Day of Chaos 2: a.Covid-19 thread.

[IndigoPrime]

I find that bizarre. When I was in the current equivalent of year 9, the people in my form were split across four different bands of maths and French, and three in science and English. Quite how teachers are currently dealing with that, I’ve no idea then. Also, my school had specialist rooms for every subject, and so that in itself required a certain amount of movement.

As for kids mixing, I see that a lot in town. Our local skate ramp always has young teens on it. In town, you almost never see anyone under 18 wearing a mask anywhere. Mind you, parents are often little better. Last time I took mini-IP to school, I’d say about 10% of parents wore masks on the single-lane 1m-wide path to and from two schools with a total of around 600 kids. I realise risks of infection are greatly reduced outside and in fleeting moments, but when there’s the morning crush, I wish people would be more cautious.

[shaolin_monkey]

Woah woah woah!! Did I just read ‘kids unlikely to get long Covid’?!

That is not the case! According to one of the UKs top epidemiologists, Dr Deepti Gurdasani, the ONS data shows 10%-15% of kids who are infected suffer from Long Covid, a broadly similar percentage to adults.

Listen to her discuss this on BBC 5 Live a couple of weeks back - the figures are startling!

Go from about 17:28

https://youtu.be/eLfHTsrOmJY


The whole 30 minutes is worth a listen to be honest, as she discusses the essential transmission mitigation measures needed in schools, takes down the hollow arguments from a Tory MP, and a colleague who has missed this in the ONS data.


EDIT: Here’s more info on Long Covid rates in children from Dr. Christina Pagel, who is on Independent Sage.

https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1363473889951637504?s=21


Summary - primary schools kids are twice as likely to bring COVID into the home as adults, secondary school kids seven times as likely to bring COVID into the home than adults, 10% to 15% of children who are infected exhibit Long Covid even if previously asymptomatic, and schools are one of the main ways COVID is transmitted into the wider community.

That is why, without significant transmission mitigation measures in place in schools we are very likely to see children suffering, an increase in the R rate, more deaths in the wider community, and probably another wave/lockdown.

[Mister Pops]

To be fairrr, the government has been trying to starve kids to death, so that means less kids getting infected.

Also they're not anti-vax, they're pro-disease.

[The Legendary Shark]

To be fairrr, the government has been trying to starve kids to death, so that means less kids getting infected.

Also they're not anti-vax, they're pro-disease.

That's wrong.

It's fewer kids...   

:-P

[Tjm86]

I find that bizarre. When I was in the current equivalent of year 9, the people in my form were split across four different bands of maths and French, and three in science and English. Quite how teachers are currently dealing with that, I’ve no idea then. Also, my school had specialist rooms for every subject, and so that in itself required a certain amount of movement.

That's the thing.  At the moment that has gone out the window.  Kids are taught in forms for every subject.  So in year 9 where GCSE work has to start in Maths for instance, you are teaching kids who may be doing any one of three tiers.  Bear in mind that there is material that may only be relevant to kids in one or two tiers quite often.

The schools still have specialist rooms but you may well end up teaching a form every subject in that room.  When you consider the layout of some of these rooms .... 

Woah woah woah!! Did I just read ‘kids unlikely to get long Covid’?!

No, ... 'less likely' ... however I am willing to defer to the expert cited here.

[shaolin_monkey]

My apologies - probably my brain working overtime. But yeah, kids who get Covid are far from safe from long term effects.

[shaolin_monkey]

More on Long Covid in kids here:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/mar/02/long-covid-uk-children-date-cause-concern-scientists-say

[IndigoPrime]

On the above, note that it’s government policy that if a child in class A gets confirmed COVID, that class should isolate (although some schools have triggered this only on a second confirmed case), but the siblings of isolating children are legally mandated to continue going to school—when they will be in different class groups (or possibly different schools).

But, yes, this is all fine.

[Tjm86]

More on Long Covid in kids here:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/mar/02/long-covid-uk-children-date-cause-concern-scientists-say

Yep, read that one as well.

LSS - data is still equivocal but starting to grow.  I suspect that one problem regarding the impact of Covid on youngsters is that up 'til now priority has been given to adults in testing etc.  If the bairns get it then they just shut them up at home for a spell (or not as the case may be ...)

Some 'expert' was on the Beeb this morning spontificating over the most likely transmission routes for teachers.  Apparently its because teachers are constantly clubbing together in the 'common room' and that's why they keep getting it.

Just goes to show, doesn't it.  I mean, the number of schools that have 'common rooms' for staff ... then the amount of time teachers have to go anywhere near them.  With the current 'covid-insecure' guidelines pretty much everything is done virtually now (staff meetings are now so much more productive on Zoom / Teams ... switch off the camera and get on with something useful instead).  But apparently that's how teachers are coming down with it all the time ...   

[shaolin_monkey]

Yeah, it’s some real facepalm stuff, eh?

Anyone who has kids knows damn well that even in the non-plague years they infect each other with goodness knows what cold and flu germs, measles, chickenpox etc etc etc etc, giving it to the adults either at school or at home. Kids in schools have ALWAYS been vectors of transmission.

So even without solid data, due to lack of testing or whatever, when I hear anyone suggest it ISN’T coming from the kids it makes me want to scream, and throw my phone through the bloody window.

[Jim_Campbell]

Anyone who has kids knows damn well that even in the non-plague years they infect each other with goodness knows what cold and flu germs, measles, chickenpox etc etc etc etc, giving it to the adults either at school or at home. Kids in schools have ALWAYS been vectors of transmission.

So even without solid data, due to lack of testing or whatever, when I hear anyone suggest it ISN’T coming from the kids it makes me want to scream, and throw my phone through the bloody window.

Epidemiologist Dr Deepti Gurdasani (who I'm sure you already follow) has had a lot to say about this subject recently, far too much to meaningfully link to but suffice to say that she is entirely unconvinced by the official line on this, and she's been right about a whole fuckton of stuff in the last year or so. Any forum members also on Twitter who want some clear, informed, expert opinion on this whole covid mess could do worse than add @dgurdasani1 to their follow lists…

[IndigoPrime]

Number of really bad colds across the entire winter in our house: none. Number of small, short-run bouts of coughing or sneezing: three or four. The kid had the sniffles for about a week too. That is way, WAY below what we usually have.

I really hope if nothing else changes because of COVID, people’s attitudes towards illness will. If you’re an adult and ill, wear a mask. Also, stay the fuck away from other people if you can. The same with kids. “Don’t worry—it’s only a head cold” is not OK. Stay off school for a couple of days so it doesn’t spread.

But of course, the above also requires support, from employers and others. It’s not viable without flexibility, and we all know how flexible the Tories aren’t.

[Jim_Campbell]

Number of really bad colds across the entire winter in our house: none. Number of small, short-run bouts of coughing or sneezing: three or four. The kid had the sniffles for about a week too. That is way, WAY below what we usually have.

Statistician Dr David Spiegelhalter was on R4 today explaining that the falling number of excess deaths will probably see the UK week-by-week number of deaths converge with the five-year average in the very near future, largely due to the almost complete absence of flu fatalities this winter. This is a direct result of the covid distancing/mask wearing/hand washing measures (and also, ironically, because a chunk of the deaths in the summer were elderly care home residents who the winter flu season would probably have seen off anyway).

[Tjm86]

Anyone who has kids knows damn well that even in the non-plague years they infect each other with goodness knows what cold and flu germs, measles, chickenpox etc etc etc etc, giving it to the adults either at school or at home. Kids in schools have ALWAYS been vectors of transmission.

Aye.  That's why anyone who works in school normally has an immune system so robust it laughs at Ebola!  After a couple of years you've had a run at pretty much anything and everything.

Crimbo before last (just before the pandemic) we went to London and I came down with a hell of a cold for the first time in I don't know how long.  It completely, and I do mean completely, wiped me out.  My wife is still convinced it was Covid even though it was earlier than the official 'release date', so to speak.

On the subject of Prof Spiegelhalter, I would highly recommend his book on stats and his podcast series.  For such an eminent statistician the guy is amazingly clear in his communication.  Ironically it is his passion, risk communication clarity!

[shaolin_monkey]

Epidemiologist Dr Deepti Gurdasani (who I'm sure you already follow) has had a lot to say about this subject recently, far too much to meaningfully link to but suffice to say that she is entirely unconvinced by the official line on this, and she's been right about a whole fuckton of stuff in the last year or so. Any forum members also on Twitter who want some clear, informed, expert opinion on this whole covid mess could do worse than add @dgurdasani1 to their follow lists…

Yes indeed! And her segments on TV despite being short are hard hitting!

Here’s the 30 mins on BBC 5 live that I posted above, where she is stellar:

https://youtu.be/eLfHTsrOmJY


Here she is again on BBC breakfast, once just herself, and again with a colleague, but both times giving solid info, and all worth a watch:

https://youtu.be/rpJnk1g-098

https://youtu.be/ZEzsRyggFBI