The Political Thread

[IndigoPrime]

I broadly agree with DAG, but fear things aren't that simple. Every fuck-up will be spun as the EU's fault, and that they are somehow still in control. We lack decent media right now to take the government to task. I can only hope that changes.

[Jim_Campbell]

I think a lot of Leave voters will take it as read that Brexit is "done". They didn't bother informing themselves of the inconvenient nitty-gritty at any other point during the process, so I don't think they'll start now. The Tories will certainly try to spin this as "delivering Brexit" and I'm sure their friends in the broadcast and print media will repeat this message as uncritically as everything else that comes out of the Conservative press office.

If this goes off the front page, away from the glare of constant coverage, I suspect a lot of cans will get kicked down the road and a lot of red lines will quietly go away.

Notice that Rees-Mogg has been deleting every Tweet on his timeline that claimed "no deal was better than a bad deal". The ERG doesn't have the luxury of being a protest group within the Tories any more — they own this now. It's in the Tories' interests to give the impression that this is all done and then try to steer a far less disastrous course when they think no one is looking.

[TordelBack]

Every single thing, from pet passports to fishing quotas, from border tension in Ireland to illegal immigrants in lorries, every single thing will be ascribed to the vengeance of the defeated EU. I think this will more than compensate the new Tory party electorally for any and all losses incurred through economic implosion etc. I hope I'm wrong, and the processes described above play out., but right now I can see unemployment figures being run under a banner of 'Casualties of EU Blitz on Britain' ad infinitum.

[IndigoPrime]

Every cost will be ignored or "worth it". Every minor victory from a baseline of zero (rather than our existing position) will be spun. My guess is the UK at best now will be an Italy – a once-major player that will decline to the point of being a barely relevant regional power. Although for the average Joe, it may be more like in Russia, where new norms (worse food; austerity; an effective serf system) become ingrained.

The one hope we have from an electoral standpoint is Labour, but that seems... far-fetched. I'd dearly love to see Starmer or Nandy give the Tories a kicking at the next GE and propose something better (association agreement; even rejoining) at GE+1. But I fear we'll get an RLB win, more 'head in the sand' politics, and two more Tory wins. (And over in the world of the Lib Dems, Davey will win, and they'll act all surprised when another couple of stellar local election performances, including possibly securing several more entire councils, subsequently turn into just one extra seat at a general election.)

[JayzusB.Christ]

Can't find that link I'm afraid, Jim. I really want to read the article though
.

Hmm. Sorry about that! The hyperlink on the word "here" at the end of my post seems to be working for me, but here's the full URL:

https://davidallengreen.com/2020/01/the-discharge-of-the-mandate-the-real-significance-of-brexit-day-31st-january-2020/

Oops, sorry - my fault.   . Never spotted the blue 'here' on my phone's little cracked screen.

[Professor Bear]

The one hope we have from an electoral standpoint

The only election in the last ten years that hasn't had centrists crawling out of the woodwork to denounce the result as invalid because of Russian interference has been a Tory landslide delivered via a sharp increase in postal ballots, a string of purdah violations, and a political editor of the BBC currently under criminal investigation for reporting on the result ahead of time - and we haven't got to the redrawing electoral boundaries stage yet, or the packing of the House of Lords with Tory peers.
Anyway I think we can stick a fork in British democracy now.

This is a country with an electorate so thick that it believed that the one person who can counter the threat to national security posed by the Russians is a guy who has been described as a security threat by MI6 because he keeps having secret meetings with Russians, who regularly receives money from Russia, and oh yeah, is literally called Boris.  This is not a democracy, it's a Radio 4 sitcom.

[radiator]

I think a lot of Leave voters will take it as read that Brexit is "done". They didn't bother informing themselves of the inconvenient nitty-gritty at any other point during the process, so I don't think they'll start now. The Tories will certainly try to spin this as "delivering Brexit" and I'm sure their friends in the broadcast and print media will repeat this message as uncritically as everything else that comes out of the Conservative press office.

If this goes off the front page, away from the glare of constant coverage, I suspect a lot of cans will get kicked down the road and a lot of red lines will quietly go away.

Notice that Rees-Mogg has been deleting every Tweet on his timeline that claimed "no deal was better than a bad deal". The ERG doesn't have the luxury of being a protest group within the Tories any more — they own this now. It's in the Tories' interests to give the impression that this is all done and then try to steer a far less disastrous course when they think no one is looking.

I feel like it'll be the same story with Trump when he is finally out of office. Being as objective as I possibly can be, he has done very little to make the lives of his core supporters better in any tangible way - in many ways he has made them far worse with his awful tax policies, the destruction of environmental protections, the impact of his trade war of the farming community and the stripping away of healthcare.... And yet his term will inevitably be looked back on with great fondness and reverence by the majority of those who voted for him.

[IndigoPrime]

I half wonder whether the only way Trump will leave office is when he dies. He's already been testing the water of not pissing off after two terms.

[JayzusB.Christ]

I half wonder whether the only way Trump will leave office is when he dies. He's already been testing the water of not pissing off after two terms.

It's a worry alright. Acquittal is pretty much a certainty, as, in my view, is re-election.  His next project will involve working out how to stay there.

[Greg M.]

If it's good enough for Putin...

[Jim_Campbell]

It's a worry alright. Acquittal is pretty much a certainty, as, in my view, is re-election.  His next project will involve working out how to stay there.

With the Supreme Court now stacked with Republican appointees, and McConnell's determined effort to stuff all the lower levels of the judiciary with Republicans, there'll be no route for a legal challenge if Trump just announces he's not going in the event of an election loss.

[JayzusB.Christ]

Christ, that is terrifying.  I find myself reduced to a position of hoping his shitty junk food diet catches up with him.

[Jim_Campbell]

Christ, that is terrifying.  I find myself reduced to a position of hoping his shitty junk food diet catches up with him.

There have been something like 400 bits of legislation McConnell has refused to even make tine to debate since Trump has been in office. That's because he's done nothing but bulldoze judicial appointments through the Senate for the last three years.

[radiator]

Ol' Mitch 'Gravedigger of Democracy' McConnell.

[von Boom]

I half wonder whether the only way Trump will leave office is when he dies. He's already been testing the water of not pissing off after two terms.

Barring that Trump probably sees the office as hereditary now and expects to see a line of his fuckwit progeny filling the position from now until the end of time.