The Political Thread

[JayzusB.Christ]

I thought Flavor Flav was fired anyway?

[Tjm86]

The only real consolation is that we now seem to have an opposition willing to take a more nuanced and considered approach:  aka, let Johnson spin out the rope himself ...

When Corbyn did that you accused him of not following through. 

Fair point.  The difference to me though is that Starmer is currently pressing points consistently rather than casting about aimlessly.  Corbyn had a regrettable habit of bouncing around from one topic to another, giving May breathing space by shifting the topic.  By the time Johnson got going he had pretty much given up the ghost.

From what I've seen so far, it appears that Starmer picks questions that allow Johnson to fall into old habits.  Take this week's Child Poverty figures.  Johnson's response is being increasingly questioned.  Given his history of rebukes from statistics authorities it is starting to be interpreted as another example of his lying.  So we end up with a blustering PM, trying to goad a reaction out of Starmer that Corbyn generally fell for.

I would agree that Starmer missed an opportunity when Johnson tried to press him on his position vis-a-vis school 'reopening' (THEY WERE NEVER CLOSED! [sorry, it annoys me when politicians and the press present a completely inaccurate picture]).  The question that should have been put to Johnson here, to my mind, is why so few parents have been convinced of the safety of their children's schools. 

Your point on what Starmer can measurably do is also a valid one.  It isn't just a case of his polling numbers though, rather of practicality.  With the margin the Tories have in the HOC right now the only way to force an issue is to make it one that troubles the Tories themselves. 

Johnson's approval figures are possibly the better metric here.  His tenure has not been brilliant and even traditional media supporters such as the Mail are making for uncomfortable reading.  The Foreign Interference Report is still hanging over him, Cummings is now even more of a poisoned chalice than before, Jenrick's planning decision is becoming a bit of an issue, Whateley's Nurses comments haven't gone down well and there is a growing awareness that Sunak is about to present the country with the bill for their <sarcasm>"Covid-holiday"</sarcasm>.

I think you're right to challenge me on perceptions though.  It might be worth comparing Starmer and Corbyn more closely to see whether the difference is tangible rather than perceptual.  Thanks for putting me on the spot there.

[IndigoPrime]

It's to do with questioning and follow-up. Corbyn was crap at PMQs. He'd show up with a bunch of questions and run through them. Political folks I follow on Twitter were forever going nuts that he had the Tories on the ropes, and then he'd fail to deliver a killer blow by moving on to something else, seemingly at random.

Starmer uses his training as a lawyer to more skilfully drill down and cause damage. The issue is, fundamentally, whether that matters. Still, polling is improving slowly for Labour, and Starmer's own ratings are way, way higher than Corbyn's. Unfair? Perhaps, but we play in an unfair system. The big question marks for me now are what Starmer will do over extension. Having the Tories own it without stating categorically that an extension is necessary will be a big tactical blunder.

[Professor Bear]

Your point on what Starmer can measurably do is also a valid one.

It was really the only point I had apart from uncharitably implying there was a double standard - for the latter, I apologise.
PMQs is pretty much just a masturbatory exercise for political pundits to convince themselves they have a tangible skillset and aren't just guessing and pushing their own narrative like everyone else.  PMQs is not a metric of anything, it's PR, it's just that when Tony Blair was doing it, there was still some dignity to the process of two public schoolboys exchanging opinions in nice suits.  With a preening, bulletproof narcissist like Johnson, that isn't possible anymore - though it's probably a mistake to fall back into the thinking that the issue with PMQs (and UK politics in general) is just one of presentation.

It might be worth comparing Starmer and Corbyn more closely to see whether the difference is tangible rather than perceptual.

This is, of course, compulsory if the mistakes of the past are to be avoided, but recent reports/reviews - both officially-released and leaked - show that such a frank evaluation is unlikely to happen within the framework of the Labour Party.  It looks suspiciously like one personality cult has just been replaced with another*, albeit this time without the funny memes.



* Is it ironic that the Labour Party has had two cults of personality in a row based around men who don't seem to have much of a personality, or just depressing?

[IndigoPrime]

I was thinking about this the other day. It does seem we're basically fucked unless:

- Labour recognises the need to work with others, stands down in key marginals, and promises PR
- Lib Dems recognise they are a second-tier party, have the means to perhaps win 30 seats at the next GE, stop being pricks in Scotland to the bafflement of English Lib Dems, stand down in all Con/Lab marginals, and perhaps also realise the SW is not 'their' territory anymore
- Greens recognise the need to basically stand down everywhere bar Brighton Pav (assuming it still exists in 2024) and IOW, and obliterate their finances from 2024–29, for the promise of 20+ MPs in 2024
- SNP put on hold indy2 and work with other parties for a more accountable, representative and probably devolved state-based UK that will rapidly recreate ties with Europe (~EEA, but not EU membership)

So, yeah, Con majority in 2024, then, albeit probably on a smaller plurality — (~35–40% vote share, and 10–30-seat majority, while Starmer and co. still play down the need for PR, the Libs/SNP kick the shit out of each other in Scotland, Lab/Lib do the same in England, and the Greens act baffled when people get angry with them for running high-profile candidates in Labour-winnable seats) — unless things change in a big way, or enough people in England recognise what a massive shitshow the Tories are and decamp to Lab/Lib en masse.

[Tjm86]

I know what you mean.  I think my thing is that round here we have a new Labour MP who is actually a local as opposed to Paratrooper Smith who tried to give Corbyn a run for his money.  In a short space of time she appears to be much more engaged with constituency issues than Smith was in his entire time as our MP.

So it may be that this is one of the things that is affecting my perception of Starmer.  It does help that Johnson is doing all the heavy lifting in digging himself into a hole.  Yes his is a preening narcissist but right now that is doing him more harm than good.  He may be bulletproof but the ricochet's are harming the Tories nonetheless.

TBH Labour is less at the moment about Starmer's leadership and more about holding the government to account across the board.  Perhaps I'm in the wrong part of the party ecosystem but a lot of comms before Corbyn went were very much in the 'cult of personality' camp.  Now it is more about issues that need to be addressed.

This is a peculiar time, just as much for politics as for everything else. I'm wondering how lockdown has affected attitudes to social media.  That being the case then, it might make the job of figuring out the mood music so much harder than before.

As for the 'double standards', no need to apologise.  I would rather someone called me out for something and put me on the spot to justify myself than let cheap shots slide.  Thanks for the provocation.

[Tjm86]

...
So, yeah, Con majority in 2024, then, albeit probably on a smaller plurality [ ... ] unless things change in a big way, or enough people in England recognise what a massive shitshow the Tories are and decamp to Lab/Lib en masse.

True but then again Labour are going to have to work hard to undo the damage Blair did to this back in '97.  Lot of burned bridges there.

We've got four years to the next GE.  In that time Brexit will become a reality, a post-pandemic global recession is going to have to be navigated, the already fragile UK economy is going to have to weather a combination of Spanish Flu / Wall St Crash and all this under a Johnson government with no seriously viable contender.

So I'm actually following the one piece of advice that I think Johnson got right (albeit for slightly different reasons than I think he had in mind):  Stay Alert - keep track of everything the buggers are doing.  Concentrate on keeping records of all this.  Save it up for the next GE campaign.

[Professor Bear]

TIL: there are still LibDems in Scotland.

I agree with your general thrust, IP, but I'm pretty sure the SNP view Indy 2 as their wedge issue rather than a fight they can/should win.  Before any Scotch boarders @ me for using "Scotch" instead of Scottish saying the SNP are using the issue cynically: give Sturgeon some credit for knowing big votes based on nationalist sentiment are not a good gamble right now, but the absolute circus they generate is great for putting clear water between nationalist parties and everyone else.

[TordelBack]

For reasons best known to the Algorithm I get Daily Express stories pushed into my news feed. I would make efforts to purge it from my life, but I've developed a sort of a
fascination for it - as if proving the reality of living in a Leftist Online Bubble, it's like little messages seeping through from a parallel reality where Brexit and Johnson's government  have been one unbroken sparkling triumph. A transdimensional glimpse of whatever the opposite of Deadworld is.

Over in Daily Express Online World the main concerns expressed about the UK Govt and its negotiators are over who will get a knighthood first after delivering Britain's trade miracle and breaking Barnier. 

Meanwhile the Meddling Irish PM is being humiliated on the hour, every hour (back in Miserable Regular World this would be the guy with a 75% approval rating despite drinking cans in the park topless with his mates during lockdown, who currently appears to be worming his way back into government despite losing an election). Better yet,  no-one there is overly troubled by coronavirus or institutional racism.

Sadly I think I prefer Daily Express World to this one.

[Definitely Not Mister Pops]

For reasons best known to the Algorithm I get Daily Express stories pushed into my news feed.

Try to keep it that way. Ye don't want to be stuck in an echo chamber.

Having said that, try to filter out the Daily mail, because half their headlines alone make ye feel like a pervy wab.

[sintec]

Sadly I think I prefer Daily Express World to this one.

Which is precisely why so many choose to live there.

[TordelBack]

Having said that, try to filter out the Daily mail, because half their headlines alone make ye feel like a pervy wab.

Alas, I would have to filter out my own mother, whose ideal opener to any conversation is to repeat whatever nonsense is in there today. I have come to view these gambits as akin to a Bene Gesserit test - show weakness by engaging,  and the Gom Jabbar of Asylum Seekers and Sharia Law will strike, ruining the whole day. 

[Professor Bear]

I walked in on my dad (a Daily Mail reader) talking to one of his similarly-aged mates today about BLM.  It was quite a thing seeing two Irish nationalists agreeing you can't tear down statues of Cromwell.
Sometimes the best you can do is just wait for the grave to claim them and hope they don't do too much damage between now and then.

[JayzusB.Christ]

Someone had mention this.

[Rately]

Someone had mention this.

I literally work with a few, different ages daily males.

Boring and tiresome wouldn't describe the "conversations."

Initially, because I've never, thankfully, worked in such an atmosphere before, I was angry and offended by their words, I still am, but I've come to pity people with such little empathy or hope or understanding. It really must be a miserable existence to have such narrow, hateful views, and always be yearning for things that never existed.