Day of Chaos 2: a.Covid-19 thread.

[shaolin_monkey]

If not now, when?

If we don't re-open schools and shops and travel and all that jazz now, when do we?
This is here. It is not going away. We need to accept that.

When?

I suggest we turn to the medical and scientific experts for that answer.

Here's two documents that will help with your question, both from the Associations of Directors of Public Health Health:

https://www.adph.org.uk/2020/05/adph-presidential-blog-a-time-for-steady-leadership-careful-preparation-and-measured-steps/

"The Government has set five tests, each of which must be regularly reviewed as restrictions are adjusted and eased. Here is our current assessment:

Firstly, the pressure on the NHS – and those that tirelessly and expertly work within it – has been significant but it has been able to cope with those who unfortunately need hospital treatment for the effects of COVID-19. The number of people in hospitals with COVID-19 is falling, and beds are available for those that require them.

Secondly, there must be a sustained and consistent fall in the daily death rate. While the first peak in deaths has passed, the downward trend is slow – particularly in care settings. Deaths are a measure of what happened roughly two weeks before – the effect of easing measures now will only become evident in two weeks.

The critical debate is about the third test – ensuring the rate of transmission of the infection continues decreasing to manageable levels (taken to mean R being well below 1). The rapid and multiple ways in which measures are being eased is likely to make it difficult to judge the cumulative impact on R. As we saw in March, R can go above 1 in a very short space of time – and once it does it can take many months to bring it back down. The room for manoeuvre is tight.

The fourth aspect, ensuring supply of tests and PPE is able meet future demand, remains an enormous challenge. PPE manufacturing and supply chains are stronger, but shortages are still being reported and it is not clear that supply can meet new demand as different parts of society, public services and the economy open. While testing capacity has undoubtedly increased, we are not yet confident that the current testing regime is sufficiently effective in getting the priority tests done and the results to where they are needed to enable swift action.

Finally, the fifth test. A second peak cannot be ruled out – whether it will overwhelm the NHS is an important question to ask. But perhaps the even bigger one is, do we really want the same number of deaths again? The scale to date represents an unimaginable tragedy and we must do everything possible to limit further loss of life.

The ADPH has argued that an effective contact tracing system is vital to keep R consistently below one. We set out a 'Statement of Principles' to outline what needs to be in place to make this work. "


TL:DR? Test/track/trace/quarantine - get R rate well below 1.


So here's what's required re getting that R under control - the 'Statement of Principles' mentioned above :


https://www.adph.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/ADPH-Statement-of-Principles-Contact-Tracing.pdf

As you can see, a long 'things to do' list, the majority of which we know the government is either not doing, or doing ineffectively.

So to come back to the question of 'when'? that unfortunately relies on what the government does next, but with over 1,500 new infections a day and our death rate going back up, the answer is definitely not 'now', or 'next week', and probably not even 'next month'.

At the end of the day, we need to avoid another 64,500 deaths.

[shaolin_monkey]

There's a great thread here from Nick Price at the ONS about how the excess death data, mentioned so often in the FT analysis, is pointing more and more to unrecorded COVID19.


https://twitter.com/nickstripe_ons/status/1268823005305733125?s=21

[Jim_Campbell]

There's a great thread here from Nick Price at the ONS about how the excess death data, mentioned so often in the FT analysis, is pointing more and more to unrecorded COVID19.


https://twitter.com/nickstripe_ons/status/1268823005305733125?s=21

I'm not being facetious, or detracting from your point in any way, but it's been obvious to anyone with a pocket calculator and a working knowledge of percentages that cases are massively under-reported in the UK.

I took a look at the numbers from The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control last week (I'm not doing the numbers again, because the point still stands).

Those numbers, using the official government stats gave a mortality rate ((No of Deaths/No of Cases)*100) of over 15%. There is literally no way that the mortality rate is 15% — the average for that whole table was 3.6%.

If we assume the UK mortality rate was actually 3.6% and that the fatality figure of ~37K was accurate, then a mortality rate of 3.6% would mean roughly 1.4M infections. Of course, that 3.6% number is still too high — other nations are almost certainly under-reporting cases, too.

Most qualified virologists whose opinion I've read seem to think the CV19 mortality rate is probably about 0.9%. If ~37K represented 0.9% of the total number of infections, then the total number of UK infections was about four million, compared to the ~267K confirmed cases the government had reported at that time.

Now, before someone comes along and says "Yes, but statistics are more complicated than that" — I know. My point is that the real number of infections could be 1M, it could be 4M — either is plausible working from the official death toll, which, in itself, is likely an under-estimate.

When some twat from the government stands at that podium every afternoon and talks about the 'R' number, remember that they have literally no idea what the 'R' number is because they have no idea what the actual number of infections is, and they can't conceivably know that until they're mass-testing the general population at random, whether they're symptomatic or not.

[shaolin_monkey]

Yep, 100% agree. But as you say, the problem has been proving that due to lack of testing. The Twitter thread I posted discusses how to extrapolate the actual number of COVID deaths without a positive COVID test having been attributed to that death.

While, as you say, it's possible to come to an overall conclusion with the help of a pocket calculator and the average deaths over the last ten years for Jan - May versus the same months this year, nailing the figures as closely as possible, and working out exactly which categories (age, gender, BAME etc) were affected and to what extent, is going to be immensely useful going forward.


On a related note, here's what the chief reporter at the New Scientist has to say about it all:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24632853-300-why-have-there-been-so-many-coronavirus-deaths-in-the-uk/

[IndigoPrime]

"Playing catch-up"

That's the key thing. Portugal saw what was going on next door, went "fuck that" and locked down pretty much right away. The UK saw a storm coming, and rather than take advantage of that two weeks by closing the borders (something that Brexiters seem to like yelling about for ages anyway) and temporarily blowing up the economy, we did... nothing. Oh, sorry—not true. We had a PM telling people to wash their hands, while boasting about shaking hands with everyone.

Of course, by that time, COVID was already here and in Portugal anyway. The difference is that our lot didn't respond. Even now, they're not. Masks on public transport? Great. But my local Facebook group had someone having a go at me about masks earlier, because the govt has _only_ said to use them on public transport, and so I _shouldn't_ be wearing one when shopping. Fuck that. And it displays what a shitshow our govt's comms still is.

[Definitely Not Mister Pops]

I expect the tories (Gove most likely) will try to tell us that the numbers are actually being overreported.

[shaolin_monkey]

Anyway, it's good to see everyone is working really hard to avoid a second wave, by keeping this first one going as long as possible,

[shaolin_monkey]

Another article from the British Medical Journal about the 'when' of easing lockdown.

Again, the medical profession is saying 'definitely not now', and again refers to the need for a cohesive national, localised, and community network of test and trace in place to avoid a horrendous second wave. They say categorically it is not in place yet. Some sources say it may not be in place until September.

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2202?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_term=hootsuite&utm_content=sme&utm_campaign=usage

[IndigoPrime]

I suspect it will never be in place. Figures will be spun about capacity while ignoring the numbers actually being tested.

[The Doctor Alt 8]

Adrian's tribute to the NHS... His Gothic set of armor set up for people to view. Pity that I don't think anyone has noticed.

Currently he is in Hospital.

Nothing to do with Corvid but well he got a tooth absences. (when he lost a crown 5 weeks ago.) Instead of seeking emergency aid he carried on regardless until the inevitable infection. He went to see an emergency dentist who drained the abcess then told him to go to the hospital as they feared the swelling & drooping of one side of his face (the side with the bad tooth ) indicated that he had suffered a mini stroke.

He was taken away yesterday evening and MRI scans given.

Today he looks much better. His face has returned to normal. He is no longer in chronic pain with his tooth and there is no indication of a stroke

However he is undergoing further tests as they are unhappy that his heart is racing when it shouldn't.

I hope that this incident don't delay his much needed and long awaited for gall bladder removal operation... 

[TordelBack]

Aye,  fingers crossed Doc.

[The Doctor Alt 8]

Thanks. I was somewhat worried last night. Stupid logic brain versus the mini "worst case" thoughts.

[shaolin_monkey]

This animated graph shows COVID19 leaping up the charts of worldwide mortality rates for different reasons:

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2562261/

[TordelBack]

Over on Twitter,  a former lupine Boarder who I follow mainly for his antique hunting and vernacular architecture interests (and just cos he's a nice fellow) is many posts deep into a confident discussion of how US infection numbers are fake because they represent ALL coronaviruses and not just Covid-19.

He's a bright lad, so how did we (collectively) end up in a situation where someone like him is so ready to believe any dangerous nonsense he reads online?  How can someone have a hundred sources of info at their fingertips and somehow arrive at the unwavering belief that the US is crippled by 3.5 million (identified) cases of the common cold, with 45,000 new cases every day in June and 130,000 (notified) deaths.

How do we get past this point in human affairs?  Will we ever?

[TordelBack]

Well that went well.  I greatly upset the former boarder in question by referring to his tweets here. That wasn't my intention.