Day of Chaos 2: a.Covid-19 thread.

[paddykafka]

PS: Glad to hear that all is okay, DR X!

[IndigoPrime]

Well, mini-G is now back. My gut's been doing backflips all morning since. I guess the dice has been thrown now—and will be every day for the foreseeable future.

[JayzusB.Christ]

As a too-necessary venting practice,  I wrote a sub-sub-Swiftian 'A Modest Proposal' thing in the comments of a popular Irish news site, suggesting we come up with firm targets for Covid deaths and ICU admissions for groups based on their aged uselessness and/or existing sickliness and work towards those numbers as a clear roadmap for the stages of reopening.

Predictably the responses so far are mainly agreeing with me, or better yet  "I suspect you are being sarcastic, but I think it's a good idea anyway". We haven't changed much since 1729.

The Journal, I'm guessing - every day I tell myself I won't read the comments, read them anyway, and despair of my country.

[Professor Bear]

Newspaper website comments sections are where bots and algorithms are tested.  Most of those posting on them aren't human.

[Tjm86]

That figure rises even further when you visit the Mail or Express websites.

[TordelBack]

That figure rises even further when you visit the Mail or Express websites.

But you don't,  right?  You don't.

Can someone please explain to me the dominant belief I'm encountering that because we currently have a very low level of deaths we're doing something wrong. This isn't f*cking elephant repellent we're talking about.

When levels of infections get high,  they spread beyond the supposedly bulletproof to the vulnerable, through family,  carers,  medical staff and incidental contact. And then people start dying,  in numbers, and there's no going back. This is just a simple fact, with a huge amount of international evidence to back it up.

We're keeping deaths low: that's what we're supposed to be doing. It's worked.  It's working. The narrative now seems to be that this is misjudged, because those lives have no value.

[JOE SOAP]

6-8 weeks is when the deaths go up exponentially.

[TordelBack]

Indeed. I'd personally only give it 5 or 6 weeks before we see serious numbers. But we seem to have decided that this won't happen this time, for absolutely no reason other than we're completely fed up.

I took the Boy down to the Fortyfoot for an afterschool swim today, and it and Sandycove were jammed solid with the usual hardy ancients, sitting hip-to-hip with gym bodies with fresh fades, gaggles of schoolkids, families (including hypocritical us) and office types: not a hint of social distancing to be seen, copious warning signage ignored. A study in complacency and fatigue.

Once this thing is back in the community in quantity, nothing is going to stop it spreading to every part of society.

I have to believe a fundamental public deficency in simple maths is at play here; the alternative is that we're consciously deciding to let the untermenschen die for the betterment of the motherland

[Definitely Not Mister Pops]

I have to believe a fundamental public deficency in simple maths is at play here

No. Most people can understand "simple maths"*. It's the minefield of statistical obfuscation and demographic misinformation presented by humanities graduates who think they understand "simple maths" is the issue.

[Funt Solo]

I have to believe a fundamental public deficency in simple maths is at play here

Exponential growth bias: The numerical error behind Covid-19

The article points out that exponential growth bias effects lots of people, educated in math or otherwise. It seems like humans are just built to more readily understand linear growth models, so we slip into that way of thinking.

[Funt Solo]

Gullibility?

[Jim_Campbell]

The 7-day rolling average for new UK COVID cases is now over 1400/day, up almost 50% in two weeks. Yesterday, over 1700 new cases were recorded.

By comparison, on March 24th, when the schools were already closed and the pubs were ordered to shut, there were 1400 new cases. The effect, and it's impossible to believe there will be no effect, of re-opening the schools won't be seen in the figures for at least two weeks and the government is insisting that everyone goes back to their offices.

The death rate, however, remains very low, supporting reports that more cases are being detected amongst younger people (who, anecdotally at least, seem to have been less concerned about social distancing and avoiding mixing in large groups) but the danger remains that it will start to rise sharply if older and COVID-vulnerable people resume pre-COVID behaviours... which is exactly what the government is encouraging.

[TordelBack]

. It's the minefield of statistical obfuscation and demographic misinformation presented by humanities graduates who think they understand "simple maths" is the issue.

That's undoubtedly a big part of it, and these days it always seems to be, but does it even get as far as that for most?  I don't think many people are getting beyond a boiling-a-frog reaction to increasing numbers (plus the "healthy people [internalised as "me"] are fine").

Constantly referring to elevated numbers of suicides, cancer deaths etc. (awful, please resource services properly) as if they behave statistically the same way as an infectious disease with frequently asymptomatic presentation and up to two weeks incubation... It's just crazy to think that people en-masse can be befuddled by what's essentially the rice-on-a-chessboard trick.

The most confounding thing is that the relative success here in getting numbers down in the Spring is used as ammunition against public health measures in the Autumn. I always thought the recidivism of both Pharaoh and the Israelites in Exodus was deeply implausible: they've seen the reality of God's power, but they seem to keep forgetting and going right back to pissing Him off. I'm now reappraising the pedagogic value of these particular myths.

We accept that we have to live with this for years to come, but can't we be sensible about it?

EDIT: Just read Funt's link and most of the above is covered there. Apologies.

[The Legendary Shark]

Outdoor learning reaches the parts classrooms can't Why Can't We Just Have Class Outside?

[The Legendary Shark]

Sorry, that first link doesn't work properly so you'll have to pick the article out of the rest when you get there.