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Messages - shaolin_monkey

#811
Off Topic / Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
20 November, 2019, 04:14:59 PM
Here's the transcript of the other one Sharkey, entitled 'Moving past barriers to change':


Cook: How do you respond to people who don't accept the science of climate change?

Attenborough : *long sigh*  [Sharkey, I wish you could see Attenborough's face at this point.]

Lewandowsky: One crucial question that society is confronting is how to deal with the expressions
of denial that are so common on the internet and on blogs, and the answer to that, I think,
is that it is absolutely essential to be driven by data, by research, by empirical findings
and to look at what the data in cognitive science and psychology, what they tell us
about the problem. One of the reasons why it's very difficult to change the mind of
people who are committed already to rejecting the science—one of the reasons that's
very difficult is because you're challenging their world-views if you are trying to change
their belief about climate change.

Hamilton: In my experience, it's really hard to convert real believers on anything, that
you will just type yourself as an unreliable source if you contradict the things they really cherish.
Lewandowsky: people reject the science in the first place because it is incompatible
with their deeply held world-views. Most people who reject climate science do so because they
fear not for the planet but for the interference with the economy, with the free market.

Kerr: some people are not interested in either evidence or reason, it's just ideology. So
there's an ideological or personal psychological barrier there.
Sherwood: There's also a lot of people that have already made up their mind as almost
part of their identity, that they're not going to accept it, and those people you kind
of can't do anything with.

Attenborough: It's very difficult if they won't take notice, if they won't believe the
figures, what can you say? It seems to me an extraordinarily offensive thing to do,
to say to a scientist "your figures are wrong."

Alexander: There are some people who, I think, the more you give them facts the more they
will hold onto the beliefs that they already had. So, in those cases, I'm not really sure
what benefit there is in having a conversation, because it's not actually a conversation.

Lewandowsky: Now if you then, as a researcher or communicator, present them with more evidence
that climate science is real, then chances are that the recipients of the message are
digging themselves deeper into their existing position and actually believe even more strongly
that that is not the case. We have the experimental data to show that in a lot of different circumstances.

It doesn't just have to be climate science. It's whenever people's world-views are
at stake, then presenting them with corrective information can have a so-called "backfire
effect" of making them believe the mistaken information even more strongly.

Ecker: And if you have a belief that is really central to your identity, so if you have a
really strong belief, then you will defend it. You're defending your identity, who you
are. If someone comes along and challenges it, what happens is that you're not going
to be convinced by what they say because they're challenging your world-view. You're actually
more likely to become even more extreme in your belief.

Lewandowsky: So that is another reason why engagement with people who deny climate science
is inadvisable because you're just strengthening and reaffirming their belief if you're not
careful with your message.

Ecker: And also you need to accept the fact that there's people out there who will not
change their mind whatever evidence you give them, but also, consider the fact that that's
just a very small minority. Most people, you can talk to them and they might change their
mind if you present your case.

Lewandowsky: In order to do the one thing that matters, which is to mitigate climate
change—in order to do that, you don't have to change the minds or opinions of five
percent of the population. It's absolutely unnecessary, politically unnecessary. It is
a waste of resources to try and communicate or convince people who reject scientific evidence
because the reason they reject the scientific evidence is not because they've evaluated
the evidence rationally. It is because they are motivated to reject it by other variables

England: Max Planck came out and said look, you know you can't convince your opponents
of an idea, that it's true. Unfortunately you just need to teach the next generation
as they come through the system, how this physics works.

And they'll grow up understanding it, and that's cool.

Hamilton: In any survey or any election campaign, you know there's a huge group in the middle
that is not committed and that can be swayed in the—these are the independent voters,
the uncommitted voters that you hear so much about in the run-up to an election.

Donner: There's kind of like a climate change swing-voter, right? There's people in the
middle that, depending on the conditions, and those conditions might be a change in
temperature, but they might be other current events as well. Whatever else is going on
in the news. They may say 'oh, you know what, I am concerned' or 'I am worried about climate
change now' whereas the next year they may not be. We call them "climate change swing-voters"
but as far as I understand there are other papers that have done analyses like this and
have found that people that are sort of in the independent part of the political spectrum,
so neither Left nor Right, those are the ones whose opinions are most likely to change with
temperature.

Ecker: So focus your attempts to convey your message on the majority of people who are
willing to engage in conversation.

Trenberth: When I try to deal with the public in general, I'm really trying to reach, I
suppose what you might call the large uniformed masses. Maybe that's a derogatory term, but
you know, many people are just not very well informed about climate change. The small percentage
of the deniers, I'm not going to convince them.

Lewandowsky: It is important to talk to the other 90 percent of people who are not denying
that the climate is changing, and it is important for them to know, first of all, that they're
in the vast majority themselves. They also have to know that there is a vast consensus among
scientists because it turns out that telling people about the consensus makes them more
aware of the science and it makes them more accepting of the science.

#812
Off Topic / Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
20 November, 2019, 03:44:03 PM
Quote from: The Legendary Shark on 20 November, 2019, 02:33:22 PM

Thanks, SM. Unfortunately, this old 'phone won't play YouTube videos. Can you point me to similar text versions?

Here's the first on consensus, taken from the online course.  I'll try and get the other one in a mo.


Imagine you're driving towards a bridge. Have you ever pulled over, taken out your
phone and started browsing blogs about bridge building, to decide whether the bridge was
safe to cross? Of course not. You trust in the engineers who built that bridge.

That's how we form our views on complicated issues. Rather than master a whole body of
knowledge, we use a mental shortcut. We rely on experts and trust them to do their jobs.
Or failing that, we trust that their colleagues would catch their mistakes before anything
goes wrong.

Now in a perfect world, everyone would be aware of all the lines of evidence for human-caused
global warming. We would know all the human fingerprints that are being observed across
our climate. But life is busy.

We have to pay the bills

Get the kids (or ourselves) off to school...

And keep track of all the characters on Game of Thrones. So most of us use the mental shortcut
of expert opinion.

In the case of climate change, the experts are climate scientists who are actively publishing
peer-reviewed climate research. Because the body of evidence is so strong, there's overwhelming
agreement among climate scientists that humans are causing global warming. How do we know
the level of agreement?

In 2009, climate scientist Peter Doran and Maggie Kendall Zimmermann at the University
of Illinois at Chicago surveyed Earth scientists.

The survey asked the scientists if humans are significantly changing global temperature.
When the survey results came back, they found that not every group shared the same opinion.
Different groups had different levels of agreement about climate change.

For example, the group of scientists with the lowest agreement that humans were causing
global warming were economic geologists, at 47%.

The next highest were meteorologists at 64%. However, what they found was that the higher
the level of expertise in climate science, the stronger the agreement about human-caused
global warming.

For the most qualified group, climate scientists actively publishing climate research, there
was 97.4% agreement that humans were significantly changing global temperature.
A year later in 2010, another study took a completely different approach to estimating
the level of consensus. William Anderegg at Princeton University and his colleagues collected
a number of public statements from scientists about human-caused global warming, including
as many dissenting statements as they could find.

Then they narrowed their focus to only the scientists who had published climate research
in scientific journals.

They found the same result as Doran did the previous year. Among publishing climate scientists,
there was 97 to 98% agreement that humans are causing global warming. And just like
Doran, Anderegg found that scientists convinced of human-caused global warming had published
substantially more climate research than what he termed "unconvinced scientists".
More recently in 2013, I led a team of researchers at Skeptical Science in conducting the most
comprehensive analysis of climate research to date. We looked at climate papers from
1991 to 2011.

This amounted to over 12,000 papers. We found that among papers stating a position on human-caused global warming...

97.1% affirmed the consensus. So three different studies, using three different methods, all
found overwhelming scientific agreement. But that's not the only evidence of a consensus.
Virtually every scientific organisation that has made a statement about climate change
has endorsed the consensus.

Note the social diversity in the organisations listed. They come from the fields of geophysics,
chemistry, meteorology, physics, oceanography, and geology.

The diversity of the consensus also applies to countries. The Academies of Science from
80 countries have endorsed human-caused global warming. Not a single Academy of Science in
the world has rejected the consensus.

Many lines of empirical evidence tell us that humans are causing global warming. Similarly,
a number of independent sources find overwhelming scientific agreement about human-caused global warming. We see it in surveys of scientists, in analyses of published research and in the
diversity of scientific organisations all over the world.

There is one myth about climate change which argues that there's no scientific consensus,
because 31,000 scientists have signed a petition rejecting the consensus position. The petition
is a website called the Global Warming Petition Project.

However, the only requirement to be listed in this petition is an undergraduate degree
in any kind of science.

According to the US Department of Education, over 10 million people earned a science degree
between 1971 and 2008. So while 31,000 people signed this petition, that's actually only
0.3% of Americans with science degrees.

And most importantly, only 0.1% of those 31,000 are climate scientists.
So the claim that the Global Warming Petition Project disproves the scientific consensus
is a myth that uses the technique of magnified minority. This involves making the petition
seem like a large number, when in reality it represents a tiny percent of the scientific
community.

This myth also uses fake experts. This involves conveying an impression of expertise - 31,000
scientists - when 99.9% of the signatories aren't climate scientists.

Now it's crucial to reiterate that science is decided by evidence, not by popular opinion.
However, it's also important to recognise how the general public think about complex
issues. They rely on the opinions of experts. So we need to be aware when fake experts are
being used to confuse people about the level of agreement among real experts.
#813
Off Topic / Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
20 November, 2019, 12:45:54 PM
I will add quickly that you are right to be worried about a whole bunch of other stuff - overuse of pesticides, water sources filled with hormones, deforestation, natural resources stripped and destroy to match our consumption, plastic getting into the sea and our very drinking water (totally with you on the plastic bottles issue), destruction of flora and fauna all over the world...but a lot of those things are also linked to climate change.

If we don't get on top of the CO2 issue, all these other environmental issues will be irrelevant, because our species will quite simply not survive a 4 degree average global temperature increase over the next 50 - 100 years, and we're already pushing the 1.5 degrees mark now. 
#814
Off Topic / Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
20 November, 2019, 12:39:50 PM
Sharkey, some things you say I agree with, but there are two I definitely don't.

Please watch this video from Prof. John Cook.  It's only about 6 mins long.  It describes in detail where the 97% consensus figure comes from, and where logical fallacies are used to exploit folk to think the level of agreement among climate experts is an issue. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAqR9mLJrcE


This is from a course I am studying currently on edxonline, which is all about the psychology of man-made climate change denial.  The 97% figure comes from actual scientific studies, not politicians, not fossil fuel think tanks, not people with an agenda.  The studies were first begun by Naomi Oreskes, author of 'Merchants of Doubt' (another recommended read - please google it).



The other thing I disagree with is your view on CO2.  The parts per million in the atmosphere (415 PPM currently versus 280 PPM pre-industrial) is DEFINITELY causing problems RIGHT NOW, and it is going to get worse. 

We're past debating this - the evidence is all around us.  Ice caps melting, fires in California, Russia, Australia, Greenland, and in the Arctic, floods in the UK and Venice, record breaking heatwaves all over Europe year after year after year, water stress - water running out in places like Chennai and Cape Town, crop failures from climate stresses in the US and Europe etc etc etc.

I could go on and on and on.

I appreciate there's all kinds of confusing information about this on the internet.  Please bear in mind there's a fossil fuel-funded propaganda war going on out there, trying to downplay or poo-poo the problem.

Please do this FREE course from Prof. Michael E. Mann on edxonline.  He's basically the no.1 professor and communicator on climate science.

It's about 8 - 10 hours of study, and explains very clearly why CO2 is a problem, and how we have been aware of it's atmosphere-warming properties for over 100 years.

Please take the course, and update your understanding:

https://www.edx.org/course/climate-change-the-science-and-global-impact


I'll finish with this 7 minute vid, again from the course I am on at the moment.  It includes words from Sir David Attenborough, amongst others, and explains why challenging the myths spouted by climate change deniers is so difficult:

https://youtu.be/Hsllpg5jW7c


#815
Games / Re: Last game played...
19 November, 2019, 12:35:32 AM
That new Star Wars game is pretty good.
#816
Film & TV / Re: #SPOILERS# BBC War of the Worlds…
19 November, 2019, 12:34:36 AM
Ah well, we'll always have the Jeff Wayne musical and the Edginton/D'Israeli graphic novel.

I also hear the David Tennant straight read of the original novel on Audible is rather excellent.
#817
Film & TV / Re: The Expanse
19 November, 2019, 12:32:35 AM
Quote from: Jim_Campbell on 18 November, 2019, 08:26:09 PM
Ooh. Hello.

Season 4 trailer.

Roll on Dec 13th.

I AM SO EXCITED!!!   :D
#818
Film & TV / Re: The Mandalorian
19 November, 2019, 12:31:57 AM
I am really fucked off that i haven't been able to see any episodes yet clearly there is a lovely [spoiler] baby Yoda-species alien[/spoiler] in one episode. How has this been spoiled for me? Cos every other pic on FB is of the cute little fucker!

DAMN YOU DISNEY!!!!
#819
Off Topic / Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
19 November, 2019, 12:26:42 AM
This article is a good overview of what we can expect from the climate crisis over the next decade.

Buckle up folks.

https://www.businessinsider.com/climate-change-in-the-next-decade-2019-11?r=US&IR=T
#820
Film & TV / Re: BBC War of the Worlds…
18 November, 2019, 12:30:10 AM
That's a crying shame. I enjoyed the first episode.
#821
Off Topic / Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
17 November, 2019, 07:22:40 PM
US Coal power plants are beginning to find the cheaper natural gas and renewable energy sources too economically challenging. A big one has shut down this week.

https://qz.com/1749023/two-of-americas-biggest-coal-plants-closed-this-month/
#822
Film & TV / Re: The Mandalorian
16 November, 2019, 11:46:30 PM
It's all just bloody rubbish. Watch all of the Akira Kurosawa films and just add lasers.
#823
Off Topic / Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
13 November, 2019, 01:27:00 PM
There's a programme on BBC 4 this Thursday at 9pm called 'Climategate: Science of a Scandal'. 

It discusses how covert fossil fuel interests hacked the emails of a two scientists, one in the UK and one in the US (Michael E Mann, who I have studied under), and proceeded to cherry pick quotes to cast doubts on their data and scientific method. 

It promises to be a fascinating look at something climate change deniers are citing TO THIS DAY (either deliberately as bad agents sowing doubt, or just because they are folk who have swallow the crap from the bad agents), despite having been fully debunked way back when.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000b8p2



If you want a bit of an oversight into the whole thing, this will get you up to speed quickly:

https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/debunking-misinformation-about-stolen-climate-emails

#824
Off Topic / Re: It's a bit warm/ wet/ cold outside
10 November, 2019, 01:37:29 PM
‪This is a cracking article that highlights the push of responsibility onto individuals and away from multinationals and politicians by bad agents.‬

‪It also discusses why it is ok to push for improvements from within the system you're stuck in.‬


‪ https://blog.usejournal.com/in-defense-of-eco-hypocrisy-b71fb86f2b2f‬
#825
Film & TV / Re: The Walking Dead Season 10
10 November, 2019, 11:05:53 AM
This series is getting exceptionally tedious. Negan is great, but that is it.

And yeah, whiny platitudinous music in a show about the zombie apocalypse can piss right off.