The Political Thread

[Old Tankie]

And if the UK leaves the EU house prices will plummet, great news for the grandchildren.

[TordelBack]

And if the UK leaves the EU house prices will plummet, great news for the grandchildren.

Heh, yeah I had to laugh at that one!  Oh noes, maybe the cost of accommodation will come down for those that don't already have a property portfolio!

[Hawkmumbler]

And if the UK leaves the EU house prices will plummet, great news for the grandchildren.

Heh, yeah I had to laugh at that one!  Oh noes, maybe the cost of accommodation will come down for those that don't already have a property portfolio!

Heh! I've just spent a week in Malta with a man, I discovered quickly, was a property shark buying up cheap flats and doing them up and selling tham at 6 times the original price. Wondered why me, an embitered student in need of affordable accommodation, took a dislikeing to him!

Lower property prices for all would be nice.

[IndigoPrime]

Property prices plummeting won't be much help when the entire economy goes to hell. This was clearly GO appealing to investors, noting that if they vote out, their investments will be hit.

As for Turkey, the response to that is maddening. Turkey applied to join the EU in 1987. It has since completed ONE chapter. ONE. Chances of it completing the rest in a few years? Zero. Chances of that happening within a decade? Zero. Chances of it happening ever? Slim to none. By contrast, Iceland took about three years to rifle through nearly a dozen chapters and, had it continued with its EU membership, would probably have joined by now, or certainly within the lifetime of its current government. Likewise, you can imagine if Norway decided on full EU membership, it'd take a matter of a few years. You'd also think people in the UK would understand the basic concept of membership veto, given that the UK's own membership application was vetoed to begin with. ARGH.

Elsewhere, it's staggering to see the exit arguments. The little government leaflet that plopped through the door has no sources whatsoever for the claims (in marked contrast to the in side), and I'm seeing a lot of Brexit people now argue we should just go for it because "we can always rejoin later". Sure. I can't imagine there being anything other than unanimous support for the country that fucked the EU. And I'll bet we'll get all our exemptions back too, such as retaining Sterling! Because UNICORNS and MAGIC BEANS.

I'm now finding this whole process profoundly fucking depressing. So many people who clearly have made up their minds to vote out are fishing around saying it's SO CONFUSING trying to find out information about some obscure piece of EU funding and therefore the EU is evil. My wife's Facebook timeline is full of this kind of crap, often — most astonishingly — from people born overseas.

And then I finally got the question from my wife this morning (who is an EEA national): what will we do if Brexit is the vote? I have no fucking idea, and it makes me terribly upset about the thought of leaving this country due to a bunch of Tories wanting to fight a proxy war under the guise of a referendum, and some mop-haired arsehole switching sides because he realises he might just be PM because of it. I just hope the bookies and Bloomberg are on the money, because the alternative is too heartbreaking to contemplate.

[Old Tankie]

Make your mind up, the U.K. is either a poxy little country that could not survive outside the EU or it is so important that if it left it will have fucked the EU.

[IndigoPrime]

Make your mind up, the U.K. is either a poxy little country that could not survive outside the EU or it is so important that if it left it will have fucked the EU.

I've never at any point stated that the UK cannot "survive" outside of the EU. Of course it can. The point isn't about survival, however, but whether or not we will be better off or even able to maintain the status quo. The vast majority of experts in the field from around the world quite clearly state that Brexit will be bad for the UK economy—it's just a matter of how bad.

And of course the UK leaving the EU would adversely affect it. Again, that's not something anyone appears to be arguing against. A great many predictions are painting a pretty awful lose-lose scenario, that may even have wider impacts on the world economy.

To my mind, much of the Brexit argument is veering dangerously close to anti-vaxx or climate change denial, with a nasty undercurrent of racism. A new report arrives stating that Brexit will have negative effects. It's a conspiracy! They're all out to get us! All of those carefully sourced documents are WRONG because BIAS! The establishment is forcing our hand! (Never mind that those on the out side include plenty of rich white men who are the definition of establishment.)

[TordelBack]

To my mind, much of the Brexit argument is veering dangerously close to anti-vaxx or climate change denial, with a nasty undercurrent of racism. A new report arrives stating that Brexit will have negative effects. It's a conspiracy! They're all out to get us! All of those carefully sourced documents are WRONG because BIAS! The establishment is forcing our hand! (Never mind that those on the out side include plenty of rich white men who are the definition of establishment.)

Very much this. All my social media sources are full of this. If you asked me to guess right at this moment I'd say it will be a 'Leave' result, purely because aside from the xenophobe vote people are (yet again) rejecting complexity, or interpreting it as conspiracy, and just gobbling down lies to support this (not aiming this at Tankie or anyone else here).

The Turkey business is insane - even assuming such a thing is undesirable and/or vaguely likely, there's no way Turkey could join the EU against firm UK opposition, NONE, and anyone who tells you different is lying, but equally there is no way the UK could prevent Turkish accession if they leave - and in the fears of xenophobes, that's going to mean millions of those evil darkies piling up on your porous borders. Within the EU you get to influence its direction; outside you're just its neighbour, with its burger wrappers chucked over your wall.

Obviously my concerns as a non-UK citizen or resident are irrelevant, but as a small business in a closely-linked state I am envisaging economic  ruin in the short to medium term. We're still struggling under the last catastrophe and now you're willing another on us, with no clear vision of what it is you're actually going to achieve.

[Old Tankie]

The UK will not vote to leave the EU.

[Grugz]

dunno,if Austria does what it might be doing it might be a good idea...

[Dandontdare]

The UK will not vote to leave the EU.

I think you're right - the brexitters and ukippers shout the loudest and fill up every news comments section, making it seem like everybody is keen to leave, but I think it is the quieter millions who will keep us in.

[IndigoPrime]

Perhaps. People talked in the general election about shy Tories. Who are the shy people this time? Tories who want to stay in? People who secretly want to vote out? Hard to tell. The Mail on Sunday's softening stance is very interesting though.

[Steve Green]

Article here from Roy Greenslade

http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2016/may/23/if-so-many-newspapers-back-brexit-why-will-remain-carry-the-day

BTW, the independent edged out the far right candidate in Austria.

[The Legendary Shark]

If I cared about this, I'd vote to leave - purely because of my well-known views on centralized power. If asked to guess, however, I'd guess the vote will be to stay because people generally don't like change.

[The Legendary Shark]

Of course, if the UK does exit the EU, Sterling will decline by 12% over the next two years because:

I trust this is sufficiently clear.

(Source.)

[Hawkmumbler]

The end of that equation I believe stands for Eijit*. 


*Stolen jokes are best jokes.