The Political Thread

[Funt Solo]

I haven't actually heard an anti-mask argument that goes beyond "it makes me feel icky", so I'm not sure why there's not a mandatory mask policy in place in UK schools. It's a really low-hanging fruit in terms of mitigating the virus spread.

I understand it makes direct communication more difficult, which is something you don't want in a school setting - but it doesn't impact learning as much as a Covid infection so...

I don't get it.

[The Legendary Shark]

There is a preprint (not yet peer reviewed) Israeli (Israel claims a ~68% vaccination rate) paper entitled "Comparing SARS-CoV-2 natural immunity to vaccine-induced immunity: reinfections versus breakthrough infections" (posted 24/08/2021). Would anyone like a link (either here or via pm) or would this be considered "misinformation"?

[Definitely Not Mister Pops]

It's interesting, but I've had the virus* and I've had the vaccine. There's only one of those things I would want to go through again. Gaining immunity by getting infected with the potentially-fatal-or-life-changing** virus is a ...and I'm being very kind here...bold strategy.

*the original variant, such a hipster me.

**life changing, not in a win the lottery way, more like getting paralyzed because seat-belts are a for cowards kinda way

[Funt Solo]

Take the bold* strategy: catch Covid - chance of death is about 0.68% or about 7 per 1000 (680 per 100,000). Usual caveats for age and pre-existing conditions apply. Could be higher or lower per individual. We all know that. Oh, and you give the virus a chance to mutate. And you pass it on to other people. And you're a cock-womble (unless it wasn't your fault - in which case you're a cuddle-muffin).

Take the wise strategy: get vaccinated for Covid - chance of death (possibly from the vaccine itself but that's not really clear from the data) is about 0.0019% or about 0 per 1000. (2 per 100,000.) You don't give the virus a chance to mutate. You don't pass it onto other people. You're a cuddle-muffin (possibly posthumous - sorry).

---

If you survive, you've probably got better protection if you went the vaccine route: Vaccination Offers Higher Protection than Previous COVID-19 Infection.


* "bold" is actually Zwaheli for "wasp-inhaling".

[The Legendary Shark]

Oh well, if the CDC's okay to post - here's one from Barnstable County, Massachusetts, which indicates that 74% of COVID infections occurred in fully vaccinated persons. (Probably because the jab doesn't augment front line mucus antibodies, which natural infection does. I'll leave the implications of that for you to ponder.)

[Definitely Not Mister Pops]

Oh well, if the CDC's okay to post - here's one from Barnstable County, Massachusetts, which indicates that 74% of COVID infections occurred in fully vaccinated persons. (Probably because the jab doesn't augment front line mucus antibodies, which natural infection does. I'll leave the implications of that for you to ponder.)

Or as the study itself says:

The findings in this report are subject to at least four limitations. First, data from this report are insufficient to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, including the Delta variant, during this outbreak. As population-level vaccination coverage increases, vaccinated persons are likely to represent a larger proportion of COVID-19 cases. Second, asymptomatic breakthrough infections might be underrepresented because of detection bias. Third, demographics of cases likely reflect those of attendees at the public gatherings, as events were marketed to adult male participants; further study is underway to identify other population characteristics among cases, such as additional demographic characteristics and underlying health conditions including immunocompromising conditions.*** MA DPH, CDC, and affected jurisdictions are collaborating in this response; MA DPH is conducting additional case investigations, obtaining samples for genomic sequencing, and linking case information with laboratory data and vaccination history. Finally, Ct values obtained with SARS-CoV-2 qualitative RT-PCR diagnostic tests might provide a crude correlation to the amount of virus present in a sample and can also be affected by factors other than viral load.††† Although the assay used in this investigation was not validated to provide quantitative results, there was no significant difference between the Ct values of samples collected from breakthrough cases and the other cases. This might mean that the viral load of vaccinated and unvaccinated persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 is also similar. However, microbiological studies are required to confirm these findings.

[Jim_Campbell]

which indicates that 74% of COVID infections occurred in fully vaccinated persons.

Fuck's sake. As more of any given population gets vaccinated, more of the people who contract the virus will have been vaccinated. This is statistically obvious. What those people are NOT doing, by and large, is dying from Covid.

This is like saying: 90% of people involved in traffic accidents were wearing seatbelts — seatbelts don't work.

[Funt Solo]

100% of the people who died in the Twin Towers were in an office. Offices are clearly unsafe.

Philosophical question for you Shark: I'm quite often wrong. Like, I might have misheard someone, or misconstrued something, or just made a false positive, or repeated what I thought was a fact only to find out later it was just one of those things people say that isn't actually true when tested. Also, I'm a coder: which involves removing bugs from programs - and quite often I put the bugs there in the first place (by accident) - so coding is sort of the process of being wrong over and over again. Being wrong is a natural part of life.

Have you ever considered you might be wrong?

[The Legendary Shark]

I made no claim that the post I linked to was representative of the whole world, and neither did Funt with the post he linked to, that would be like trying to reconstruct a high definition photograph from just two pixels. We will never get to that full picture, however, if we ignore or, worse, villify the pixels we don't like.

Jim, in the report there were no reported deaths in vaccinated or unvaccinated cases, which is surely a Good Thing. A COVID case is not a COVID death - which does not, of course, mean that deaths do not occur and nor does it mean that every case is a death sentence. The msm has really muddied the waters, in my view, whipping the public up into an orgy of fear. And fear is a poor teacher. Science tells us that natural immunity is far superior to vaccinated immunity but, again, this does not mean that nobody should be vaccinated. The drive to vaccinate everybody is a political rather than a scientific one, in my view (and in the view of a not inconsiderable number of experts). The correct balance must be found, I believe.

Sure I might be wrong, Funt, but in the meantime I'm content to risk being part of the Control Group (you're welcome).

---

As an aside, I've long had an idea of making a little computer program called Scribbler, or something. It would be a very basic drawing program with no filters or effects and limited pencil/brush styles and a maximum of three layers (if any at all) BUT I want the program to be able to rotate the page in the same way Corel Painter does. Rotating the 'page' would be really useful, I think, because when I'm sketching on real paper the ability to rotate it makes life a lot easier whilst drawing in PS or GIMP is a pain in the proverbials. Most programmers I talk to say it's impossible - I really think they mean 'difficult' - but I reckon it can be done. If you can do that, Funt, it might be a nice little earner for you. All I ask is a free copy and a mention in the "About" tab.

---

Anyhoo - back to the politics...

[Woolly]

Science tells us that natural immunity is far superior to vaccinated immunity...

People with Polio might disagree there.

As for the covid vaccine - the point of it is to strengthen your natural defenses against the virus, meaning you aren't as badly affected by it if you catch it, and your body stops the virus more quickly than it would if you were unvaccinated. Which in turn, helps to stop the spread of the virus (even more so if isolation rules are followed).

Bottom line is - less people will die of covid related issues if more people are vaccinated, and if more people would observe social distancing, isolation of cases, and wearing face-masks.

PS. I fully respect anyones right to refuse the vaccine - as long as they also stay the hell away from people who don't refuse it. It isn't fair to place others in a situation where they are more likely to catch it, vaccinated or not.
Gamble with your own life by all means, but not someone elses.

[Definitely Not Mister Pops]

I made no claim that the post I linked to was representative of the whole world, and neither did Funt with the post he linked to, that would be like trying to reconstruct a high definition photograph from just two pixels. We will never get to that full picture, however, if we ignore or, worse, villify the pixels we don't like.

No but you did post a link to a report and in the very next sentence, followed it up with an assertion on the effectiveness of the vaccine.

Oh well, if the CDC's okay to post - here's one from Barnstable County, Massachusetts, which indicates that 74% of COVID infections occurred in fully vaccinated persons. (Probably because the jab doesn't augment front line mucus antibodies, which natural infection does. I'll leave the implications of that for you to ponder.)

Do you see how that might be taken as you claiming to have found a report that calls the effectiveness of the vaccine into question? Of course the report makes no such claims and in fact explicitly states:

...data from this report are insufficient to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, including the Delta variant, during this outbreak.

The drive to vaccinate everybody is a political rather than a scientific one, in my view ...

This sentence is...and I'm trying not to be mean ... muddled. Vaccination programs are more effective when the highest proportion of the population possible is vaccinated. That is quite a basic part of the science. The fact that politicians are promoting this only shows that even they are able to grasp this quite simple concept.

Sure I might be wrong, Funt, but in the meantime I'm content to risk being part of the Control Group (you're welcome).

I beleive this is what the young people would call a "weird flex".

[IndigoPrime]

People with Polio might disagree there.

FIL had polio. He's still having operations to this day, in his 60s, to try and preserve what increasingly limited mobility he has. It's sad to note that, in his country, he was born during the very last year to NOT be offered the polio vaccine. Polio has since effectively been wiped out in western Europe, because we get a squirt of vaccine under our tongues when children. It's gone. Imagine the same anti-jab people had such a strong voice back in the day. It doesn't bear thinking about.

Yet this is where we are with COVID. Vaccine rates in the UK have plateaued. We are far short of herd immunity, once you take children into account. And, unlike many other nations, the UK government seems reluctant to vaccinate the under 16s (presumably due to a clusterfuck on vaccine provision that went hard on the GREAT BRITISH UNION JACK BREXIT AZ when what we really need is more Moderna and Pfizer.

Genuinely, I find it hard to understand why people don't want to be vaccinated. It baffles me. Are they also furiously angry they once got vaccines for measles? And, if they're young enough, mumps and other diseases also? Are the fuming that they got a polio vaccine? Or is it just COVID that causes all this nonsense?

What's most depressing is that said nonsense only serves to increase spread, ramp up the likelihood of vaccine escape and more dangerous mutations, and lengthen the pandemic.

[sheridan]

Sure I might be wrong, Funt, but in the meantime I'm content to risk being part of the Control Group (you're welcome).

Nobody here is thanking you.  And control group suggests you're part of a scientific study, which I'm seriously doubting.

[milstar]

Seems that vaccine talk will never run dry. For it I am glad I took both shots. Glad nothing happened to me, that is (Moderna rules!). But I am against forced vaccination. We are not living in a commie state, where people are forced to do things they simply don't want. Children and the elders, okay, their immunity isn't that developed, but if a middle age person refuses to take a shot, who am I to convince him/her/it otherwise? What should be more worrying are covid variants and the question is would these jabs be enough? Especially when scientists and doctors are never ahead, and always behind in this matters. And I don't feel like getting a shot for x number each time this virus mutates.

[IndigoPrime]

I see very few people compelling anyone to have a vaccine. But there are arguments that those who choose not to—and that are therefore a danger at a societal level—might find themselves in a position where they cannot do certain things. In which case: tough. They'll whine and moan, but it's no different from "have jab X to visit country Y", which has long been a thing.

What should be more worrying are covid variants and the question is would these jabs be enough?

Variants are most likely to appear in a fairly high-vaccinated population but where there are few mitigations in play and were a still reasonably sized chunk of the population is unwilling to be vaccinated. Hello, UK/USA!

Especially when scientists and doctors are never ahead, and always behind in this matters.

That would be the scientists who have pivoted as soon as their understanding has changed, informed politicians and sat there aghast as many politicians have refused to believe the science or adjusted it to only take on board what they wanted to? We've known COVID is aerosol-based for a very long time, and yet mask mandates still aren't in place in the UK and USA because, what, some people are arguing enforced mask use for a temporary period is against their human rights?

And I don't feel like getting a shot for x number each time this virus mutates.

That isn't going to be what happens. But when boosters are free and could stop you getting sick, would it really be that much of a hardship to rock up once a year at a vaccine centre? The second boosters are available for my age group (having had Moderna and seen the efficacy drop-off), I'll sign up.