"Democracy's not for the people…"

[Jim_Campbell]

Sounds like we might be getting a July general election.

I'll confess to not having a huge amount of enthusiasm for Starmer's version of the Labour party, but right now I just want the Tories gone. At this point, it feels like literally anyone would probably be an improvement...

(You don't have to register with the Guardian to read the linked article — just click the "I'll do it later" button to read the whole thing.)

[Colin YNWA]

Wow Sunak is really pinning all his hopes on Southgate pulling off a surprise and the nation being on a high he can geg in on ... at least that's the only hope I can see for him (fingers crossed)

[IndigoPrime]

Looking forward to the election slogan of "Vote Tory: please forget the past 14 years – because inflation has now dropped a little bit!"

[Trooper McFad]

Wow Sunak is really pinning all his hopes on Southgate pulling off a surprise and the nation being on a high he can geg in on ... at least that's the only hope I can see for him (fingers crossed)

That's what I was thinking- probably better odds of riding that wave than hoping the economy will improve dramatically before November- however if it goes tits up and Scotland win well I can only but D-ream 😂😂😂

[nxylas]

I want the Tories gone as well, but I'm a little perturbed by polls that show Labour getting such a huge majority that they are effectively without opposition. That doesn't seem likely to end well. Though I do like the idea of the Tories being pushed into 4th or 5th place, with the opposition, such as it is, coming from some combination of Lib Dem, Green, SNP and Plaid MPs.

[Barrington Boots]

It's emblematic that he made that announcement in the pouring rain.. what a clown.
"Things Can Only Get Better" indeed.

[The Legendary Shark]

Which of the parties is for stopping Israel? They might be worth a vote.

[IndigoPrime]

I do like the idea of the Tories being pushed into 4th or 5th place

I don't see it happening. My guess is we will see something similar to 1997 (Lab 418 / Con 165 / Lib 46 / SNP 6 / Plaid 5), albeit probably with fewer Lib Dems and probably 4x SNP. And as much as I'd like to see the Tories wiped out, I'm not sure an arrogant Labour with a colossal majority will be ideal either. People have short memories. I'd hope they will recognise that this isn't forever. It wouldn't mean the Tories will be out for a generation. After all, in five years we'll have gone from Johnson's Tories having an 80-seat majority to Labour having much the same.

My hope remains some kind of electoral reform. But I suspect that won't happen and we'll instead see the Tories win in 2029 on a vote share well below the combined Lab+LD+G vote. Still, I'll be happy to see these Tories gone, even if what's about to replace them doesn't exactly thrill me.

[Jim_Campbell]

Wow Sunak is really pinning all his hopes on Southgate pulling off a surprise and the nation being on a high he can geg in on ... at least that's the only hope I can see for him (fingers crossed)

It's damage limitation — that's it. Inflation's going to be down, Reform have dropped back in the polls (on top of a pretty poor showing in the local elections), the wheels haven't come off Rwanda yet (and they will), and peak 'small boats' is probably going to hit in August/September when the weather's at its nicest and the Channel is calm.

Add to that, the fact that once we're into October/November bad weather will depress the Old Vote™, which is always bad for the Tories, and this is probably as good as it's going to get for the Conservatives if they want to avoid complete annihilation at the ballot box.

Also... there are probably some immigration figures coming soon that will show a sharp drop. This will be due to the Tories pulling arguably their most cynical move yet — they recently proudly trumpeted the fact that overseas care workers were coming into the country at their lowest rate for years, they've already massively reduced the number of foreign doctors and nurses and are targetting overseas students as well, threatening to bankrupt many of our universities.

Essentially, they've coldly and calculatedly fucked our care, health and further education sectors to manufacture a significant drop in immigration numbers. They know that the only way an incoming Labour government can shore up the damage is to get more overseas doctors/nurses/care workers/students back into the country... at which point they can jump and say "See? We told you they'd be soft on immigration!"

They really are the most reprehensible shower of fuckers.

[Funt Solo]

They really are the most reprehensible shower of fuckers.

They really are.

[The Legendary Shark]

They really are the most reprehensible shower of fuckers.

They really are.

Amen.

[nxylas]

I do like the idea of the Tories being pushed into 4th or 5th place

I don't see it happening.

There are polls that show it happening, though. I've seen a couple that predict more Lib Dem and SNP MPs than Tories in the next parliament. This was before the SNP's recent troubles, though. It would be bitterly ironic if the Tories turned out to be the main beneficiaries of that, becoming the official opposition due to a collapse in the SNP vote.

[Jim_Campbell]

It would be bitterly ironic if the Tories turned out to be the main beneficiaries of that, becoming the official opposition due to a collapse in the SNP vote.

Well, secondary beneficiaries — Labour is probably going to pick up a shitload of Scottish seats, which will contribute to what is likely to be a thumping majority, but, yes, it's likely to leave the Tories still as the official opposition. Which is kind of a shame, because the SNP becoming the official opposition at Westminster would have been hilarious.

[IndigoPrime]

Given that Lib Dem polling has flatlined or is going backwards and they got an almighty scare at the locals in Wokingham, I'm going to be pessimistic until the 5th on Lib Dem chances. I imagine they will gain seats. I don't think we'll see Kennedy-era numbers. My guess is the general bounce in Labour's fortunes will lead to a lot more people in seats near where I live nodding along with "vote Labour to get rid of Tories" rather than looking at local factors. That won't be enough to save the Tories in, say, Winchester or maybe Guildford. But I imagine Redwood will retain Wokingham and there will be other local seats where we'll see eg Con 35 / LD 30 / Lab 20.

I hope I'm wrong. Personally, I'd love to see a real breakthrough for a liberal party, and one that could hold Labour to account on things that matter while being grown-up on things they agree on. But short of the Reform vote holding up and the Tory vote being low and an awful lot of tactical voting from Lab/Lib voters, I just don't see it. Hence my thinking that this will be closer to 1997 than the kind of stuff Electoral Calculus is currently suggesting. (This is currently Lab 472 / Con 85 / LD 50 / SNP 19. Which when you look at the vote shares is a great showcase of the shitshow that is FPTP.)

However, chatting with Stephen Bush on socials a while back, he did point out that the locals gave us insight into how people actually vote vs how they say they'll vote – the the tactical numbers were way off. Lab and Lib numbers were higher than expected (with Libs being the most pragmatic). Green numbers were much lower than expected, suggesting they're becoming more ideological. (Which makes sense in abstract terms, but under FPTP, you sometimes have to hold your nose and pick something you probably otherwise wouldn't, given a real choice.)

[Trooper McFad]

It would be bitterly ironic if the Tories turned out to be the main beneficiaries of that, becoming the official opposition due to a collapse in the SNP vote.

Well, secondary beneficiaries — Labour is probably going to pick up a shitload of Scottish seats, which will contribute to what is likely to be a thumping majority, but, yes, it's likely to leave the Tories still as the official opposition. Which is kind of a shame, because the SNP becoming the official opposition at Westminster would have been hilarious.

Remember the SNP can only get a Max of 57 seats so that would mean the tories only getting 56 or less which would be hilarious but I think they will still get over 100 probably closer to 150.
In Scotland I hope the tories are wiped out and I think the SNP will scrape 30-35 which is only a loss of 13 if they reach the lower end. I think people not invested in Scottish politics like NI don't realise the arguments are slightly different to the majority of England (I don't know enough to comment on Welsh politics)
I also believe that pundits sometimes forget up to 2015 the SNP had single figure MPs (1974 was a high of 11) and that went up to 56! I can't see them ever going down to single figures again but getting half or just over is still a pretty good result in FPTP.
Overall it's Labours election to lose!