Dredd - Box Office

[Michaelvk]

Here's what I reckon.. First week it'll do sorta okay. Then word of mouth will make weeks 2-3 a lot busier, and so on and so forth. It'll definitely break even quickly, and I'm pretty sure it'll bring in a tidy profit. Not sure if it'll do as well in the States as it'll do in Brit-cit, but that's because of the relatively unknown source. That said, several American mates of mine are eagerly anticipating the movie.. I still reckon, however, that it'll make its biggest bucks in DVD/Bluray sales.. Especially 'cos nobody checks ID's at HMV..

[Richmond Clements]

Wikipedia states 12A was brought in for Bourne. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_British_film_certificates#2002.E2.80.932009

I stand corrected!

[Fisticuffs]

But then almost directly under that it says a local council was the first to actually use the 12A rating for Spiderman, just before Bourne actually released. So everyone's right.

[Keef Monkey]

Yeah, I seem to remember the 12A was down to one particular council pressuring them because they were receiving so many complaints that parents couldn't take young kids to Spiderman.

In the long run it's probably caused more complaints than it saved, Woman In Black was the most complained about movie of last year, with the main complaint being it's too scary for under 12s. How parents can walk into a movie they've been clearly told isn't suitable for under 12s and then feel entitled to complain about it being unsuitable for under 12s is beyond me. That certificate is one of the worst things to happen to cinema in my opinion.

[Goaty]

You all know what to do? Spread the drokking word! 

[IndigoPrime]

Here's what I reckon.. First week it'll do sorta okay. Then word of mouth will make weeks 2-3 a lot busier, and so on and so forth.

Does that ever happen in the US? Won't it just be pulled from cinemas if it's not doing well?

Not sure if it'll do as well in the States as it'll do in Brit-cit, but that's because of the relatively unknown source.

On a relative basis, perhaps, but in a literal sense, I sincerely hope it takes a ton more cash in the USA than the UK, given that even hits here don't tend to rake in enough cash to greenlight a sequel to anything much.

Generally, I think Dredd will rely quite heavily on good reviewsand publications not bottling it (I'm looking at you, Total Film and Empire, with your inexplicably middling reviews after loads of positive press, which have already put off a few Brits I know), and a large dollop of luck. I'm going to say it'll box $40–$60m worldwide, but subsequently have very strong rental/shiny disc sales. I'd love to see it hit $100+m worldwide though.

[blackmocco]

Here's what I reckon.. First week it'll do sorta okay. Then word of mouth will make weeks 2-3 a lot busier, and so on and so forth.

Does that ever happen in the US? Won't it just be pulled from cinemas if it's not doing well?

Not sure if it'll do as well in the States as it'll do in Brit-cit, but that's because of the relatively unknown source.

On a relative basis, perhaps, but in a literal sense, I sincerely hope it takes a ton more cash in the USA than the UK, given that even hits here don't tend to rake in enough cash to greenlight a sequel to anything much.

Generally, I think Dredd will rely quite heavily on good reviewsand publications not bottling it (I'm looking at you, Total Film and Empire, with your inexplicably middling reviews after loads of positive press, which have already put off a few Brits I know), and a large dollop of luck. I'm going to say it'll box $40–$60m worldwide, but subsequently have very strong rental/shiny disc sales. I'd love to see it hit $100+m worldwide though.

Indigo, it's not unheard of. Titanic didn't exactly explode at the BO on its first weekend but then it went gangbusters once people started telling other people how much they enjoyed it. I would say it's a little unlikely that'll be happening with DREDD but good word of mouth means it'll get at least strong follow-up weekend takings. I would think it needs to make #1 here in the States its opening weekend to make a dent in people's heads. The reviews are surprising people here so that's something. I think they'd expected it to be an empty-headed noisefest and it seems to be registering there's something more here.

[radiator]

I think Dredd will rely quite heavily on good reviewsand publications not bottling it (I'm looking at you, Total Film and Empire, with your inexplicably middling reviews after loads of positive press, which have already put off a few Brits I know)

The Empire review especially read like a 4 star review - I think they actually described it as 'good, often excellent'. I guess a lot of people are just going to look at the review scores and jump to conclusions though. A shame.

[Steve Green]

Yeah, I really don't get the thinking behind it.

Maybe they have a star shortage.

[radiator]

I would think it needs to make #1 here in the States its opening weekend to make a dent in people's heads.

Can't see that happening, though stranger things have happened I guess.

Does that ever happen in the US? Won't it just be pulled from cinemas if it's not doing well?

It'd have to be doing really badly - like Keith Lemon: The Film badly - to get pulled after a single week though wouldn't it?

[Michaelvk]

It'd have to be doing really badly - like Keith Lemon: The Film badly - to get pulled after a single week though wouldn't it?

There's still hope that that'll happen..

[MR. ELIMINATOR]

Can't see that happening, though stranger things have happened I guess.

Then again there isn't much competition, I think it could quite well take the no. 1 spot if it opens well in UK first. Combined with the great buzz that will surely attract enough people out of curiosity on it's opening weekend.

[radiator]

Looper and (sigh) the new Resident Evil arrive a week later though, they'll more than likely do a fair bit of damage to Dredd's second week take, which is a shame. Though Looper does actually sound quite interesting to be fair.

[Michaelvk]

I think everyone's a bit fed up of yet another resident evil.. Surely they should now be going straight to DVD?

[norse_sage]

Here's what I reckon.. First week it'll do sorta okay. Then word of mouth will make weeks 2-3 a lot busier, and so on and so forth.

That is unfortunately not how it works, not for wide releases anno 2012. Weeks 2 and 3 are never, ever busier than week 1.

What Good Word of Mouth means is that the week to week decline is less steep than "normal" for a movie of its type. Lets say that the baseline Weekend-1-to-weekend-2-decline for a genre movie of this kind should be 50 %.
Good word of mouth means that it will drop 30 to 40 % instead of 50 %, not that attendance will increase.

That is why so much importance is given to opening weekends, in cases of extreme high or low figures you can make the call wether any given movie is a flop or a hit once you've got the opening weekend numbers. If the opening weekend is between these extremes, one has to wait and see how WOM will determine numbers over a matter of weeks before one can make a call. This is what I think will happen with Dredd.
I doubt it will open so high that 50 mill is a lock.