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Author Topic: Day of Chaos 2: a.Covid-19 thread.  (Read 63102 times)

TordelBack

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Re: Day of Chaos 2: a.Covid-19 thread.
« Reply #1260 on: 23 December, 2020, 02:06:35 PM »
There is no more depressing feeling than agreeing with the Prof 100% on the Politics-and/or-Covid thread.  At least when you find yourself nodding along with the Shark, there's a air of boundless optimism to embrace.

IndigoPrime

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Re: Day of Chaos 2: a.Covid-19 thread.
« Reply #1261 on: 23 December, 2020, 03:08:38 PM »
I think we need to be a little cautious on the “they knew about this in September” line. However, they unarguably did know about this in early December, yet still blazed ahead with the Christmas relaxation bullshit messaging. The suggestion is when Johnson was presented with an “apocalyptic” scenario for February, he finally started listening.

Professor Bear

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Re: Day of Chaos 2: a.Covid-19 thread.
« Reply #1262 on: 23 December, 2020, 04:13:23 PM »
TB, I am the most optimistic person I know.  At least half the time, anyway.

Funt Solo

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Re: Day of Chaos 2: a.Covid-19 thread.
« Reply #1263 on: 23 December, 2020, 04:55:23 PM »
There's a tendency to endow one's enemy with supernatural powers when your agenda is to paint them as preternaturally competent at being evil.

An article in (on?) the Independent has the new variant being identified in October from a sample taken in September.

The COG-UK Showcase Event is TOO LONG TOO WATCH, but the sections on mutant strains demonstrate that there's a huge difference between recording data, interpreting data, summarizing data and then (at some point further down the line) distilling that data and providing it (if relevant) to a politician, who will then interpret it further and so on.

So, not quite as easy as "detected in September - the government KNEW ALL ALONG!" Except, you know, in the febrile, hoary fiction of the dinner table. Or the keyboard.
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JOE SOAP

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Re: Day of Chaos 2: a.Covid-19 thread.
« Reply #1264 on: 23 December, 2020, 05:25:27 PM »
Their power is that they are in power and everyone else isn't, and their particular compentency to gaslight a nation with whatever information is available, is well observed.

I believe hammer met nail in a recent Rafael Behr article as to how BJ operates.



https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/15/boris-johnson-pandemic-britain-christmas-covid
« Last Edit: 23 December, 2020, 05:29:16 PM by JOE SOAP »

Professor Bear

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Re: Day of Chaos 2: a.Covid-19 thread.
« Reply #1265 on: 23 December, 2020, 10:16:16 PM »
This is why the Dead Cat is such a great strategy for Tories: it's entirely reactionary, and by its nature requires no skill to pull off - even if they fail and everyone talks about their transparent ploy at misdirection, that's just as good.

IndigoPrime

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Re: Day of Chaos 2: a.Covid-19 thread.
« Reply #1266 on: 24 December, 2020, 10:15:35 AM »
So I was wondering about two things now we’re in tier 4: schooling and shopping, given that the former is a massive vector locally and the latter is something that’s going to cause problems in terms of access.

Schooling, judging by the current rules, isn’t set to change at all. Guidance still suggests secondary pupils mask up only in corridors, because presumably COVID doesn’t actually hang around in the air, and secondary pupils no longer mix, thereby making for a bubble that can be anything up to 1.5k in size. Also, luckily, primary kids don’t get COVID, and so there are no extra measures; this will come as a shock to a friend who informs me 15% of his kid’s class were confirmed until the contact tracing shut off for schools.

Actually, I lie about there being nothing new: schools are “promised” more fast testing capabilities, so that’s OK then. A sensible solution that the govt won’t take: keep all schools shut for at least one extra week.

Shopping is an odd one. My parents have been doing click and collect from a local supermarket that has its shit together. Collections take place at the far end of an open air car park. There is no interaction with other people and plenty of hand sanitiser. It is very safe. But it’s also over LA boundaries and not the most local option. So I asked a councillor: should my ageing parents continue to shop there (an approx. 4.5 mile drive) or is that now illegal? The details, natch, do not permit a specific travel limitation.

His response was a wonderfully entitled “well, I just order locally from local firms because I’m a Tory and local firms are great, even if you have to pay more”. OK, thanks. That answers… nothing. He did at least admit it would be safer for my parents to continue using click and collect rather than braving the cramped, smaller and usually understocked supermarket in their home town. But this shouldn’t even be something you have to question — you certainly don’t if you’re living in Spain or France, because they stipulate the specifics. You know precisely how many times a day you can leave your home and how far you can travel.

Meanwhile, the number of local truthers continues to skyrocket. Lots of people running with “I don’t see why we should lockdown when the survival rate is over 98%”. Yes, let’s forget the survival rate is heavily reliant on hospitals being able to help those in need, the random nature of the degree in which symptoms affect people, the long-term effects of COVID that a large percentage of people are still very unwell months later, and the increasingly high likelihood that you can catch a form of this more than once. Well, that and 2% of the UK’s population being well north of half a million people.

I thought with Brexit the UK had plumbed the depths of human arrogance, selfishness and idiocy; apparently not.




Jim_Campbell

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Re: Day of Chaos 2: a.Covid-19 thread.
« Reply #1267 on: 24 December, 2020, 10:37:30 AM »
I thought with Brexit the UK had plumbed the depths of human arrogance, selfishness and idiocy; apparently not.

I spent the most depressing afternoon in recent memory (ie: this week) on a local community FB group I help admin. I posted a suggestion that the government's Christmas relaxation of Covid restrictions was not 'following the science' and posted the joint editorial from the BMJ/HSJ practically begging them to reconsider.

The vast majority of responses were along the lines of "Well, you don't want to believe what the government tells you" and, when I pointed out that they obviously hadn't read either my post or the linked article because I was doing the exact opposite of that, the responses were: "Well, you can't believe what doctors say, either."

So who, then, are they believing? It appears to literally be 'something my mate Dave saw on YouTube'.
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shaolin_monkey

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Re: Day of Chaos 2: a.Covid-19 thread.
« Reply #1268 on: 24 December, 2020, 10:40:49 AM »
Emergency statement from Independent SAGE.

Immediate lockdown is required.

Independent SAGE is made up of some of the best epidemiologists, doctors, and health professionals the U.K. has to offer.

If they are saying an immediate lockdown of the entire U.K. is needed right now, and Xmas be damned, I believe them!

Their full statement attached.

https://twitter.com/independentsage/status/1342051746307338240?s=21


Quote
NEW: Independent SAGE met last night to discuss the worsening crisis. The govt admits Tiers 1-3 cannot contain the virus. We fear Christmas Day mixing in context of new strain will create 1000s of dangerous super-spreading events.

The entire UK needs to go into Tier 4 *TODAY*.

 The situation across the UK, particularly
 England and Wales, is rapidly worsening.
 Evidence is now strong that the new variant of
 Covid-19 (B117) is significantly more infectious
 than previous strains. This is making a bad
 situation worse. Cases in all tiers are rising,
 even where the variant is still rare. As Matt
 Hancock announced on 23 December, Tiers
 1-3 are not able to contain spread of the new
 variant. Dr Jenny Harries confirmed that the
 new variant is also present across the UK and
 its dominance is spreading outwards rapidly
 from the South East across England. Modelling
 from the London School of Hygiene and
 Tropical Medicine estimates that the new
 variant will account for 90% of new cases by
 mid-January. Christmas Day mixing of
 households indoors for prolonged periods of
 time, as allowed in tiers 1 to 3 in England and
 across the devolved nations, sets the scene for
 thousands of super-spreading events. In the
 context of the new strain, this is incredibly
 dangerous.

We believe that the government must
immediately:
1. Rescind a relaxation of the rules and ban
household mixing on Christmas Day (apart
from exemptions and pre-existing bubbles)
2. Place all regions of England in Tier 4 to
suppress spread of the virus as far as possible
while scientists continue to learn more about
the new variant. The devolved nations should
bring forward their own national lockdowns
from Boxing Day to 24th December. Tier 4
should include enhanced travel restrictions.
3. Put in place an emergency plan to enable
safe education in January and February.
4. Focus all efforts on mass roll-out of
vaccination.
The inability to control COVID-19 is leading to
emergence of variants with increasing
transmission potential. The new variant and
the potential emergence of others requires a
complete rethink of all mitigation strategies.
Independent SAGE will release a more detailed
plan for control and suppression of the new
variant over the weekend.[\quote]


Tjm86

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Re: Day of Chaos 2: a.Covid-19 thread.
« Reply #1269 on: 24 December, 2020, 11:36:52 AM »
So who, then, are they believing? It appears to literally be 'something my mate Dave saw on YouTube'.

This is where the likes of NewsThump are terrifyingly accurate in their satire.  Some of their articles hit the nail on the head so hard it goes right through the wood!  Couple of examples;

Scientists urged to seek advice on new Covid strain from bloke off Twitter

‘I’m not letting a vaccine alter my DNA’ insists 3rd generation criminal with family history of depression and coronary heart disease

I don’t trust that vaccine, insists man whose last line of blow was cut with cattle dewormer

 University of Life’s Epidemiology class of 2020 leaps into action

Then you have politicians like Priti Patel telling the nation that the government has been "ahead of the curve" throughout the pandemic.

So I guess I can see why people are responding as they do!  :o

Funt Solo

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Re: Day of Chaos 2: a.Covid-19 thread.
« Reply #1270 on: 24 December, 2020, 05:44:16 PM »
Lots of people running with “I don’t see why we should lockdown when the survival rate is over 98%”.

That's been a persistent refrain since the outset - people are just failing to understand a percentage when applied at the scale of a population. I think even if you shook them by the shoulders and said "Dear God! 2% of the population is going to die!", they'd still respond with "Oh well, not too bad then! What's all the fuss about?"

The more successful we are at containing the spread of the virus, the more that plays into a theme of "what's all the fuss?"

My neighbor stopped for a chat the other day, and I popped back inside to get my mask - and he said "No need - I've not got Covid!" Which is more of that "common sense" nonsense. He doesn't know if he does or not. He doesn't know if I do. That's what the fucking mask is for! And the distance. And...

I've also been a little bewildered about how pathetic the government message around Xmas has been: isn't it possible to say "I know you like Xmas and hugs and shit, but grow a pair - it's a global pandemic". Instead of "Xmas & hugs are so important that you should all meet up and catch Covid", which seemed to be the Boris-approved play. No Blitz spirit anymore? Did it run out?

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shaolin_monkey

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Re: Day of Chaos 2: a.Covid-19 thread.
« Reply #1271 on: 04 January, 2021, 02:42:29 AM »
If you haven’t seen this latest episode of BBC’s Casualty yet, I urge you to do so as soon as you can.

Casualty, Series 35: Episode 1

www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000r0dl

IndigoPrime

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Re: Day of Chaos 2: a.Covid-19 thread.
« Reply #1272 on: 04 January, 2021, 09:27:43 AM »
Having wrestled with the decision all weekend, mini-IP is staying home today, because our Tory majority council is to gutless to do anything beyond “relaying concerns from parents” to the DfE. Yeah, great. Our COVID rates are shooting up, are in some cases beyond the numbers in London, and our local hospitals are both on code black. But let’s send the kiddies back to school!

Also: fuck Labour on this for not taking a stand and playing to the crowd and headlines. The shadow education minister has spent time slamming the Tories for the chaos, but not the policy. Starmer and Labour leaders are arguing for a November-style lockdown—which didn’t work—versus the March one, stating schools should be the last thing to close. Depressing to find not only that we are ruled by ideological idiots, but that there’s a different stripe of ideological idiot waiting in the wings. (The Greens got it right in Brighton, for all the good it will do them.)

Trooper McFad

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Re: Day of Chaos 2: a.Covid-19 thread.
« Reply #1273 on: 04 January, 2021, 03:31:27 PM »
Well that’s Cal-Hab back in what’s essentially full lock down till February and maybe longer. So plenty of time to finish some more projects. Though with my big birthday around the corner I should be vaccinated by May 🤞🏻.
It’s still shite as that means grassroots football is still further delayed just as I was getting the boys back up to speed since the last lockdown 🙁
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Batman's Superior Cousin

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Re: Day of Chaos 2: a.Covid-19 thread.
« Reply #1274 on: 04 January, 2021, 04:38:23 PM »
BBC reckons that we’ll end up in Tier 5, aka Total Lockdown yet again!!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-52634739
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