The Political Thread

[Jim_Campbell]

is it all  media hype it to be or is it really that close?

All the polls have pretty much been within their own margin of error for at least a week now. On top of that, I've heard a couple of statisticians express concerns over the sampling methods so, at this point, you might as well toss a coin to call the outcome.

Cheers

Jim

[Proudhuff]

is it all  media hype it to be or is it really that close?

All the polls have pretty much been within their own margin of error for at least a week now. On top of that, I've heard a couple of statisticians express concerns over the sampling methods so, at this point, you might as well toss a coin to call the outcome.

Cheers

Jim

or have a punt at ladbrokes 

[Old Tankie]

I've been following this fairly closely from afar (Peterborough) for some time and I'm surprised that not many people seem to have picked up on the wording of the question being asked.  Surely, "Should Scotland be an independent country" invites a Yes vote amongst the undecided?  If I was a Unionist, I'd have been much happier with "Should Scotland remain part of the United Kingdom."  Or am I just talking nonsense?

[Proudhuff]

I've been following this fairly closely from afar (Peterborough) for some time and I'm surprised that not many people seem to have picked up on the wording of the question being asked.  Surely, "Should Scotland be an independent country" invites a Yes vote amongst the undecided?  If I was a Unionist, I'd have been much happier with "Should Scotland remain part of the United Kingdom."  Or am I just talking nonsense?

You could say Mr Cameron wasn't really paying attention when he agreed this, but i couldn't possibly commet.

[Old Tankie]

Ain't that the truth, mate, I think you've got it in one!  And, if the vote is as close as the polls are predicting, it could make all the difference.

[Spikes]

Were planning a trip to Scotland, hopefully towards the end of March next year. Fingers crossed all this hullabaloo will have died down by then.

[Jim_Campbell]

You could say Mr Cameron wasn't really paying attention when he agreed this, but i couldn't possibly commet.

Well, it's an improvement on the SNP's original "Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country" but I'm going to reiterate my long-held theory that Cameron has (or rather had — see below) no interest in winning the referendum. Obviously, he has to pay lip service to the union, as leader of the Tory party, but a sudden 60-seat advantage and the opportunity ditch the LibDems in the next parliament is clearly going to be attractive.

Of course, what Call-Me-Dave had failed to consider until the last few days is that he's not actually well-liked in his own party, and there's a sizeable chunk that will happily take the electoral advantage of Scottish independence and then use the fragmentation of the union as a pretext to kick him out of the leadership and install Boris instead. I think it's this that has suddenly dawned on him and explains his sudden keenness to make the case for the Union.

Cheers

Jim

[Dog Deever]

Also a 'Yes' campaign has a more positive ring to it than a 'No' one- so some believe, and I think the SNP wanted to ensure they got the 'Yes'.
There was debate over a third Devo Max type option too, but that didn't happen- now it's trying to be pushed onto the table in the face of Tory and Labour backbench revolts, effectively changing the options as laid out in the referendum guide.
There will be no Devo-max, there will be no more powers. Cameron, Darling, Gordon, Brown and Ed Moribund can talk all they like, but...
1) The Labour Party are not in office and have no power to carry it out, so Darling, Brown and Miliband have no chips to deal with (Prescott likely ate them).

2) David Cameron is not a king. We are not ruled by his decree- new powers would have to be ratified in a democratically elected parliament and there are clear messages from both Conservative and Labour backbench mp's that they will block it. I don't blame them- meekly accepting the dictats of the party leader smacks of dictatorship.

I also agree that Jim is probably right in thinking about the Tory leadership that way- I too think Boris will be the UK's next Prime Minister in a Conservative/ UKIP alliance. This is one of the reasons, I feel, we HAVE to leave the UK.

[The Legendary Shark]

Is there any suggestion of Scotland becoming a republic? (Not been following this story, obviously, just asking.) Are there any Scottish royals you'd fancy as head of state or would you prefer a president or prime minister?
.
Will you be joining NATO? What about the UN Security Council - will you still retain your part of being a permanent member or demoted to the rank and file? I'm guessing you'll still want to be part of the Commonwealth but maybe you won't. Will you devise your own foreign policy or just do what the US tells you like the rest of us? What happens when, say, Cameron orders troops into Syria or somewhere? What will become of Scottish involvement in organisations like ESA or projects like CERN?
.
I'd also just like to don my hat of pedantry for a moment to point out that no country is really independent in this modern world. I'm wondering if the question should be about equal interdependence and be asked of everyone in the UK (and Europe, the rest of the world, etc.).

[Jim_Campbell]

I too think Boris will be the UK's next Prime Minister in a Conservative/ UKIP alliance. This is one of the reasons, I feel, we HAVE to leave the UK.

I feel much the same.

Cheers

Jim

[Frank]

Is there any suggestion of Scotland becoming a republic ...

Salmond says the Queen stays as head of state, he wants to remain in NATO (but doesn't want nukes to stay in Scotland), and how else would we win any medals in athletics if it wasn't for the Commonwealth games? This probably gives answers to most questions you or anyone else might have:

http://www.yesscotland.net/answers

[Dog Deever]

Not from the SNP- Salmonds wants to keep the queen and a reduced civil list. Other parties have different ideas, or maybe similar- we don't know what Labour, Conservatives and Liberals will do in the event. Solidarity wants a republic, I daresay SSP want that too.

Jim- I feel for the English, Welsh and N. Irish electorate who are opposed to this, we at least possibly have some means to escape- but I have no faith in their numbers or ability to stop it. With BNP having been in the picture and now UKIP as the acceptable face of that type of politics- where all those EDL and BNP voters will go now their parties are broken. Farage is a serious threat now. Like Boris- sneaked up on us like a humorous goon we can all laugh at- not even an elected UK MP, but yet gets media-time on the indy debate.

[ZenArcade]

Well said dog, the referendum has wide ranging repercussions and frankly a nation with Boris Johnson in charge on an user right ticked is unimaginable. He's a cute hour that boy....a dissembling buffon on the outside and a ruthless free marketeer on the inside.  Z

[ZenArcade]

For user right ticked. Read uber right ticket.

[Frank]

It is very hard to tell, areas differ- on the ground it looks like a massive Yes in the South. We don't do mass mob stuff up this way. There's a lot of No signs around farmlands in Aberdeenshire- but who knows? They might all be the same two or three farmers, they might not. The Yes campaign is certainly more visible up here, but I clock a fair few quietly going about their business with no badges, though possibly not as much the number of Yes ones ...

I'm sure other boarders have a clearer view of other areas of the country.

Similar in the small former mining villages of rural central Scotland; every farmer's field has a NO sign and every council flat has a YES sign and a saltire flag hanging from the window. It's incredibly rare to see a NO sign, but - since most polls agree the result is too close to call - that probably tells you more about the psychology of the debate than it does about the likely outcome.

During a conversation the other day a YES voting pal made the observation that NO voters generally tend to belong to a higher income bracket and social/professional status. I'm not sure I'd disagree.

One of the guys at my work says his wife is counting the postal vote for our local authority area, and he claims she told him it's a fifty/fifty split.