The Political Thread

[IndigoPrime]

before he showed up it used to cost several hundred pounds to fly Dublin to London

It's also worth noting that other airlines are hardly great on that route. When I flew to Dublin on BA, it was one of the absolute worst travel experiences I've had.

Still, the devalued pound and extra tourist income, eh?!

It's OK, because apparently we don't need EasyJet. Or the money from the banking sector. Or trade with the US, EU, Japan and China. I hear we might soon strike a trade deal with Australia! Well, in two and a half years. Maybe. That will surely fill the void.

You're right, I.P., everything is shit, there's no hope, we're all doomed.

Oh, give over—I never said anything of the sort. My contention, which aligns with the vast majority of people who actually do this stuff for a living, is that we have a stark choice to make. We can either go it alone, at which point we won't be doomed but will have to prepare for having a vastly different place in the world (less influence; lower living standards; heavy compromises in order to secure trade deals), or we can seek a deal that leaves us more fully immersed in the web of international relations.

Right now, we have all of our larger allies saying we should stay in the EU or at least the single market. Without doing so, we will lose countless billions. This isn't imaginary money. If London gets a smack, some will cheer, right up until they realise the massive hole in tax receipts this represents provides legitimate justification for further stripping back the state. Someone recently on Facebook posted a photo from Jersey with "see your doctor for only £30" as though this was a good thing. That could be our reality.

There is a middle ground: if Norway and others will accept it, we jump over to EEA status. We untangle some of the red tape that no-one seems to explain beyond the vaguest of terms. We get an emergency brake on EU immigration that we'll probably never actually use. And we retain our position in the single market that means our economy won't be wrecked. Or we hard Brexit and find out just what it means to be isolationist in an increasingly interconnected world, along with the harsh, stark reality that trade isn't about two countries having a chat, but massive complex webs of supply chains that benefit countries that reduce friction, not increase it.

[Theblazeuk]

The standard iPhone 7 will cost £60 more than its predecessor. The price in dollars hasn't risen.

[Prodigal2]

I think the "phoney war" brexit analogy is probably the most apt to describe the situation. So much left to unfold/unravel.

[JamesC]

The standard iPhone 7 will cost £60 more than its predecessor. The price in dollars hasn't risen.

I don't know why people buy this shit. I've got a contract at about £15 a month with a non-snazzy Samsung that seems to work absolutely fine.

[IndigoPrime]

The standard iPhone 7 will cost £60 more than its predecessor. The price in dollars hasn't risen.

Many other Apple prices have gone up—existing iPads, for example. And before people go "Oh, Apple! Idiots buying iPhones! Get Android!", plenty of Android devices with provisional RRPs have seen those go up before hitting the UK as well. Elsewhere, the new Marvel Panini line is up from £3.50 to £3.99, specifically mentioning Sterling's crash as the reason. So cheap stuff through to high-end tech. The pound in your pocket is simply worth less now — this is the new reality. We'd just best hope Sterling doesn't fall more. (Meanwhile, the Telegraph is trying to put a brave face on a £15bn hold in public finances prediction, since that's "still just half the size" of what Osborne predicted. Just half! That's OK! I'm sure we can find £15bn down the back of the sofa while multinationals relocate, investment drops like a stone, and industries we excel in from science to medicine to telly find Brits are no longer welcome.)

[The Legendary Shark]

Coming out of the EU is not isolationist. There's nothing to stop, for example, France and the UK from forming a one-off, mutually beneficial trade deal with China or the US on a specific object. Being out of the EU is good for free trade because it means we can organise our own deals without having to compromise based on what our "partners" want.

Free trade is just that, free trade. Belonging to a group of partners can have advantages in some situations and disadvantages in others. The trick is to recognise which is which, to go it alone in some situations and to form alliances in others. To be tied to an increasingly authoritarian behemoth limits options to true free trade whilst being shot of it presents new opportunities.

The USA is already distancing itself from Obomber's "back of the queue" threat which was made, presumably, to keep the UK in the EU to support the TTIP. Now that's failed, the USA is being forced to deal with the reality, which you pointed out, that we live in an interconnected world where we buy stuff from them and they buy stuff from us.

The Common Market, which is what "we" signed up for in the first place, was not a completely terrible idea but it has morphed into something else; a ruling class for Europe. We're better off out of it. If the EU is truly pro-free trade it can have no arguments against the UK trading freely with Germany, France, Holland, the USA, China or Russia beyond its purview. If, however, the EU were to impose tariffs and taxes on such trades then it is anti-free trade and a protectionist body intent on controlled trade. This will push prices up and, when the people in Europe see prices rising merely to fill the coffers of the EU, more and more of them will see the sense in exiting the EU in favour of getting back to the values and advantages of a true free trading system.

The EU is only good for large corporations and elitist interests as it allows them to consolodate their power and increase profits, not through efficiency and good business practices but through tariffs, taxes and corporate handouts. A Common Market, on the other hand, is good for the vast majority of ordinary people as it increases competition and choice and does away with arbitrary tariffs and taxes, corporate protectionism and a monopolistic superstate.

The vast majority of the "problems" Brexit is causing are artificial; large corporations, banks and elitist interests throwing spanners in the works to make it look like exiting the EU is a mistake. Because of this, the road ahead may be difficult but we must persevere. The next country to exit the EU will have it worse, as the protectionist EU interests will be getting desperate to preserve their power. The country after that will have learned from our mistakes and have an easier time of it. Thereafter, the EU will be seen for what it really is and either implode or devolve back to the useful thing it started off as being.

So yes, there may be trouble ahead - but while there's dealing and working and we get paid, let's face the music and trade...

[Hawkmumbler]

The standard iPhone 7 will cost £60 more than its predecessor. The price in dollars hasn't risen.

I don't know why people buy this shit. I've got a contract at about £15 a month with a non-snazzy Samsung that seems to work absolutely fine.

Well once my £20 Iphone inclusive contract is up in 2018 i'm jumping off the apple bandwagon save for my tablet, the air is still the best digital device for reading comics on bar none IMHO.

[Theblazeuk]

Think the point there might be getting lost

[JamesC]

Think the point there might be getting lost

Yep, I think it did briefly!
You're absolutely right though, we can see prices steadily creeping up all around us without having triggered Article 50 yet. I think many of us can expect a reduction in living standards (or at least in disposable income) in the near future.

[IndigoPrime]

There's nothing to stop, for example, France and the UK from forming a one-off, mutually beneficial trade deal with China or the US on a specific object.

Apart from the EU rules that specifically forbid EU members from doing that, no, there isn't.

Being out of the EU is good for free trade because it means we can organise our own deals without having to compromise based on what our "partners" want.

Being out of the EU is not good for free trade, because trade is not about talking to one other country about an object. We're not living in the 1800s. As the Japanese very carefully noted in their recent document, trade is about a frictionless web. Remove yourself from that and you cause friction. Then multinationals leave. It really is that simple. We leave the single market and tariffs shoot up. We leave the customs union and our goods become subject to inspections within the EU. If you're a multinational based in the UK specifically to sell to the EU, you no longer have a reason to stay. If you're a small British exporter, you're suddenly subject to massive fees regarding storage while your items are being inspected, along with costs associated with delays in a 'just in time' economy.

Free trade is just that, free trade. Belonging to a group of partners can have advantages in some situations and disadvantages in others.

The point is most countries are part of trading blocs. Even the giant that is the USA is forging major alliances. The entire world is baffled at the UK thinking it can somehow be a hub for trade, like we're still the centre of an empire, given that our current benefit is in being a bridge between the EU and various other major economies. This will be lost for no obvious benefits. (You keep mentioning advantages: so perhaps provide examples of what they are. In what way will leaving the EU be advantageous from a trade standpoint when it comes to dealing with economies that actually matter when it comes to our living standards? I'm sure Australia's quite excited about a new trade deal, but then trade with Australia amounts to piss-all in the scheme of things.)

The USA is already distancing itself from Obomber's "back of the queue" threat which was made, presumably, to keep the UK in the EU to support the TTIP.

Except that it isn't. At the G20, this was repeated. The USA stated its priority is the EU. The UK was — almost uniquely in modern history — 'out of the room' in various discussions between the US and EU. Germany and France are being checked out as the new go-to countries.

when the people in Europe see prices rising merely to fill the coffers of the EU, more and more of them will see the sense in exiting the EU in favour of getting back to the values and advantages of a true free trading system.

Only this isn't happening. Brexit is teaching the entire EU that leaving will push down living standards. For those countries not part of the Eurozone, it'll likely devalue your currency too. Since the referendum, support for the EU has grown rapidly. Countries where there was interest in a Brexit-style referendum have broadly lost interest. There's still a big element of dissatisfaction, but that's mainly from the far-right, using Brexit as a flag for what they perceive as a better future. When the UK is being held aloft as a shining example for the likes of Le Pen, we should really consider what the hell we stand for.

The EU is only good for large corporations and elitist interests as it allows them to consolodate their power and increase profits

And yet many people I know who run small businesses say the exact opposite. They say it's enabled them to trade more easily, to find workers more easily. Paperwork has dropped. Ease of trade has increased. Many are now looking to a more problematic future. A couple have already started making contingency plans for if the UK exists the single market. (One is relocating to the EU. Another is going to close if they have to.)

The vast majority of the "problems" Brexit is causing are artificial; large corporations, banks and elitist interests throwing spanners in the works to make it look like exiting the EU is a mistake.

This is absolute bollocks. This is the sort of thing I keep hearing from a certain Leave voter: you're talking Britain down! You want the country to fail so you can yell I told you so! What utter tosh. The reason people are trying desperately to cling on to the single market is because we know what a huge clusterfuck leaving it is going to be. And the same's true for the EU as a whole. We are too entangled. We have a civil service that's been pared back. Do we really want to spend an entire decade on sorting an avoidable mess out, on the basis that we might get some benefits of some kind that, frankly, all seem a bit vague and wooly? And your point about the EU favouring the rich — what do you think's going to happen if we hard Brexit? Right-wing Tories are thrilled at the prospect of turning this country into a Singapore-style experiment.

The next country to exit the EU will have it worse, as the protectionist EU interests will be getting desperate to preserve their power.

I predict we won't see that happen in our lifetimes if the UK hard Brexits. If we shift to the EEA, we might see other economies follow suit, leading to a 'core' and 'outer' EU, but I suspect that's unlikely.

[IndigoPrime]

I think many of us can expect a reduction in living standards (or at least in disposable income) in the near future.

Which are essentially the same thing. And unless you don't buy fuel, electricity or food, it's already happening, unless you're fortunate enough to have had a pay rise recently.

[The Legendary Shark]

"Apart from the EU rules that specifically forbid
EU members from doing that, no, there isn't."

Which is protectionism and not free trade.

"We leave the single market and tariffs shoot up. We leave the customs union and our goods become subject to inspections within the EU."

Which is protectionism and not free trade.

"If you're a small British exporter, you're suddenly subject to massive fees regarding storage while your items are being inspected..."

Which is protectionism and not free trade.

"For those countries not part of the Eurozone, it'll likely devalue your currency too."

Currency values set by the privately owned central banks with a vested interest in consolodating their power. Works. Spanner.

"And yet many people I know who run small businesses say the exact opposite."

Because they are coming outside the EU's protectionist mechanisms and being unilaterally punished for it. Works. Spanner.

"One is relocating to the EU. Another is going to close if they have to."

In order to take advantage of EU protectionism. Works. Spanner.

"This is the sort of thing I keep hearing from a certain Leave voter: you're talking Britain down! You want the country to fail so you can yell I told you so!"

Now, that is bollocks. I'm talking EU protectionism down, not Britain.

"Right-wing Tories are thrilled at the prospect of turning this country into a Singapore-style experiment."

Which, if you believe in democratic government (which you clearly do), should be easily avoided.

"I predict we won't see that happen in our
lifetimes if the UK hard Brexits."

I predict that we will. The EU experiment has run its course and now the challenge is surviving its death throes.

[The Legendary Shark]

"As the Japanese very carefully noted in their recent document, trade is about a frictionless web. Remove yourself from that and you cause friction."

What a horrendously poor analogy. Webs are sticky and if you get caught in one you get eaten by the spider, if you escape, you're safe. This analogy suits my argument far more aptly than yours.

[NapalmKev]

"As the Japanese very carefully noted in their recent document, trade is about a frictionless web. Remove yourself from that and you cause friction."

What a horrendously poor analogy. Webs are sticky and if you get caught in one you get eaten by the spider, if you escape, you're safe. This analogy suits my argument far more aptly than yours.

Talking of bad analogies...

How do you feel about the Internet? The World-wide web that links even the remotest nations of the World. Is that something we should remove ourselves from?

[IndigoPrime]

Which is protectionism and not free trade.

It is the situation within which the UK currently exists. I know you have some utopian mindset of a perfect future where everyone gets along, donates taxes, and so on, but we do not live in that world. Right now, we live in a world where the existing blocs matter. We're about to leave one, to which our entire economic and political structures are entangled through decades of legislation and deals. At best, even optimists reckon we might claw our way back to where we are now in the best part of a decade, with the in-between times being extremely tough. And at the end of it there is no guarantee whatsoever there will be any concrete benefits.

Currency values set by the privately owned central banks with a vested interest in consolodating their power. Works. Spanner.

It. Doesn't. Matter. You act as though none of these things exists, because you don't want them to. That banks have vested interests is true. That countries have vested interests is true. But the net result is the money we now earn is worth less. Savings are worth less. Possessions are worth less. Wages are worth less. I know you love to hand-wave these things away and say something libertarian, but that means fuck-all to people who are now finding it tougher to support their families, pay bills, and looking towards a future where basic state services will be further stripped back.

Now, that is bollocks. I'm talking EU protectionism down, not Britain.

You misunderstand. Your responses are echoes of Leave voters saying those criticising leaving the EU are causing the problems.

What a horrendously poor analogy. Webs are sticky and if you get caught in one you get eaten by the spider, if you escape, you're safe. This analogy suits my argument far more aptly than yours.

Really? You're just being an arse for the sake of it now. 'Web' doesn't just mean a sticky arachnid's happy home. It can mean a mesh, a lattice, a network, and a nexus. We have been warned, multiple times, that our current position in the single market is the main reason for a great many companies being located here. It is a red line. If we remove ourselves from that, many of these companies will leave, because there will not only be no benefit to them being here, but also it would adversely affect their business dealings with the EU through tariffs and customs issues.

This isn't negativity. This is reality. (And even people bleating about WTO fallback being good should be aware we are currently members through the EU. Our accessing even the WTO isn't guaranteed without a ton of concessions by countries that want something from us, and who could otherwise veto our membership.)