The Political Thread

[Tjm86]

I would say that the biggest problem with this whole referendum is that it is a complex and nuanced issue that requires a constructive and well reasoned campaign.  Unfortunately the political classes in this country would not know where to begin with this type of campaign.  As usual both sides are resorting to sensationalism and scare mongering, mainly because this is all they know.  The few sensible remarks get drowned out.

On the plus side the EU provides economic opportunities, regulation for the protection of consumers and employees (and some would argue at the same time employers), freedom of movement for those that want it, economic support for deprived regions, protection for industry (albeit poorly implemented with the help of our government).  Provides another level of legal redress in some instances.  I'm not completely sold on the 'helps keep the peace' argument.

On the negative side the EU costs money (whether we are actually net losers or winners is clearly an issue of contention), causes conflict and controversy when individual nations have to adopt rules and laws that run counter to long standing sensibilities (metrification, votes for prisoners), increases movement from member states with poorer economies and places pressure on destination nations.

Being physically disconnected gives us a different perspective in this country on EU issues.  Living and working in Germany near the Dutch / Belgian border years ago the benefits were real and tangible to many of those around us.  Our insular nature doesn't exactly help us.  Our engagement with the EU hasn't really helped us either.

I'm not 100% sure which way to vote if I'm completely honest.  Personally I do believe that the benefits outweigh the costs but at the same time I also think that we are squandering the opportunity that the EU provides.  I'm not sure that the worst fears of the naysayers of BREXIT will come true but I would be very surprised if, having voted to leave, we find ourselves having an easy ride of things at the negotiating table.

[Professor Bear]

Always presenting racism as being how the Leave argument is framed will just make Brexiters keep their opinions to themselves until the vote, thus missing the chance to debate with/sway them.

My initial impulse was to vote Leave, but immigration wasn't ever a factor in the decision - the EU now generating secret legislation to avoid public oversight is arguably enough to be concerned about, especially when that legislation specifically negates the stuff in the Pro column for Remain, like human/workers' rights, environmental protections and health/safety standards.

[Tjm86]

- the EU now generating secret legislation to avoid public oversight is arguably enough to be concerned about,

Yep TTIP has to be the biggest home goal of the last few years.  That said, whilst there is support within the bureaucracy, there is a massive groundswell of opposition to it, including amongst MP's / MEP's of certain parties.  Considering that TTIP is a neoliberal' wet dream, is it reasonable to assume that we will be safe from the worst excesses if we leave under the current government?

[TordelBack]

'Morning TB, I would have no problem with that at all, with all the historical connections between those countries it would seem a logical thing to d

Which is what I was getting at. Our attitudes to who is welcome are contingent on our shared history. All borders are artificial, even La Isla Britannia extends her boundaries overseas. Where we draw the line - or want to draw the line - is a matter of preference (for now - not very  much later we won't have a choice), be it street, postcode, county, country or continent. The countries within the EU share common minimum standards for social, democratic and economic aspects,  as set out in the Copenhagen Criteria. Those criteria effectively set the EU's bounds. Arguably the economic ball has been dropped (or professionally fouled), but for pretty low values of 'decent, modern, progressive', the social basis of our Union is sound. Thus within the EU, citizens enjoy broadly equal rights and equal freedom of movement.  We have a shared, miserable, history and rather better culture, just as we on these islands do. The argument being made - repeatedly - on the Leave side is that we don't, that Europeans are a teeming, rapacious, parasitic Other. There's only one term for that: xenophobia.

[Hawkmumbler]

Couldn't agree more, El Tordelback. All countries are superficial boundaries and false senses of nationalism and patriotism are just veiled excuses to justify racism and duscrimination.


*Say's Zac as he sit on a beach on an off shore tax heaven stuck in the 1950's.

[Old Tankie]

But I'm not saying that TB, there are perfectly reasonable reasons for wanting to leave the EU.

[Dandontdare]

At times, I actually feel quite sorry for people on the Brexit side who are trying to fashion reasoned arguments, because they're being drowned out by racist idiots, including those like Farage and Johnson at the very top.)

Indeed, and I also feel sorry for those who want to remain who would like our leaders (from all parties|) to start making some positive arguments about staying rather than "if we leave we're all DOOMED"

[TordelBack]

But I'm not saying that TB, there are perfectly reasonable reasons for wanting to leave the EU.

Wasn't saying you were, Tankie. But plenty have. And you're right, there are reasonable arguments for leaving the EU. i don't think they remotely outweigh the arguments for staying in, but there you go.  Unfortunately lies, bombast and hyperbole in the service of personal political advantage seem to have replaced almost all rational debate.

[IndigoPrime]

What Tordelback said.

Tankie: Regarding names, I wasn't referring to you, specifically, but more people I know (whether personally or from long-standing real-world connections online). Inevitably, for all those people, it's always come down to immigration and mostly a misunderstanding of immigration. (i.e. that once the EU borders are closed, job done. The UK will be amazing again! Etc.) It's pretty clear you're not thinking along those lines, as you've repeatedly said here. If you want to PM, that's entirely up to you.

Tjm86: From everything I've read across a range of newspapers (FT/Times/Daily Mail/Mirror/Guardian/etc.), online, and elsewhere in print, I'd agree that both sides are slinging shit at each other. But I don't see this as even. In the official leaflet, it's notable that none of the exit stuff is sourced. All the arguments are essentially just froth. By contrast, the remain side had one overt piece of nebulous crap, a couple of things that could have done with sourcing (even though they'd been all over the news that week), and five things directly sourced. And this continues: scientists; educators; business leaders; world leaders. The majority are all in favour of remain, which either means we're being trolled by the world's largest conspiracy (and that, despite being 'powerless', Downing Street is somehow the puppet master for the entire world), or, perhaps, there's that aspect of most of our friends and allies saying: "Don't do something really stupid."

I'm not completely sold on the 'helps keep the peace' argument.

I suspect there's something of an exaggeration there, but since the bones of the EU were formed, war has ceased between its members and governments have become less extreme, in the main. Whether that would have happened anyway is the obvious counterpoint.

I would be very surprised if, having voted to leave, we find ourselves having an easy ride of things at the negotiating table.

This is what gets me, the ongoing Brexit mob arguing it'll all be fine, because BRITAIN and FIFTH BIGGEST ECONOMY. So what? In manufacturing, we import more than we export. But in services, we export a whole lot more than we import. London could suffer. A rough ride seems likely, given that the EU will want to send a message. But even if we put that aside, what is the best possible deal we can hope for? A free trade agreement that still places tariffs on services? We certainly won't get full access to the open market without a Norway-style deal, and so that has to be off the table for both sides. Naturally, the exit campaign continues to serve nebulous and vague comments about this, using the 'free trade' wording fudge. That's not good enough. (As for the visa question, "we don't know" also isn't good enough. But then of course we don't know. What we do know is we don't need one now. Presumably that's not a reason to vote in for many, sadly.)

Professor Bear: I don't see how the UK is protected from TTIP by leaving the EU. The Tories are wholeheartedly in favour of this kind of legislation. Whatever offer the EU gets will be through its collective bargaining power, on being an economy on par with the USA. By contrast, most rankings set our economy as around a fifth of the size of the USA's. On that basis, anything we negotiate alone will find the UK having to more readily accept what it's offered, purely on the basis of having far less power. It's also notable that TTIP is stirring up opposition in the EU, most notably in France, and so staying might actually be safer to avoid ending up in part of a TTIP-style deal, if not TTIP itself. (And the main concern appears to be standards and the NHS, the latter of which should in theory now be protected, and the former of which will slide if the UK goes it alone anyway.)

EDIT: One possible place of 'safety' on voting out would be if we vote out and end up with a significant change of government in 2020. But those people who are banking on Brexit causing a snap election and Corbyn rising to power in October are deluded in the extreme. If Brexit happens, Corbyn's fucked, every progressive party will lick its wounds, and we'll without doubt see the Tories in power at the very least until 2025, and probably until 2030—and it'll be the worst Tories at the top, too.

[Old Tankie]

Hi IndigoPrime  What you and TB are saying could well be correct, after all, what do I know.  I'm a 59 year old retired, disabled bloke, proud father of a comic book artist son, living in a little 2-bedroom bungalow on the outskirts of the Fens, and am an expert on nothing!  I just wish both sides of the argument would calm down, so that people could make informed choices.

[IndigoPrime]

While we disagree on which path to take, I wholeheartedly agree with that particular sentiment. I have no love for the bulk of the remain politicians. They too often spout gibberish and aren't much better than the Leave mob. But then we get the 'news' we deserve, I suppose. Otherwise all of the coverage would be akin to Nicholas Barr's piece on why he's voting to remain, despite aligning with Hague on the EU as a whole (and, presumably, 'leave' equivalents) rather than a shouting match.

[Dandontdare]

Nicholas Barr's piece on why he's voting to remain, despite aligning with Hague on the EU as a whole (and, presumably, 'leave' equivalents) rather than a shouting match.

Useful link, I'll be quoting that next time the BBC comments section goes in to meltdown!

[Tjm86]

What Tordelback said.
In the official leaflet, it's notable that none of the exit stuff is sourced. All the arguments are essentially just froth.

TBH I've come to pretty much the same conclusion.  Places like 38 degrees help as well, checking the facts and showing where the statements stand.  What is worrying though is that people are listening.

By contrast, the remain side had one overt piece of nebulous crap, a couple of things that could have done with sourcing [ ... ] The majority are all in favour of remain, which either means we're being trolled by the world's largest conspiracy [ ... ] or, perhaps, there's that aspect of most of our friends and allies saying: "Don't do something really stupid."

Again this is something that has got me wondering as well.  Bearing in mind this is the same crowd that pretty much missed 2008, it is still worth considering what they are saying.  Granted markets don't like unpredictability and the simple truth is that no one really has a clue what the true cost of BREXIT could be but still there does come a point when you have to stop and think "What are they so worried about?  What does that mean to me?"

Granted that the effects aren't uniform across the nation but it seems at times that immigration is a convenient excuse for wage depression and job insecurity.  Yes there are some areas where immigration has a significant impact but the fact of the matter is that if you have the wherewithal and self motivation to travel that far in search of a better life then you aren't going to waste that opportunity.  Conversely there are enough in this country that have an over developed sense of entitlement that could do with a rocket up there back side (unfortunately I teach quite a few of them).

[they are] interested in two things and two things only: making you afraid of it and telling you who's to blame for it. That, ladies and gentlemen, is how you win elections.

(or in this case, a referendum ... but it worked last year)

[The Legendary Shark]

The Eurosceptic's Handbook: 50 live issues in the Brexit debate.

[IndigoPrime]

Bearing in mind this is the same crowd that pretty much missed 2008, it is still worth considering what they are saying.

Well, it's more than that. It's economists and scientist and world leaders and businesspeople and creatives, among others. But if we limit the naysayers to economists, you're right that most missed 2008's meltdown. And it's possible that the UK could somehow benefit from being outside the EU. My question is this: is that likely? We know what the status quo is, but don't know what would come next. And there are no deals that could be struck with the EU that would fully satisfy the Brexit mob and keep the EU happy. So I don't see anything beyond a lose-lose scenario for the UK and the EU (which will probably have shockwaves that will head worldwide, screwing everyone—after which point, the UK's not going to be overly popular). It's also notable that all the countries Brexit is apparently saying we should deal with instead of the EU are saying to stay in too. China wants the UK as a bridge, as does the USA. Hell, even Canada and Australia does. From an economic standpoint, we're really well positioned right now, but won't be if we vote out.

What does that mean to me?

I suspect few people are really asking that. They see economics as an abstract. But if the economy contracts, funding is cut or taxes go up. With a Tory government, you can guess in which direction they will head.

[they are] interested in two things and two things only: making you afraid of it and telling you who's to blame for it. That, ladies and gentlemen, is how you win elections.

(or in this case, a referendum ... but it worked last year)

Quite. And Boris and Gove are now fighting this as if it's a GE. The others haven't really caught on to that yet. Cameron needs to fight back, and Corbyn needs to throw his hat into the ring.

The Eurosceptic's Handbook: 50 live issues in the Brexit debate.

"Standing back from the spin and hyperbole of Project Fear"

Yeah. I'm sure someone using the phrase 'Project Fear' will have written the epitome of an unbiased read.