Day of Chaos 2: a.Covid-19 thread.

[TordelBack]

"Tomorrow will be worse. And the day after that. And after that... too grim to contemplate."

In the spirit of the Politics Thread, I thought we might consider self-isolating Coronavirus chat here. That way those of us who want to stare into the abyss can do so in company, and those who'd understandably rather pull the curtains and turn up the stereo don't have to hear the moans of the damned.

Starting this in the full knowledge that this isn't going to be funny, and people you love are probably going to die before this is over. So I apologise for offence in advance.

14 cases in Ireland now, doubling every day, and community transmission hasn't even started. Outgoing Govt response is to pretend there are no issues, and no actions required, so that the economy can stagger on infecting everyone for a bit longer before it keels over and dies.

*Everything* depends upon the final level of infection rates, and we here appear to have surrendered that fight without even trying.

Who'd have thought hardline communist dictatorships were ahead of the game after all?

[JayzusB.Christ]

Good idea to start a new thread.  This is going to be a big one, and I don't think the enormity has hit me yet. 

I wonder what will change after this, along with the deaths.  Economies maybe. Governments.

[IndigoPrime]

Again, a local school sent children on a skiing trip to Italy on Monday, in full knowledge that skiing holidays are where loads of infections originated. So that vector seems fun. Kids return, spread the virus to friends/parents/siblings. And then the town is fucked.

My hope is they’ll get lucky. Regardless, I wish people would stop being a mix of selfish, flippant, and ignorant about the potential dangers. (Icelanders returning from Italy were reported as having switched flights, so they could avoid quarantine. Fortunately, many of them were idiots and boasted about this on social media. Even so, that tiny country now has over 30 cases. That might not sound much, but that’s one for every 10,000 people there.)

[shaolin_monkey]

So we’ve got a climate change thread, a coronavirus thread - maybe I’ll start an asteroid thread given the close call that’s due in about a month.

I guess my only real thought on this is that it’s staggering how much media hysteria is being whipped up about a virus whose death toll remains in the 100s versus, say, deaths by car in the U.K. which number in the thousands, and actual deaths by climate change to date which already number in the millions.

On the plus side, China quarantining itself has caused a staggering drop in emissions.

[IndigoPrime]

Unknowns are a concern. There’s no vaccine, and this virus seems rather nasty, converting to a hospitalisation condition in a fifth of people who catch it. Death rate is around 3.4%, according to the WHO. If it can be contained, we’ll probably be OK. If it can’t and it hits in one big blast, we don’t have enough hospital beds.

As for climate change, I agree, but a lot of this comes down to political will. Climate change is “in the future”, and so gets punted. This virus is “now”, and so gets _some_ attention from politicians. Although in the west, they still seem to be figuring out how many deaths they can get away with before shutting everything down. The economy remains king. As do skiing trips.

[pauljholden]

This morning I decided we need a coronvirus plan - nothing significent, not zombie attack plan, just a general, what do we do if a) either one of the kids school finds someone infected or b) wife's shared office space does the same. These are our biggest potential vectors.

My youngest has asthma, though I think he'd be fine, but both my wife and my dad are gonna be pretty susceptable to anything and I don't want to endanger them.

Here's the plan, in the event that one of the two schools or wife's shared office reports someone has it, all of us will self isolate for two weeks. That should limit our potential to spread anything from one location to another.

We have some food for a little while (*two days probably given how my kids eat), but I've family can probably deliver stuff to our front door (or tesco's can)

After the two weeks, everything being equal, I'm sure we'll be all clear. At that point if the location is still closed off, we'll simply avoid that place until it's clear - in the meantime the rest of us can go about our business.

Gonna be a bit more careful outside our flat in the communal areas (because who knows, right?) and will probably start to buy enough in-house supplies for a two week self-isolation program if it comes to that.

But aside from that, that's largely it.

Our biggest concern is our eldest has always been funny about his health and cleanliness to the point I've been worried he'll develop OCD and we have an appointment with someone to talk about CBT to make sure it doesn't become abnormal. BUT - what he's always been doing is now the recommended advice, and he's keen to start wearing face masks (and has been for years...)

It's very hard to know where sensible planning crosses the line to panic, but I hope I've struck a balance.

[TordelBack]

That's basically our Plan too, although we have added an appendix outlining which pet we'll eat first.  Saves arguments later.  The big worry for me is how to continue to provide care for two elderly and unwell relatives.

While I agree that the media have been driven to ecstatic heights by their newest click-enhancer, I don't think there is any hysteria whatsoever in the WHO numbers - and those are absolutely dire if infection rates even get out of single digits. With a mortality rate 20-40 times that of recent flu's, and even the young and fit as likely to die of C-19 as the most elderly crock is of seasonal flu (0.2%), plus a huge number of Chinese victims still in critical care, I think it's a very, very serious situation indeed. With 1 in 5 victims requiring hospital care, and about 1 in 25 requiring ICU, it only takes the smallest of infection rates to utterly overwhelm our health services.

I've said it before here, but here it is again: 250 ICU beds in Ireland (and a promise of 20 more), which means we have to keep the infection rate below 0.25% (about 11,000 victims total) at any one time or people will be dying at way above the predicted levels.  That's not far off the same level of hospitalisations as seasonal flu, against which the elderly, vulnerable and frontline staff are vaccinated, as well as the responsible chunk of the rest of us. So in the absence of a vaccine, and a long incubation period, why would we believe C-19 infections will stay below that number?

When there are no more ventilators left, watch that mortality rate soar.

[Jim_Campbell]

I'm trialling a reverse-isolation strategy. Every time someone coughs in my vicinity, I drag them into an alley and kill them with a baseball bat. It's the only way to be sure.

[paddykafka]

While I'm reasonably confident of my own ability to protect myself from this virus, and follow basic common sense and decency when it comes to coughing or sneezing etiquette, that most certainly does not extend to my fellow humans. Case in point: just a few weeks ago, the guy behind the counter in Teco's - who was clearly afflicted with a cold or chest infection of some kind or other - sneezed right into his hand, before then proffering my change from the purchase towards me. I told him to put it in the charity box!

And don't get me started on public transport. Just a couple of months ago during the height of flu season, the amount of mank-bags on buses and trams, coughing, sneezing and hacking without even bothering to cover their gobs or expel their sputum into a tissue was staggering. It was like travelling on mobile petri dishes!

I will soon be refraining from using public transport and going shank's mare instead until this crisis has passed.

[IndigoPrime]

It’s bad enough at schools. Mini-G (5) is super at sneezing/coughing properly, but comes back almost every day saying how other kids at her school don’t do that. But then I was recently on a train with some grumpy 20yo (or thereabouts) sitting on the floor, coughing into the air. Thanks, germ spreader!

[shaolin_monkey]

In terms of preparedness, we’ve had a rolling stock of 6 months supplies of food and essentials ever since the first Brexit date rolled around. We could self-isolate right now and come out in a month having probably put on weight from stuffing our faces out of boredom.

Re the numbers cited above, I bow to the findings of the number crunchers - not my area of expertise. It is tough to find calm, rational info amid the noise, but if that is what WHO say I’m not about to argue with the scientists. Unless of course I see some YouTube videos about it being a big conspiracy to sell more Andrex.

[IAMTHESYSTEM]

I think Judge Dredd advised us to 'Wash our hands,' so there's some sage advice for everyone. Not looking too good, is it? I'm reading The Modern Mercenary by Sean Mcfate and according to him, the 14th Century is about to return, with private Mercenary Corps devastating parts of the globe on behalf of Governments and Private Monies. Couple that with disease pandemics like the current Coronavirus, migration waves as civilians try to escape war zones and powerful technology like A.I Spy Drones, you can see how bad this Century could become. "Vive la mort, Vive la Guerre, Vive le sacré mercenaire" (Long live death, long live war, long live the cursed mercenary)

[Dandontdare]

I'm off to Lanzarote in the morning and I've got a hacking (smoker's) cough - shouldn't have trouble getting a seat at the airport!

I'm more worried about Ryanair still being in business in a week's time than catching the bug.

[moly]

Due to go to Singapore and Thailand beginning of April so that should be interesting if the planes are actually flying then

[Funt Solo]

Recovering from another lung virus, and my knee surgery, and my first ever full-blown panic attack (post-op stress), my psyche is quietly gibbering in a corner in utter terror because ... I don't wanna die!