The Political Thread

[Dandontdare]

It's a complex topic that I can't really be arsed going into here, which is why I said "a discussion to be had" and left it at that.

If you don't think it even warrants discussion, fair enough

[Jim_Campbell]

It's a complex topic that I can't really be arsed going into here, which is why I said "a discussion to be had" and left it at that.

Statistically, honestly, it's not an issue. There are certainly arguments for looking at postal vote fraud but the arguments about voter ID as a means of combatting in-person voter fraud are almost exclusively advanced from the right as cover for voting suppression tactics.

I get that you don't want to get into the nitty-gritty of it, and that's fine, but I thought that needed to be clarified.

[JayzusB.Christ]

I'm kind of fishing for good news here, but are the Republicans really in that bad a shape?   I'm pretty sure that if it hadn't been for the pandemic, Trump would have very comfortably bagged himself a second term.  Also, if anything should happen to Joe Biden, and of course I hope it doesn't, that puts Kamala Harris in the hotseat.  While it really shouldn't be an issue to vote a miced-race woman in, I think it probably would be.

[Jim_Campbell]

I get that you don't want to get into the nitty-gritty of it, and that's fine, but I thought that needed to be clarified.

To clarify my annoying clarification — I'm not suggesting you're supportive of the right, DDD. One of the things the right has become alarmingly good at is getting their 'talking points' amplified by seemingly moderate/reasonable people. This is one of those things — pull at the thread for long enough and it almost always unravels back to some person or organisation on the right making a lot of noise about an issue with no statistical significance.

[IndigoPrime]

are the Republicans really in that bad a shape?

Not really. They've briefly lost control. It'll take a small miracle for them not to win back at least one branch of government at the next elections, and there's a reasonable chance they could take the House too.

[Tjm86]

Am I the only one becoming increasingly disturbed at the direction of travel in this country right now?  We have one of the worst governments in living memory (if not even longer ...), wide scale corruption and nepotism, repression of fundamental rights to protest and potentially even to vote, police brutality and intimidation and now a report that the UK should be held up as an exemplar in international race relations?

I'm beginning to think that I've been reading dystopian fiction for so long that I'm now hallucinating it ... 

[IndigoPrime]

No. We now live in an authoritarian-oriented country run by an executive with a scant regard for democracy and constitutional matters. We're not China just yet, but we are well on our way to becoming another Hungary.

The UK is also an excellent example of how these things can all happen in tiny steps. The London mayoral election is on the way, and polling suggests Khan will walk it—possibly even taking it on first preferences alone, but the Tories are well aware that London is lost forever once you take into account second preferences. So they're going to switch the vote to FPTP, which will at the very least marginalise Green/LD and make it a two-party anti-Labour battle that's easier for them to spin.

Again, this is why Labour needs to see the danger and think long-term—something it's been unable to do since the late 1990s. Without cooperating with other parties and extensive electoral reform, our future is a Tory boot stamping on anything progressive, forever, and constantly gaslighting us about everything.

Right now, though, polling points to a horrible situation: a sustained uptick for the Greens (which under FPTP will be a waste), a continued dismal showing for the Libs (which, whatever you think about them, are the best option in a slew of England seats to combat the Tories), and Labour mostly taking points from the Libs rather than the Tories. Under PR, that would be OK. Under FPTP, it's going to be another shitshow.

Here's hoping things change before the next GE, but I'm not holding my breath.

[IAMTHESYSTEM]

Yeah, the Neo-Medievalist future is almost upon us now. Oligarchies, unaccountable Politicians and lobbyists, plus a Laizze-Faire attitude to everything means bad news all around.

[Tjm86]

It feels more like politicians have given up trying to kid us now as well.  The antics of ministers, ex-ministers and anyone vaguely related to them isn't even defended any more.  They just mouth some platitude and wait for the press to move on to the next 'celebrity' gossip.

The big question though surely has to be what is going to happen once they reach the point where they can't keep on with the pandemic response we've had for the past year.  When they do decide that they need to do something about the national debt we all know where the bill is going to land ...

[IndigoPrime]

The chancellor's budget was a delaying tactic. So we will probably see the following:

- Ongoing framing of all criticism as unpatriotic and/or against a service (vs the govt), such as the NHS
- Ongoing gaslighting and rewriting of history
- Blaming the EU for all economic issues that can't be blamed on COVID
- Framing the EU's 'new rules' as wrecking UK trade (and ignoring UK unilateral decision to leave single market)
- Ongoing erosion of democracy (more elections switch to FPTP; boundaries redrawn; voter ID requirement)
- Headlines continuing to be more important than actions — policy about what you say rather than do
- Further consolidation of power within the executive
- A gradual shift from policing by consent to crackdowns on anything the govt doesn't want
- Consistently keeping the culture war fire burning
- A GE around 2023 before the chancellor's payments come due, which is the best moment for the Tories to capitalise (people will have cash in their pockets; the economy will be recovering) before it all goes to shit again in 2024 (which will be blamed on something other than the Tories)

All this is beatable. But the press needs to stop prizing headlines over stories, and every political party to the left of the Tories needs to figure out how to work collectively to oust the Tories in England and Wales, ensure there's no Tory comeback in Scotland, and minimise the DUP in Northern Ireland. The numbers are there, but, right now, the will is not.

[Funt Solo]

I'm kind of fishing for good news here, but are the Republicans really in that bad a shape?   I'm pretty sure that if it hadn't been for the pandemic, Trump would have very comfortably bagged himself a second term.  Also, if anything should happen to Joe Biden, and of course I hope it doesn't, that puts Kamala Harris in the hotseat.  While it really shouldn't be an issue to vote a miced-race woman in, I think it probably would be.

C4 News did a series of pieces on this that were fascinating. First off - there was a huge dedication to voter suppression in the election that Trump won. It was targeted, it used big data, it used Facebook tools. It sorted everyone into camps - and one of those was the "undesirables" (memory failing a bit - but it was either exactly that word or one that is synonymous with it) that the Republicans targeted with negative ads against Clinton - pointing out to black voters that she'd said negative things in the past about black men. I mean, she had - but it's still propaganda with a clear agenda.

Anyway - it worked. C4 followed the stats and found that far fewer people who had previously voted Dem for Obama came out to vote at all.

The Reps put in this massive effort because if they don't - if there's a strong voter turnout - the numbers are against them. Remember, Trump still lost the popular vote in that first election.

Reason: the big cities are generally Dem. They're growing in size with an influx of Dem-type voters - college educated people and immigrants. As they grow, the Rep-base (farmers) shrinks.

Summary: they wouldn't be using voter suppression tactics if they could win a fair fight.

[IndigoPrime]

All of which is true, and yet it's not a fair fight and the opposition needs to recognise that and respond accordingly. We have the same here. You need fewer votes to elect a Tory in the UK than a Labour MP and far, far more to elect a Lib Dem. The only Green that's ever going to be elected is Caroline Lucas—and even she's gone (despite her massive majority) when Brighton Nav is cynically hacked in half during the boundary reforms. A sensible opposition would be thinking it's a bit shit 55–65% of the vote isn't enough to oust the Tories and working to deal with that. Instead, Labour and the Libs scrap in England and the Tories win, even though the fight is rigged. And that's before you even dig into shitty advertising, the mostly right-wing press, etc.

[Funt Solo]

Race report: 'UK not deliberately rigged against ethnic minorities'

I can imagine this: you take your clipboard around all the government departments and say "Oh, yeah, hi - listen, are you a racist? No? Do you have any openly racist policies written down anywhere? No? Thanks - yah!"

Government: "See? There's nothing to worry about."

A policeman, later: "OUT OF THE CAR! NOW! Bit of a flash motor for your sort, isn't it? Bit suspicious..."

(This last part happened so many times last year on C4 News that I started to think we'd all teleported to the fucking 80s.)

[Dandontdare]

Whilst there is a discussion to be had about proof of ID

Given the statistically insignificant indicidence of in-person voter fraud,* there really isn't. The main reason being that it's a fantastically inefficient means of influencing the result of an election, which is why no one does it.

*Both here and in the US. I mean, seriously, it's in the tens of thousandths of one percent of votes cast.

I've been stewing about this for days Jim, and composed all kinds of sarcastic, humourous or passive aggressive responses, but the bottom line is

Disagree all you want, correct me, debate me me but do not ever tell me what to talk about.

[Funt Solo]

That hardly seems like a sensible topic.






I'll get me coat...