The Political Thread

[The Legendary Shark]

From Rationalwiki:

The backfire effect occurs when, in the face of contradictory evidence, established beliefs do not change but actually get stronger. The effect has been demonstrated experimentally in psychological tests, where subjects are given data that either reinforces or goes against their existing biases - and in most cases people can be shown to increase their confidence in their prior position regardless of the evidence they were faced with.
In a pessimistic sense, this makes most refutations useless.

Good one, Prof - one for us all to be aware of. Humans do so hate to be wrong about things, I know I do, it's probably one of our greatest, and most dangerous, faults.

[Old Tankie]

Hi Jim, this will be my last post of the day, as I am getting tired. I don't believe that the economy will suffer in the long run, in fact, I think it will prosper. The ability to make trade deals, getting rid of pointless  regulations, ability to control our borders, our own fishing and farming policies, our tax rates, and many other things.

The democratic side is important to me, if the people that I can vote for can be out voted by people I can't vote for, that is unacceptable to me.

As for the things you spoke about, that I am not bothered either way, the make up of the UK is the main one.

[Jim_Campbell]

As for the things you spoke about, that I am not bothered either way, the make up of the UK is the main one.

I don't think you can wave the patriotic flag and then say that you're unconcerned about the break-up of the Union or re-igniting the Troubles in NI.

[sheridan]

Hi Jim, this will be my last post of the day, as I am getting tired. I don't believe that the economy will suffer in the long run, in fact, I think it will prosper. The ability to make trade deals, getting rid of pointless  regulations

Pointless regulations like human rights?  Or like all the 'straight banana' lies that were made up by the British press?

Oh, and that thing about the economy - which politician was it the other week boasting about how we, as the sixth largest economy in the world, would be able to dictate our own terms on trade deals (forgetting that this time last year we were fourth largest)?

[Dandontdare]

Let's just say that I don't believe some of the things you say will happen, will happen, and I don't care about some of the others.
Employment is at record levels, interest rates are low, the economy is growing, inflation is below the Bank of England target, where is the disaster? Oh I know we haven't left yet.

Why is low interest rates a good thing? I live within my means and have meagre savings - I'm getting screwed while people who live on loans and credit are doing great, even though rising inflation makes it harder and harder for them ever to repay the debt - wasn't that what caused the last financial crash?

Inflation is not "below Bank of England targets" - it is below what the Bank of England predicted it might be by now - it's shit, but they predicted it may be shitter. But it's still shit - inflation has been higher than wage growth for the past 9 years - so that's 9 years while most working people have had am effective wage cut year after year. Only bosses who set their own pay have had a wage increase.

High employment isn't great if people are on sub-minimum wage, zero hours, gig-economy contracts.

And I've never understood this obsession with "growth" - nothing can keep growing forever, if economic growth is your only target, you're just setting yourself up for boom-and-bust (and no, I didn't believe Gordon Brown when he said Labour had ended that)

And as you say, that's before we've even left.

[Dandontdare]

jsut noticed later post:

I don't believe that the economy will suffer in the long run, in fact, I think it will prosper. The ability to make trade deals, getting rid of pointless  regulations, ability to control our borders, our own fishing and farming policies, our tax rates, and many other things.

Ability to make trade deals : Why would our former partners (now competitors) want to give us a good deal? Any countries that are deeply invested in the European ideal (ie the most powerful ones, Germany/France) have a vested interest in screwing us to discourage others from following our example. Others will just screw us because they know we NEED a deal and they'll dictate the terms. SO yes, we will be able to negotiate our own deals - but instead of negotiating as a massive powerful block, we'll be a small fish and therefore ina  much weaker negotiating position.

Getting rid of pointless regulations - these are not pointless, they stop companies from selling us dangerous goods, employers from killing their workers  and farmers from fucking the entire food chain by poisoning the bees. The govt has already said that we will KEEP all these regulations, until there is a case for changing them, so nothing will change on that front. If we want to sell goods or trade in Europe we'll still have to follow their regulations - but if we scarp them then dodgy companies abroad will be able to sell us dodgy goods that they could never get away with in Europe.

Fishing - yeah, that's not likely to get better - likely to be one of the "compromises" we agree to get the headliner items - https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/28/british-fishermen-warned-brexit-will-not-mean-greater-catches

Farming policies - so the farm subsidies will come direct from UK taxation rather than from the money we send to Brussels. Woohoo. The British govt has been incapable of administrating he current system, will they do any better on their own? - farmers are experiencing delays of months or years in getting their money, not because of Europe, but because of DEFRA incompetence (see the last year's worth or "Old muckspreader" columns in Private Eye for the full info on that farce)

Tax Rates - these have never been controlled by Europe

W're running pout of positives here - maybe one of these "many other things" will make it all worthwhile?

[IndigoPrime]

Farming is done for in the UK. The government has said it won't match EU subsidies beyond 2020, and we'll be soon in a position when it and the health service will be sacrificial lambs to get a deal with Trump's USA.

[The Legendary Shark]

I don't think farming in the UK can be "done for" - not as long as people need to eat, anyway.

[JayzusB.Christ]

In today's post-fucking-truth political climate, I am pleased to see that Paul Nuttall's lies are negatively affecting his reputation, and as such he's coming apart at the seams. It seems a rare thing these days, when people seem to be able to say what they want to get into power and nobody seems to care whether it's true or not.

Also, thanks for your post, DDD, seriously.  I have yet to see any arguments as clear and concise from any pro-Brexiters.  I would be pleased if you were wrong, but so far, you're not.

[Old Tankie]

Some pretty lmpressive factual bloopers there DDD, the Bank of England does have an inflation target and it is 2 percent, wages are growing faster than inflation, and the EU does control some aspects of VAT.

[Jim_Campbell]

I don't think farming in the UK can be "done for" - not as long as people need to eat, anyway.

The average age of a farmer in the U.K. is 59.

[Jim_Campbell]

the EU does control some aspects of VAT.

VAT is the government's third largest revenue stream. If you think some kind of sales tax is going to go away post-Brexit, or that the government is going to reduce it in any way, you're in for a rude awakening.

[Old Tankie]

I didn't say it would, I was responding to DDD saying the EU has no control over taxes, it does.

[Goaty]

I didn't say it would, I was responding to DDD saying the EU has no control over taxes, it does.

Did you get that from same information as £350 million per week for NHS?

[Dandontdare]

Some pretty lmpressive factual bloopers there DDD, the Bank of England does have an inflation target and it is 2 percent, wages are growing faster than inflation, and the EU does control some aspects of VAT.

I don't know much about Bank of England targets but "wages are growing faster than inflation" is pure bullshit

No Answer on the other points?