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Day of Chaos 2: a.Covid-19 thread.

Started by TordelBack, 05 March, 2020, 08:57:13 PM

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IndigoPrime

Mrs IP is in reasonable health but has a slew of allergies and a mild respiratory condition. Her fear is that the combination of factors might make her tricky to treat. But we will be calling on Monday for sure. (We have also been very careful so far.)

von Boom

Hopefully, it turns out to be a mistake, IP, like Pyro's sister. Regardless, I hope you and she are staying well.

Everyone else stay well as, er... well.

Professor Bear

Best of luck to Mrs IP and the family.

Quote from: Funt Solo on 09 May, 2020, 04:41:54 PM
I have noticed "the media" peddling quite a lot of "when will lock-down end?" rhetoric. Are they echoing the thoughts of the public or trying to generate a story?

Leaving aside the self-perpetuating nature of the UK media cycle (in which a right-wing paper can run an op-ed on the front pages and the BBC then launders the story in their newspaper reviews piece from opinion to news simply by acknowledging it), generally when the story is some variation of "23% of Britons favor ending the lockdown", you can make an educated guess why the other 77% aren't mentioned in the headline, though obviously a bit more thought results in pondering how the question was phrased, as there's a big difference between "would you like the lockdown to end today?" and "do you think the lockdown should end today?"

It's over a week old, but this Ispos Mori polling review has a pretty unambiguous headline, though I am most surprised by the numbers for America.  A quick perusal of social media for more current polling data suggests only around 17% of the public unambiguously favor reopening, which I expected to be significantly higher given some of the stories being published and all the footage of gun nuts with assault rifles rushing town halls.

paddykafka

Quote from: shaolin_monkey on 09 May, 2020, 03:22:11 PM
I went for a cycle last night. It was nightmarish. 

I go out later when there are fewer pedestrians and cyclists, and usually manage a cycle once every couple of days. The roads are a lot quieter at dusk, and there's hardly anyone about. Usually.

This time, I cycled past, and on one occasion through, shitloads of parties. People partying in their front gardens, spilling out onto the pavement, people with chairs and tables laid out with food and drinks in front of their terraced house surrounded by fellow party-goers, AN ENTIRE STREET covered in bunting and rammed with people!!

It was insane.

I get the impression from Twitter that Cardiff wasn't alone in this idiocy.

I'm calling it now - within the next 1 - 2 weeks we will see our second spike.

Sadly, the depth of human stupidity and selfish disregard really doesn't surprise me at all. No doubt those same morons will be weeping and moaning when they or one of their own are afflicted by the virus. The only people I would feel sorry for are the entirely innocent individual who they might infect, or the frontline health worker who has to put their life at risk by treating those thoughtless miscreants.

Hope you're keeping well anyway, Shaolin Monkey. Might be an idea to reconsider your cycling route or time that you go out. Take care.

Funt Solo

Quote from: Professor Bear on 09 May, 2020, 08:51:31 PM
...numbers for America.  A quick perusal of social media for more current polling data suggests only around 17% of the public unambiguously favor reopening, which I expected to be significantly higher given some of the stories being published and all the footage of gun nuts with assault rifles rushing town halls.

If the media image of the US was what the US was actually like I wouldn't live here. Hicks did a bit on the skewed perspective of the news media that's still relevant today. (Just try to ignore the bit where he suggests the cure for Aids is Jane Fonda having sex with someone she hates.)

Editorially, I get it: which news item do you run with? The 83% of people sitting dutifully at home trying their best not to spread a deadly virus as (for many) their economic situation slowly unravels. Or the gun-toting nut-jobs intimidating their elected representatives?

But not just for ratings: we should know about those gun-toting nut-jobs, shouldn't we? I mean, if someone took over your local town hall with a shotgun, it would be strange if everyone was talking about what a lovely scone Mrs. Miggins had for lunch.
++ A-Z ++  coma ++

MacabreMagpie

Where the new rules have popped up online, one detail that's being reported is that you're allowed to meet up with one person outside of your household (with social distancing).

Boris didn't say that in the speech, did he?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/10/uk-coronavirus-lockdown-what-has-boris-johnson-announced

shaolin_monkey

‪Anyone else confused about this 'R' business and what it means in terms of reducing Covid-19 transmission and death?‬

I found this document from Welsh Government to be very useful. ‬

‪https://gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2020-05/technical-advisory-cell-modelling-update.pdf‬

Jim_Campbell

Quote from: shaolin_monkey on 10 May, 2020, 10:44:00 PM
‪Anyone else confused about this 'R' business and what it means in terms of reducing Covid-19 transmission and death?‬

It's pretty straightforward: it's the number of people each infected person passes the infection on to. Greater than one, and the infection is rate is increasing. Less than one and the number of infected people is falling.

Of course, without mass-testing the general population continuously and more or less at random, there is literally no way of calculating 'R', which is just one way in which the UK government is continuing to fail on this matter. They talk about the 'R' number but they genuinely have no clue what it actually is.
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IndigoPrime

The danger is that they will wing it without real data. So we will be told R is 0.6 when it might be 1.1. We've already seen that we are alone in Europe in terms of the sheer number of excess deaths.

TordelBack

#729
The legions on that Twitter hurrahing a return to primary school (aka free daycare) on the basis that "the WHO say children can't transmit the virus" is terrifying. For clarity: this is a lie, no-one has said this.

And bad as things are in RoI, with the terrifyng prospect for me of being back on construction sites next week, let me tell you UK types that we are staring with open-mouthed horror at your situation. Even my mother, Daily Mail devotee, Brexit-supporter, isn't-Boris-a-card fangirl, rang me this morning to say "what the hell are they thinking".

IndigoPrime

We have a 5yo. Her school is an infant school, and has three classes per year. So that's 180 year R and year 1. There is a single-path road leading to the school, which is about 1m wide — about enough for two people side-by-side. The school itself has about 20 car parking spaces, and so people either have to park on the road and walk, or park in nearby streets and walk further. The school itself has a path around the main building that is, again, about enough for two people side-by-side.

Assuming social distancing will still be in place by 1 June, it is almost impossible to do drop-off/pick-up safely. The only way I can think of that this could work would be to close the road to traffic, and essentially have a long 'conga' of parents/kids a large distance away. Even that would be tricky, and would take an hour or more per session. It's not viable.

And this is just one of several schools in one town, and also ignores the vector of children spreading the virus and then giving that back to their parents.

In short, we're just back to herd immunity, and attempting to not overrun the NHS with cases. That's it. That's the plan. (Also, for the uninitiated, there are fines in place if you don't take your kids to school — and schools can also decide to not take your kids back in the following school year if you don't take them. Fines are currently on hold, but who knows when that law will change back again? Knowing the Tories, on 1 June...)

Definitely Not Mister Pops

You may quote me on that.

IndigoPrime

Quote from: Professor Bear on 09 May, 2020, 08:51:31 PMBest of luck to Mrs IP and the family.
Well, she phoned our GP surgery. That was... something. The person on the other end suggested it "might be a hoax", and then offered for her to make an econsult appointment to ask our (new and mostly useless) GP to "go through your records" to see what the problem might be.

FFS.

JayzusB.Christ

Really hope all goes well with Mrs IP.

In other news, I've found myself inwardly applauding Piers Morgan as he lays into bullshitting Tories, rather than my usual inward desire to knee him hard in the balls.  Strange times indeed.
"Men will never be free until the last king is strangled with the entrails of the last priest"

IndigoPrime

Thanks.

As for Morgan, it shows he has the capability to be a great journalist. Mostly, though, he's just a git. Still, I'll take him being on the side of good for now.

Also, it looks like Johnson might have to go back to hospital again after the mauling he got from Starmer in PMQs.