The Political Thread

[Old Tankie]

TB, why would the EU want to stop trading with an independent United Kingdom when the UK had a trade deficit with the EU in 2014 of 61 billion pounds?  And why would the eleven thousand UK citizens claiming the dole in your country be affected?  After all, the UK would continue paying unemployed Irish citizens in the UK.

I'll use whatever phase I want.  I happen to think that Project Fear will work again.  I predicted 54 to 46 on the Scottish Referendum on here and I'll predict the same figures for the EU Ref. 

[IndigoPrime]

At no point leading up to Scotland's referendum was there the kind of lead seen in polling now. I hope Brits will do their usual thing and stick with the status quo. Sterling's already taken a massive kicking as it is, and the UK's so reliant on financial industries that quitting the EU is a colossal and unnecessarily reckless risk. I just don't see it though. And if we think our economy's in the shit now, it'll be nothing compared to the years of uncertainly that will follow an 'exit' vote.

[The Legendary Shark]

Makes no difference whether the people stealing your money and pushing you around are based in London or Brussels. A state is a state - there's not one to mend another - they all expect you to bow before them, whether they deserve your fealty or not.

EU membership is about a hell of a lot more than who runs the show. Hell, I'm married to an EEA citizen, and although even UKIP has said it would grudgingly 'allow' existing EEA citizens to remain in the UK, there has been talk merely of grace periods. That is terrifying.

Exactly my point. Somebody else telling you who you can and can't marry, where you can and can't live, who you can and can't trade with, where you can and can't go and so on. And that somebody, whether they be in London, Brussels or Mega City One has no more right to dictate those things to you than I do.

The truly terrifying part is that so many people believe these "rulers" do have those rights while the rest of us must obey.

[Old Tankie]

Hi IndigoPrime.  The polls are all over the place at the moment but I am convinced the vote will be to stay in.  You've got Dave and Boy George, the CBI, and many others in the Establishment on the In side.  Plague and Pestilence will spread across the land if we dare to leave the EU!!!!  Isn't the weak pound good for exports?  The scare stories from some in the In camp really make me smile.  As I've said before, why would the EU stop trading with us.  We are a massive net importer from the EU.  And as for people getting thrown out of various countries, we have many non-EU migrants living here and across the EU.

Leaving the EU doesn't mean we leave the European Court of Human Rights.  The UK or any EU country wouldn't just be allowed to throw millions of people out on a whim.

[IndigoPrime]

The truly terrifying part is that so many people believe these "rulers" do have those rights while the rest of us must obey.

In an ideal world, we'd be able to move anywhere we like and do — within reason — whatever we want. Tearing down the EU make that ideal a little further away.

The polls are all over the place at the moment but I am convinced the vote will be to stay in.  You've got Dave and Boy George, the CBI, and many others in the Establishment on the In side.

Boris could be key. But much of the press is viciously anti, and I'm seeing a lot of people saying they'll vote no just to stick it to Cameron. What japes!

Isn't the weak pound good for exports?

Depends what you're exporting. We export a ton of financial and other services, based in corporations that have been quite clear they'll leave the UK if the UK leaves the EU. In the case of finance, they may have to for legal reasons.

why would the EU stop trading with us

It wouldn't. But the point is that it may trade with us less and trade is likely to be more complex, thereby reducing profits and increasing administration.

And as for people getting thrown out of various countries, we have many non-EU migrants living here and across the EU.

Which is meaningless in the context of what I said. I don't really fancy the prospect of an extremely stressful, time-consuming and uncertain procedure to remain here with my wife if the UK (or, more accurate, England, because the second Brexit happened Scotland would kick off) went full batshit. And the way things are heading, full batshit in this area seems very possible indeed.

Leaving the EU doesn't mean we leave the European Court of Human Rights.  The UK or any EU country wouldn't just be allowed to throw millions of people out on a whim.

Not immediately, no. And why would the UK remain in the ECHR if it quits the EU? Isn't the ECHR considered one of the big bads by many of the Brexit crowd, including the MPs?

Also, the EFTA suggestion (not by you, but by a great many commentators and UKIP dolts) is truly mind-boggling. The idea EFTA would even let in the UK is quite astonishing, given how totally dominant the UK would be. But UKIP's argument regarding steering committees and the importance of the organisation is just astonishing. It's four small countries that still pay a shit-load of cash to the EU, get almost no say, and have to implement the majority of policy anyway.

[Dandontdare]

TB, why would the EU want to stop trading with an independent United Kingdom when the UK had a trade deficit with the EU in 2014 of 61 billion pounds? 

has anyone said they'll stop trading with us?

Leaving the EU just means that existing trade treaties will have to be renegotiated and since we need them more than they need tiny old Britain, they will be in a position negotiate these deals to their own advantage. And also, all the trade deals that the EU has with the aft east and the Americas will also have to be renegotiated - do you honestly think the UK will be in as strong a negotiating position as the whole of Europe?

[TordelBack]

... why would the eleven thousand UK citizens claiming the dole in your country be affected?  After all, the UK would continue paying unemployed Irish citizens in the UK.

Well there's only about 2,000 of those, in a state with 15 times the population, so fair's fair - proportionally there are twice as many UK claimants in Ireland as there are EU claimants in the UK.  But we struggle on, somehow. 

As noted, we have bilateral agreements regarding all this anyway, but I mentioned it in the light of repeated claims in the long lead in to this referendum about the huge burden of EU 'benefit tourists' when in fact the UK holds its own in this regard. And yet leaving the EU will not prevent the arrival of one single non-EU illegal immigrant.

And incidentally, if you think trading outside the EU is the same as trading within it, I suspect you've never tried to do it.

[Old Tankie]

Hi DDD  Trade negotiations go on all the time.  A huge amount of EU red tape costs small and medium sized businesses a fortune.  The EU certainly would want to trade with us, its share of World trade is falling fast. And the idea that the EU, with over 15 million of its citizens unemployed, would not want to trade with a well-established trading nation of 64 million people doesn't ring true.  It would make trading with the UK as easy as possible or have to tell many of its citizens why they've lost their jobs!

Hi IndigoPrime  Thanks for your reply.  We're going round in circles, we're not going to agree.  I respect your position although I don't agree with much of what you're saying, but thanks anyway for an interesting debate.

Hi TB  My main gripe with the EU isn't about immigration, I've only mentioned it because other people have.  My argument against the EU is that it's undemocratic.  With majority voting in many areas, people that I had a chance to vote for can be out voted by people I didn't have a chance to vote for.  At the end of the day, I believe in the nation state and I do not believe in a European union.  Sort out the democracy question and I might change my mind.

At no point have I said that leaving the EU would be easy but overall I think it's the best course for the United Kingdom.

[Dandontdare]

Hi DDD  Trade negotiations go on all the time.  A huge amount of EU red tape costs small and medium sized businesses a fortune.  The EU certainly would want to trade with us, its share of World trade is falling fast. And the idea that the EU, with over 15 million of its citizens unemployed, would not want to trade with a well-established trading nation of 64 million people doesn't ring true.  It would make trading with the UK as easy as possible or have to tell many of its citizens why they've lost their jobs!

again in case you missed it NOBODY HAS REMOTELY SUGGESTED THEY WILL STOP TRADING WITH US. The point is, they will be in a much stronger position to dictate the terms than we will.

[Old Tankie]

And l have just explained why I don't agree with you.

[TordelBack]

At the end of the day, I believe in the nation state and I do not believe in a European union. 

As I don't believe in the nation state, generally regarding it as a divisive and limiting conceit, I suspect we're unlikely to agree!

[Jim_Campbell]

One more thing the 'out' brigade never seem keen to address: there are more British ex-pats in Europe than there are EU migrants in the UK. Those taking the hardest line on EU immigrant post-exit are seriously talking about deporting hundreds of thousands of working, tax-paying people and in return accepting the repatriation of a couple of million largely retired ex-pats, with the attendant implications for the NHS and social care services.

There is literally no upside to EU exit, other than pandering to the isolationist fantasies of Little Englanders.

Would I invent the EU as it is now, if I was starting from scratch? No. Do I think it could use root-and-branch reform? Yes. Do either of those things make a convincing case for leaving? No.

As an aside, there was an interesting piece tucked away in the later part of the evening on Radio 4 a few weeks ago where they were talking to politicians and business people from Norway, whose non-membership of the EU is often cited as an example of how we could continue to trade with Europe exactly as before. Turns out, the Norwegian experience is exactly what's been suggested would happen to the UK — they still have to jump through all the legislative hoops that would come with EU membership, but without any ability influence the legislation. All the disadvantages and none of the benefits.

Cheers

Jim

[Old Tankie]

Here you go with the insults again.

[Frank]

My argument against the EU is that it's undemocratic.  With majority voting in many areas, people that I had a chance to vote for can be out voted by people I didn't have a chance to vote for.  At the end of the day, I believe in the nation state and I do not believe in a European union.  Sort out the democracy question and I might change my mind.

Hi, Tankie. The irony is, everything you say applies equally (and more so) at the level of the nation state.

I don't think it really matters much either way; I share your distrust of tales claiming life outside the EU will be a barren, howling wilderness, but the Eurosceptic argument contains within it the admission that we'd require a series of independently negotiated agreements with the EU that replicate those which are already in place.

I think the OUT vote could win, simply because those against the EU are filled with a passionate intensity that will carry them to the voting station, determined to deliver a bloody nose to Donald Tusk. I'm basically in favour of something like the EU, but I'd be lying if I said I can work up much enthusiasm for its current form.

[Old Tankie]

Thank you, Butch, for your comments, done without insult. I appreciate it.