The Political Thread

[JayzusB.Christ]

Well, I never claimed that Putin was solely responsible for the rise of the right and the fracturing of Western society, but with proven interference in high-profile elections and a possible link to the Leave campaign, it doesn't seem too unfeasible that he had some role in it.

[TordelBack]

It's odd that we readily accept the role of the CIA/NSA/DEA in quasi-covertly fecking over half the democracies in the world, but it's crazy talk to think that Russia might be mucking about on the internet.

[Professor Bear]

Employing an internet troll army to give Star Wars movies bad reviews in order to exacerbate racial tensions in the West?

I don't doubt Putin's been bankrolling people and programmes whose end goals align with Russia's interests, but the levels of multi-dimensional chess he's accused of playing amount to some objectively suss scenarios.

[IAMTHESYSTEM]

Putin's divide and rule strategy have paid nothing but dividends for his United Russia Party. By giving almost every opposition party money, he sows mistrust between them all. Who is taking the money because free cash is always welcome in political circles and who is a paid up state informer, happy to sell out anyone for a fee? If you can't trust each other how can offer any adequate defence against the Russian President and his state-run monopoly on media and power? Europe divisions tend to be along ethnic or religious lines, so Putin uses those differences to try and split them apart. Vlad is winning hands down far no wonder Macron is calling for a European Army to try and counter the threat of Trump and Putin's Russia but he won't get anywhere replacing Nato would take years rather than months.

[TordelBack]

Employing an internet troll army to give Star Wars movies bad reviews in order to exacerbate racial tensions in the West?

Or a Disney false-flag to tribalise the SJWs to replace the Fortnite tweens; or 4chan lolz and bantz; or the YouTube algorithim rewarding endlessly vommitted contentious content on a regular schedule;  or racists gonna racist; take your pick of theories,  or have a slice of each. It's a buffet clusterfuck out there.

[Funt Solo]

One of the scariest thing about the popular support for Trump (for example), is that there is a popular support for Trump.  (Not that he won the "popular vote": he didn't.  But still: a lot of people did vote for him.)

One of his key allies has been the Christian right.  It doesn't really matter if Trump paints himself red, wears horns on his head and a t-shirt saying "I am Satan!" - if there's a possibility that he can deliver a ban on abortions (and, as a bonus, a ban on trans folk and gay folk), then the Christian right is behind him.

All this means to me is that Satan appears to run the church.  (They didn't teach me that part in school: I've had to figure it out for myself.)  The greatest trick the devil ever pulled...

Adendum pudendum: I'm not saying all church-goers are evil.  And I don't think that.  But I think banning abortions is.  And I think legally under-classing gays and trans is.

[JayzusB.Christ]

The Daily podcast from Monday the 5th is worth a listen; basically an Evangelical woman who broke tradition and decided to become a Democrat. It gets very interesting when she calls her father to explain her reasons.

[TordelBack]

Sometimes all this chaos is good for a giggle - the "Mogg for No.  10 grassroots movement" is 'reminding' its supporters that the UK doesn't currently have a free trade deal with the EU (because it is a contributor, see - presumably in the same way a taxpayer doesn't have roads, emergency services, libraries etc), and that its trade deficit with the EU means having free trade is a bad thing anyway (despite the deficit being the result of a deliberate 40-year campaign of eliminating UK manufacturing in favour of financial services).

But it's okay,  the Leave vote was fully and accurately informed thank you very much. It's a right laugh. Still,  at least the entirely predictable non-event of the 'blue wave' in the US should give some indication of how a putative if highly unlikely Second (Third) Vote would play out. In the post-fact world where everyone with a phone can find someone to confirm that they are their own personal expert, you can't expect anyone to learn or change.

And over on Irish social media, every comment on the US elections is followed by someone saying "Vote Peter Casey, he tells it like it is! ". All the ubiquitous seething pool of frustrated racists needs is some gobshite to appear to support them and they're everywhere. It's like printing free votes. 

[IndigoPrime]

Still,  at least the entirely predictable non-event of the 'blue wave' in the US should give some indication of how a putative if highly unlikely Second (Third) Vote would play out.

This is the concern. The C4 piece shows a marked swing to remain, BUT when you factor in issues with likely turnout, the result is – brickingly – 50/50. (Actually, it's very slightly remain, but only by a whisker.) That said, better we get another vote and confirm the madness if that's the decision, than spend decades thinking "what if?" Not that we'll get the chance, mind. What will happen now:

- EU has had enough, and just wants the UK out
- The UK will cook up some fuzzy language, and agree to the backstop indefinitely, because it has no choice
- EU will agree that the entire UK can sit inside of a 'customs partnership' until such a point as magical technology exists to allow for a border-free Ireland (or, for that matter, Ireland unifies)
- PR machines of UK and EU will align behind this, and PV idea will be crushed and gone for good

- UK stays in de-facto customs union, and can't do any trade deals
- UK leaves single market, and royally fucks its entire economy
- UK retains inward free movement of a sort, but Brits are blocked from the reverse
- Most people wonder what the fuck we were thinking, but 40%+ are still too proud to shift position

- Some bright spark next summer starts talking about rejoining the EU
- EU says: sure, but you're a third country now, and so will have to join the Euro and Schengen
- Second 'punishment' narrative kicks off, because now the UK really really wants back in (60%+ in favour by this point, probably)

Cue a decade of stupidity and stagnation, a probably one-term Corbyn government, a Tory resurgence, and a dawning realisation that the UK will eventually have to rejoin. That'll probably happen, although not until some time in the middle decades of the century.

[Theblazeuk]

You've all see the excellent Hypernormalisation, I hope? https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04b183c

One Adam Curtis documentary a decade almost makes up for endless weeks of the likes of Marr, Neil, Dimbleby and Kuessenberg clutching their pearls at the suggestion they could do a better job.

[TordelBack]

I wouldn't worry about anything that far in the future. It's obvious now we're going to play with our phones and polish our mighty nations until the planet is underwater and/or on fire and the fortified uplands contain only the most vicious, richest wankers. We had a good long chance to work together to save it all, but preferred the comforting sound of our own voices to the slightest compromise in our lifestyles, and we hated each other way more than we loved our kids, so that's that. Who's for another episode of NCIS: Los Angeles?   

(EDIT: Adam Curtis is the business)

[Professor Bear]

Dems become the majority party in the House of Representatives, and Nancy Pelosi - who'll probably be House Speaker - has already publicly stated she wants both parties on the same page, so lobbyists are still in charge.  Hooray for moderates.

[TordelBack]

It's fairly obvious that this is just how America likes things. If having that dishonest embarrassment of a petulant toddler in the highest office didn't encourage any real change in voting patterns, I'd say nothing will now.  The 2-seats-per-State breakdown of the Senate is a reasonable compromise for balancing a federal system, but if voters in the 'smaller' states are happy with what they see in Washington it almost guarantees stasis, even between the two wings of Gore Vidal's Property Party: centrism is hardly even required, it's all the centre (of the right).

So that's that, on with the show.  You lot may as well make a start on moving Boris' probably-considerable stuff over to Downing Street and all.

[IndigoPrime]

Although when you look at how the popular vote translated to seats, you have something akin to the typical shitshow we see in the UK, in terms of representation (or the lack thereof).

[Professor Bear]

Me in 2016: Are Senate and Congress the same thing?

Me in 2018: There at least used to be some elbow room for indys - Bernie Sanders, for instance, only recently threw in his lot with the Dems - but the results now are pretty much binary*.  Unless the Dems get some major scalps - gun law legislation or movement on healthcare, neither of which the party main has shown any real interest in - I can see their vote fracturing and a huge drop in turnout next time the polls open, but in the meantime, monied interests couldn't have hoped for better than a homogenized House in their pocket.
It's a shame the shine has gone off Occasio-Cortez and O'Rourke never took Texas, because the Dems could have done with a populist of their own instead of the same collection of milquetoast centrism that turns off the fringe voters they'd need.  As it is, it looks like Hillary in 2020 again.

* Which is all Susan Sarandon's fault.