The Political Thread

[Modern Panther]

As for the everyone has to leave stuff, that was never on the cards, so all who are legally settled in Europe won't be booted out of any country.

Based on what?  They have not legal right to stay.  Not allowing foreign citizens to live and work in the UK might not be what you had in mind, but it's exactly what you voted for.

will be absolutely amazed if the government starts to systematically throw legal residents out.

Your right, there's no way the government would deport people allowed in under one rule, just because those rules change.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-36952652

[Dandontdare]

when all the people who've retired to Spain and France lose their right to free healthcare under the EHIC scheme, I'm sure a lot will come home. So for all those who cited "immigrant burden on the NHS" as a reason for leaving, we'll be swapping (generally) young fit workers with few healthcare needs for returning elderly ex-pats with expensive and complex needs. And we won't be able to hire all the foreign staff to care for them.

[Jim_Campbell]

So for all those who cited "immigrant burden on the NHS" as a reason for leaving, we'll be swapping (generally) young fit workers with few healthcare needs for returning elderly ex-pats with expensive and complex needs. And we won't be able to hire all the foreign staff to care for them.

I've mentioned this before. Several times. Not to mention all those homes they're going to want to live in... because there's no housing crisis in the UK.

Glad the Brexit guys thought all this through. Oh, no, wait, they didn't.

[IndigoPrime]

As for the everyone has to leave stuff, that was never on the cards, so all who are legally settled in Europe won't be booted out of any country. I'm sure some extreme UKIP people hoped for that but if I'm correct, it was all about controlled immigration and not a stop to it.

Given that migration in general won't be heavily affected, Leave voters will be disappointed. (Also, the notion that blocking EU migrants will boost the economy is hilarious, given that Leave leaders are talking about imports from all over, in order to recover numbers required for manual labour. Congrats: you just swapped Polish people willing to work for less for people from further afield willing to work for far less!)

As for residency rights, those expire the second we leave the EU. Bar hand-waving "of course we hope to do a deal" type stuff, there has been precisely nothing from MPs and Brexit leaders about how this will be achieved, and how it will be policed. Are we talking existing residents being fast-tracked to some kind of reside status (which, at the current speed these things take, would require 140 years, without substantial extra investment)? What happens at ports? What will be the cut-off points, in terms of status?

My MP (a Brexit supporter) responded directly to me about this regarding people who have made use of their legal right to reside. That word is very telling. We've lived in the UK since 2004, but making legal use of your rights is a very different thing from just living in a country. It requires employment. My wife spent five years working hard to get from a uni entry course to MA in a subject she wants to start a career in. That doesn't count. We've since had a child, and so she's spent two years looking after mini-IP. That also doesn't count. Her total employment is about four years during this time, which could cause issues with residency according to various documentation we've been looking at. This is the kind of shit that now affects millions of people who never dreamed they might be removed from their home.

And the UK doesn't exactly have a sterling history when it comes to residency. We've seen academics turfed out for no obvious reason; we've seen hardline Tories place absurd demands regarding salary levels, forcing people to otherwise leave. This might not happen with the EU, not least because two million largely elderly Brits would be ejected in response, but 'might not' and even 'probably not' is just not enough for people in this situation.

On trade, of course some discussions will be happening, but nothing more than the basics. You can't get into any depth about this until the final relationship between the UK and EU is sorted. Beyond that, you're talking about a decade for most trade deals of any complexity to be concluded – and that's if you have the expertise (which the UK really doesn't right now). So perhaps by 2030 we will be in the position to create an economic situation that has the potential to equal or surpass our current one. There's no guarantee, however. Many countries are joining – not leaving – trading blocs, because it gives them more power. The UK alone will suddenly find itself in a very different position when going up against the likes of the USA and the Chinese. People who voted out because of TTIP will get a very rude awakening when any USA/UK trade deal happens.

As for queuing at airports. I'd class that as a first World minor irritant. Buying a house abroad to retire in, that's why you pay a lawyer to do all the hard work.

I'm not saying these are big things, and the latter is not widespread. The point is that Brits assume they have the right to do these things. I bet even most Leave voters aren't aware of the ramifications. I await Daily Mail fury about the EU horribly 'forcing' Brits to wait in line in the slow queues, and how this is heaping misery on Brits as a nasty response to Brexit (as opposed to us no longer being part of the system that allows freedom of movement). As for lawyers, that won't mean anything for buying overseas – it's money that counts. It'll be little different from moving to the USA and getting the relevant status. If you have several million dollars and can set up a company: green card for you! If not, tough.

(And, yeah, good point about the healthcare side of things, Dandontdare. Yet another pillar of stupid from Brexit that no-one really thought through.)

[Theblazeuk]

As for the trade stuff, if you really believe that the government haven't sent their feelers out for when Brexit is triggered, so that the negotiations can begin smoothly, well that's obviously your thinking. That's partly what our embassies do all the time all over the world. The only time it hits the news is when someone like Boris rugby tackles a small child on a trade mission.

My colleague's brother is the UK diplomat for a rather section of central & eastern Europe. I met him last week. His word on Brexit is "No one's got a damned clue". If you really believe that 'sending the feelers out' amounts to a damn thing, well that's obviously your thinking. The naivety of Leave is that other countries have some kind of obligation to give Britain a better deal, which clearly...they don't.

A bit like when the UK send specialist teams abroad to help, if it's required. That's just my take on that.[/color]

Pretty sure we haven't done that with flooding in France, Germany, etc... like in so many natural disasters (see Canada fires earlier this year) by the time you get 'boots on the ground' it's all over and in any case, the first-world country should really be able to handle it by itself. Certainly the resources are there and adding more doesn't solve the lack of will to get them deployed correctly.

In short if the offer had been made, it would have been refused - and it may well have been made for all we know.

[Professor Bear]

I'm getting a strong "we have no plan but we're British so we can't fail" vibe.

[IndigoPrime]

"We're British so those bally foreigns should give us what we want, by jove!"

[Hawkmumbler]

"We're British so those bally foreigns should give us what we want, by jove!"

We had an empire, don't you know!

[Theblazeuk]

We went through two world wars, we are GREAT Britain!!!

I think we should stop now I've had my chance to be childish and quote my mates single line of logic though.

[COMMANDO FORCES]

What a negative lot. It's as if you want the country to fail, while  you're sitting at the bar with your half empty pint glasses.

[IndigoPrime]

I don't see anything to be positive about, from the overall economic chances of the UK through to my family's circumstances, which are now hard to predict. And all for what? (Hard to know. Ask 100 Brexit voters what they wanted or expect and you'll get dozens of answers, many of which are incompatible with each other or reality.)

[Hawkmumbler]

Negative? No, jaded by nationalistic trollop and a general lack of things to be proud of? Yeah.

[Theblazeuk]

Bit hypocritical and lets be honest, meaningless. Leave was nothing but years of negativity.

[The Legendary Shark]

I'm with Burdis Block! Cheer the drokk up between you!

[Tjm86]

"We're British so those bally foreigns should give us what we want, by jove!"

We had an empire, don't you know!

Yep!