Day of Chaos 2: a.Covid-19 thread.

[The Legendary Shark]

Worse, his pregnant wife is toiling in the field doing back-breaking work while he's gazing out the window getting inspiration for his next piece.

Now, that's a proper poet...

[Funt Solo]

The other problem with agrarian bliss is that it's bloody hard work (not least if it's all left to the pregnant folk). Also, if you force the issue, you're suddenly Pol Pot. Oh, and it takes up too much room for humanity  - the Dutch are busy figuring out efficient ways to farm at the scale required to make it work for everyone, and not just those hippies in that croft over there.

That entire poem is a bit daft, really. What's the polite term? Parochial.

[The Legendary Shark]

I also know a limerick about a well endowed young Bengali gentleman but it's not quite as refined.

[Funt Solo]

There was a young man that said farming
Was adequate and even quite charming
With science being left for the birds
He sung us a long-winded dirge
But it made no fucking sense

[The Legendary Shark]

There was a young lady named Nelly,
Who gardened with a babe in her belly,
Her hubby, a poet,
Advised her to hoe it,
And to not mistake Life for the telly.

[Funt Solo]

Ah, my 3rd and 4th lines are too long, aren't they.

Reminds me of:

There was a young man from Dundee
Who was stung on the leg by a wasp
When they asked, "Does it hurt?"
He said, "Yes, it does
Thank goodness it wasn't a hornet!"

(In that, it's all in the tempo, not the rhyming.)

---

Also, Covid.

[Funt Solo]

Real headline from the BBC:



(One assumes this story involved an adult finding out the truth after many years of magical thinking.)

[The Legendary Shark]

Aaand there's the story that suggests this current War on Terror Microbes is bedding in for a long stay.

[shaolin_monkey]

Dr Dominic Pimenta, writer of 'Duty of Care', and chairman of "Help Them Help Us', the NHS charity, has been involved in building this COVID simulator. It takes certain key info, such as 7 day death averages, and types of lockdowns, and then works out likely totals over subsequent months.

He says: " This is now an underestimate but gives an idea on the maths."

Try it out.

https://modernsocietyinitiative.org/experimental-covid-sim


If you want to get a more complete understanding of how the simulator works, recommendations based on the numbers it shows, and much more besides, I recommend his thread on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/drdompimenta/status/1318268864799690754?s=21

[Rately]

Rumour in NI is that we are headed into a 6-8 week Lock-down.

I'm still working from Office, but i can't see that being possible very soon, especially if things are going to be as bad as predicted.

[Rately]

This is sobering, and absolutely terrifying.

https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1321627987847139329?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

[shaolin_monkey]

Everything is pointing to the whole of the U.K. needing a hard lockdown right now to avoid the worst of hospitalisations and deaths. And it's going to be bad anyway.

Based on current deaths, here's what the figures look like if we have a hard lockdown immediately, returning to regional lockdowns in a month (see pics).

More info in this BBC report:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54723962







Incidentally, SAGE warned the U.K. government of this in September, demanding immediate action. What action was taken? None. In fact, worse than none - it deliberately ignored the advice, and also the protestations from Welsh and Scottish FMs, plus councils around England.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/12/ministers-rejected-four-out-five-proposals-from-sage-to-avert-covid-second-wave

[shaolin_monkey]

This is sobering, and absolutely terrifying.

https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1321627987847139329?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Yeah, that is a crazy picture. It really shows what difference government policy makes.

[Rately]

Led by donkeys.

I hope, somewhere down the line, that criminal charges are brought against some of these supposed Leaders.

[shaolin_monkey]

Led by donkeys.

I hope, somewhere down the line, that criminal charges are brought against some of these supposed Leaders.

Agreed! And it gets worse!!

Well, this makes for fury-inducing reading.

Sept 21: SAGE calls for 2-3 week lockdown. PM refuses, keeps their advice secret.

Oct 13: SAGE advice is finally published on the 12th (see link), which is the first time anyone has seen it. Starmer calls for 2-3 week lockdown on the same day he sees SAGE advice. Government dithers.

Oct 30: Government scientists say it's now too late for a 2-3 week lockdown and it'll have to be longer.

Papers are reporting the government will shortly announce a full-on four week lockdown.

So it's over a month since the SAGE advice, cases are now skyrocketing, and a three week lag means we're going to see a horrific number of deaths even while in a four week lockdown.

Throughout this, an already stressed-to-breaking-point NHS will have to somehow stay going as we potentially see a situation WORSE than March/April.

Can we not have Johnson arrested? There MUST be a law against this level of life-ending incompetence.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/fifty-eighth-sage-meeting-on-covid-19-21-september-2020