Dredd - Box Office

[radiator]

Yep. I think Dredd's best hope is to open bigger than expected, then, through strong word of mouth, stick around in cinemas for a few weeks with minimal drop-off. If it opens at $20m or higher then there's a chance it'll break that $50m by the end of it's run.

It's a huge ask, though. I wouldn't bet on it.

I think everyone's a bit fed up of yet another resident evil..

You'd have thought that after the first one.

[blackmocco]

I would think Dredd needs to open at least $30 mil. Not impossible.

[radiator]

But that's a higher opening weekend than either Total Recall or The Expendables 2, isn't it? 

Seems highly unlikely to me.

Using that back-of-an-envelope space maths for working out box-office - dropping 50% each subsequent week after release - then $26m is the magic number.

[The Bissler]

I've been thinking though - where did this perception that higher certificate = lower box office come from?

I was wondering recently why it is that all of the superhero films of late have been certificate 12A (back when I was a lad, films which were aimed at children were always U or PG).  I realised that this is no mistake, the film producers do not want the certificates to be U or PG.  Why?   Because when the kids want to go and see the latest superhero movie, they can't go without an adult.  So instead of selling one ticket for a U or PG film where a parent doesn't have to be in attendance, the 12 film is guaranteed to sell two. 

I wouldn't even be surprised if there are films which were originally written for a younger audience, but that the producers add a bit of nastiness just to harden up the rating.  Real Steel certainly felt like that - all the way through it's pretty much a PG film, but then there is one scene where [spoiler]Hugh Jackman is beaten to a pulp in front of his young son[/spoiler].  It was a scene which didn't feel like it belonged in this film, and I believe was cynically added to avoid the dreaded PG certificate.  And what about all those superhero films where there is one instance of "strong language"?  Can there be any justification for that other than to get the 12 rating?

On the other side of the coin, I also feel that there are a few films which should be 15 certs which are being slightly toned down to get the more lucrative 12 cert.  When I saw "Hanna" I thought that film was conceived as a 15.  There is a fair amount of nastiness, and some scenes in which you know what is about to happen but you don't see it because it cuts away.  Worse still, the BBFC are quite happy with images of violence so long as there isn't blood and battle injury.  What kind of message is that giving children?  That violence is a quick, clean, and relatively painless experience?  Not exactly helpful.

Sorry for going all Mary Whitehouse but this is something that infuriates me about films today, and sorry also for going slightly off-topic. 

I'm delighted to see that the producers of Dredd have rolled the dice and are going to give us the Dredd we all know and love, one which will show violence in all it's technicolour ugliness.

[norse_sage]

I would think Dredd needs to open at least $30 mil. Not impossible.

It's not impossible, but damn unlikely.
If it did though, it would be an instant certified hit, and a sequel would be greenlit the following Monday.

What it can not do is open to significantly less than 20 mill.

[IndigoPrime]

Worse still, the BBFC are quite happy with images of violence so long as there isn't blood and battle injury.  What kind of message is that giving children?  That violence is a quick, clean, and relatively painless experience?  Not exactly helpful.

Quite. Lots of that in the most recent Batman flick. Well, that and about an hour of unnecessary footage.

[Diminished Responsibility]

I hope this film does well,  and I'm quite confident that it will.  I'm going to the cinema with 8 other people, most of whom haven't read 2000AD or any other comics for that matter, I haven't been to the cinema with a large group of people since LOTR. And its not just because I'm a massive fanboy who won't shut up about it, there's genuine interest in Dredd, it's a British film, about a British comic character, I think it will do well here. I also think it will do well worldwide, much like Mad Max, which only took about $9 mil in the US, but $100 mil worldwide.

I'm not concerned about hitting the $50 mil target in the US, I think a sequel is inevitable because, as many reviews have pointed out there's great potential in the source material.

It may take longer for a sequel to get the green light if it doesn't hit the target Alex suggests, but I think it will happen. It's pretty clear from the reviews that Judge Dredd, when done well has great potential.

I'm not so sure about a TV series though, wouldn't that mean we lose Urban and Thirlby?  I'm not sure I would want that to happen.

[radiator]

I'm not concerned about hitting the $50 mil target in the US, I think a sequel is inevitable because, as many reviews have pointed out there's great potential in the source material.

It may take longer for a sequel to get the green light if it doesn't hit the target Alex suggests, but I think it will happen. It's pretty clear from the reviews that Judge Dredd, when done well has great potential.

Reviews don't matter for anything unless they get people into the cinema. If the film doesn't make money in the US, then they won't be able to find a US distributor for the sequel, and that means no sequel.

[JOE SOAP]

I think it will do well here. I also think it will do well worldwide, much like Mad Max, which only took about $9 mil in the US, but $100 mil worldwide.

$9 million with inflation is about $28 million these days. That's an exceptional return for a film that only cost about half a million to make.


Dredd is a very hard film to predict in terms of success.

[IndigoPrime]

I'm not so sure about a TV series though, wouldn't that mean we lose Urban and Thirlby?  I'm not sure I would want that to happen.

That would depend on how those actors want their careers to progress. These days, there's plenty of TV that has exceptional production values, starring actors who've previously had decent roles on the big screen.

[Michaelvk]

If there would be a TV series, I'd hope it'd be a smaller, 6-8 episode season, as opposed to the 23 episode, milked dry kind you get.

[Diminished Responsibility]

Reviews don't matter for anything unless they get people into the cinema. If the film doesn't make money in the US, then they won't be able to find a US distributor for the sequel, and that means no sequel.

The Raid got picked up for a remake with only $4 mil US box office, granted that's a good return on its $1 mil budget, but it's definitely down to how the film is perceived as having potential that it's picked up at all, because a US remake is going to cost at least 3 times its US box office to produce.

Also Punisher, how many times are they going to remake that particular franchise?

$9 million with inflation is about $28 million these days. That's an exceptional return for a film that only cost about half a million to make.

Fair point, but for Mad Max II they gave it a much bigger budget for a sequel that hit the market about 2 years later and it was a much better return. Isn't that because of potential?

Dredd was a hard sell, Stallone and Cannon tainted the project 17 years ago, and that stigma is still felt. People may not have seen Judge Dredd, but everyone in the US knows who Stallone is, and can probably list the films that flopped badly as well as the ones that succeeded. Look at the negativity on IMDB just six months ago, even the trailer was met with a resounding 'meh' online. But look at how its perceived now, the potential in the source material is there, and its been proven that a high quality special effects heavy sci-fi movie can be made on a modest budget. Dredd may struggle at the US box office because of the 95 film, but a sequel certainly wouldn't have that problem.

That would depend on how those actors want their careers to progress. These days, there's plenty of TV that has exceptional production values, starring actors who've previously had decent roles on the big screen.

Thirlby and Urban have both done TV before, and Lena Headey certainly seems able to get a few movies out even with Game of Thrones ongoing, not that she's likely to turn up in a Dredd TV series!  I would be a bit worried about Dredd changing hands, so unless Alex and team are involved... I dunno, I just want the lot of 'em working on a sequel, TV or otherwise. I don't want it to change hands really.

[MR. ELIMINATOR]

Lionsgate have seemed pretty confident with this one, considering it's a low budget 18 I was very surprised at the amount of promotion for it. I would guess that they would be willing to risk it with another one even if this doesn't do as well as hoped. But I suppose that's just more wishful thinking.

[MattJW]

Frankly, with so many action/sci-fi fans out there, it will be odd if such a well-reviewed and 'buzzy' film as Dredd fails to at least get a decent turn-out - despite the R/18 rating.

I'm going to stick my neck out and predict a US box office take of: $67 million.

And a total worldwide take of: $119 million.

Slay 'em, Dreddy!

[NSFTM]

looking at the buzz and some not so terribly scientific investigation.. it will take at least 16.80(plus booking fee)