The Political Thread

[COMMANDO FORCES]

And sadly that will be the same come the next General Election, when Corbynladen destroys the Labour party, as he's determined to take it away from the centre ground and those are the voters that he needs.

[IndigoPrime]

When Corbyn wins, here's hoping he starts offering some policies with actual details, rather than grudges. We know a lot of what he doesn't want and doesn't like, and what he's opposed to, but too often he's light on details about what he's actually do. That all said, if a GE was called tomorrow, the Tories would likely increase their majority by at least 30 seats; and Labour across the board remains arrogant enough to think it can somehow win the UK back alone, despite Scotland being lost, Wales being a scrap with PC, and the LDs and Greens taking up to 15% of the vote away from Labour across England. If only there was some way of, I dunno, unifying with some kind of pact!

[Michael Knight]

I do agree With you Commando Forces. Whilst i do like Corbyn and think he a decent man, I dont think he ever be elected.
Personally I blame Blair/Campbell for wrecking Labour Party with spin and their toxic legacy. I honestly believe in years to come when more dirt comes out about Blair's time in Number 10 he will undoubtedly be viewed as the most corrupt Prime Minister this country ever elected. Without even taking Iraq/Afghanistan into the question.
That man outtorried the Tories with some of his policies/sleaze

[IndigoPrime]

The depressing thing is that the 'centre ground' has shifted so far right in the past two decades that even moderate socialism is now branded as extreme. Even the notion of renationalising the trains — something that 50% of Tory voters agree on when asked — was in Labour's 2015 manifesto considered a bit too radical, so they fudged the proposals. (And God forbid anyone consider things like an actual living wage or something like the citizens wage proposed by the Greens — that's apparently outright madness, for... reasons.)

[Professor Bear]

And sadly that will be the same come the next General Election, when Corbynladen destroys the Labour party, as he's determined to take it away from the centre ground and those are the voters that he needs.

It's easy to claim that the electorate is right-leaning when their only choice is one of two right-leaning parties, but you'd still have to explain why the Blairites have lurched completely to the left in the last two weeks, why Theresa May's first speech to the country dangled the "left-leaning" manifesto that everyone says lost Ed Miliband the 2015 election, and how the SNP took Scotland on a largely left platform.

[Frank]

he's determined to take it away from the centre ground and those are the voters that he needs.

It's easy to claim that the electorate is right-leaning

Do you see what you did there, Pro?

It's bizarre that neither Tories nor Labour look likely to go into the next election proposing any serious kind of electoral reform.

The only people who can't see the Labour party will never win a majority again are currently running the Labour party, but the Tories are headed down the same road.

If the twattery of Brexit has proven anything, it's that the people who actually turn out at elections can't really be accommodated under the broad definitions of left or right anymore.

[IndigoPrime]

The Tories are fine. No problems for them winning a majority.

[Frank]

The Tories are fine. No problems for them winning a majority.

Except for the last election, when they had a majority of just 12, And the election before that, when they couldn't win a majority. And the three elections before that, when they couldn't win a majority.

Apart from that, they're fine.

[Professor Bear]

I am in two minds about the Tories' chances in a general election: right now they have a very good chance of winning, but the further away it happens from right now, the more chance for something to go seriously tits-up for which they can't pass the buck.  Brexit currently looks pretty harmless, its after-effects easy to brush off as a temporary blip, but once Austerity MK2 starts kicking in there's going to be a lot of pissed-off people out there blaming the Tories alone for their misfortunes.

he's determined to take it away from the centre ground and those are the voters that he needs.

It's easy to claim that the electorate is right-leaning

Do you see what you did there, Pro?

I do.  I should have made it clear I was continuing IP's point about the right being rebranded as center ground by mainstream politicians and the media - New Labour are neither centrist nor moderate.

The only people who can't see the Labour party will never win a majority again are currently running the Labour party, but the Tories are headed down the same road.

Clive Lewis' recent comments made it clear that Labour are aware they need to form some sort of coalition with other progressive parties, though he didn't mention the recent voting boundary changes making it a necessity, he seemed to focus more on the fact that the party held more common ground with Caroline Lucas than with Hillary Benn.

[Frank]

I am in two minds about the Tories' chances in a general election: right now they have a very good chance of winning, but the further away it happens from right now, the more chance for something to go seriously tits-up

Yeah, May won't fuck anything up, but events ... Political parties never really win elections, they're just waiting for the electorate to feel bad enough about the incumbents they decide they might as well give the other lot a go.

Everyone who's just spent 25 quid to decide which idea vacuum leads them into the 2020 election could have spent it on quinoa instead, for all the difference it will make.

[Old Tankie]

The biggest danger to the Prime Minister are the 120-plus Tory MPs who voted for Brexit.  If she doesn't deliver that, those 120-plus could make the country ungovernable.  There was an example of what they could do when they stopped Osbourne's proposed so-called emergency budget in its tracks.  I'm certainly not taking any more notice of opinion polls.

[Tjm86]

Personally I blame Blair/Campbell for wrecking Labour Party with spin and their toxic legacy. I honestly believe in years to come when more dirt comes out about Blair's time in Number 10 he will undoubtedly be viewed as the most corrupt Prime Minister this country ever elected. Without even taking Iraq/Afghanistan into the question.

For me this was the reason I didn't vote labour for the best part of a decade.  New Labour made an insane amount of mistakes, many of which will take decades to undo / run out.  A recent conversation with a young colleague (in their twenties) brought home the truth of what you are talking about though.  A lot of us are part of the generation that grew up in Thatcher's Britain and saw some of the worst the Tories are capable of.  The same is true now of his generation.

They grew up under a Labour government that appeared beholden to neoliberalism, to the city of London, to power for it's own sake.  The drippings of a complicated and often incompetent tax credit system to subsidise a low wage economy didn't help.  They watched as the financial services industry was allowed to run rampant and un checked, once again causing international damage.  Granted the Americans bear the largest blame here but the British banking system didn't help matters.  They believed the lie that labour mismanagement of the economy is the reason for Austerity Britain because it fits with their experience. 

The same dissembling that brought us Brexit (the careful positioning of complex statements with simplistic soundbites) brought the Tories back into power and then decimated the liberals who foolishly believed that they could do a deal with the devil and escape unchecked.  His generation has now unfortunately been convinced of the truth of the situation in the same way that ours have been convinced of the truth of ours in the nineties after 18 years of Tory Britain.

The only decent thing that has come out of the post Brexit Labour coup is a recognition that they need to think a bit more carefully about who they front as leader.  All three (before Eagle dropped out) have at least made the pretence of appealing to the social democratic tendency of the membership.  Whether Paratrooper Smith truly believes it remains to be seen.  Having listened to a lot of what he has said over the years I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt although his voting record doesn't always help him.  Corbyn has the right instincts but his leadership skills leave an insane amount to be desired for my money. 

The party membership need to reflect on the fact that the PLP need a leader that they can form around but at the same time the PLP also need to reflect on the fact that they need a leader that is representative of the membership, as to be honest they should be as well.  This disconnect is going to be the greatest challenge to the labour party over the next few years.  At the same time, as you say, they need to reflect on the damage of Blair's legacy.

[IndigoPrime]

The Tories are fine. No problems for them winning a majority.

Except for the last election, when they had a majority of just 12, And the election before that, when they couldn't win a majority. And the three elections before that, when they couldn't win a majority.

Apart from that, they're fine.

Last I saw, it's 2016, not 2015, 2010 or 1997. Labour is in meltdown. The LDs have collapsed. Scotland is basically just SNP. As things are NOW, the Tories are fine, as they are for the foreseeable, especially if the boundary changes happen.

[The Legendary Shark]

"He felt as though he were wandering in the forests of the sea bottom, lost in a monstrous world where he himself was the monster. He was alone. The past was dead, the future was unimaginable"

   George Orwell, 1984

[Professor Bear]

I still hold out hope that Trump will kill us all before things take a turn for the worse.