Dredd (2012)

[radiator]

Out of my friends and acquaintances, one is a massive Dredd fan - almost as much as me, and he is rabidly looking forward to the movie.

Two others are into Dredd more casually (one an old-school 2000ad fan who has read a few Dredd comics, and the other a recent convert who has read a few Case Files) and though both will be going to see the movie, both have expressed quite big reservations and scepticicism about it (the usual things about the budget, trailer, bike, the involvement of La Roux etc etc - I've long been fighting a losing PR battle with them "It'll be good, trust me").

With any luck I'll be dragging along at least 5 or 6 other people opening weekend, and I know a few more who will probably be going to see it off their own back. However it turns out, I'll be going to see it at least twice, and pre-ordering the Blu Ray.

[Steve Green]

Oh, BTW there are a few more boarders namechecked in the film, according to Alex...

[dweezil2]

Oh, BTW there are a few more boarders namechecked in the film, according to Alex...

That's cool to hear!

Thought he was a really nice bloke and the film obviously means a lot to him personally. Great that they're namechecking so many of the boarders! Who will get lucky!?

[JOE SOAP]

Heh, no probs.

[JOE SOAP]

^that's for danmarr

[Steve Green]

Not sure If I should say or leave it as a surprise - Bit worried I might misremember...

[hazy efc]

yayyyy i can post in regards 2 the new DREDD movie  sep couldnt come quick enough the movie looks fantastic from seeing the trailer and with news that it could end up a trilogy if it makes at least 50 mil in the states im even more happy sooo for any americans out there 1st off we all love ya in europe so 4 get spiderman batman or any of those and go an watch DREDD if ya dont im gunna have 2 hop on a plane and c it in states aswell as here lol DREDD IS BACK

[COMMANDO FORCES]

I remember two names who get a name check but there might have been a third, now how exciting is that for the forum!
Not only will you go and watch the film multiple times to see or hear your name but the fun that cinema will have when these individuals jump out of their seats and scream will be fantastic 

[dweezil2]

Not sure If I should say or leave it as a surprise - Bit worried I might misremember...

Nah! Leave it as a suprise Steve! It won't diminish mine or anyone elses excitement regarding the film either way. It looks phenomenal! 

[dweezil2]

I remember two names who get a name check but there might have been a third, now how exciting is that for the forum!
Not only will you go and watch the film multiple times to see or hear your name but the fun that cinema will have when these individuals jump out of their seats and scream will be fantastic 

[blackmocco]

From SFX.co.uk:

Dredd scriptwriter Alex Garland has revealed that the film needs to earn at least £50 million at the box office in the US to make a sequel possible (which seems perfectly achievable if you ask us).

...if the reports we've heard from people who've already seen the film are true, the film should blast through the $50 million barrier. There's a really good buzz about this one...

http://www.sfx.co.uk/2012/07/09/what-dredd-needs-to-earn-to-make-sequels-possible-and-what-we-might-see-in-them/

I'm on the fence. $50m doesn't sound like that much, relatively speaking, but what do we expect DREDD's opening US weekend to be? I'm anticipating less than half that. I guess it all comes down to word of mouth and critical reception. DREDD ain't gonna be a big opening weekend smash - but it could stick around in the charts to become a bit of a slow burn success - if word of mouth is positive...

This isn't written in stone but the Hollywood bean-counters tend to project the average movie's box-office as follows: Opening weekend's box office will drop 50% the following weekend and again by 50% the following weekend after that and that follows through until the theater run is completed. That's how your average movie tends to perform and why the studios are so fixated on the opening weekend. That, obviously, doesn't follow for movies like Titanic or The Avengers, etc which hit huge opening weekends and then continue going gangbusters.

I'm no expert but I would think if Dredd does $25-$30 mil opening weekend it may well crack the $60 mil by the end of its run. Hard to say. That's big numbers we're talking for a hard R movie. I'm cautiously optimistic...

[darnmarr]

Coming from a position of ignorance RE films/budgets/sequels, I just thought I'd ask why the cinema money is so much more important than the DVD/blu-ray cash? When I saw Highlander in the cinema, myself and my cousin were the only ones there but  yet there was a sequel; Blade Runner had terrible box-office too...

[James Stacey]

I guess its changed in the intervening 20 years or so since those, and its not like Blade Runner got a sequel

[darnmarr]

Might do yet: anyway my question being, 'is there any critical amount of subsequent success on disc that could greenlight a sequel for a film that didn't do that well at the box-office?

[IndigoPrime]

Coming from a position of ignorance RE films/budgets/sequels, I just thought I'd ask why the cinema money is so much more important than the DVD/blu-ray cash?

DVD/Blu-Ray (etc.) is long tail, to some extent, and often through fans buying again. I guess it's more of a risk to do a sequel (which in most cases are pricier and/or less successful) on the basis of money you might make back later, rather than a more likely return directly from the cinema. With something like Dredd, I just hope it doesn't bomb. ~$80m worldwide would be fantastic, but even that would probably only be a break-even figure.

I guess we'll see come September.