:29 PM
My last post was a bit harsh. Sorry. Woke up feelin grumpy having to work on a Saturday. Also it's a bit wet / cold etc outside.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 23 November, 2019, 01:03:13 PM

Oreskes: If I have one message that's what my message has been all along and it still is: this is not a scientific debate; it's a political debate. But it's a political debate being made to look like a scientific debate.

Yes. Thanks, SM, that's a big part of what I've been trying to say, in my own ham-fisted and verbose way.

The political position does not disqualify the scientific position any more than the scientific position proves the political position. They are different animals. The scientific position is strengthened by counter-arguments, additional or re interpreted data, and questions, whereas the political position is weakened by them.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 23 November, 2019, 02:42:07 PM
The fact is the science is done, it’s settled, and has been for decades. Man-made greenhouse gasses CO2, methane,  and nitrous oxide, with CO2 being by far the largest contributor, are causing the distinct and very unusual increase in the average global temperature.

Certain interests would have you believe this is still in dispute. They create doubt, and use this to continue with their agendas.  These interests are usually economical or driven by right wing ideology.  This is because to accept these facts would damage or destroy their income stream, or the ideologies upon which they have come to depend, such as limiting state involvement in a free market economy.

So what Oreskes is saying is that what is being disputed is no longer the science. It is the politics. However, it is being made to look like the science is still being debated, when in fact the science is settled - it is an ideological and political debate that is occurring.


Hence why it is no longer useful or interesting to debate this.  So we should really now be posting about solutions to the problem, sidestepping the narrative those vested interests would have you engage in.


: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 23 November, 2019, 03:42:36 PM

The science is settled?

Okay then. This is about where I came in, and that statement marks the point where I have to bow out.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 23 November, 2019, 04:22:56 PM
Thanks, shaolin. This is the thing that baffles me with detractors. This isn’t new or controversial science. It’s no less agreed on than vaccination effectiveness and necessity. Yet we’re still wondering if people are fucking things up or if it’s all a stunning coincidence that just happens to map directly to our pollution.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Tjm86 23 November, 2019, 07:31:27 PM
I have to admit to being a little baffled by the number of people that are surprised at the sudden acceleration in the increase in mean global temperature.  Any halfway competent mathematician (hell, any incompetent mathematician) will be able to tell you that any higher order function can look like a linear function if you only examine a small range.  So the idea that temperature growth is going to continue to be linear smacks of naïveté.

Perhaps Sorkin had it right in the Newsroom.  It's like we are in the car in the garage with the engine running and have slipped into unconsciousness ...
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 23 November, 2019, 07:55:30 PM
Christ, I’ve spent all day finishing that climate change course, locked away in one room.

The good news is, even though I’m still waiting for an essay to be marked I’m already over the course pass mark - so I have passed !!

Hurrah!

Anyway, I’d thoroughly recommend the course.


https://www.edx.org/course/making-sense-of-climate-science-denial-2
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 24 November, 2019, 10:22:45 AM
The bushfires in Australia exacerbated by man-made climate change have made koala’s functionally extinct.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2019/11/23/koalas-functionally-extinct-after-australia-bushfires-destroy-80-of-their-habitat/#70ee17f97bad

Response from leading climatologist:

“Make no mistake. This would be a climate change-caused extinction.”
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 24 November, 2019, 12:35:34 PM
You know what phrase I never expected to hear in my lifetime?  "Koalas are extinct". 

I understand the difference between 'functionally' and 'gone for good', but keriste that is grim news.  You can certainly imagine the loss of multiple species of samey-looking bird species, unappealing insects, almost-invisible amphibians and other less photogenic or recognisable creatures, but when this mass extinction reaches out and grabs one of the cast of My First Book of Animals you know things are sliding faster and faster into the pit.  My sister-in-law worked with a koala sanctuary, and I've a picture right here of my niece holding one.  Almost unbelievable.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 24 November, 2019, 12:55:29 PM

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2203655-no-koalas-are-not-functionally-extinct-but-they-are-in-trouble/

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Frank 24 November, 2019, 01:05:08 PM

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2203655-no-koalas-are-not-functionally-extinct-but-they-are-in-trouble/

https://www.newscientist.com/search/?q=man+made+climate&search=&sort=relevance


: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Jim_Campbell 24 November, 2019, 01:05:24 PM
That New Scientist article predates the recent announcement on koalas. They were in trouble before, but 80% of their habitat is now gone, thanks to climate exacerbated brush fires.

You really need to stop googling for something to support your knee jerk contrarianism and then posting the first link that looks like it might back up your point, Shark.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 24 November, 2019, 01:06:55 PM

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2203655-no-koalas-are-not-functionally-extinct-but-they-are-in-trouble/

That’s from May Sharkey, prior to the bushfires that have killed thousands of them, and destroyed approx 80% of their habitat.

Eucalyptus trees take a significant amount of time to grow back, and Koalas, who need to eat several pounds a day, don’t recognise the leaves if they are put in a bowl in front of them. So the ones who are left are really going to struggle, even with a concerted effort from us.

That article eludes to some groups thinking they were functionally extinct prior to May.  Since the bushfires it is nigh on impossible to now refute.



 
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 24 November, 2019, 01:11:31 PM

Link to the "functionally extinct" article from SM's post: https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/48284392

Note the date.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 24 November, 2019, 01:40:59 PM

Link to the "functionally extinct" article from SM's post: https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/48284392

Note the date.

I see your point Sharky.  The news report therefore appears not to be reporting on the latest findings from scientists, but rather noting the recent damage to habitat, putting it alongside an article prior to the bushfires, and coming to an assumption that if they weren’t functionally extinct before, they certainly are now.

So, point taken - let’s see how this one plays out.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Hawkmumbler 24 November, 2019, 01:52:01 PM
“CBBC”

Oy vey, we using simplified articles for children in academic debates these days?
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 24 November, 2019, 02:15:48 PM
Here we go - a more thoughtful article on the matter:

https://www.cnet.com/news/koalas-are-not-functionally-extinct-but-they-need-our-help/

So I guess for Koalas it is a case of  ‘the situation is bad, but wait and see ‘.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 24 November, 2019, 02:51:29 PM

Thanks, SM, that's a much better article, more balanced and with (to my mind at least) a very important final paragraph.

Now, I'm willing to accept that a certain amount of fearmongering might be perceived as necessary in order to gee people up but too much of it will put people off and lead them to question all the science, which would be really bad.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 24 November, 2019, 04:39:22 PM
So I guess for Koalas it is a case of  ‘the situation is bad, but wait and see ‘.

Why am I reminded of the episode where Homer hangs on to his pumpkin shares until November to see if they  keep going up.

I take Shark's rigorous approach in the spirit in which it is intended, but that such a anthropomorphised animal, so embedded in national psyche and international affection, should be pushed to the brink is absolutely chilling.  The hard lessons of (successful) Panda conservation, that resources are disproportionately (if not exclusively) concentrated on the cute'n'cuddly to the detriment of preserving entire ecosystems, don't even seem to apply here.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 24 November, 2019, 05:30:52 PM
I believe a koala is what you might call an ‘umbrella’ species, in much the same way an orangutan is. Basically, you can’t preserve them without preserving the environment in which they live. Which means, by making sure they don’t become extinct you also preserve the entire ecology around them.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: paddykafka 25 November, 2019, 08:40:02 PM
Day 174 of unending rain (at least that's what it seems like). My eyebrows feel like windscreen wipers. >:(
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 26 November, 2019, 12:18:02 PM
Day 174 of unending rain (at least that's what it seems like). My eyebrows feel like windscreen wipers. >:(

Where are you based?  Are you seeing an unusual amount of rain?


You may well have seen on the front page (!!! - makes a very welcome change) of the BBC News page today.

'Climate change: 'Bleak' outlook as carbon emissions gap grows'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-50547073


Reading that you might be tempted to throw your hands in the air and cry "Why bother trying then?  We're all doomed anyway!"

As mentioned before, that's a bit doomist, and is as good as being a climate change denier in terms of thwarting any damage limitation we can do.

So here's something a bit more positive instead - PROJECT DRAWDOWN!   :thumbsup:

https://www.drawdown.org/solutions

This project was set up to gather together all the solutions (because we're going to need as many as possible) to turn us away from a fossil fuel-driven society, away from building materials that contribute significant amounts of CO2, away from farming practises that reduce the planet's ability to sequester CO2 from the atmosphere, and so on and so forth.

Have a read through the solutions, and let me know what you think!



Also, if you are based in the UK, why not join in the Big Climate Fightback with the Woodland Trust at the end of the month?

Pledge to plant on the 30th!  :thumbsup:

https://www.woodlandtrust.org.uk/protecting-trees-and-woods/campaign-with-us/big-climate-fightback/





: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 26 November, 2019, 12:32:31 PM

Here's one I like. (http://wearetheark.org/?fbclid=IwAR1rBzD8zBzaVX1jQGPDwErxr_dlW2WZjhVmRXGc7FTm7jW9yh9xnPRjBmg)

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 26 November, 2019, 12:41:20 PM
shaolin_monkey: seeing as you seem pretty clued up on this stuff, are there any projects you’d recommend for offsetting carbon? Now, I know “don’t fly” is the ideal scenario, but I’m not going to deny the opportunity for mini-IP to ever see her family abroad again. But I would like to figure out a way on those flights to send money to a cause that may cancel out the impact we’re making.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 26 November, 2019, 12:51:01 PM
I'm not well versed in carbon offsetting - I haven't really looked at it as an alternative to just leaving fossil fuels in the ground.  However, I completely get where you're coming from, and indeed this issue of families spread across the globe has been raised before.

I recalled this old article from the Guardian that might be useful:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/sep/16/carbon-offset-projects-carbon-emissions

Otherwise, a bit of careful online research may be your best way forward.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 26 November, 2019, 12:58:39 PM

Look at the link I posted for a small part of an answer. More biodiversity, more carbon stored.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: paddykafka 26 November, 2019, 02:17:00 PM
Day 174 of unending rain (at least that's what it seems like). My eyebrows feel like windscreen wipers. >:(

Where are you based?  Are you seeing an unusual amount of rain?

I'm based in Dublin and yep, it's been raining virtually every day since, I would say, at least last Wednesday. I can't remember when I last saw actual sunshine, what with the perpetual cloud covering everything. It is akin to being trapped in a particularly horrible, grey, really itchy jumper.

But things are supposed to improve come Friday. Fingers crossed! :o
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Tjm86 26 November, 2019, 03:03:20 PM

I'm based in Dublin and yep, it's been raining virtually every day since, I would say, at least last Wednesday. I can't remember when I last saw actual sunshine, ....


Whereas here in Wales we hardly ever see the rain ...
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Jim_Campbell 26 November, 2019, 03:21:29 PM
are there any projects you’d recommend for offsetting carbon?

Right. The average person in the UK is responsible for 9.5 tonnes of carbon emissions per year. The average emission for jet travel is 115g/km per passenger.

Let's say you're flying to… I dunno? Scandinavia? Let's say Stockholm. The flight's a round trip of 2800km.

2800 km x 0.000115 tonnes = 0.322 tonnes of carbon

So if you killed just one person aged, say, 40, that's probably 40 years of emissions you've saved, which is 380 tonnes of carbon.

Which means that you could fly a round trip to Stockholm almost every week for the next twenty-five years and still come out carbon-negative.

Wait! It gets better, though — imagine that instead of eating beef, you ate that person? Suddenly, we're well into carbon-negative territory.

You'd be saving the planet, man. The numbers don't lie. It would be irresponsible not to do it.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 26 November, 2019, 03:27:39 PM
Update on the koalas:

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/2019/11/koalas-near-extinction-myth-australia-fires/
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 30 November, 2019, 01:48:04 AM
This is a great article - broad strokes, but links to some very interesting sources.

Also, I think I mentioned the IMF fossil fuel subsidy report previously, but it’s great to see this getting reported more widely.

https://theconversation.com/the-five-corrupt-pillars-of-climate-change-denial-122893
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Professor Bear 30 November, 2019, 03:25:12 AM
Normally known for 2 hour videos about obscure Russian games from the mid-2000s you've never heard of and will never play or 78-hour videogame marathons specifically meant to spite IT Crowd writer Graham Linehan by turning him into a worldwide joke and paradigm for the entrenched bigotry of middle-aged UK media luvvies, Hbomberguy's old-ish vid on climate change denialism (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLqXkYrdmjY) is actually quite a useful examination of how skepticism has been hijacked by the climate change denial lobby as a means of achieving their ends.
Buuuuut... it can also be viewed as a macro examination of how, in a world where more and more people record or dissect every last thing and their thoughts and observations can go global in a matter of minutes without the platform of "old" media, the only response by the media class is to double down on their worth as narrative creators by continually destroying the very concept of certainty to the point that each person lives in their own cultivated reality by choosing what facts to believe in as being real - facts supplied by that same media class through crafted consensus on major issues, as well as the more insidious stuff like targeted Facebook ads.  By eroding certainty and making you doubt everything, they make their consensus on Soylent Green being popular as well as tasty look like a more valid version of the world than the one being offered by a lone whistleblower on social media telling you what Soylent Green is made of.
Also the video has that bit in it where Hbomb uses an axe to chop his way through a wall to shout at Ben Shapiro that you probably saw on Twitter.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Hawkmumbler 30 November, 2019, 01:54:10 PM
"Just one small problem, SELL THEIR HOUSES TO WHO, BEN?! FUCKING AQUAMAN?!"

A decade defining moment.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 10 December, 2019, 09:53:10 AM

Posted without comment:

Two-million-year-old snapshots of atmospheric gases from Antarctic ice. (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1692-3)

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 21 December, 2019, 08:51:03 AM
Tuesday in Australia saw the 40.9C temperature eclipse the previous record of 40.3C, set in 2013.

Then, that record was smashed on Wednesday - which saw an average maximum of 41.9C.

Currently there is a ring of bushfire around Sydney. The smog of the city is currently the 5th worst in the world. The bushfires themselves are pumping millions of tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere.

Lithgow is being hit hard - streets are burning up on the outskirts, and routes out of the town are shutting down fast - some highways completely closed already.

It’s hellish in Australia, and this is just the start of their summer.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/dec/21/australia-bushfires-catastrophic-conditions-declared-for-nsw-after-horror-day

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Jim_Campbell 21 December, 2019, 10:36:58 AM
It’s hellish in Australia, and this is just the start of their summer.

It's so hot birds are just falling dead out of the trees. (https://twitter.com/martine_maron/status/1208276950357176320?s=20)

(Warning: dead birds in photos linked above, possibly upsetting to some.)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 21 December, 2019, 11:07:37 AM
I have a friend in Sydney who posted two pics, one taken a year ago, and one recently with a yellow sky. But is this issue in any way avoidable? As in, are these fires and their scale now inevitable, or have bad government decisions in terms of funding played a role (as they have here with flooding)?
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: JayzusB.Christ 21 December, 2019, 11:27:17 AM
Yep, a friend of mine is just back from Sidney.  It's a mess.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 21 December, 2019, 01:12:01 PM
It’s hellish in Australia, and this is just the start of their summer.

It's so hot birds are just falling dead out of the trees. (https://twitter.com/martine_maron/status/1208276950357176320?s=20)

(Warning: dead birds in photos linked above, possibly upsetting to some.)


I see someone in the comments linked to Michael E Mann's explanation as to why just a one degree increase makes such a difference.

https://twitter.com/michaelemann/status/1207539340982636544?s=21

It’s worth noting that 1.5 deg C is locked in and unavoidable now. Also, it’s irreversible. All we can do now is damage control - stop it getting any worse/hotter with immediate action re ending use of fossil fuels.  Not burning down the world’s carbon sinks would also help.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 23 December, 2019, 10:34:19 AM
An increasing demand for calories:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-50856049

Versus a significant yearly reduction in calories to the tune of 35 million calories per year (which would feed about 50 million people) due to man-made climate change:

https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-affecting-crop-yields-and-reducing-global-food-supplies-118897

...equals famine, mass migration, war, and death.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: JayzusB.Christ 23 December, 2019, 10:36:25 AM
An increasing demand for calories:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-50856049

Versus a significant yearly reduction in calories to the tune of 35 million calories per year (which would feed about 50 million people) due to man-made climate change:

https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-affecting-crop-yields-and-reducing-global-food-supplies-118897

...equals famine, mass migration, war, and death.

Fuck.  Grim reading there.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 24 December, 2019, 07:03:54 AM
On the same subject, here’s an article from earlier this year about how the climate crisis is exacerbating movement from South to North America.

“My children have gone to bed hungry for the past three years. Our crops failed and the coffee farms have cut wages to $4 a day,”

“I have to find a way to travel north, or else my children will suffer even more.”

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/jul/29/guatemala-climate-crisis-migration-drought-famine
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 27 December, 2019, 10:56:31 AM
Fucking hell, this is chilling. The human race is determined to hasten it’s own end, isn’t it? And take as many with it as possible.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/01/20000-feet-under-the-sea/603040/
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 27 December, 2019, 11:03:01 AM
Christ that's just appalling. Gold and diamonds again, what is this, 1750? 1870? Fully expect to be reading Tweets in a few years about how we've brought democracy and the rule of law to the uncivilised seabed.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 27 December, 2019, 11:48:23 AM
Not just gold and diamonds, but the very materials we need to build EVs to replace fossil fuel burning vehicles.  Talk about a double-edged sword! 

Maybe we need to reconsider use of motor vehicles for anything other than transporting absolute essentials.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 27 December, 2019, 11:52:19 AM
Not just gold and diamonds, but the very materials we need to build EVs to replace fossil fuel burning vehicles.

I know, I was just drawing parallels with previous episodes of catastrophic pillage.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 27 December, 2019, 12:03:42 PM

Really interesting article, thanks.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IAMTHESYSTEM 27 December, 2019, 02:46:50 PM

Really interesting article, thanks.

Yes, have to agree, that was both chilling and rather grim in its predictions about asset stripping the seabed.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 27 December, 2019, 05:40:53 PM
Here’s some good news for a change.

Nuclear has sometimes been touted as a means to wean us off fossil fuels. However, it appears to have proven far more expensive and time consuming to build, and then run, a nuclear power plant compared to energy solutions provided by renewables.

Switzerland decided some time ago to start moving away from nuclear, particularly after Fukushima. Here’s their first giant leap in that direction.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-swiss-nuclearpower-idUKKBN1YO19J
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Enigmatic Dr X 27 December, 2019, 10:59:46 PM
I wish I hadn't started this thread. I am I glad I did. It's like the book The Road, only without the comfort of fiction.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 28 December, 2019, 02:38:02 AM
It's like the book The Road, only without the comfort of fiction.

It’s the prequel.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 29 December, 2019, 01:16:06 AM
Some more good news. The fallacies thrown around by climate change denialism and sources of fake news is being turned into a fun mobile game called ‘Cranky Uncle’. It’s by John Cook, the scientist being the Denial 101 course I quoted several times in this thread. It’s still in development, and you can donate to crowd fund it (see link).

As a Xmas present to myself I’ve gone for the ‘cameo’ option, as an orangutan called Dave.  :D

https://advancement.gmu.edu/s/1564/GID2/16/interior-1col.aspx?sid=1564&gid=2&pgid=4854
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 29 December, 2019, 09:44:19 AM
Some news from folk trying to make a difference in the UK.

Wildlife Rebellion is a new project from Chris Packham & Megan McCubbin. In the new year they’ll be sharing initiatives to conserve our wildlife, and do our bit to protect the biodiversity in our immediate vicinity.

More on it here:

https://m.facebook.com/WildlifeRebellion/
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 30 December, 2019, 05:14:30 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/bxh9kql.jpg)

“Climate change on track to cause major insect wipeout, scientists warn”

(Old article, but relevant)

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/may/17/climate-change-on-track-to-cause-major-insect-wipeout-scientists-warn
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: JayzusB.Christ 30 December, 2019, 08:47:38 PM
Keep them coming by all means, Shaolin. 
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Proudhuff 30 December, 2019, 08:52:57 PM
Seconded,!
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 31 December, 2019, 01:28:06 AM
Another slightly older article, but quite a thorough discussion on our chances as a civilisation:

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190218-are-we-on-the-road-to-civilisation-collapse?ocid=ww.social.link.twitter
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: sheridan 31 December, 2019, 10:44:22 AM
...and for those who complain that it's called 'climate change' instead of 'global warming' these days - things like this are the reason why the terminology has been udpated: record low temperatures in India (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-50953950)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 31 December, 2019, 01:25:32 PM
Meanwhile, Australians literally faced down Armageddon - fleeing to beaches under blood red skies, their towns burning up, ash falling everywhere, a choking smog...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-50952253
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: JayzusB.Christ 31 December, 2019, 01:53:30 PM
Meanwhile, Australians literally faced down Armageddon - fleeing to beaches under blood red skies, their towns burning up, ash falling everywhere, a choking smog...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-50952253

It's happening in front of our eyes. And still they deny it.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 01 January, 2020, 10:50:23 PM
Fleeing to the beaches and staring Armageddon in the face.

https://twitter.com/ek_nicholls/status/1212169693005414400?s=21

Fuck me, it must be terrifying. Their summer has just started!
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 01 January, 2020, 11:39:39 PM
Some good news finally - the U.K. generated more energy from renewables than fossil fuels in 2019!

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/01/zero-carbon-energy-outstrips-fossil-fuels-in-britain-across-2019
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 02 January, 2020, 12:04:49 AM
I can’t remember if I posted this previously?

This excerpt from the Extinction Rebellion book ‘This Is Not a Drill’ is an insight into maybe why all the money is being funnelled away from us to make the richest 1% in the world even richer.



(https://i.imgur.com/i3j2bKo.jpg)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 02 January, 2020, 12:21:32 AM
I can’t remember if I posted this previously?

This excerpt from the Extinction Rebellion book ‘This Is Not a Drill’ is an insight into maybe why all the money is being funnelled away from us to make the richest 1% in the world even richer.


Many thanks to Joe Soap, who has provided a link to the full article:

https://onezero.medium.com/survival-of-the-richest-9ef6cddd0cc1
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 02 January, 2020, 02:37:53 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/EhddCEu.jpg)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Funt Solo 02 January, 2020, 05:58:50 PM
That tweet makes sense (and isn't in poor taste at all) if you can manage the cognitive dissonance that lets you place the Australia fires into the box marked "normal".

You do it like this: it's a hot climate, the fires are seasonal and happen each year. The strength and severity of these fires can be explained away easily as the random flux of nature.

You can also do this: the average temperatures aren't rising at all - the people who measure them have been moving the thermometers closer to the ground. (Motive: not specified.) Clearly this has all the hallmarks of a conspiracy theory, but I heard it from a relative in Oz who strictly speaking isn't insane.

Oddly, whilst I believe the Oz fires are a result of global warming caused by human action: I'm finding it difficult to find comprehensive agreement to that in news media (even where they're going and asking experts) - which I assume is to do with scientists being careful about saying things are definitely so when they don't have all the data yet.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Colin YNWA 02 January, 2020, 07:02:35 PM
There is considerable problems with saying specifc event a is related to climated change. What we'll see I believe from what I've read, listened to and discussed is we'll get specific event a, b, c, d, e over time period x. Where as previously we'd of had specific event f, g, h over time period x+y.

So I doubt, again from the little I know, that we will get much consenus about specific events happening because of global warm alone. What will probably be said is that the chances of specific event a happening are increased by human created global warming and we will see more of these specific events in a shorter time frame.

I'd assume Shaolin monkey will have said this here as he seems to know enough but worth repeating just in case... and I'm dipping back out to talk about comics.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 02 January, 2020, 07:33:40 PM

I'd assume Shaolin monkey will have said this here as he seems to know enough but worth repeating just in case... and I'm dipping back out to talk about comics.

Indeed.

Prof. Michael Mann, who is currently studying climate change in Australia,  sums it up nicely here:


“The brown skies I observed in the Blue Mountains this week are a product of human-caused climate change. Take record heat, combine it with unprecedented drought in already dry regions and you get unprecedented bushfires like the ones engulfing the Blue Mountainsand spreading across the continent. It’s not complicated.”

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/02/australia-your-country-is-burning-dangerous-climate-change-is-here-with-you-now
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 02 January, 2020, 07:47:00 PM
Meanwhile, Jakarta is suffering record rainfall and flooding.

This picture is horribly apt:

(https://i.imgur.com/64N4rfI.jpg)

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/02/world/asia/indonesia-jakarta-rain-floods.html



Why does climate change cause high precipitation and flooding? This link should give you an insight:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-what-climate-models-tell-us-about-future-rainfall
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 02 January, 2020, 08:23:05 PM
What will probably be said is that the chances of specific event a happening are increased by human created global warming and we will see more of these specific events in a shorter time frame.

It’s worth adding that an extreme weather events not only becomes likely to happen more frequently, but also with greater intensity. And other factors come in to play.

If you recall Hurricane Dorian in the Bahamas, there were a lot of things at play there which made it so devastating. First up, it was an enormous hurricane due to the energy from warmer water. Secondly, it moved really slowly, which was linked to a sluggish jet stream.

If you recall, the jet stream usually moves around the northern hemisphere really quickly, pushed by warmth rising from the tropics, and cool air from the Arctic. It is normally quite wavy too. This means weather fronts usually are pushed over land reasonably quickly, so we might have rain for a few days and then some sunny spells, then wind, and so on.

However, because the Arctic is warming so quickly compared to the rest of the planet the air coming down is warmer. This is making the jet stream sluggish, and creating wider waves or loops of either warm
or cold weather, and corresponding areas of pressure. For example, recently one half of the US suffered very cold weather, while the other half experienced warmer weather for the time of year, almost as if the continent had been slashed in half vertically. And it was fairly static for a long time. This is because of one of those long sluggish waves we are now seeing of the jet stream.

Coming back to Dorian, not only did you have a higher likelihood of that storm turning up, it was also made more powerful by warmer water temperature, AND it was caught in one of those long lazy loops of the jet stream. This meant it hovered over the Bahamas for DAYS (where normally a hurricane would move through an area quickly) resulting in the absolute devastation we all saw.

So, coming back to Colin’s post - agreed - absolutely climate change increases the likelihood of a weather event, but it will also increase the intensity, and when combined with other climate-change related behavioural changes in our atmosphere, it adds up to a whole world of pain which can more often than not be pinned on the way humans are modifying the gaseous make-up of our atmosphere.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 02 January, 2020, 09:18:53 PM
Ok, one more bit of bad news - bird populations affected worldwide, and UK no different.

However, the RSPB are trying to record the UK numbers, with a view to halting the decline somehow, and this is where you could help. In fact, this could be a fun thing for your whole family to get involved in:

The Big Garden Birdwatch!!!

https://www.rspb.org.uk/get-involved/activities/birdwatch/
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Tjm86 02 January, 2020, 09:34:15 PM
I think the biggest concern with all this is that we have most likely passed the point at which individual minor changes are sufficient.  The hand wringing and mithering of politicians and business leaders quite probably means that quite radical changes are going to be needed by all of us.  This is likely to range from changes to travel habits / holidays all the way through to what and how we feed ourselves.

I know that this is probably going to sound insane but I hope that someone with the guts to make those changes comes along soon.  The consequences of inaction are already starting to stack up and will soon reach the point where even the likes of Trump cannot deny it any longer ...
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 03 January, 2020, 01:23:24 AM
I think the biggest concern with all this is that we have most likely passed the point at which individual minor changes are sufficient.  The hand wringing and mithering of politicians and business leaders quite probably means that quite radical changes are going to be needed by all of us.  This is likely to range from changes to travel habits / holidays all the way through to what and how we feed ourselves.

This is definitely the case, and to be fair probably has been the case for about 40 years or more. Here’s a link that shows who the biggest polluters are, and they aren’t individuals:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/09/revealed-20-firms-third-carbon-emissions


However, action is still needed from all sides. Everyone has a part to play in this, no matter how small the contribution may seem. Also, individual action becomes community action becomes societal action becomes political action. Consumers have power to influence also.


I know that this is probably going to sound insane but I hope that someone with the guts to make those changes comes along soon.  The consequences of inaction are already starting to stack up and will soon reach the point where even the likes of Trump cannot deny it any longer ...

Yep, we definitely need someone. Could it be you? After all, a revolution starts with one person. Maybe it would be best if we didn’t hang around waiting for someone, but created the change ourselves. For example, have you considered joining Extinction Rebellion, a local sustainability group, or broached the subject with your MP?
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 03 January, 2020, 01:47:07 AM

Maybe it would be best if we didn’t hang around waiting for someone, but created the change ourselves.


^This. Always and primarily this.^

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Tjm86 03 January, 2020, 09:48:30 AM
Maybe it would be best if we didn’t hang around waiting for someone, but created the change ourselves. For example, have you considered joining Extinction Rebellion, a local sustainability group, or broached the subject with your MP?

Fair point on the MP front.  That said, she is a new 'wet behind the ears' nipper from up the valley so ... actually, you know, now is probably the best time to get on at that.

On the rest, don't get me wrong, I'm not talking about ignoring personal choices and actions.  I'm all about the most sensible and environmentally appropriate choices that we can make under the circumstances.  It may well be that it is a drop in the ocean but an ocean is made up of millions of drops ...

My point is that I worry that we are fast approaching the point at which it is going to be enough.  My other concern is that with it being such a big issue we are now starting to see abuses (recycling material dumped in far-east landfill, carbon offset schemes and so on).  You are right in that we need to be more assertive on the individual front.  Is it going to be enough though?
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: sheridan 03 January, 2020, 11:32:47 AM
Ok, one more bit of bad news - bird populations affected worldwide, and UK no different.

However, the RSPB are trying to record the UK numbers, with a view to halting the decline somehow, and this is where you could help. In fact, this could be a fun thing for your whole family to get involved in:

The Big Garden Birdwatch!!!

https://www.rspb.org.uk/get-involved/activities/birdwatch/ (https://www.rspb.org.uk/get-involved/activities/birdwatch/)


I did that last year - sit next to a window with a view of the garden for an hour with a cup of coffee and record whatever wildlife lands in the garden (thinking back I may have done part of it wrong last year - I'm sure I counted something flying over).
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: sheridan 03 January, 2020, 11:38:47 AM
The consequences of inaction are already starting to stack up and will soon reach the point where even the likes of Trump cannot deny it any longer ...


I'm sure you overestimate the likes of Trump.  I'd bet you could find people who don't believe the extinction of dodos, passenger pigeons and near extinction of the plains buffalo had anything to do with colonists over-killing*






* or whatever it's called when humans kill wild animals for food - farming kind of suggests that there's some sort of tending to the animals first, hunting suggests there's some sort of skill involved in tracking the animal first...
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 03 January, 2020, 08:50:47 PM
Here a breakdown of greenhouse gas sources, courtesy of John Foley at Drawdown.org:


(https://i.imgur.com/s1RCVCa.jpg)


Any surprises for anyone there?
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Dandontdare 04 January, 2020, 02:01:56 AM
I know I could google it but I feel like the kid in class who would immediately ask - what the heck's a flaring fugitive?
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 04 January, 2020, 10:22:47 AM

Judge Fire, obvs.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: sheridan 04 January, 2020, 10:37:59 AM
I know I could google it but I feel like the kid in class who would immediately ask - what the heck's a flaring fugitive?

"You know what a fugitive emission (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fugitive_emission)* is?"
"Of course!"
"Same thing."
"I've never seen a fugitive emission.                  But I understand what you mean."



* insert joke here
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Funt Solo 04 January, 2020, 07:04:49 PM
I know I could google it but I feel like the kid in class who would immediately ask - what the heck's a flaring fugitive?

Well, you know when you try to let out a quiet fart, but it makes a noise and everyone hears? That's a fugitive (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fugitive_emission). If you surreptitiously light it, it's the (almost impossible to pull off, or lesser-spotted) flaring fugitive.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 04 January, 2020, 07:15:45 PM

Should be in the Over Your Head thread, but I've just realised what 'lesser-spotted' means - I always thought it meant having fewer spots of colour than other similar animals.

D'oh!

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: M.I.K. 04 January, 2020, 07:39:20 PM

Should be in the Over Your Head thread, but I've just realised what 'lesser-spotted' means - I always thought it meant having fewer spots of colour than other similar animals.

D'oh!

You were almost right the first time. There's a 'lesser spotted' woodpecker, (apparently the original lesser spotted beasty), and a 'great spotted' woodpecker. The main difference between the two is the size.

Lesser spotted has been used to mean 'less frequently seen' but that definition started off as a pun.

(I think we need a "Things That You Thought Went Over Your Head But Actually Didn't" thread.)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 04 January, 2020, 08:54:33 PM

I'm so confused... :D

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: sheridan 05 January, 2020, 09:26:13 AM
You say 'less spotted' and 'greater spotted' and I think 'trhill-suckers'.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Funt Solo 06 January, 2020, 12:49:17 AM
(https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/55d9a2ebe4b090d1642480e9/1458321528308-0G1IFBDTA22116ABKFHW/ke17ZwdGBToddI8pDm48kMzd8Ds_p5dwHwG3StZLPkZ7gQa3H78H3Y0txjaiv_0fDoOvxcdMmMKkDsyUqMSsMWxHk725yiiHCCLfrh8O1z5QPOohDIaIeljMHgDF5CVlOqpeNLcJ80NK65_fV7S1URQ1ClRzzmSMdLB3UW4XWBB8FwuOI40vysJ2PjLQgBt-t_E4_mC25allKlv8imDARw/image-asset.jpeg)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Hawkmumbler 06 January, 2020, 04:51:27 PM
I would like to file the Taxonomic popular name of LESSER SPOTTED DICK please.

Never saw it on the lunch menu at school, must be a cryptid.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Funt Solo 06 January, 2020, 10:26:44 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/J7udhb6.png)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 06 January, 2020, 10:35:55 PM
Epic thread on Twitter from Prof. Katharine Hayhoe which demystifies all the numbers floating around in the media about climate change.

Well worth a read-through:

https://twitter.com/khayhoe/status/1104833329587806210?s=21
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 07 January, 2020, 12:04:39 AM
“But the climate has always changed!”

Here’s a nifty graph that shows average temperature millions, then thousands, of years gone by, where it was that climate stabilised allowing humans to thrive, then that it is very suddenly getting way hotter, and finally where that temp gauge might end up shortly!


(https://i.imgur.com/0Wxwdb5.jpg)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 07 January, 2020, 07:47:35 AM
A twenty minute radio programme from
The BBC regarding the Australian bushfires, including an interview with Prof. Michael Mann, who is currently out there:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p07zns45
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 07 January, 2020, 02:53:54 PM
In case you missed this:

(https://i.imgur.com/K2UFOH1.jpg)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: sheridan 07 January, 2020, 03:16:09 PM
In case you missed this:

(https://i.imgur.com/K2UFOH1.jpg)


Mike Smith's gone downhill since his radio one DJ days...
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: sheridan 07 January, 2020, 03:17:43 PM
Mike Smith's gone downhill since his radio one DJ days...

Having written that a distant bell rang - the DJ died in 2014 - oops...
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 10 January, 2020, 10:32:15 AM
Murdoch employee blows the whistle on dangerous misinformation re the climate:

https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/dangerous-misinformation-news-corp-employee-s-fire-coverage-email-20200110-p53qel.html

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 10 January, 2020, 06:44:19 PM
So it seems I’m a member of a terrorist organisation. Go figure.

I guess that’s a right-wing totalitarian regime for you!

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jan/10/xr-extinction-rebellion-listed-extremist-ideology-police-prevent-scheme-guidance

(https://i.imgur.com/j4zalHE.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/cvoI8m9.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/peAl0F8.png)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Tjm86 10 January, 2020, 06:56:09 PM
That isn't exactly a revelation here.  Right from the off the 'Prevent' strategy had these hallmarks.  Describing it as 'dubious' is the most charitable representation.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Greg M. 10 January, 2020, 07:06:22 PM

I guess that’s a right-wing totalitarian regime for you!

I have no love for the current incarnation of the UK government, but totalitarian regimes don't tend to admit they've made a mistake and recall their guidance as has happened here. We might be on the way, but we're not there yet.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 10 January, 2020, 07:17:19 PM

I guess that’s a right-wing totalitarian regime for you!

I have no love for the current incarnation of the UK government, but totalitarian regimes don't tend to admit they've made a mistake and recall their guidance as has happened here. We might be on the way, but we're not there yet.

True and true. I guess being sardonic doesn’t translate well in text.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Greg M. 10 January, 2020, 07:23:10 PM
Don't get me wrong, the potential criminalisation of dissent is one of the most worrying things imaginable.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Funt Solo 10 January, 2020, 07:26:11 PM
I think China has the right idea: rather than quash dissent, they simply move everyone into re-education centers, from which they (sometimes) return, entirely cured of their wrong thinking and now happy, well-adjusted citizens (not paralyzed with fear or traumatized or even filled with tamped-down rage at the injustice).

Also, climate change can be avoided by simply ignoring it.

[/sarcasm]
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Dandontdare 10 January, 2020, 09:41:34 PM
So it seems I’m a member of a terrorist organisation.

I don't negotiate with terrorists! [ignore this user]
 :lol:

None of this is new apart from the tech - in the 80s my mate's house (attached to the village primary school of which his mum was the head) was a 'designated rest stop' when the queen visited the village - in other words, if she got the squits mid-walkabout, they'd rush her to his bathroom - they're very thorough)
The first he knew about it (age 16) was when two guys in suits came to his house to check it over and interview everyone who lived there -they freaked him out because they knew that he was a member of CND and Labour Students and specific demos he'd been on. And that's when they used paper files, carbon copies and proper telephones.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 11 January, 2020, 03:18:33 PM
Climate models prove to be painfully accurate:

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2943/study-confirms-climate-models-are-getting-future-warming-projections-right/
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Tjm86 12 January, 2020, 08:41:13 AM
So it seems I’m a member of a terrorist organisation. Go figure.


So it seems that the police have put this down to an "error of judgement" in listing XR as a 'radical organisation' ...

 :o
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 12 January, 2020, 12:36:27 PM
A rather chilling thread on Twitter showing how climate change affected global food supplies in 2019.




https://twitter.com/jimbair62221006/status/1211773514216140801?s=21
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 12 January, 2020, 05:01:26 PM
Not especially comprehensive either. There’s a mention of Spain soil erosion. But also Murcia – a haven for growing – has now suffered three “once in a lifetime” floods over the past few years, and the Mar Menor is over 50% sterile. The suggestion is that without massive and immediate action, the percentage will rapidly rise.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 12 January, 2020, 09:28:09 PM
What was the CO2 level PPM at your birth?

Go here to find out:

https://sealevel.info/co2.html

(https://i.imgur.com/ERkAQ8B.jpg)

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 13 January, 2020, 08:26:50 AM
“ The year 2019 was the hottest ever recorded in Europe, the European Union’s climate monitor said in its round-up of the hottest decade in history.

Data released by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) showed that worldwide temperatures were just 0.04 degrees Celsius lower than 2016, when temperatures were boosted 0.12 degrees Celsius by a once-in-a-century El Nino natural weather event.

The five last years have been the hottest on record, and the period of 2010-2019 was the hottest decade since records began, C3S said.

Globally temperatures in 2019 were 0.6 Celsius warmer than the 1981-2010 average. Earth’s temperature over the last five years was 1.1C-1.2C warmer than pre-industrial times. “
- AFP/Euractiv, Jan 9, 2020

https://www.euractiv.com/section/climate-environment/news/last-year-was-europes-hottest-ever-eu-data-shows/

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: sheridan 13 January, 2020, 11:17:47 AM
What was the CO2 level PPM at your birth?

Go here to find out:

https://sealevel.info/co2.html

(https://i.imgur.com/ERkAQ8B.jpg)


Interesting - it stagnated and even went down during the second world war but started rising the moment it was over - I'd have thought an industrial war would create more CO2 but looks like war is good for the environment...
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 13 January, 2020, 12:23:02 PM

Maybe less data taken during the war due to general widespread disruption?

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 13 January, 2020, 12:35:11 PM
Here's a theory.

Overall, 75 million people died as a direct result of WWII, predominantly from industrialised nations. Given that each person has a significant CO2 stamp, taking 75 million of them away over a 5 year period is bound to have some kind of impact on overall CO2 emissions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties


I wonder if there was a similar dip around the time of the bubonic plague?

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 13 January, 2020, 12:42:33 PM
Well, whaddaya know - I might have been on to something there!!!

From:
'PRE-INDUSTRIAL DEPOPULATION, ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE, AND GLOBAL CLIMATE
by WILLIAM F. RUDDIMAN & ANN G. CARMICHAEL'

Nevertheless, large-scale depopulation episodes during the historical era do appear to correlate with drops in atmospheric CO2 levels and decreases in northern hemisphere temperature (Figs. 1, 2). Given the inability of volcanic eruptions and changes in solar irradiance to account for CO2 drops as large as 8 ppm without violating hemispheric and global temperature constraints, pandemics and depopulation episodes are a potential casual link.

http://www.casinapioiv.va/content/dam/accademia/pdf/sv106/sv106-ruddiman.pdf



: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 13 January, 2020, 01:09:50 PM
Hundreds of millions on what amounted to starvation rations (or outright stsrvation) no non-essential transport and regular black-outs has to cut down on emissions, even if nobody had died, which as noted they definitely did. Maybe this is how we finally get the Brexiteers on board?
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Tjm86 13 January, 2020, 04:00:29 PM
I'd have thought an industrial war would create more CO2 but looks like war is good for the environment...

Are you saying Edwin Starr was wrong then?
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Jim_Campbell 13 January, 2020, 04:19:19 PM
I'd have thought an industrial war would create more CO2 but looks like war is good for the environment...

Are you saying Edwin Starr was wrong then?

Good God, y'all!
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 13 January, 2020, 06:32:28 PM
I did a shout out last night on Twitter re finding some UK-centric (yet with global subject matter) podcasts about the climate crisis. I’ve had a tremendous response, and I will post links etc below.

However, if you do fancy a listen to any, please start with the very first episode of Outrage and Optimism, where they interview Sir David Attenborough. It is quite something.

I didn’t capture all the recommendations, so here is my original Twitter post/thread, if you want a browse:

https://twitter.com/scowlingmonkey/status/1216470988285784065?s=21


Otherwise:

Outrage and Optimism
@globaloptimism

http://globaloptimism.com/podcast/


Sustainababble - dark humour and climate discussion
@thebabblewagon

http://www.sustainababble.fish/



Mothers of Invention - ex- Irish PM takes on climate change
@MothersInvent

https://www.mothersofinvention.online/




The End of the World Has Already Happened - BBC radio series

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000cl67/episodes/player


Unburnable - a story of people against Arctic oil

https://greenwire.greenpeace.org/nordic/nn/blogs/podcast-unburnable-people-vs-arctic-oil


Explore the Space - climate related episodes

https://www.explorethespaceshow.com/podcast_category/climate-change/


: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Funt Solo 13 January, 2020, 06:57:05 PM
So we're all agreed on a massive cull?
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 13 January, 2020, 10:15:23 PM
So we're all agreed on a massive cull?

Either we do it or climate change does it. Who’s first? And where are the Kleggs when you really need them?
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 15 January, 2020, 07:13:42 PM
Prof. Ed Hawkins from Reading University (he of showyourstripes.info fame) has put together a very effective visual representation of warming from 1850 to 2019.

2019 was a shocker.

https://twitter.com/ed_hawkins/status/1217476536154173440?s=21
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Hawkmumbler 15 January, 2020, 08:46:48 PM
No relation to yours truly, just an FYI....
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 15 January, 2020, 11:18:23 PM
The World Economic Forum Global Risks 2020 report is out and waddaya know - the top five risks based on likelihood and impact are all environmental!

(https://i.imgur.com/M7gwJKC.jpg)

http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risk_Report_2020.pdf
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 16 January, 2020, 01:21:30 AM
Even the rich folk are waking up to the threat now:

“ *Climate threats and accelerated biodiversity loss*

Climate change is striking harder and more rapidly than many expected. The last five years are on track to be the warmest on record, natural disasters are becoming more intense and more frequent, and last year witnessed unprecedented extreme weather throughout the world.

Alarmingly, global temperatures are on track to increase by at least 3°C towards the end of the century—twice what climate experts have warned is the limit to avoid the most severe economic, social and environmental consequences. The near- term impacts of m climate change add up to a planetary emergency that will include loss of life, social and geopolitical tensions and negative economic impacts.


For the first time in the history of the Global Risks Perception Survey, environmental concerns dominate the top long-term risks by likelihood among members of the World Economic Forum’s multistakeholder community; three of the top five risks by impact are also environmental (see Figure I, The Evolving Risks Landscape 2007–2020). “Failure of climate change mitigation and adaption” is the number one risk by impact and number two by likelihood over the next 10 years, according to our survey. Members of the Global Shapers Community—the Forum’s younger constituents—show even more concern, ranking environmental issues as the top risks in both the short and long terms.

The Forum’s multistakeholder network rate “biodiversity loss” as the second most impactful and third most likely risk for the next decade. The current rate of extinction is tens to hundreds of times higher than the average over the past 10 million years—and it is accelerating. Biodiversity loss has critical implications for humanity, from the collapse of food and health systems to the disruption of entire supply chains.”

http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risk_Report_2020.pdf

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Tiplodocus 16 January, 2020, 09:50:08 AM
Yeah, it's certainly getting into the top agenda at our work as opposed to a tacked on afterthought. Long may it continue.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 16 January, 2020, 03:10:16 PM
"When glaciers retreat...pressure lifts and volcanic activity surges."

*Get Ready for More Volcanic Eruptions as the Planet Warms*

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/get-ready-for-more-volcanic-eruptions-as-the-planet-warms/
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Funt Solo 16 January, 2020, 07:12:09 PM
BBC has a strip of dedicated coverage on their front page:

(https://i.imgur.com/T530qDB.png)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 17 January, 2020, 10:18:23 AM

Whilst I agree that the evolving climate plays a part in the Australian bushfires, it is by no means the whole story. For thousands of years the indigenous people of Australia have been managing the problem in ways based on ancient traditional knowledge. (https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-18/indigenous-burning-before-and-after-tathra-bushfire/10258140)

Then we come along, with our modern science and ideas, and trash all that for political convenience and economy. Our governmental mentality imposes systems and practices which simply do not work and, as in the case of this particular tragedy, make things worse. As I've said before, it's basically down to our fundamental misconception that this planet belongs to us when, in reality, we're simply a part of it. If anything, we belong to the planet. We need to wake up to this fact and act accordingly. It's not the climate that's the problem, it's how we manage ourselves.

Government is the ultimate owner - pretending ownership of lands, waters, resources, laws, systems, economies, information, power, rights, money, healthcare, food, water, wildlife, ideas and you. Government policies are based on the idea of ownership, which is a big part (perhaps the biggest part) of every environmental crisis we face from deforestation to dwindling water supplies to extinctions to droughts to floods. All based on the fundamentally flawed idea of planetary ownership.

But keep on voting, keep on giving these psychopathic owners agency because one day they'll wise up and get it right. Don't blame the governmental system, blame the climate. It's all the climate's fault - but that's okay because we own the climate and can bend it to our will. It's easier to do that than blame the way we treat each other and our little blue dot.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Funt Solo 17 January, 2020, 06:02:22 PM
It's human-induced climate change that's the problem (see pages and pages of evidence), so (yes), humans can do something to alleviate the issues. But only if we get organized (governance). Gaia is not going to save us.

Unfortunately, neither are traditional aboriginal cold burn practices. Those are still done in some places, but not all terrain is suited. There is a problem where traditional practices have been banned, and so in those areas the fire danger is worse than it could be. But that's a sideshow compared to the overall warming of the planet, which takes us back to my first paragraph.

I wonder about your suggested way forward: it seems to be that we should stop voting, and then everything will miraculously be fine. I don't see how you've reached that conclusion, because it doesn't seem to follow any kind of logical sequence of thought. Sitting on our hands won't reduce global temperatures.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 17 January, 2020, 07:01:55 PM
The Australian fires will have been started a whole bunch of ways - lightning strikes, careless disposal of cigarette butts, electrical shorts, and even arson (though police and firefighters say reports of arson have been massively exaggerated). Of course land management will feature in there somewhere.

But the fires are amongst the worst ever because the land has become more arid this decade, the droughts more prolonged, and the vegetation made much more crisp and ripe for burning than usual. And THAT is because of man-made climate change.

You can see the Australian temperatures going up and up and up over the last century on Prof. Ed Hawkins’ excellent showyourstripes.info website:

(https://i.imgur.com/aggfNpH.jpg)

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 17 January, 2020, 07:06:50 PM
On a more positive note, it is nice to see something hopeful coming out about climate change!

Limited showings around the UK this weekend, and out on DVD in March:

https://youtu.be/p-rTQ443akE
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 17 January, 2020, 07:46:33 PM

No, Funt, it's not about not voting - that's just a means to an end. It's about stripping government of its power to do deliberate harm by re-naming things (for example, calling theft taxation and calling legislation law), propagating the idea of ownership, monopolising essentials and using force to compel compliance.

Australia needs help right now (and it's not the only place), but what's the most powerful government in the world concentrating on? Trying to engineer a war with Iran. Very helpful.

Rule by a "living god" built the pyramids, but we moved on from that to rule by "the will of god," which built cities. Then we moved on to rule by "the will of the people" (although we're not quite sure which people), which built us a global infrastructure. We must move on again because the current system is no longer fit for purpose.

As The Man said, we cannot solve problems using the same thinking that created them.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 17 January, 2020, 08:23:42 PM
Interesting that Sharkey’s comment pops up as this ruling is released.

Kids lose landmark case against US for breaching constitutional rights by not imposing strict emissions laws, and thereby threatening their future life and happiness.

HOWEVER, page 33 onwards -  note judges remarks re CO2 and warning:

“STATON, District Judge, dissenting:

In these proceedings, the government accepts as fact that the United States has reached a tipping point crying out for a concerted response—yet presses ahead toward calamity. It is as if an asteroid were barreling toward Earth and the government decided to shut down our only defenses.

Seeking to quash this suit, the government bluntly insists that it has the absolute and unreviewable power to destroy the Nation.

My colleagues throw up their hands, concluding that this case presents nothing fit for the Judiciary. On a fundamental point, we agree: No case can singlehandedly prevent the catastrophic effects of climate change predicted by the government and scientists. But a federal court need not manage all of the delicate foreign relations and regulatory minutiae implicated by climate change to offer real relief, and the mere fact that this suit cannot alone halt climate change does not mean that it presents no claim suitable for judicial resolution.
Plaintiffs bring suit to enforce the most basic structural principle embedded in our system of ordered liberty: that the Constitution does not condone the Nation’s willful destruction. So viewed, plaintiffs’ claims adhere to a judicially administrable standard. And considering plaintiffs seek no less than to forestall the Nation’s demise, even a partial and temporary reprieve would constitute meaningful redress. Such relief, much like the desegregation orders and statewid e prison injunctions the Supreme Court has sanctioned, would vindicate plaintiffs’ constitutional rights without exceeding the Judiciary’s province. For these reasons, I respectfully dissent.

As the majority recognizes, and the government does not contest, carbon dioxide (“CO2”) and other greenhouse gas (“GHG”) emissions created by burning fossil fuels are devastating the planet. Maj. Op. at 14–15. According to one of plaintiffs’ experts, the inevitable result, absent immediate action, is “an inhospitable future . . . marked by rising seas, coastal city functionality loss, mass migrations, resource wars, food shortages, heat waves, mega-storms, soil depletion and desiccation, freshwater shortage, public health system collapse, and the extinction of increasing numbers of species.” Even government scientists2 project that, given current warming trends, sea levels will rise two feet by 2050, nearly four feet by 2070, over eight feet by 2100, 18 feet by 2150, and over 31 feet by 2200. To put that in perspective, a three-foot sea level rise will make two million American homes uninhabitable; a rise of approximately 20 feet will result in the total loss of Miami, New Orleans, and other coastal cities. So, as described by plaintiffs’ experts, the injuries experienced by plaintiffs are the first small wave in an oncoming tsunami—now visible on the horizon of the not-so-distant future—that will destroy the United States as we currently know it.

What sets this harm apart from all others is not just its magnitude, but its irreversibility. The devastation might look and feel somewhat different if future generations could simply pick up the pieces and restore the Nation. But plaintiffs’ experts speak of a certain level of global warming as “locking in” this catastrophic damage. Put more starkly by plaintiffs’ expert, Dr. Harold R. Wanless, “[a]tmospheric warming will continue for some 30 years after we stop putting more greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere. But that warmed atmosphere will continue warming the ocean for centuries, and the accumulating heat in the oceans will persist for millennia” (emphasis added). Indeed, another of plaintiffs’ experts echoes, “[t]he fact that GHGs dissipate very slowly from the atmosphere . . . and that the costs of taking CO2 out of the atmosphere through non-biological carbon capture and storage are very high means that the consequences of GHG emissions should be viewed as effectively irreversible” (emphasis added). In other words, “[g]iven the self-reinforcing nature of climate change,” the tipping point may well have arrived, and we may be rapidly approaching the point of no return.

Despite countless studies over the last half century warning of the catastrophic consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, many of which the government conducted, the government not only failed to act but also “affirmatively promote[d] fossil fuel use in a host of ways.” Maj. Op. at 15. According to plaintiffs’ evidence, our nation is crumbling—at our government’s own hand—into a wasteland. In short, the government has directly facilitated an existential crisis to the country’s perpetuity.”

http://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2020/01/17/18-36082.pdf
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Funt Solo 17 January, 2020, 09:00:05 PM
But keep on voting...

No, Funt, it's not about not voting...

I just can't have a straight discussion with you if you do that circular bullshit thing on me. You brought up voting in the first place. I responded about what you said. Now you're saying what you said isn't relevant.

If what you say isn't relevant, then why are you saying it?
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Dandontdare 17 January, 2020, 10:07:18 PM
But keep on voting...

No, Funt, it's not about not voting...

I just can't have a straight discussion with you if you do that circular bullshit thing on me. You brought up voting in the first place. I responded about what you said. Now you're saying what you said isn't relevant.

If what you say isn't relevant, then why are you saying it?

welcome to the world of the circular shark debate
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Funt Solo 17 January, 2020, 10:17:29 PM
Sorry: didn't mean to derail the thread. [Backing away slowly...]
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 17 January, 2020, 10:40:48 PM

Ah, Funt - so when I continued, "...keep on giving these psychopathic owners agency because one day they'll wise up and get it right..." it didn't tip you off that, "keep on voting..." was sarcasm?

I don't vote.

You vote if you want to.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: JayzusB.Christ 17 January, 2020, 10:42:01 PM
You appear to have forgotten your own advice, Funt...

For correct navigation of this thread, follow this handy-dandy guide:

A. Someone says something about politics.
B. Someone (with a prominent fin) will say the problem is statism.
C. If you want to have a circular argument about statism, respond to B. Otherwise, respond to A.

Sorry, Shark. Like I've said before, i like you a lot but I already know your worldview in detail, and sometimes just want to join a discussion about important current affairs without it becoming all about your personal utopia yet again.  So I'm not biting any more (no pun intended).
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 17 January, 2020, 10:48:56 PM

How is exploring what I see as a major problem promoting a Utopia? I don't believe in Utopia, there's no such animal, but there are other things we can do, things we can change to improve our world.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Dandontdare 17 January, 2020, 11:57:05 PM

How is exploring what I see as a major problem promoting a Utopia? I don't believe in Utopia, there's no such animal, but there are other things we can do, things we can change to improve our world.

but you really do - all your ideas about how we can live without governments fly in the face of thousands of years of human nature. Nothing you say is wrong in principle, but it's a utopian fantasy that bears no relation to current human behaviour, society or politics
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 18 January, 2020, 12:07:31 AM

I beg to differ but, as you suggest, not on this thread.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 18 January, 2020, 12:17:59 PM
Yep. Please can we draw a line now and let this thread continue as it was? Thanks.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 18 January, 2020, 08:36:30 PM
Wow, won’t it be great for the U.K. to be a part of this?

Oh, wait...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-14/europe-pitches-state-aid-revamp-in-1-trillion-green-deal-plan
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 20 January, 2020, 06:21:55 PM
Yowsers, this is a bold statement from the UN!

“It is unlawful for governments to return people to countries where their lives might be threatened by the climate crisis, a landmark ruling by the United Nations human rights committee has found.

The judgment – which is the first of its kind – represents a legal “tipping point” and a moment that “opens the doorway” to future protection claims for people whose lives and wellbeing have been threatened due to global heating, experts say.

Tens of millions of people are expected to be displaced by global heating in the next decade.”

-  Kate Lyons, The Pacific Project, Guardian, Jan 20, 2020

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/20/climate-refugees-cant-be-returned-home-says-landmark-un-human-rights-ruling
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 21 January, 2020, 03:12:15 PM
If you were wondering how to get your company involved in dealing with the climate crisis, maybe this is for you:


https://exponentialroadmap.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/1.5C-business-playbook-1.0_digital-spread.pdf
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: JayzusB.Christ 23 January, 2020, 05:11:01 PM
I've decided to put (at least a bit) of my money where my mouth is, and start a weekly donation to a charity that tackles green issues. I have no idea which one though. Has anyone got a suggestion? Thanks
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 23 January, 2020, 05:20:54 PM

Sharky's Hot Air Co Ltd, obvs... ;)

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Funt Solo 23 January, 2020, 07:12:05 PM
(https://pbfcomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/PBF-The_Talk.png)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 23 January, 2020, 09:01:51 PM

Cheers for that Funt. Totally appeals to the nihilistic side of my sense of humour.


I've decided to put (at least a bit) of my money where my mouth is, and start a weekly donation to a charity that tackles green issues. I have no idea which one though. Has anyone got a suggestion? Thanks

That depends. What are you interested in supporting? Planting trees? Reducing plastic waste? Protecting bees? Radical transformation of the ability of a few to manipulate the political landscape, thus ending the stranglehold the fossil fuel industry has on the health of the world?

Give us your thoughts on what you’d like to support and I’ll throw you some links.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Tiplodocus 23 January, 2020, 11:21:33 PM
I've decided to put (at least a bit) of my money where my mouth is, and start a weekly donation to a charity that tackles green issues. I have no idea which one though. Has anyone got a suggestion? Thanks

Go vegan?

Just kidding. Nobody ever goes for that.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: JayzusB.Christ 24 January, 2020, 12:54:21 AM

Cheers for that Funt. Totally appeals to the nihilistic side of my sense of humour.


I've decided to put (at least a bit) of my money where my mouth is, and start a weekly donation to a charity that tackles green issues. I have no idea which one though. Has anyone got a suggestion? Thanks

That depends. What are you interested in supporting? Planting trees? Reducing plastic waste? Protecting bees? Radical transformation of the ability of a few to manipulate the political landscape, thus ending the stranglehold the fossil fuel industry has on the health of the world?

Give us your thoughts on what you’d like to support and I’ll throw you some links.

Something to help fight global warming, really, and I know it can only ever be a Canute-like anti-sea gesture but I'd prefer to be doing something.


Sharky's Hot Air Co Ltd, obvs... ;)



 :D  Well played, sir.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 24 January, 2020, 03:04:55 PM
Ok, well, you can go straight to something that will remove CO2 from the air - trees:

Rainforest Coalition

The Coalition for Rainforest Nations (CfRN or the ‘Coalition) assists tropical governments, communities and peoples responsibly manage their rainforests. Healthy rainforests protect against a changing climate, generate needed biodiversity and provide safe habitats.

Launched by Coalition members in 2005,  the United Nation’s REDD+ Mechanism, designed to incentivize conservation and contribute to the battle against climate change, now includes around 90% of the world’s remaining rainforests. A first in human history!

https://www.rainforestcoalition.org/donations/



And/or a group that promotes education, activism, and support for the many and varied organisations out there backing up the alarm call of the scientists:

Climate Emergency Fund

The Climate Emergency Fund recognizes that there are activists committing their lives to addressing the climate emergency. These individuals and groups need our support as they carry out legal, nonviolent activities to demand that our leaders take action to ban ecologically destructive practices and save as much life as possible. These activists are demanding our protection from the existential threat facing our species. We have a collective responsibility to support them and join them.

https://climateemergencyfund.org/


Do either of those appeal?
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: JayzusB.Christ 24 January, 2020, 03:24:38 PM
Definitely! I'll think about it then choose one, or possibly both.  Thanks a million
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Funt Solo 24 January, 2020, 03:46:19 PM
Another from the Perry Bible Fellowship:

(https://pbfcomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/PBF300-Dick.png)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 25 January, 2020, 02:50:12 PM
Ouch. Another cutting series of panels. 😬


This is a surprisingly good article from BBC Future re earning hope about climate change via positive action.

It includes commentary from such visionaries and communicators as Prof. Katharine Hayhoe, Greta Thunberg,  essayist Mary Heglar and Dr Kate Marvel - a recommended read!

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200109-is-it-wrong-to-be-hopeful-about-climate-change
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 25 January, 2020, 03:13:34 PM
Extracting the positives from the ongoing destruction of our world, I had somehow missed the fact that PBF was up and running again!  As a result I've just spent a fantastic half-hour back in Gurewitch's peerless company.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Tiplodocus 25 January, 2020, 05:54:46 PM
Me too.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 26 January, 2020, 09:43:48 AM
Yep, good shout! 👍

I’ve always loved PBF - have one of the original GNs kicking about somewhere.

On a less positive note, here’s a heads up re not-so-oft noted side-effect of climate change - pests.

Africa is being hit hard by climate change. Here’s the latest it has to contend with - locusts.

Pests like this are on the increase around the world, as changes to climate often provide better breeding conditions.

China is also dealing with a pest called Armyworm - Google it. It hasn’t been widely reported, but it has caused crop failure and food stress in many areas, and is another example of an increase driven by changing climate.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2020/jan/24/billions-of-locusts-swarm-through-kenya-in-pictures
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 26 January, 2020, 12:42:44 PM
Great news from my home country 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿!

100% renewable energy by the end of the year!! 😃

It makes me want to break out in song!

🥁🎼🎵🎵🎶
Land o' the high endeavour
Land o' the shining river
land o' my heart forever
Scotland the brave🎶🎵

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/07/scotland-wind-energy-new-record-putting-country-on-track-for-100-renewable-electricity-in-2020/
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 26 January, 2020, 01:29:34 PM
Correction: 100% renewable ELECTRICITY by end of year. Still about a decade away from replacing gas heating and cooking with renewable electricity.

Scotland’s energy policy laid out here if anyone is interested:

https://www.gov.scot/publications/vision-scotlands-electricity-gas-networks-2030/pages/5/
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: JayzusB.Christ 26 January, 2020, 01:53:00 PM
Fair play.  Hopefully this will spread to other countries. Obviously the orange cretin is too stupid to care but it's a start.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 26 January, 2020, 02:27:35 PM
Fair play.  Hopefully this will spread to other countries. Obviously the orange cretin is too stupid to care but it's a start.

One of the positives about the US is that the states can largely control themselves, and some (almost all Democrat) are fighting back against, for example, the federal emissions laws being rolled back pre-Obama. As such, it’s not all under the control of the Curious Orange.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/21/climate/states-climate-change.html

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Funt Solo 28 January, 2020, 02:27:22 AM
I've heard the theory that a vegan diet is necessary for humanity to save the planet!

But this story (https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200127-how-a-vegan-diet-could-affect-your-intelligence) on the Beeb suggests that if that were to work, humanity would be a bit stupider afterwards.

So, which do you want: smart but no planet, or a few bricks short of a load but a planet to live on? Think about it...
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 28 January, 2020, 07:07:09 AM
Death, or life but slightly less intelligent? I’ll take death!

Just kidding. There’s an argument that eating far less meat is best, but not eliminating it altogether, as livestock is good for soil health. Rewilding plus free roaming (but less) livestock could be the best way forward.

Incidentally, increased levels of CO2 have been linked with a drop in intelligence also. Offices that have poor ventilation accumulate CO2 very quickly, see drops in productivity etc. Plus then there’s the CO2 we constantly flood the atmosphere with...

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-carbon-dioxide-intelligence-greenhouse-gas-more-stupid-ucl-study-a8674706.html
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Tiplodocus 28 January, 2020, 08:21:02 AM
I'm too stupid to respond to this.

But to cherry pick further, the whole article bangs on about vitamin b12 as naturally occurring but if I recall, in reality about 80% of livestock feed is supplemented with b12 because modern farming methods leave animals deficient. So I'm happy to take the supplements myself and cit out the slaughter of the innocent middle-animals.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 28 January, 2020, 10:29:21 AM
Good point!

Coming back to something I flagged earlier in the thread, here’s an article from last year re how the billionaires are preparing for the apocalypse:

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/feb/15/why-silicon-valley-billionaires-are-prepping-for-the-apocalypse-in-new-zealand


By the way, has anyone read ‘Stark’ by Ben Elton? It’s becoming more and more prophetic.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 28 January, 2020, 01:50:49 PM
"US threatens retaliation against EU over proposed carbon tax”

This is one way that petrostates (including the U.S. under Trump/Exxon/Koch) are trying to sabotage efforts by the rest of the world to act on climate.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/us-threatens-retaliation-against-eu-over-proposed-carbon-tax-1.4151974
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 28 January, 2020, 05:02:37 PM
As the climate changes, in some places it creates perfect breeding grounds for pests.

China is experiencing something similar with Armyworm.

Combined with flooding, drought, and other climactic stresses, we are going to see more and more crop failures as time goes on.

https://time.com/5771621/locust-swarms-africa/
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 28 January, 2020, 06:37:35 PM
Some good news - nuclear power in the U.K. fast becoming irrelevant and costly as renewables take the lead.


https://www.theguardian.com/news/2020/jan/27/weatherwatch-nuclear-energy-now-surplus-to-needs-renewable-energy
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Professor Bear 28 January, 2020, 09:07:15 PM
I suspect this is only good news if efficiency, safety, the well-being of the population and the long-term survival of humanity are more important priorities for the UK's governing party than their donors in the nuclear and fossil fuel industries.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 28 January, 2020, 09:22:37 PM
Absolutely. And they’ve got form.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 29 January, 2020, 07:08:06 AM
I mentioned ocean acidification from absorbing CO2 previously. Scientists warned this would affect anything with a shell:

https://ocean.si.edu/ocean-life/invertebrates/ocean-acidification



Now we are actually starting to see this in action:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/27/us/pacific-ocean-acidification-crabs-dissolving-shells-scn-
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 29 January, 2020, 08:21:14 AM
This is a superb article on Antarctica, and in particular the Thwaites glacier.  Did you know the ice in Antarctica holds 90% of the world's fresh water?? Some of the ice is over a mile deep. 

Imagine what would happen to sea levels if all that melts – which it is starting to…


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51097309
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Jim_Campbell 29 January, 2020, 10:41:29 AM

Imagine what would happen to sea levels if all that melts – which it is starting to…

Not just sea levels, as I understand it. All that ice in both the arctic and antarctic circles weighs a huge amount and that mass pressing down has a stabilising effect on the tectonic plates below.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 29 January, 2020, 11:18:43 AM

Imagine what would happen to sea levels if all that melts – which it is starting to…

Not just sea levels, as I understand it. All that ice in both the arctic and antarctic circles weighs a huge amount and that mass pressing down has a stabilising effect on the tectonic plates below.

Yep!!  It's nuts isn't it - in a warming world we are going to see more volcanic activity, particularly in places like Alaska or Greenland where ice is suddenly lost, or permafrost disappears.

Here's an interesting study on Alaska from 2018:

Glaciation of mountainous areas introduce extra load on Earth's crust, which introduces stress in the crust. Depending on the rate of the isostatic uplift due to melting glacier and the composition of the underlying strata, these stresses can be released as landslides, ductile deformation and also as earthquakes. It may look ridiculous that climate change can affect the tectonic plate moment beneath the crust, but scientists like McGuire argue that it cannot just intensify disastrous events like cyclones, volcanoes, tsunamis but can trigger earthquakes as well.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/167/1/012018/pdf


: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 29 January, 2020, 11:53:34 AM
Man-made climate change = Ming the Merciless:

https://youtu.be/_QC7uMo1uPQ
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 01 February, 2020, 02:31:14 PM
Canberra now threatened. If you’ve been following this you’ll have seen some utterly hellish footage.


https://www.vox.com/2020/1/31/21116787/australia-fires-canberra-emergency-air-quality-smoke
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 01 February, 2020, 02:33:09 PM
Africa has been suffering the effects of climate change for some time now, yet it isn’t widely reported.

https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/december-2018-march-2019/global-warming-severe-consequences-africa
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 01 February, 2020, 02:34:23 PM
Massive flooding in Brazil very recently:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/27/americas/rains-floods-minas-gerais-brazil-intl/index.html
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 01 February, 2020, 03:42:47 PM
That free course I did recently restarts in Feb. It is free, and I highly recommend it.

It is from Prof. John Cook of Queensland University, and covers:

- the psychology of denial
- the tactics of the fossil fuel industry to sow discord and alter public opinion
- the science of man-made climate change
- how to recognise and respond to the logical fallacies of deniers


It’s a fascinating course, about eight weeks if you invest 2-3 hours of learning a week.

https://www.edx.org/course/making-sense-of-climate-science-denial
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Funt Solo 04 February, 2020, 06:41:56 PM
Climate change: Australian TV audience boos sceptical senator (https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-australia-51369140/climate-change-australian-tv-audience-boos-sceptical-senator)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: sheridan 05 February, 2020, 01:21:14 PM
Climate change: Australian TV audience boos sceptical senator (https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-australia-51369140/climate-change-australian-tv-audience-boos-sceptical-senator)

Well, that's good news - part of the reason (other than lobbying - read bribing - by oil companies) politicians don't act on climate emergencies is because they think they'll lose votes if they do anything which impinges on those who drives cars and take two airplane holidays a year.  If that isn't a guarantee of popularity then maybe a more principled crop of politicians might get near the decision making...
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 05 February, 2020, 02:53:23 PM
Ah , good old Prof. Mann - he's one of the best climatologists in the world, and he's out in Australia on sabbatical - right in the middle of it burning down around him!!

I might have posted this one before, but here's an example of another Aussie senator, this time taken on by our very own Brian Cox.  It's reassuring to note that the audience reaction was not favourable towards this senator either, and this was before the current bushfire crisis:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lf3TGmaLXow



: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 07 February, 2020, 01:16:43 PM
Kids in Cork do a totally charming and very well put-together rap video about our imminent extinction:

https://www.irishpost.com/news/irish-primary-school-kids-release-brilliant-music-video-rapping-climate-change-isnt-half-bad-178873

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 09 February, 2020, 09:28:27 AM
“They’re tobacco.”

CNBC’s Jim Cramer tells it like it is re fossil fuels .

As the climate emergency worsens, shareholders dump the likes of Exxon from their portfolios for sustainable alternatives.


https://youtu.be/fBAPJg_FAfI
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Funt Solo 12 February, 2020, 10:29:22 PM
Where have all our insects gone? Report finds 50 per cent fewer than 15 years ago (https://www.channel4.com/news/where-have-all-our-insects-gone-report-finds-50-per-cent-fewer-than-15-years-ago)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 13 February, 2020, 10:23:11 AM
Where have all our insects gone? Report finds 50 per cent fewer than 15 years ago (https://www.channel4.com/news/where-have-all-our-insects-gone-report-finds-50-per-cent-fewer-than-15-years-ago)

Yup!  Scientists have been banging on about this for ages. 

For example, species are moving north at a rate of knots as the globe warms.  However, insects struggle with this, as the plants they rely on don't move north as quickly, or the plant growth/flowering will be become less reliable in terms of seasons because of unreliable climactic variation. 

This means the bands of liveable environment (temperature, moisture, plants for food, stable breeding conditions) for insects narrows significantly, or disappears altogether.  End result?  Less insects.

This 7 minute video, created in 2015, from the Denial 101X course I did recently, explains this far better than I can, such as why some insects are now condemned to extinction - a global catastrophe happening in slow motion:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nThLNcXkWg

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 13 February, 2020, 10:25:45 AM
If you want to get really deep into ecological fragility against a backdrop of climate change, and previous mass extinctions, here's a 47 min vid with one of the scientists in that 7 min clip, Jon Bridle:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzTuK5I3Mz8

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 13 February, 2020, 11:08:19 AM
a global catastrophe happening in slow motion
Not even that slow. And some hot takes I’ve seen on this subject have amounted to “great – fewer annoying insects”. ARGH.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 13 February, 2020, 12:37:21 PM
a global catastrophe happening in slow motion
Not even that slow. And some hot takes I’ve seen on this subject have amounted to “great – fewer annoying insects”. ARGH.

I have to admit, my immediate knee-jerk reaction was "Great - less wasps."  Those things are my arch-nemesis.  They love the smell of my fear and always make a point of buzzing around me.

But yeah, the folk who are saying "Great, fewer, annoying insects!" may as well be saying "Great - there goes our food supply!"



Moving away from insect extinction for a moment, I have recently been going down a rabbit-hole of fossil fuel key players funding institutions who then create debate, where there is none, about what is causing climate change.

Here a great resource which illustrates the amount of money Exxon slung at denial between 1998 and 2014, and to whom. 

Check out the interactive map (option in bar on left) - it is INSANE:

https://exxonsecrets.org/html/index.php


Here's a 20 min interview with one of the people who 'followed the money'.  Utterly shocking:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zn_9uBIubzU







: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 13 February, 2020, 02:09:46 PM
Judging by last summer, an insane amount of wasps is somehow the future, despite everything else being in decline. They were all over the fucking place in our area. Every day, we had swarms of the buggers all over our garden, leading to the first time ever our dog got stung. (Poor blighter. 13 years and never a bite and then – RONCH! – angry wasp.)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 13 February, 2020, 07:39:29 PM
I saw a few, but only a few more than the previous year. I wonder if there’s an online resource that tracks wasp numbers in various locales..?
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 13 February, 2020, 08:29:32 PM
I’ve never seen anything like it. The deck was a blanket of wasps, every day. As much as we hate killing things, we bought traps. (Our dog is 13. One sting was one too many.) The things were basically full after a couple of days. It was disgusting. Friends about 10 miles away had much the same problem. Their entire neighbourhood was swamped with wasps. But, yeah, it’d be good to know if this is some bizarre relatively localised issue.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Funt Solo 13 February, 2020, 08:41:38 PM
We had trouble with wasps sometimes when I was growing up - but we lived in a wood, so pretty sure it was just localized and we happened to be near a nest that year.

We built jam traps (one of which was an enamel baby bath), and that did for them.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: M.I.K. 13 February, 2020, 09:17:42 PM
I haven't noticed an increase in wasps, but over the past couple of decades these facehugger gits (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_house_spider) have become increasingly prevalent up here from a starting point of zero.

They're also far too fast for my liking...

With speeds clocked at 0.53 m/s (1.9 km/h; 1.2 mph; 1.7 ft/s), the giant house spider held the Guinness Book of World Records for top spider speed until 1987 when it was displaced by solifugids, although the latter are not true spiders

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 13 February, 2020, 09:38:08 PM
Wasps and spiders. My two phobias. Oh, and wells. But there isn’t an uprising of wells, so I won’t worry about that one.


I’m not keen on locusts either. While there’s a massive insect drop-off overall, some places are producing conditions just perfect for pests:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/02/12/hundreds-billions-locusts-fueled-by-conflict-climate-change-are-swarming-east-africa/
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 14 February, 2020, 09:29:35 AM

At least locusts are edible - they're even kosher!

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 14 February, 2020, 09:36:04 AM

At least locusts are edible - they're even kosher!

Aye, just as well, 'cos it seem likely the crops in places like Ethiopia are going to take a massive hit.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 14 February, 2020, 10:20:55 AM

I know it's not much of a silver lining but it's there.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 14 February, 2020, 10:37:47 AM
Although it turns out if you have a seafood allergy, you’re basically fucked when it comes to eating insects. So that’s me out when it comes to such nosh.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Jim_Campbell 14 February, 2020, 11:09:10 AM
Although it turns out if you have a seafood allergy, you’re basically fucked when it comes to eating insects. So that’s me out when it comes to such nosh.

Oh! What sort of seafood? I have an unpleasant but non-life-threatening one, but only (I think) to certain kinds of fish…
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 14 February, 2020, 11:18:09 AM
People with shellfish allergies may be allergic to the chitin (the insect’s exoskeleton) since it is very similar to the chitin in crustaceans. (https://www.edibleinsects.com/are-people-allergic-to-eating-insects/)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: JayzusB.Christ 14 February, 2020, 11:20:45 AM
It does seem that it's time to bite the beetle and start looking into ways to make eating insects palatable and safe.  A friend of mine got dysentery after eating a fried cockroach in Asia, but it would seem that he was supposed to pick a small piece out instead of drunkenly stuffing the whole thing down his gob, legs stuck in his teeth and all.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 14 February, 2020, 11:22:03 AM

Justice Department Foodstuff A.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Jim_Campbell 14 February, 2020, 11:23:36 AM
People with shellfish allergies may be allergic to the chitin (the insect’s exoskeleton) since it is very similar to the chitin in crustaceans. (https://www.edibleinsects.com/are-people-allergic-to-eating-insects/)

Aha. Ta, Shark. I wondered if that was the case but was too fuckin' lazy to google it.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Hawkmumbler 14 February, 2020, 11:59:09 AM
I must confess to being quiet fond of Locusts on the occasion I ate them. If you've ever eaten a King Prawn you've basically got the experience right there.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 14 February, 2020, 03:16:31 PM

I know it's not much of a silver lining but it's there.

Aye, some people might survive the famine.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 14 February, 2020, 04:17:57 PM

You're welcome, Jim.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Gary James 14 February, 2020, 11:31:52 PM
Aye, some people might survive the famine.
Living just long enough for the floods to get them.
Or fires raging uncontrollably across the landscape.
Or rapidly mutating viruses for which we have no cure.
Or meteors which our technology can't see coming yet.

Or being hit by the No.42 bus while nipping out to the newsagent for a Cornetto.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 15 February, 2020, 10:59:54 AM
Carbon Brief is doing a week-long series on tipping points. The intro article is well worth a read, as are many of the guest articles linked within:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-nine-tipping-points-that-could-be-triggered-by-climate-change?utm_source=web&utm_medium=referal&utm_campaign=TPContentBox
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 16 February, 2020, 10:35:51 AM
Here’s an interesting graph from ‘My World In Data’ which shows the CO2 impact of various types of food, including how it is grown, transported etc etc.

Short answer - eat less beef.

(https://i.imgur.com/Kkav5JM.png)

Link to full article:

https://ourworldindata.org/food-choice-vs-eating-local


Of course, we need to remember that while individual actions are great for any number of reasons, systemic change is needed - and that is driven by government and corporations.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Tiplodocus 16 February, 2020, 11:13:50 AM
Is that milk chocolate or plain?
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 16 February, 2020, 12:06:57 PM
I’d say both probably. It does suck that chocolate is so high up the list.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 16 February, 2020, 12:10:44 PM
There it is folks - the first recorded experiment showing the heat-trapping effects of CO2 (notes here as carbonic acid gas), in 1856, by Eunice Foote. It is an experiment that has been independently corroborated over and over and over, and is a foundation stone of many sciences, including climate science.

And yet there are still deniers out there who say the CO2 we are pumping into the atmosphere is having no effect on our climate.  ::)

https://publicdomainreview.org/collection/first-paper-to-link-co2-and-global-warming-by-eunice-foote-1856


(https://i.imgur.com/S3ranLS.jpg)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 16 February, 2020, 03:20:57 PM
It does suck that chocolate is so high up the list.

Right, but this is per kilo of chocolate.  That's a lot of chocolate, about 9 Dairy Milks - and maybe 5,500 calories, over twice as much as a kilo of beef or chicken, which Google tells me the average American eats 2kg of per week (0.5 pounds of meat a day! Christ!).

Even with strict environmental principles, I think you have room for sufficient chocolate in your diet if you're behaving elsewhere.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Professor Bear 16 February, 2020, 03:35:21 PM
Interesting reminder from Novara (https://novaramedia.com/2020/02/15/the-governments-inadequate-response-to-flooding-is-further-proof-it-just-doesnt-get-climate-change/) that climate catastrophe isn't some far away abstract but a reality that some parts of our own country have been dealing with for years now.
The media haven't been covering this like the scandal it is but instead with a shrug at this just being the way things are now - see also: the yearly New York floods and snowstorms.  We aren't far away from floods permanently damaging homes or infrastructure and people having to relocate elsewhere, but the way the story is covered now shows we'll only see this as a string of human interest pieces on lost heirlooms and not what it really is: Britons turned into refugees in their own country, and we've seen with the Grenfell survivors how that's going to turn out when coupled with the housing shortage and a government and media colluding to sweep human beings and their situation under the rug.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 16 February, 2020, 04:50:24 PM
Didn't noted intellectual  Ben Shapiro explain the solution (https://youtu.be/6JqYUWl9qAA) clearly enough for you, Prof? People in flood-affected areas should just sell their houses and move. Simple as that.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: paddykafka 16 February, 2020, 05:42:45 PM
Or alternatively, they could just buy one of these nifty little abodes.

https://afloat.ie/resources/marine-industry-news/waterfront-property/item/38256-floating-homes-plan-for-dun-laoghaire-harbour-moves-forward
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 16 February, 2020, 06:48:00 PM
Yep, totally agree with that article.

Here in Cardiff there are some plans to put up a sea wall not far from where I am. That’s great for sea level increase (for a short while) but does nothing to address flooding from our river, the Taff.

An example from today - Bute Park, flooded.

(https://i.imgur.com/MXSZCYe.jpg)

Last night this area of Cardiff got a highly unusual yellow warning alert that they could see flooding, all based on the river - nothing to do with the sea:

(https://i.imgur.com/Qk0xNMa.jpg)

Although, if we are talking about sea level rise, here’s how much of Cardiff is likely to be flooded regularly from storm surges by 2050:

(https://i.imgur.com/1xZZ7kF.png)

So yeah - sea level rise might be a focus at the mo, especially with current fears about the imminent collapse of the Thwaites glacier, but people are often ignoring the other big flood risk - increased precipitation.

As the sea warms there’s more energy for storms. As the air warms, there’s more room for humidity. When you combine storm power with extra humidity you get sudden dumps of enormous volumes of water.

https://www.climatecentral.org/news/report-pouring-it-on-climate-change-intensifies-heavy-rain-events

Wales saw that this weekend, as did many other parts of the U.K.

The sad thing is, the increased regularity of storms and heavy inland precipitation isn’t the new normal. It is going to get worse.




: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 16 February, 2020, 06:51:05 PM
PS - There are multimillion pound developments going up in Cardiff Bay currently. Those idiots are going to lose a LOT of money over the next decade.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 16 February, 2020, 06:58:33 PM
PPS - Wales has long been a subject of interest for climatologists, as per this article on flooding and rainfall in 2012, which also noted at the time:

”The question is partially answered by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation: put simply, this holds that in a warming trend, for every added degree Celsius the air can potentially hold 7% more water vapour. It therefore follows that moist air-masses, such as those advected towards the UK from the sub-tropical Atlantic, can become substantially moister in a warming world, leading to more intense rainfall-rates and increased event-totals.”

https://skepticalscience.com/2012-floods.html
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Gary James 16 February, 2020, 08:05:14 PM
There are multimillion pound developments going up in Cardiff Bay currently.
Again? Or is this continuing from the revitalization of the area which began in the 90s?

It would be interesting to see the final cost (adjusted for inflation) transforming a location so completely comes to - although at least some of the money poured into the area has been from tourism thanks to a certain television series and its offshoots.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 16 February, 2020, 08:33:03 PM
There are multimillion pound developments going up in Cardiff Bay currently.
Again? Or is this continuing from the revitalization of the area which began in the 90s?


Yep, again:

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/local-news/plans-transform-cardiff-bay-1000-17034304
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Gary James 16 February, 2020, 09:27:15 PM
*sees overhead shot of swimming pool close to water's edge*
*ponders if planners anticipated rising water levels*
*considers tasteless joke about self-refilling pool*

The mention of Toys R Us brought a tear to my eye. Used to be a great retailer to pick up cheap action figures when they had sales on...

I don't know what storm we are on now - really racing through the alphabet at the moment with names - but the wind is causing merry havoc with the trees outside. I'm going to be so disappointed if I'm finally done in by a falling branch, rather than my anticipated demise at ninety years old (in a threesome with twins).
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 17 February, 2020, 10:24:39 AM
Prof. Katy Hayhoe is one of the greatest communicators of climate change.  Her Global Weirding series is massively accessible, with a 'Plain English' approach to the commentary, combined with nifty cartoon animations to keep folk engaged.

Also, they are designed to be completely non-partisan.  In fact, she even has an episode which relates climate change to evangelicals!!

If you ever wanted to discuss a topic around climate change with your kids or family, I recommend picking an episode from her channel, watching it together, and then discussing it:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCi6RkdaEqgRVKi3AzidF4ow


Anyway, I particularly liked this episode, which asks "Is Carbon Dioxide really a pollutant?"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfq72W3RP_o


I also recommend following her on Twitter - @KHayhoe - where she regularly tweets fantastic updates re the climate change and the world at large, in a very positive and engaging way.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 17 February, 2020, 10:31:05 AM
I used to live in Adamsdown. The entire area was… damp. Even so, that’s quite a sobering map. As for flooding, I do get the impression a lot of people are looking at sea-oriented flood maps and thinking PHEW. These things aren’t smart enough to understand increased rainfall, rising rivers, etc.

Here in sunny Fleet, we have a water sink in the shape of Fleet Pond. Even so, our garden for the first time ever was basically 50 per cent standing water yesterday, with a few bits of grass poking out. I’ve never seen anything like it before. I suspect I will again though. (And I’m not remotely trying to compare this to, you know, actual flooding. But from small bits of temporary flooding to genuine human disaster, these are all needles moving in the wrong direction.)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Gary James 17 February, 2020, 01:02:14 PM
Even so, our garden for the first time ever was basically 50 per cent standing water yesterday, with a few bits of grass poking out. I’ve never seen anything like it before. I suspect I will again though.
There's a solution out there, but I don't think the mechanism has ever been fully disclosed - Paul Daniels had some sort of "lift" constructed under his home so that it could... rise? I keep imagining it being like Benny from Who Framed Roger Rabbit, or Inspector Gadget, though the reality is probably terribly dry (pun slightly intended).
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 18 February, 2020, 09:51:37 AM
This is an interesting article re how climate change is covered in US schools, and how ideology can stand in the way of the science:

https://smile.oregonstate.edu/sites/smile.oregonstate.edu/files/climateconfusion_article.pdf


I wonder how UK schools fare? Does anyone have any stats/figures or even teaching experiences?
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 18 February, 2020, 10:30:50 AM
Even so, our garden for the first time ever was basically 50 per cent standing water yesterday, with a few bits of grass poking out. I’ve never seen anything like it before. I suspect I will again though. (And I’m not remotely trying to compare this to, you know, actual flooding. But from small bits of temporary flooding to genuine human disaster, these are all needles moving in the wrong direction.)

That is actually a good indication of groundwater saturation, and the ability of the area to quickly drain. This is affected by the frequency of precipitation, and the volume. Both of which are going up as the world warms.

This article from the U.K. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology last November refers to the standing water you describe as an indication of increased flooding risk.

https://www.ceh.ac.uk/news-and-media/blogs/briefing-note-severity-november-2019-floods-preliminary-analysis


It finishes with this, a clear attribution to climate change:

It will no doubt take time for an attribution to be published for this flood event. But what we can say with some certainty is that there has been an increasing trend in flooding over the last four or five decades in parts of northern Britain and this is at least consistent with what we may expect in a warming world.

There are also a host of other potential factors that may contribute towards flooding in any catchment, based on catchment/land management practices, but their role in these as in other major flood events is not clear at present, and will no doubt be investigated further. However, while such factors can play a significant role in influencing the magnitude of peak levels or flows, their importance is secondary to the role of exceptional rainfall in the case of major flood events such as these.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: I, Cosh 18 February, 2020, 11:46:58 AM
I'm going to be so disappointed if I'm finally done in by a falling branch, rather than my anticipated demise at ninety years old (in a threesome with twins).
Poor Jedward.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Gary James 18 February, 2020, 12:49:16 PM
Poor Jedward.
:lol:

Their hairstyles are a bit There's Something About Mary...
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 20 February, 2020, 05:51:59 PM
Food insecurity is creeping ever-closer to our supermarket shelves:

https://www.fwi.co.uk/business/markets-and-trends/crop-prices/wheat-and-osr-cropping-area-revised-sharply-down


For a reminder of how food insecurity has increased across the globe in the last year I recommend this thread on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/jimbair62221006/status/1216112893906735104?s=21
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Funt Solo 20 February, 2020, 06:45:16 PM
This is an interesting article re how climate change is covered in US schools, and how ideology can stand in the way of the science:

https://smile.oregonstate.edu/sites/smile.oregonstate.edu/files/climateconfusion_article.pdf


I wonder how UK schools fare? Does anyone have any stats/figures or even teaching experiences?

I'm a teacher in US schools, but I don't teach about climate change. I do notice, however, that we're in an odd place as a society because people are generally polarized into two camps here: Democrats and Republicans. And it's so clearly polarized that people will support terrible things (say, locking children up in cages, or removing them from their parents and shipping them miles away through interstate adoption) if their tribe's label is attached.

It's the same with climate change. If the president says it's a matter of opinion - and that actually it's just the natural world, it doesn't matter that it's utterly refuted by all scientific evidence. Any good Republican can now rest easy that climate change isn't caused by humans.

And, as the article points out, a teacher might find themselves not wanting to rock the boat: and so behaving as if climate change is a political issue more than it is a scientific issue. If it's political, because we have a binary system that is highly polarized, it's as if each side has about a 50/50 chance of being right.

I have relatives who defend the most backwards logic (around climate) on the basis that "well, we just have different political beliefs".

It's fucking insane! Earth is Easter Island.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Tjm86 20 February, 2020, 07:16:04 PM
For all the moaning about 'lefty teachers' there are incredibly few out there.  Those that do exist tend to be more constrained anyway.  Even so any politicising in the classroom can get you into a world of trouble, especially now that we're teaching "generation outrage" ....

IIRC climate science is covered in both science and in geography and in a fairly nuanced way.  The emphasis is very much of scientific validity and reliability.  Environmentalism is pushed through PSE / PSHE.  It's generally possible to have quite a reasonable discussion about any controversy and even explore the reasons why those ideas might have come into being. 

As for use and abuse of data, one of the pushes in Maths is to cover the ways in which graphs and statistics can be misleading alongside interpretation.  There is quite a bit now in the GCSE around what graphs can and can't tell you for instance but a lot of that work has already started much earlier.  The same goes with probability.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: JayzusB.Christ 21 February, 2020, 12:20:15 PM
It's fucking insane! Earth is Easter Island.

It's definitely the perfect example: Humans simply can't be trusted to stop fucking things up; even as their world crumbles around them.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Pyroxian 21 February, 2020, 12:34:40 PM
As for use and abuse of data, one of the pushes in Maths is to cover the ways in which graphs and statistics can be misleading alongside interpretation.  There is quite a bit now in the GCSE around what graphs can and can't tell you for instance but a lot of that work has already started much earlier.  The same goes with probability.

The RI Christmas Lectures covered a lot of that this year: https://www.rigb.org/christmas-lectures/watch/2019/secrets-and-lies
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 21 February, 2020, 01:06:23 PM

It's fucking insane! Earth is Easter Island.

It's definitely the perfect example: Humans simply can't be trusted to stop fucking things up; even as their world crumbles around them.

It isn't quite the perfect example - the Easter Islanders were able to move on to other lands.  We don't have that option.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Gary James 21 February, 2020, 01:31:57 PM
It isn't quite the perfect example - the Easter Islanders were able to move on to other lands.  We don't have that option.
Uh... Pitcairn Island, over twelve hundred miles away? And not forgetting that by the point where they might have considered this option there likely weren't enough trees left to make boats anyway - once the people who landed there originally were settled in (on fertile land, with an abundance of fish in the water) there wasn't much chance of them moving on.
For all of the unbridled optimism I (pitifully) try to keep under wraps, even I can see that the chance of establishing a well-populated moon base is slim, and any kind of outpost on Mars is even more problematic. Humanity, for the moment, is pretty much in the same situation as the Easter Islanders - we know that there is more land out there, but getting people to that real estate is difficult at best.
And honestly, hands up - who among you would volunteer to get shot off to Mars or somewhere? That's a big ask, knowing you would never see friends or family again.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 21 February, 2020, 03:23:15 PM
It isn't quite the perfect example - the Easter Islanders were able to move on to other lands.  We don't have that option.
Uh... Pitcairn Island, over twelve hundred miles away? And not forgetting that by the point where they might have considered this option there likely weren't enough trees left to make boats anyway - once the people who landed there originally were settled in (on fertile land, with an abundance of fish in the water) there wasn't much chance of them moving on.

Current thinking on Easter Island is that this is largely tosh. Things only started going to shit for the Rapa Nui people and their monumental culture when (surprise) Dutch colonists showed up in the 1720s: the infamous tree clearance was either what all agricultural societies have to do (and appears to have been sustainable as any other) or was exacerbated by rats.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Gary James 21 February, 2020, 03:59:46 PM
Things only started going to shit for the Rapa Nui people and their monumental culture when (surprise) Dutch colonists showed up in the 1720s
The point wasn't how things went to hell, the point was this - at the moment someone might have decided "it's time to get going," things had already exacerbated to the point where a viable exit was not an option. Remember, in the moving of a colony, that the very young, the sick (which would have been more than a few), and the elderly or infirm also have to be moved, or else abandoned. It takes a lot to make an journey as would have to have been undertaken, and they didn't have an infrastructure which would have easily accomodated a move such as to a nearby island.
the infamous tree clearance was either what all agricultural societies have to do (and appears to have been sustainable as any other) or was exacerbated by rats.
Although it is a nice line of thought that there was a "clearance," the fact is that decent trees were scarce at the best of times during the period where some inhabitants would have wanted most desperately to escape. Added to that, the selection of trees available were not weren't all of a useful kind - you can't use some types of wood for much more than nice carvings or for shelter. The types of trees which had wood suitable for boats were fewer than needed, and at least a few would have ended up burned.

 You add it all together and it is clear that the constant exploitation of the island and its people - not to mention the complexity of moving an entire culture - made getting out en masse an unviable proposition. That isn't to say that people didn't book for the nearest exit, but the culture was rooted - in both senses of the word.
And the tree thing specifically? The rats, and likely fires from raiders, put paid to any chance of people using the wood for anything useful - simply wasn't enough to build boats large enough. This wasn't deep into the 1800s either, but likely around the mid-1700s . At a guess, things probably went to shit in the 1740s or 50s, as diseases, rats, attacks, and a changing weather system took its toll.
 
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Professor Bear 21 February, 2020, 05:55:51 PM
And honestly, hands up - who among you would volunteer to get shot off to Mars or somewhere? That's a big ask, knowing you would never see friends or family again.

A better question would be why NASA would be recruiting from a comic book forum populated by men in their late 60s.
https://www.popsci.com/article/science/why-thousands-people-are-willing-die-mars/
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: JayzusB.Christ 21 February, 2020, 06:38:10 PM
It isn't quite the perfect example - the Easter Islanders were able to move on to other lands.  We don't have that option.
Uh... Pitcairn Island, over twelve hundred miles away? And not forgetting that by the point where they might have considered this option there likely weren't enough trees left to make boats anyway - once the people who landed there originally were settled in (on fertile land, with an abundance of fish in the water) there wasn't much chance of them moving on.

Current thinking on Easter Island is that this is largely tosh. Things only started going to shit for the Rapa Nui people and their monumental culture when (surprise) Dutch colonists showed up in the 1720s: the infamous tree clearance was either what all agricultural societies have to do (and appears to have been sustainable as any other) or was exacerbated by rats.

Why are you continuing your bigoted campaign against North European white males, the most persecuted race in history?

Real response:  Cheers; I never knew that.  I usually rely on Q.I. to debunk theories I thought were gospel,  but this board has played a big part too.

Maybe Lord of the Flies is a better example?  I know the island is actually a microcosmic version of the global nuclear conflict going on around it, but the ending (or at least the bit just before the ending) seems painfully appropriate to the current climate situation too.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 21 February, 2020, 06:57:52 PM
5his wasn't deep into the 1800s either, but likely around the mid-1700s . At a guess, things probably went to shit in the 1740s or 50s, as diseases, rats, attacks, and a changing weather system took its toll.

Dunno what to tell you about any putative evacuation - as it never happened speculating about the logistics seems odd. Current  archaeological thinking is that the sophisticated monument-building culture chugged along relativey happily for at least 3 centuries from the 1400s to the 1720s and Dutch contact, and then - within a generation - monument building ceased and many were in ruins by the 1750s, and a century later the island was depopulated.  Correlation ain't causation, but you'd be ill-advised not to condider European contact and note that equivalent utter devastation followed for almost every indiginous culture from the 16th-19th centuries.

So rather than the Malthusian morality tale that the Rapa Nui people are frequently presented as, it might be more valid to see their later history in the light of the poisonous expansion of European interests.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 21 February, 2020, 08:48:24 PM
The amount the Big Fossil Fuel names spend on lies, disinfo, and propaganda is calculated.

(https://i.imgur.com/aSzkzeO.jpg)

Article here:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2019/03/25/oil-and-gas-giants-spend-millions-lobbying-to-block-climate-change-policies-infographic/?fbclid=IwAR2FxtNJqQlexCDwPiNBPmxsak6XAmMFm4i4_aL1eDhJadNy8q_3vzbE-NI#5f6451687c4f
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: paddykafka 21 February, 2020, 09:56:07 PM
And honestly, hands up - who among you would volunteer to get shot off to Mars or somewhere? That's a big ask, knowing you would never see friends or family again.

A better question would be why NASA would be recruiting from a comic book forum populated by men in their late 60s.
https://www.popsci.com/article/science/why-thousands-people-are-willing-die-mars/

I've got to admit, that to a certain - albeit very small - extent, I could be tempted, given that I've little in the way of personal ties holding me down to this rock. I think it's worth noting that, particularly from about 173 years ago -and for quite a few generations up until relatively recently - a great many of my fellow Irish were forced by famine and abysmal economic circumstances, to emigrate to far-off places like America, for example, with no prospect of ever seeing their family or friends again.

That being said, it would of course be remiss of me, not to note the obvious distinctions and differences between the New World to which those people were travelling, and the very serious challenges and limitations that those of our generation would have to face going to Mars. I just wonder if, perhaps, it is those very real difficulties that would put so many people off participating in such a venture, as opposed to the anguish they would feel at having to say goodbye, forever, to their kith and kin?

Needless to say, I'm just putting this out there as one possible theory.

And if I could not have the Galaxy's greatest comic delivered to me in some format or other, then you could definitely count me out of the whole enterprise.  :D
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Gary James 21 February, 2020, 10:44:12 PM
A better question would be why NASA would be recruiting from a comic book forum populated by men in their late 60s.
https://www.popsci.com/article/science/why-thousands-people-are-willing-die-mars/ (https://www.popsci.com/article/science/why-thousands-people-are-willing-die-mars/)
That project makes me slightly nervous about the fate of anyone applying - while it is great in theory, the harsh reality is that anyone who goes to Mars is going to have to be adept at a number of extremely technical tasks. That's the whole reason people train like mad for months just to get to the ISS, and that is practically on our doorstep.
Soooo close to saying "you could practically commute," but given that some of the rockets in regular use are old Soviet ones - would anyone really want to? Talk about Russian Roulette...

Correlation ain't causation, but you'd be ill-advised not to condider European contact and note that equivalent utter devastation followed for almost every indiginous culture from the 16th-19th centuries.
While it reduces the native population's agency somewhat, and is a slightly dangerous line of thinking, I can't help but think that the take-away from that situation has a really clear, and extremely specific, warning for us all:
Humanity screws stuff up.

If we are extremely broad in covering things that humans have destroyed, then the extinction of the hominids we shared the planet with,  the wooly mammoth and other large species all the way up to the eradication of the Dodo are all humanity's fault. If we want to kick back and say "yeah, but that's all in the past," we're going to have to find an answer for what is happening now (https://www.livescience.com/51281-sixth-mass-extinction-is-here.html).
We can't even be trusted, as a species, to not screw up things out of sight under water (https://www.sciencealert.com/93-of-the-great-barrier-reef-is-now-damaged-by-coral-bleaching). And then there's the massive and horrifying damage to New Zealand and Australia's ecosystems, which is an ongoing problem that is likely to have at least a few species wondering why the two-leggged monsters are intent on killing everything in their wake. Because... Yeah, we're the boogeyman for other things that live on Earth. Deal with it.
We. Really. Suck.

Man, this is depressing. There's a reason I prefer to focus on the brighter stuff, like batteries that run on sweat - for all the absolutely awful things which get reported, there are things coming along that are going to change how we (as a species, across the entire planet) will be consuming energy, exploitiing resources, and treating our fellow living entities on the planet. It is kinda like Sisyphus pushing with that boulder - it may take us some time, and it definitely won't be easy, but we're making a little progress.
Hopefully not with the outcome that the boulder keeps rolling back down the hill every so often. Or squishing humanity. Or... Actually that's an awful comparison. Sorry...
...it would of course be remiss of me, not to note the obvious distinctions and differences between the New World to which those people were travelling, and the very serious challenges and limitations that those of our generation would have to face going to Mars.
Putting people on Mars isn't going to be the big step, just as putting people on the moon wasn't - in retrospect - all that big a deal, outside of cultural excitement. It wasn't the point of the moon mission to drastically advance anything - they were largely using the same stuff they had to hand for a few years - but what came after was important. It was like dominos, and without that one piece toppling just right, then all the other advances, leading up to SPACEX launching a sports car into space merely because it could, wouldn't have been possible.
We aren't quite at the place where a solar system spanning internet could be put into operation (and it is longer away than it sounds), and communication is always going to be limited with delays (you can't science the fuck out of that one. Ever), but getting humanity on Mars is a step towards that rough idea. I'll admit that I have no idea how relays are going to work, given the problematic orbits or Earth and Mars, but there are smart people who can think those things out.
The flashy crowd-pleasing spectacles are never the really important moments. What comes after, the slow progress where we get all kinds of new technologies springing up that nobody expected, is what we should celebrate. When people outside SF communities finally get that notion into their heads, we get to grin and say "David Gerrold was right."Of course, they won't know who the hell he is, so...
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Funt Solo 21 February, 2020, 10:58:27 PM
Earth is Easter Island.

Current thinking on Easter Island is that this is largely tosh.

Earth is the commonly held but easily understood misconception applied to Easter Island.

OR

Humanity fiddles while Rome burns (except Rome here is the Earth, and Humanity isn't Nero - and the fact that the fiddle hadn't been invented when he was supposed to be playing it is not relevant because it's just a useful analogy).

And there's not a giant fiddle.

And I'm not suggesting that every human owns a fiddle.

Also: Rome is not on fire (at least, not on the scale the statement suggests - no doubt there is a fire somewhere in Rome at this point in time.)

*Mutter mumble groan*
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Dandontdare 22 February, 2020, 12:09:24 AM
A little light relief from the grimness, a song from an artist I love about saving what we've got vs relying on space.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHTsHuiPuCE (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHTsHuiPuCE)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 22 February, 2020, 10:01:17 AM
A little light relief from the grimness, a song from an artist I love about saving what we've got vs relying on space.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHTsHuiPuCE (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHTsHuiPuCE)

That was awesome - thank you. “We have it all here.”

Any discussion of a colony onthe Moon or Mars is misdirection from dealing with what we have here and now.

As an intellectual exercise it is a fun diversion, but the reality is every attempt to create any kind of self-sustaining biosphere cut-off from our pre-existing natural one, on or off planet, has failed. Any colony would rely on a constant stream of supplies from Earth, or it would die very quickly.

So whether we stay here or sail into the void we will still rely on Earth. As such, we need to focus all our efforts on maintaining the hospitable environment of Earth.

Back to square one folks - what are we going to do to prevent our planet becoming any more dangerous towards us?
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 22 February, 2020, 10:37:35 AM
You say that, but I half remember a movie, and I’m pretty sure all you need to survive on Mars is some potatoes and a space suit.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 22 February, 2020, 02:16:36 PM
Has everyone seen that leaked report from JP Morgan?

In case you’re not sure who they are:

“ J.P. Morgan is the world's largest financial backer of fossil fuel companies, helping to fund fracking, pipeline projects, and Arctic oil and gas exploration. The company has contributed $75 billion to such projects since the Paris climate agreement was forged in 2015.”

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/02/21/jp-morgan-economists-warn-catastrophic-outcomes-human-caused-climate-crisis


Full leaked report here:

https://rebellion.earth/wp/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/JPM_Risky_business__the_climate_and_the_macroeconomy_2020-01-14_3230707.pdf.pdf
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 22 February, 2020, 04:23:26 PM

As usual (they have a long history of it), JPM are playing both sides. (https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2017/07/jpmorgan-chase-renewables/)

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 22 February, 2020, 05:25:32 PM
That stinks of greenwashing. Changing their offices to renewables versus trillions spent over two years supporting fracking, oil and gas exploration, and Arctic drilling, is very much one-sided if you ask me.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 22 February, 2020, 09:57:12 PM

If they can make money out of oil, they will. If they can make money out of solar, they will. If they can make money out of both, they will. They don't care where their profits come from so long as there's profits.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 23 February, 2020, 07:01:56 AM
That’s very true. So let’s look forward to a day when investing in oil is not profitable, whereas investing in renewables is.

Perhaps it’s not that far off:

https://youtu.be/fBAPJg_FAfI
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: The Legendary Shark 23 February, 2020, 07:57:39 AM

The banking/money creation industry has killed and subjugated more people, and done more damage, than anything else and needs to be reformed at a fundamental level. However, my views on this have been well aired and there's no need for me to revisit them here.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 26 February, 2020, 10:24:35 AM
The UN appeals for aid in stopping the worst locust outbreak since 1944 to prevent food insecurity across Africa, with some areas affected who have never seen the pest before:

https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/02/1058041


The UN links the outbreak unequivocally to climate change:

https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/story/locust-swarms-and-climate-change
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 27 February, 2020, 11:38:54 PM
Gutted I can’t get to Bristol tomorrow to support Greta Thunberg.

Instead I’m staying in work, so I can present to my team about climate change and Greta’s message, covering the science, global impact, individual action, our company’s action, and the systemic change needed to avoid the death of millions upon millions of people.

Wish me luck!
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Gary James 27 February, 2020, 11:56:58 PM
Gutted I can’t get to Bristol tomorrow to support Greta Thunberg.
There will be other opportunities. You're supporting her by spreading the message, which is just as important.

Wish me luck!
Good luck. Let us know how things go.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Funt Solo 28 February, 2020, 12:07:08 AM
Gutted I can’t get to Bristol tomorrow to support Greta Thunberg.

Instead I’m staying in work, so I can present to my team about climate change and Greta’s message, covering the science, global impact, individual action, our company’s action, and the systemic change needed to avoid the death of millions upon millions of people.

Wish me luck!

Break a leg (or, y’know, an ecosystem).
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: von Boom 28 February, 2020, 02:01:03 PM
An oil company is Canada is issuing despicable stickers of Thunberg. I don't even know where to begin with this level of stupidity and hated.

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/greta-thunberg-alberta-oil_ca_5e58175fc5b60102210e12ff (https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/greta-thunberg-alberta-oil_ca_5e58175fc5b60102210e12ff)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 28 February, 2020, 02:36:17 PM
Knowing what I know about the depths people/fossil fuel industries will go, this has still shocked me.

Surely cartoons depicting sexual assault on a 17 year old are against the law?
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Gary James 28 February, 2020, 02:55:43 PM
Surely cartoons depicting sexual assault on a 17 year old are against the law?
Yes. Better than that - now the image is circulating on the internet, and is very likely hosted on servers outside Canada, whoever created it is going to have multiple authorities going after them, not just Canadian police.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Professor Bear 28 February, 2020, 03:16:24 PM
You will note the response is framed from the point of view of pro-oil activists and pro-oil politicians.  Huffpo isn't fooling anyone.
Especially odious is that Thunberg is one of the world's most - if not the most - high-profile climate anxiety sufferers, so those involved in this astroturfing exercise know full well they're making sure that a teenager with mental health problems sees that image.  Our shithouse media is not shining a light on this, they're making sure it gets the platform the oil lobby wants it to have.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Mister Pops 28 February, 2020, 03:17:58 PM
The only thing remotely funny about that is that a huge powerful oil company feels so intimidated by a teenage girl they have to stoop lower than I thought they were capable
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: von Boom 28 February, 2020, 03:34:46 PM
If you mean funny a living nightmare, then I agree with you.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 28 February, 2020, 07:17:32 PM
Yes. Better than that - now the image is circulating on the internet, and is very likely hosted on servers outside Canada, whoever created it is going to have multiple authorities going after them, not just Canadian police.

Good gods, I hope there's a jail sentence at the end of this. Wankers, fecking wankers.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Gary James 28 February, 2020, 08:16:47 PM
Our shithouse media is not shining a light on this, they're making sure it gets the platform the oil lobby wants it to have.
My niece is a little bit younger than Greta. She sees the climate as one among a number of things which needs setting straight post haste, which coupled with having no fear of speaking her mind makes me slightly nervous about where the world is headed - when she gets an idea into her head she's going to damn well make sure everyone knows what she thinks.

It is really chilling that there are people who think going after children this way is a reasonable course of action. It is properly terrifying that there's enough support in the hinterlands of the internet that the shit who created that image is, at this very moment, likely being celebrated - and no, I don't have the will or a burning need to see if that is actually the case. I'd really rather not.

Good gods, I hope there's a jail sentence at the end of this. Wankers, fecking wankers.

Up to a maximum of twenty years. It is unlikely, in this instance, to be as much as that, but still...
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: JayzusB.Christ 29 February, 2020, 12:38:25 PM
What. The fuck.

I really hope someone does time for this.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 29 February, 2020, 05:27:25 PM
As usual, it takes a 17 year old to show many folk what a mature response looks like:

(https://i.imgur.com/wnDCnwJ.jpg)

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Mister Pops 29 February, 2020, 05:32:53 PM
As usual, it takes a 17 year old to show many folk what a mature response looks like:

(https://i.imgur.com/wnDCnwJ.jpg)

This is kinda the point I was trying to make earlier.

Fuck me, a wean using her second language is more eloquent than I.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 29 February, 2020, 06:30:45 PM
Yeah, I got what you meant, and it definitely is a silver lining in this awful situation.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: JayzusB.Christ 29 February, 2020, 07:40:16 PM
Well said, that girl.  She's a force to be reckoned with now; I hope in a few years she'll be even more powerful.  And the US has proved that being 'on the spectrum' is no barrier to becoming the most powerful person in the world.

Meanwhile, I've read the comments below thejournal.ie's article about her recent speech in the UK, and it seems that a huge proportion of Irish people think she's either no longer relevant or just out for self-promotion. Anything other than face the truth that she's angry at our generation for fucking the world up for hers, and she's right to be.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: von Boom 29 February, 2020, 08:59:32 PM
Well said, that girl.  She's a force to be reckoned with now; I hope in a few years she'll be even more powerful.  And the US has proved that being 'on the spectrum' is no barrier to becoming the most powerful person in the world.

Meanwhile, I've read the comments below thejournal.ie's article about her recent speech in the UK, and it seems that a huge proportion of Irish people think she's either no longer relevant or just out for self-promotion. Anything other than face the truth that she's angry at our generation for fucking the world up for hers, and she's right to be.
First rule of Internet Club: Don't read the comments.

Sometimes I think comments to articles are just wind ups. At least I bloody hope so or this world is more fucked than I want to imagine.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Gary James 29 February, 2020, 10:09:00 PM
Sometimes I think comments to articles are just wind ups.
Depends on both the site and the page in question. A great many of the comments might be offensive for the sake of being offensive, the posters not realizing that there's a qualitative difference between some random asshole on the internet and George Carlin.

At least I bloody hope so or this world is more fucked than I want to imagine.
There's enough hopeful things on the internet to balance out the awful (or, at the very least, to mitigate some of the worst), and the loudest voices aren't necessarily that of the majority. Yes, there are utterly vile, destructive, malicious trolls making a nuisance of themselves, but there are people who are really amazing. And not everyone is even on the internet.

I'm giving humanity the benefit of the doubt. We're good. There's enough people doing things which are inspirational, heartwarming, and life-affirming to show up the nihilistic ramblings of a few idiots for what they are. Having said that, it is 2020 and I am still having to point out that racism / sexism / ageism / whatever else is not cool, so the message isn't sinking in to a few people out there.

Sometimes those comments might be automatically added as well. People have bots for all kinds of things, so a few screens of similar comments might only be one person, amplifying their anger and impotence through technological means.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Tjm86 01 March, 2020, 07:33:30 AM
Sometimes I think comments to articles are just wind ups. At least I bloody hope so or this world is more fucked than I want to imagine.

I've taken to listening to LBC on occasions as an opportunity to get a sense of some of the thinking that goes on among different segments of the population that don't frequent comment sections.  If you think some of those comments are wind ups then I would not recommend it without a strong constitution.  Some scary ideas floating around, and that is just the presenters!

Thunberg's visit to Bristol has had folks whipped up into a lather, complaining of how 'woke' everything is on BBC in particular.  Newsround has come in for some heavy criticism for talking about nothing but Thunberg and the climate crisis.  Apparently CBBC is now indoctrinating our youth!  'Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells' has nothing on some of LBC's listeners.

On the plus side though, more and more kids are coming round to the idea of having to do something about this.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 01 March, 2020, 09:52:10 AM
What gets me about the anti-Greta brigade is they throw such ridiculous accusations her way. "She’s no scientist!” Well, she’s not – she’s literally just telling people to respond to the warnings from scientists. “She’s coming to the UK? She’s a hypocrite because she’ll be using carbon!” She’s not against transport nor even carbon footprints; she’s against overuse, and in favour of sustainability. I suspect she took the train to Bristol. She took a fucking BOAT across the Atlantic. “What does a kid know anyway?” More than you, internet troll…
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Tjm86 01 March, 2020, 01:08:24 PM
"She's no scientist" ....

.... and yet when scientists do try to get their point across they get slagged off too.  The data is equivocal.  It isn't clear what the cause is.  It could be solar activity.  It could be the natural cycle of the earth.

There are times when I wonder if the last season of the Newsroom had it right.  "It's like your sat in your car in your garage with the engine running and you've just slipped into a coma ..."
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 01 March, 2020, 01:18:59 PM
It isn't clear what the cause is.
Although if it isn’t humans, the massive spike post-industrial revolution, and very rapid increase over the past couple of decades regarding extreme weather is quite the coincidence. I recognise correlation isn’t causation, but the general consensus among scientists is we’re massively fucking things up, and are now at best in a damage limitation scenario.

“It began with the bees…”
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 01 March, 2020, 01:39:41 PM
Meanwhile, I've read the comments below thejournal.ie's article ...

When I'm Supreme Leader I'll be using TheJournal's comment section and the Newstalk text line to draw up the list for the Re-Education Camps*. It's not representative of the people of this country, or the last two referenda, two GEs and the Euros would have gone very differently.

However, the extent to which thst forum normalises hate speech which should be beyond any legal threshold is deeply disturbing. If you saw some of it in '30s Nazi propaganda you'd be shocked.



*Euphemism. They can't be re-educated because they were never educated in the first place. It's just Rockall and a few fishing rods.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: Professor Bear 01 March, 2020, 02:29:14 PM
I'm against re-education camps, having invested heavily in the guillotine industry.

Right wing opinions being seen as the default serves the interests of the ruling classes, but if you go to DogPoopEaters.com and read the comments, you don't come away thinking the world is full of people who eat dog poop - so why the BBC put writers from DogPoopEaters.com on Newsnight is anyone's guess, but they are not journalists and the media should not be uncritically platforming their ideas as normal because they are the opinions of people who literally eat dogshit.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 01 March, 2020, 07:10:28 PM
BristolLive names and shames some folk who made particularly abusive comments.

https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/abuse-threats-made-greta-thunberg-3897936
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 03 March, 2020, 07:58:54 PM
The latest Project Drawdown report is out!

What follows is an overview of climate solutions in hand—now, today—to reach Drawdown and begin to come back into balance with the planet’s living sys- tems. These solutions are tools of possibility in the face of a seemingly impossible challenge. They must not remain the domain of specialists or select groups. Widespread awareness and understanding of climate solutions is vital to kindle agency and effect change worldwide, across individual, community, organiza- tional, regional, national, and global scales. People and institutions of all kinds, in all places, have roles to play in this great transformation, and the solutions in these pages are a synthesis of collective wisdom and collec- tive action unfolding around the globe.


https://www.drawdown.org/drawdown-framework/drawdown-review-2020
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 08 March, 2020, 10:00:00 AM
Wow, this is an amazing website!

We know scientists are warning us we’re racing towards a climate change cliff edge, as we’re not reducing CO2 emissions anywhere near fast enough, but how do they FEEL about this?

The website collects handwritten notes from scientists the world over about how they feel about their own findings, and the collection is incredibly powerful.

Fear, anger, betrayal, optimism, support, care - all the emotions, all around what the human race collectively faces.

Haves a look:

https://www.isthishowyoufeel.com/this-is-how-scientists-feel.html
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 12 March, 2020, 12:24:02 AM
Something positive for a change - a fantastic book that can be enjoyed by everyone:

Cranky Uncle versus Climate Change!

This is a review of the paperback, not the Kindle edition.  I would strongly recommend getting the paperback - it is beautiful!

When I ordered this book I wasn’t expecting the astounding quality, humour, inventiveness and ease of reading! Or the volume! I was maybe expecting a fairly slim volume with perhaps some general climate change science in it, some funny cartoons, and maybe some examples of what climate science denial looks like.

I am so pleased at how my expectations have been blown out of the water - this book is absolutely superb, and deserves to be on the shelves at every school, university, home and workplace. 

Why is this so unique compared to all the other climate change literature out there?  I think the main difference is accessibility.  I’ve been working my way through several courses and books, and despite the best efforts of the authors it can be tough going for a lay person such as myself to follow the science.  And as for those who create debate about the science where there is none - what do you do about those folk??

What Dr Cook has created is quite special.  He has presented the science in straightforward terms in the text, but then used his cartoon and design experience to create visuals around the text that further accentuate the point, and often had me chortling as I read.  Sometimes the chortling was ‘laugh or cry’ as whichever way you cut it, the subject matter is still about the deadly changes we are seeing in our climate.

He uses the Cranky Uncle figure to represent climate science deniers beautifully, and with great feeling and humour.  I understand this figure may have come from Dr Cook’s own personal experience with a family member, but anyone who has spent any time on social media will have no doubt seen similar people making similar misguided clams about the science.

Also, the book can be read in a number of ways.  You can read it cover-to-cover, and follow the well structured layout of the science, the history, the scientific consensus, then the psychology of denial, and plenty of examples of the science versus the denial.  This never gets dull, as the subjects are structured into accessible bite-sized chunks.

Or, you could just open the book at a random page, and enjoy a snippet of the science alone with the great cartoons and fact-myth-fallacy fiction on the edge of many of the pages. The layout and content is so effective you could let the book fall open anywhere, and you’ll both learn and be amused by what you see. The book strangely makes it a joy to read and understand the situation we are in.

It is the design and creativity in putting across the science which makes this tome as enjoyable for a child as it is for an adult - it truly is THE climate science book for all ages, and for all levels of learning and understanding.  While a five year old may not understand the science, they certainly would enjoy the colourful and funny cartoons.  I can guarantee my 13 year old daughter will love this book, being at a place in her education where her scientific understanding is just taking off.  As an adult who has been away from education for decades I am finding this a hugely enjoyable way to understand the current course we are on, what we need to do to turn the situation around, and what we face in terms of he science denial, and how to tackle it.

Buy this book for you, buy it for your friends, buy it for your kids, buy it for your workplace, your schools, your libraries - get this on shelves everywhere.  Leave it out where people can see it, pick it up, flip though it, and be totally charmed and amused learning about the greatest challenge the human race has ever faced.

(https://i.imgur.com/4df6G7a.jpg)

(https://i.imgur.com/r2l46kA.jpg)

(https://i.imgur.com/rQp0XY6.jpg)

(https://i.imgur.com/7z6KHYD.jpg)



: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: sheridan 12 March, 2020, 12:46:45 PM
I'd not heard of the Blowfish Fallacy before - here's more information (apparently by the person who invented the term (https://theconversation.com/what-do-gorilla-suits-and-blowfish-fallacies-have-to-do-with-climate-change-72560)).
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 12 March, 2020, 02:36:52 PM
I'd not heard of the Blowfish Fallacy before - here's more information (apparently by the person who invented the term (https://theconversation.com/what-do-gorilla-suits-and-blowfish-fallacies-have-to-do-with-climate-change-72560)).

That article is written by the dude who wrote and drew [b[Cranky Uncle vs Climate Change[/b] - John Cook!
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 13 March, 2020, 11:04:09 AM
Well, that’s me told! :D

(https://i.imgur.com/CvAA5fa.jpg)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 14 March, 2020, 10:56:45 AM
Professor Katharine Hayhoe is in Edinburgh, and will be in a panel live-streamed at 7pm tomorrow.

Prof. Hayhoe is one of the world’s greatest communicators off climate science, so this will be worth a watch.


The Let’s Talk Climate Action at Edinburgh Castle on Sunday 15 March is now going to be livestreamed only.

---

Over the past 18 months, the dialogue on climate change has fundamentally shifted. Scotland has declared a climate emergency and we know that widespread action is required, across all of society.

But how do we inspire and encourage people to change the habits of a life time?

Historic Environment Scotland are delighted to welcome one of the world’s leading climate change communicators, Professor Katharine Hayhoe, and a panel of experts to Edinburgh Castle to hear their experiences of finding effective ways of communicating the climate crisis.

- Professor Katharine Hayhoe, Texas Tech University
- Matt Winning, UCL (University College London)
- Sara Crofts, The Institute of Conservation (Icon)
- Ewan Hyslop, Historic Environment Scotland

Following on from the launch of our own Climate Action Plan, join us in learning from these experts how they have used their areas of expertise to reach new audiences, changing hearts and minds along the way.

The event is free and will be livestreamed on the Historic Environment Scotland Facebook Page so you can tune in wherever you are!



https://facebook.com/events/s/lets-talk-climate-action/501100057475564/?ti=icl
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 15 March, 2020, 06:51:30 PM
The above starts in ten minutes!

She can tune in without a Facebook account on this link: https://www.facebook.com/HistoricEnvScotland/videos/199496484660638/
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 15 March, 2020, 06:59:28 PM
Nuts - it sounds like it has started already!
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 16 March, 2020, 10:06:22 AM
Well well well.   

I reminded folk not to take their eyes off the ball re climate change, and someone commented "One apocalypse at a time please".  What neither of us knew at the time is that a study shows climate change increases the risk of influenza outbreaks!

"It is believed that the continuing change in the Earth’s climate will affect the viral activity andtransmission of influenza over the coming decades. However, a consensus of the severity of the risk ofan influenza epidemic in a warming climate has not been reached. It was previously reported that thewarmer winter can reduce influenza epidemic caused mortality, but this relation cannot explain thedeadly influenza epidemic in many countries over northern mid-latitudes in the winter of 2017–2018,one of the warmest winters in recent decades. Here, we reveal that the widely spread 2017–2018influenza epidemic can be attributed to the abnormally strong rapid weather variability. Wedemonstrate, from historical data, that the large rapid weather variability in autumn can preconditionthe deadly influenza epidemic in the subsequent months in highly populated northern mid-latitudes;and the influenza epidemic season of 2017–2018 was a typical case. We further show that climatemodel projections reach a consensus that the rapid weather variability in autumn will continue tostrengthen in some regions of northern mid-latitudes in a warming climate, implying that the risk ofan influenza epidemic may increase 20% to 50% in some highly populated regions in the later 21st century."

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab70bc/pdf  
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 16 March, 2020, 06:37:01 PM
There’s a fantastic thread on Twitter from Prof. Hayhoe re climate change and how it affects the risk of influenza outbreaks like COVID-19.

https://twitter.com/khayhoe/status/1239583948126093312?s=21

TL:DR? Climate change is a threat/risk multiplier.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 19 March, 2020, 08:22:32 AM
Climate change - the rich are to blame.  A new study out shows the more well off we get, the more energy we consume, and the more emissions we cause:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51906530

Incidentally, the project leader of this study is well worth a follow on Twitter, particularly if you'd like direct access to the papers (which are normally behind an academic paywall) - @JKSteinberger.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 20 March, 2020, 01:52:32 PM
Meanwhile, locusts swarms have been seen in ten African countries, the largest the size of Luxembourg, as climate change creates exponential growth through breeding conditions, threatening food security of 25 million people:

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/mar/20/locust-crisis-poses-a-danger-to-millions-forecasters-warn
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 20 March, 2020, 03:25:55 PM
Here's a really good breakdown of the drive to plant trees in the UK from Carbon Brief - pros and cons, positives and pitfalls, and how this will affect climate change:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-how-will-tree-planting-help-the-uk-meet-its-climate-goals
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 07 April, 2020, 01:38:55 AM
Warmest January on record, Feb and March not far off. 2020 likely to be hottest year on record.

https://mashable.com/article/climate-change-2020-records/?europe=true
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 07 April, 2020, 09:21:08 AM
Earlier this year, scientists warned that the Great Barrier Reef could be on the brink of its most widespread bleaching event ever recorded. That fear has been realized.

Surveys conducted by scientists at Australia’s James Cook University and the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority show that a summer of extreme heat has caused the reef, which is a World Heritage Site, to suffer a mass bleaching of unprecedented scale. Corals from the far north to the southern tip of the 1,400 mile-long ecosystem are experiencing severe impacts.

It was also one of the reef’s worst mass bleaching episodes in terms of intensity, second only to 2016, which killed half of all shallow-water corals on the northern Great Barrier Reef.

- Maddie Stone, Capital Weather Gang, Washington Post, Apr 6, 2020

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/04/06/great-barrier-reef-coral-bleaching/
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 07 April, 2020, 06:04:43 PM
COVID and Climate Change:

Q&A: A Harvard Expert on Environment and Health Discusses Possible Ties Between COVID and Climate

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/11032020/coronavirus-harvard-doctor-climate-change-public-health
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 08 April, 2020, 07:38:57 AM
Noam Chomsky: 'In a couple of generations, organized human society may not survive.'

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/02/12/features/noam-chomsky-couple-generations-organized-human-society-may-not-survive-has-be
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 14 April, 2020, 02:02:54 AM
The latest drawdown review is out:

https://drawdown.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/Drawdown_Review_2020_march10.pdf
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 21 April, 2020, 10:31:29 AM
Meanwhile, a stark reminder/warning from Sir David Attenborough:

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/david-attenborough-life-planet-new-documentary-bbc-climate-crisis-coronavirus-a9472946.html


There is a massive amount I could be posting in this thread at the moment (Atmospheric CO2 reaches 417ppm which is highest in millions of years, Arctic temps above freezing, polar vortex doing weird things, jet stream all over the place, mega drought in West US, locust swarms in Somalia, warmest global winter/spring on record etc etc etc), but I’m worried about constantly bringing bad news to the forum. I’m like the Harbinger of Doom or something. 
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: TordelBack 21 April, 2020, 10:46:25 AM
Even agsinst all that, he worst news for me in all this is that you can't persuade or even legislate for the many of the world's worst per capita polluters, Americans, to change their lifestyles for a few months when they run the real immediate observable risk of the horrible deaths of their relatives and themselves, so what hope is there for the long game of responding to climate change.

Conversely, I'm amazed by the changes people have been capable of in this neck of the woods. If some fraction of this short-term adaptability can be converted to the long-term there's real potential.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 21 April, 2020, 11:07:06 AM
The US is rapidly headed towards failed state territory — at a far greater speed than the UK. I get the feeling only its constitution will keep the USA together now — the fact that it’s almost impossible for a state (or group of states) to break away. But the country feels the furthest from ‘united’ that it’s been in my lifetime.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 28 April, 2020, 10:20:44 AM
Game recommendation!!

‘Save the Earth: Climate Strike’ - new in App Store. Superb, but chilling!

This is a fantastic game in its own right - manage eco-projects around the world, renewable energy, protect different environments, and so on.

Educational - learn of probs facing countries - overfishing, threat of wildfires, CO2 polluters, etc.

£1.99 - a must have for you, family, friends, work colleagues etc. Challenge them to save the planet.

https://apps.apple.com/gb/app/save-the-earth-climate-strike/id1504760106
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 28 April, 2020, 10:24:57 AM
The U.K. has just beaten its record for generating electricity without leaning on coal!

(https://i.imgur.com/pCGw8sr.jpg)

We still have a way to go though. Belgium, Sweden, and Austria are now completely coal free when generating their electricity.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 28 April, 2020, 10:33:35 AM
This is good, but I’d be happier if we weren’t so heavily reliant on gas. There’s really no excuse for the UK’s current situation. But ideology trumps everything. (Perhaps I’m being naive, but I’d suggest we should mandate all new builds have solar by _law_, and strongly encourage power companies to fit old builds with solar as well. In tandem, dramatically ramp up tidal and wind. Beyond that, back with modern nuclear as a stop-gap until storage from renewables becomes viable. Natch, this doesn’t work out because Tories want fossil, or nuclear at a pinch, and progressives/Greens are vehemently anti-nuclear and argue we should just change our habits to accept regular brownouts and possibly also blackouts. That’ll be fun when everyone’s food goes off.)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 29 April, 2020, 04:51:40 PM
Yeah, maintaining existing nuclear as stopgap is essential, but at the moment it is far cheaper per Gwh to build solar farms and windfarms than it is to build nuclear, plus they can be built in a fraction of the time it tales to build nuclear. 

So regardless of any complaints around nuclear waste and accidents, it just isn't economically feasible to build any more nuclear reactors. 

I can't see us getting off gas any time soon because a) North Sea gas and all that entails and b) deals with Russia re imported gas which will stay flowing for as long as the Tories (and particularly Johnson) are in power.

That said, Scotland is trying a push to get gas boilers up and down the country replaced with electric ones within a couple of decades, which is an impressive target.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 04 May, 2020, 09:43:43 PM
Sea level rise may consign the planned UK site for two large nuclear reactors to vanish beneath the waves.

- Paul Brown, Climate News Network, Apr 28, 2020

https://climatenewsnetwork.net/sea-level-rise-threatens-uk-nuclear-reactor-plans/
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 04 May, 2020, 09:48:58 PM
Wales is planning to recreate natural woodland that stretches the entire length of the country.

https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/wales-is-building-national-forest-to-span-the-length-of-the-country/#.XrB-omwFv6r.whatsapp
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 05 May, 2020, 10:44:53 AM
If only there was a way to figure out if personal changes could slash emissions fast. Like, what if we all stayed home for a couple months or something... Would that help?

Turns out the answer is, largely, no. Climate change is an institutional problem.

https://grist.org/climate/the-world-is-on-lockdown-so-where-are-all-the-carbon-emissions-coming-from/
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 17 May, 2020, 11:07:35 AM
A coal mine in South Tyneside that has been abandoned since 1932 will be transformed into a green energy heating system as part of a new £7 million renewable energy plan.

https://electrek.co/2020/05/08/coal-mine-south-tyneside-england-geothermal-heating-system/
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 17 May, 2020, 06:13:19 PM
This is a brilliant graphic about disinformation, and how to recognise it!


(https://www.klimafakten.de/sites/default/files/downloads/fliccdisinformation101jpg-2000px.jpg)
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: JayzusB.Christ 17 May, 2020, 06:32:20 PM
That's excellent, SM. I have a feeling we'll have to refer back to this a few times in the future.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 19 May, 2020, 12:44:39 PM
That's excellent, SM. I have a feeling we'll have to refer back to this a few times in the future.

Aye - it’s methodology used to pick apart climate denial on social media, but also very useful for the disinformation re COVID19 that’s flying about.


Two things from me today:

Bad news

The cyclone in the Bay of Bengal is breaking all sorts of records. This is very bad news for Bangladesh and a large chunk of India:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/19/asia/super-cyclone-amphan-india-banglash-intl-hnk/index.html


Good news

The U.K. rewilding project is pushing ahead. Have a read here, and sign up for updates. There are also jobs going, such as a Network Development Lead :

https://www.rewildingbritain.org.uk/jobs/network-development-lead

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 27 May, 2020, 04:56:47 PM
It's pretty bloody hot in Cardiff today.  It's likely because we're sat on the fringes of a massive heat anomaly in Siberia.

(https://i.imgur.com/Dy56tNB.jpg)


Apologies for the shitty pic, but you get the idea.  Over the last few months there have been areas in the Arctic Circle 10 deg C higher than average, and in many cases well above frozen! 

It's currently causing waves of alarm, and causing some headlines, although not enough given the sheer scale/enormity, and threat of the anomaly. This is so far from normal it is freaking a shitload of scientists out. Also, it is wiping out flora and fauna, plus bringing wildfire season forward in a big way.

Here are a couple of articles which explain what is happening.

Washington Post:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/05/22/siberia-heat-wave/


The Barent Observer:

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic-ecology/2020/05/red-alert-northern-siberia-heat-shocks-threaten-life-tundra


Eye on the Arctic

https://www.rcinet.ca/eye-on-the-arctic/2020/05/26/red-alert-for-northern-siberia-as-heat-shocks-threaten-tundra-life/




Climate change, folks. It is right here, right now. We’ve been relatively lucky compared to many parts of the world so far, even considering the extreme weather events such as the extraordinary precipitation at the start of the year, and the record-breaking warm winter, and heatwave last summer.

Our ‘luck’ is about to run out.

: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 29 May, 2020, 10:39:34 AM
Honestly, I had no idea what was going on until I saw your picture. I’d assumed we were caught between the usual battle of northern air and African/Spanish air, with the jet stream having for once got stuck above Scotland rather than across the Channel. That this is hot air coming across from Siberia is terrifying.

I’ve been enjoying the weather, but noticing May has been dry as a bone in this area. We had a couple of torrential downpours, but that was about it. It also felt like we had no spring. It was like a switched flickered between winter and summer a few times and then settled on the latter.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: shaolin_monkey 30 May, 2020, 08:05:54 PM
Aye. It seems winter might now just be a really wet autumn in January.
: Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
: IndigoPrime 30 May, 2020, 09:47:20 PM
It was very cold around here. It’s been years since we had the heating on deep into May. Still, normal service reportedly resumes next week as we head into a drab June.