The Political Thread

[CalHab]

I feel a bit humanity sick that so many people would vote for such an openly corrupt, hateful bully. You'd think I'd have gotten over Boris's win by now, but there it is.

People/voters keep finding new ways to disappoint.

[Lorenzo]

If you want an illustration of how friggin' insane the electoral college system is, Biden's popular vote figure now stands at 69,551,088 — more than Obama in 2008, making it the largest number of votes for a presidential candidate in history.

And yet the result is still too close to call.

(FWIW, Biden's ahead in Nevada and Wisconsin, and fractionally ahead in Michigan, but his lead is widening there as the count goes on. Those three states would give him exactly 270 electoral college votes.)

I don't care how big Biden's popular vote margin is, as long as he wins the vote!

Even Kennedy only won the popular vote by 112,827     The smallest margin in the modern era.

[TordelBack]

I don't care how big Biden's popular vote margin is, as long as he wins the vote!

The 'popular vote v. electoral college' stuff is just a peculiarity of the compromises in a federal electoral system: we all have these kind of historical idiosyncrasies*, and we all like to interpret them as unfair, when in fact the alternatives are often just differently unfair**.

The bigger issue is the Senate results, which could well destroy a new administration's ability to do anything.  It's here JFK's tiny margin becomes relevant: he was unable to get any of his progressive proposals through Congress in his short tenure, and it's really only posthumously that he became an effective President.



* An example would be Ireland's most recent election, where many decided to present 1st Preferences in the STV-PR system as a kind of proxy FPTP, and thus evidence that their preferred party had "won" and were being undemocratically excluded from power, despite the system being specifically designed not to work that way.
** This is not the case with gerrymandering and appalling voter suppression, for which there are no excuses. 

[radiator]

A corporate, centre-right Democrat like Biden was always going to be a really hard sell, which was why so many of us were deeply anxious when he secured the nomination back at the start of the year. While he isn't as reviled as Hilary Clinton, he still personifies a system that a huge section of this country feels, rightly or wrongly, has turned its back on them. If there's one single lesson to be taken from the last five years of US politics, it's that a hell of a lot of people aren't happy, and want change, not a return to the status quo. There is a reason why relative unknowns like Andrew Yang did comparatively well in the primaries when the more established names dropped like flies with almost zero support.

If only there were another possible Democratic candidate - someone who has Trump's outsider, anti-establishment status and rabid core base of grassroots support, but is also a broadly liked and widely popular figure. Someone who actually has some solid policy ideas vs just being the 'safe choice' and 'not Trump', and could, maybe, just maybe, stand a chance of actually engaging with and winning over a significant number of Trump voters?

Nope, I can't think of anyone either!

[Definitely Not Mister Pops]

I was going to act shocked that Americans wouldn't vote out a shower of hugely incompetent clowns who can't govern and don't care about their constituents. I was going to smugly denigrate the people of America who put tribalism over their own interests.

But I live in Belfast...

[Funt Solo]

Nope, I can't think of anyone either!

I suppose the tragedy is that someone like Sanders (who would actually fight really hard for working class rights) gets dismissed as being some kind of crazy left-wing radical whilst Trump (who says he'll drain the swamp when he really means that he'll set up shop there) is somewhat adored by a large section of the working class, who he didn't actually deliver for because he gave huge tax breaks to the wealthy and left poor people to die of Covid (whilst doing his best to take away their health care and force them into unwanted pregnancies).

It's difficult to feel sorry for people who vote for their own worst interests.

Maybe ... Jimmy Kimmel?

[IndigoPrime]

See also: UK seats that flipped Lab to Con.

[Colin YNWA]

Hi folks,

Don't venture into this dark realm often but come here to ask you to settle an old man's nerves. Should I be worried about Nevada? The margins make me worry about Nevada. I know there are other options BUT Nevada seems the most clear cut for a Biden win. North Carolina is pretty much gone to Trump, will someone call Alaska already, Georgia feels like an outside chance at best now with so little left to count. Pennsylvannia, well the ground to cover is still pretty big that even though closing I don't want to be relying on that.

Most commentators seem to think its all but done, BUT I'm nervous as I can see a very clear way for Trump to snatch this. I'm looking to Nevada to settle those nerves therefore BUT man it looks very close with a lot to count and a lot of that counting seeming to be in rural counties where Trump does well - even if they don't have big populations. Anyway should I be worrying?

Nervous of Sheffield.

[Jim_Campbell]

See also: UK seats that flipped Lab to Con.

I've never seen any real analysis of where those Labour voters went in 2019. Not to the Conservatives, since their share of the vote barely moved. I'm assuming the remainers went Lib Dem or Green because Labour weren't remain-ey enough. The leavers? Like I say, they didn't go to the Tories (unless defecting Tory remainers cancelled them out, in which case, where did the Tories go?)... did they go BXP? Stay at home? It's curious.

[Jim_Campbell]

Don't venture into this dark realm often but come here to ask you to settle an old man's nerves. Should I be worried about Nevada? The margins make me worry about Nevada. I know there are other options BUT Nevada seems the most clear cut for a Biden win. North Carolina is pretty much gone to Trump, will someone call Alaska already, Georgia feels like an outside chance at best now with so little left to count. Pennsylvannia, well the ground to cover is still pretty big that even though closing I don't want to be relying on that.

Basically, Trump has to win everything that's yet to declare in order to win. Wiser heads than mine seem to think Nevada is reasonably safe — Biden's lead has certainly remained constant as the votes are counted. As to the others, I can only quote an American poster from a different forum I frequent (as of about two hours ago):

I've fallen into spreadsheet land tracking land as numbers come in all evening.

Assuming the number of outstanding votes is somewhat accurate, Biden is going to take GA and PA. In PA, he needs ~55-60% of the remaining vote to go his way, and he's been getting in the mid-70's with each update.

Similarly in GA, Biden needs closer to 60% to overtake Trump and has been pulling mid-70's to mid-80's with each update.

TBH, I'm still nervous that no one seems to be looking at Arizona, which uncalled itself because they discovered uncounted ballots and are still counting.

Georgia is looking really tight, TBH, but it's not mathematically improbably that there's an upset in North Carolina (80K lead to Trump but ~200K ballots still to count).

[Colin YNWA]

Interesting to see more detailed takes on the data. i did some quick maths this morning, which is where my nerves come from. But seeing those vote rates in states is a little reassuring that some votes might still be in the balance I thought were gone.

Hadn't thought about Arizona as I'm going off the Guardian map and while Biden has a decent lead as you say the vote count % still leaves a worryingly open field.

[Rately]

In 2021 the Republican Party will have more Qanon Senators in House Of Representatives, than African American Senators.

America, you really, really need to start educating, force Facebook and Twitter etc. to enforce harsher crackdowns on what i would love to deem fringe thinking, now clearly not, and discover the decency and empathy that just over half the voters have.

Conspiracy theories, guns.. Christ. We could be headed for dark times.

[sheridan]

In 2021 the Republican Party will have more Qanon Senators in House Of Representatives, than African American Senators.

They've got six men called John - I'm assuming that's more than they've got African American senators?

[sheridan]

In 2021 the Republican Party will have more Qanon Senators in House Of Representatives, than African American Senators.

They've got six men called John - I'm assuming that's more than they've got African American senators?

Going from the photos* on wikipedia they've got one non-WASP senator.

* not that photos can reveal everything about somebody's cultural heritage, but it's better than nothing (as long as you bear in mind that it's only just better than nothing).

[TordelBack]

I doubt suppression of online-fueled nutjobbery will ever do anything more than boost its support.

Education is a solution, but a very long-term solution. I got into an argument (on TikTok!) with some bright 20somethings who insisted they were ignorant about politics because they were never taught about the Irish electoral or legislative systems in school. When I linked them to the outline of the compulsory Civic, Social and Political Education 100-hour course in the Junior Cycle curriculum that they'd all done in the last 10 years, and the relevant strand that covers all that, they insisted their teachers hadn't taught it. This may well be the case (which would be a disgrace), or it may be that they just paid no attention, but the point is that making inroads via formal education is a long uphill battle.

So it strikes me that the best medium-term approach is to create an alternative position that offers as much as the Trumps and Farages pretend to do. Make equality, community, climate, social services, as seductively, selfishly beneficial to the individual voter as "taking back control". That means simplifying messages, being clear, being humble, and being united behind a distinctive, aspirational set of ideas that can be borne out by results. Trying to be more like the other side, to walk a middle path,  or trying to be morally purer-than-thou, or being sneeringly intellectual about the morons isn't going to cut it: the big lies are always going to be more appealing.

It has to be an alternative populism based around real goals. Easy-peasy or what!